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Scamp
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August 7, 2008 - 11:37 am
debt = future money.
This is the first time in history that current generation is stealing money from the next generation.
Can you live with that ?
Scamp
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August 7, 2008 - 10:18 am
Here you go :
… that the CPI be structured more like a cost-of-living index, requiring that the way it accounts for long-lived assets or durable goods be changed. This way, the CPI would capture only the cost of consuming owner-occupied housing services and not recognize the investment dimension of owning a house.
Scamp
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August 7, 2008 - 10:10 am
elkam wrote:

"Please learn your own economics : Housing costs are not in the CPI. End of story, this is an absolute, just look it up before you post nonsense like this."
Now I'm confused.
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/6401.0Explanatory%20Notes1Jun%202008?OpenDocument
Like I said, Housing costs are not in the CPI. What they mean with 'housing' is probably the energy costs to warm up the house. House prices AND interest paid are NOT.. I repeat.. NOT. in the CPI.
Scamp
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August 7, 2008 - 9:21 am
ErikH wrote:
Here are some interesting statistics, issued by RP Data and based on ABS statistics:
First, Australian population change is bigger than ever before (incl. going all the way back to 1789) due to both peaks in net immigration and births:

Add to that that the size of the average household is projected to decline from 2.6 in 2006 to 2.3-2.2 in 2006 and the pressure increases.
Second, the number of new houses/units coming on to the market has been reducing (the graph doesn't make it very clear, but I believe this is completions per quarter not year!):
http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/09640/561899/Dwelling+completions+-+ORIG.gif
So according to RP Data the supply-demand balance (based on a study by the Commonwealth Treasury) is as follows:
http://www.vision6.com.au/download/files/14347/562072/Underlying+demand+graph+-+ORIG.gif
And so they conclude that all the fundmentals are in place for future growth which they predict is likely to start again by end 2009… what is not covered in their article is the issue of affordability nor are the 900,000 empty dwellings mentioned.
I think the changing demographics can apart from driving prices up, maybe also push for a faster change in the type/size of properties that people buy to help reduce prices e.g. more high density. As for the empty dwellings my gut feeling says there is something fundmentally wrong with those numbers and that we will not see most of those properties (re)appear on the market all of a sudden, but I haven't looked into the data so this is more of a hunch…
ok, come on, scamp, tell me this is all rubbish and house prices will crash and Australia is set up for utter demise…
Births are real nice. Have you ever seen a 1 year old baby buy a property ? No.. ? Ok , then we will leave the births out won't we ? Deaths on the other hand… that leaves 1 house AT LEAST ( usually 2 or 3 ) empty for sale / rent.
Immigration is made up of temporary visa's. Those visa's expire, people go back. Plenty of Visa's resetting every year, those people leave the country. Then there's the people emigrating away from Australia. Only very few permanent visa's are given out this year, the rest is all temporary, student visa, etc etc.
Scamp
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August 7, 2008 - 9:01 am
yarpos wrote:
Scamp wrote:
yarpos wrote:
CPI is driven by 90 different classifications. housing (rents and mortgages) is just one of them and not the single key driver of inflation.
BTW inflation isnt that high, 4 and a bit given inflated borrowing global costs and elevated fuel costs couldnt be called disaster.
Hi Yarpos,
I wasn't talking about CPI, I was talking about inflation. Houseprices aren't even IN the CPI, which is why you 'think' inflation is only at 4%. If oil prices and house prices and all the other high costs were taken up in the CPI , you'd see CPI of 10% or more. ( a lot more )
cost of housing (rents, interest) is in the CPI actually, as is transportation related costs including fuel. Its a weighted basket of items as none of us spends all our income on these items (however much we bleat) . You can make up your own number if you wish, why stop now.
Please learn your own economics : Housing costs are not in the CPI. End of story, this is an absolute, just look it up before you post nonsense like this.
Scamp
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August 7, 2008 - 8:59 am
House prices are just overpriced. That's all. People all over realize this now, they see people going bust because they overleveraged themselves : They don't want to make the same mistake.
Lower houseprices are good for the whole country.
Mackar : about your comments on the concessions etc. They only apply to FHB's. And those have been priced out a LONG time ago. Only 7% of home sales are FHB's. The rest are investors / second home buyers etc.. They don't get the FHB benefits. The fact that FHB's have been priced out also means that no new 'blood' ( aka , money ) can come into the loop. The investors are now basically fighting eachother. FHB's are ( have to ) wait on the sidelines for 40% pricedrops. It will only get worse as banks will require more and more deposits , which few FHB's have. ( about 7% of FHB's have deposits… the rest burns it on plasma tv's , subaru impreza's and nokia mobiles ).
Scamp
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August 6, 2008 - 6:21 pm
harb wrote:
ummester wrote:
Tumbarumba is still overpriced.
How do you figure that out ? The average worker could easily afford to buy there on less then a years income. How is that overpriced ?
Does the average worker earn 300.000 AUD$ ?
The average houseprice in Tumbarumba is 300.000. Some are way over that.
What do you mean, overpriced ?
Scamp
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August 6, 2008 - 6:12 pm
mackar wrote:
do the property analysts have a second agenda??
Yes. Although some are honest. But certainly not BIS Shrapnel. Funny you mention them, because they are actually the worst of them all.
Scamp
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August 6, 2008 - 10:28 am
harb wrote:
Is this prediction coming from the same guy who gave the last tip about 2 more rate rises before Xmas ?
We have had 1 rate rise already, and it's still 4 months till Xmas. Plenty of time for another rate rise.
Be happy if you don't see the other rate rise with current inflation levels. Then again, I guess the economic climate was SO bad that even I was an optimist to think there was enough leverage left for that ( what should have been a correct ) rate rise. Apparently things are going worse than I though. If a few rate rises bring Australia's economy to a complete halt ( which is what spruikers are saying now ), then I was being too optimistic.
Scamp
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August 6, 2008 - 10:05 am
ItalianDragon wrote:
Scamp wrote:
ErikH wrote:
Well… Rudd does speak fluent Mandarin, doesn't he?
Back onto topic, I found the following article on housing prices quite interesting: http://www.realestate.com.au/doc/review/july08/housing-prices.htm
Thanks , very interesting reading. It's nothing new but it's the first time banks agree that the housing market is overvalued. I posted this on GPHC.
Hi Scamp, I tried to contact you by private message but it says you don`t accept messages.
I`d love to have a chat with you, any way we can have it?
Thanks
I'll enable private messages.
Scamp
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August 6, 2008 - 9:59 am
tuggerwaugh wrote:
hey scamp…
by the sounds of it as soon as interests rates do go down you will have no credibility left on here at all…you might just have to retire to that deep dark hole where you come up with all these dark predictions….good luck with that
I never said interest rates won't go down. I said they wouldn't go down this month. I never said there would not be a property boom either ( just in case you start to bring that up ).
In fact : Yes, interest rates WILL go down ( probably halfway 2009 when Australia gets into recession ). There WILL be a next property boom. ( probably in 2012 , when this mess has been cleared up ).
That doesn't mean that I say that in 2012 the houseprices will be higher than they are now, please don't misread my posts, read them carefully. It's more something like :
house price in 2007 : 500.000 ( the top of the bubble )
house price in 2011 : 300.000 ( oh my god… houseprices crashed )
house price in 2012 : 340.000 ( the next boom )
house price in 2018 : 500.000
house price in 2020 : 700.000 ( the top of the bubble )
house price in 2023 : 500.000 ( oh my god… houseprices crashed )
Could be something like that… ( the numbers are fictional )
Scamp
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August 6, 2008 - 9:51 am
yarpos wrote:
CPI is driven by 90 different classifications. housing (rents and mortgages) is just one of them and not the single key driver of inflation.
BTW inflation isnt that high, 4 and a bit given inflated borrowing global costs and elevated fuel costs couldnt be called disaster.
Hi Yarpos,
I wasn't talking about CPI, I was talking about inflation. Houseprices aren't even IN the CPI, which is why you 'think' inflation is only at 4%. If oil prices and house prices and all the other high costs were taken up in the CPI , you'd see CPI of 10% or more. ( a lot more )
Scamp
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August 6, 2008 - 9:44 am
What do you mean noone knows ? I know.
I have posted all the reasons of why the housing market will crash in a thread called something similar on the Help forum U think. You can't miss it, it's got 25.000 views.
If you are genuinly interested, you will read that whole post. It will take you about a weekend, but you'll be completely up to date. The article was posted in May, when everyone was still a Bull and things would pick up again 2-3 months later ( or so , everyone said ).
Please don't say that 'noone knows'. The fact that you might not understand doesn't mean others with more research or intellect can't possibly understand either. I understand and I know what is going to happen.
compare it with rolling 2 dice. If you roll once.. you might say "there's a big chance that 7 will turn up.. but it could also be another number". The more you throw those two dices ( let's say 1000 times ? ) and you will see that 7 does indeed turn up most. Luck ? no.. just mathematics.
Same happens here. It's maths. The system is a hoax. Everyone is indebted, everything is maxed out… noone can pay… unemployment will now rise, panic will occur. Don't say it cannot be predicted, because I just told you what will happen. Best thing you can do is take the advice and cash up money ( doesn't have to be in cash.. ) and sit the storm out. It could be a long storm, it could be a short, massive hurricane. But the truth is , people who overleveraged themselves in the last few years ( 2006 to 2008 ) will sink.
Scamp
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August 5, 2008 - 2:54 pm
Collette Dier wrote:
Hi I would just like some advice. I have a property which I have lived in for the past 23years. The other person who signed the deeds with me has never lived in the property or contributed anything towards the mortgage, service charges or upkeep but is now demanding half of the profits. is this legal and could he be entitled to half ? I feel I was juped by someone who was a lot older and knew what he was doing. I unfortuntely was a young woman who wanted to better herself and her young child (NOT HIS!!) Will I have to pay out for something he has never contributede too – or is there some justice?
erh.. Justice ?.. lol that was a LONG time ago, girl. Now it's the one with the most expensive lawyer who gets the 'justice' part. Anyway, what do you mean 'the one who signed the deeds with you' ?.. your husband ?
Or someone who paid half for the house ?.. Does he own half of the house ? Which part of the deed did he 'sign' ? …
Best to visit a lawyer I guess.
Scamp
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August 5, 2008 - 12:27 pm
Australia IS the worst case scenario. In every aspect.
Your 'soft landing' won't happen. It's too late for that. Australia should have done something about it during last crisis… now you indeed get a TRIPLE whammy. But not one of the good kind. Crystal ball isn't needed, just do maths, add up the sums, and you get a HUGE negative number that CANNOT possibly be paid back by your 'mining boom'… ( which doesn't exist ).
Other news for you , in case this comes to a surprise to you : We've gone beyond the top of the commodities boom. It's over.. commodities are going down accross the board.. guess what the cause is.. ?
oooh.. wait.. let me look into my crystal ball… yes I see it… it becomes clearer now… yes… it says "… recession…. coming…. your way"
Scamp
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August 5, 2008 - 12:20 pm
do you know WHY inflation is so high ?
It's all the money that Australia printed to finance overpriced houseprices.
The houses are overpriced, THAT is the inflation you guys experience.
Lower houseprices = lower inflation = lower interest rates.
Not the other way around.
Scamp
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August 5, 2008 - 10:11 am
[/quote]
devo76 wrote:
But we do have all the ingredients for one.
Low supply
Wrong. 900.000 empty houses on the market. That doesn't even include the amount of land for sale.
devo76 wrote:
high demand
Wrong again. Poms ( the biggest migrators ) can't sell their houses, they will stay in UK. The upcoming recession will also take demand away. More and more people will migrate AWAY from Australia as they can't make a living and can't pay for the houses. There are more houses being built than houses needed for immigration. Immigration is at 200.000, that means you need 80.000 houses per year. More are built every year than that, EVEN NOW when everything miraculously 'thinks' that there are no houses being built at all. Wakie wakie !
devo76 wrote:
rising rents
Wrong again. Rents are DROPPING. Like I have said many times before.
devo76 wrote:
Possible rate cuts soon.
Wrong again.
Scamp
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August 5, 2008 - 9:55 am
ummester wrote:
Here is an article on the (almost) 900000 empty houses.
http://www.hotspotting.com.au/index.php?act=viewArticle&productId=351
Methinks they have mostly been purchased for capital gains (over the past 5 years) but as that is no longer a reality will all find there way back to either the rental market or for sale soon. In some rare cases, the owners may still even sell at a profit if they were purchased long enough ago.
Aha.. I used other data sources and came to 870.000 empty dwellings in my own research.
Thanks for that article ummester.
Scamp
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August 5, 2008 - 9:52 am
devo76 wrote:
Well they sure as s##t didnt go up either.
I never said they would go up. I just was the ONLY one who said "RBA will *NOT* lower the rates this month"
That being said, I think that the best thing RBA can do now is RAISE the interest rates.
The RBA will most probably let the interest rates stay put for a while because they don't want the be the scapegoats. Banks on the other hand will keep raising interest rates.
The whole media hype about lowering the interest rates is a plea for mercy from the overleveraged.
Of the famous words of W. Buffett : We will now see who has been swimming naked.
Scamp
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August 5, 2008 - 9:37 am
Ah yes, the rental prices would go up was the excuse many investors use on this forum. After which I said no they won't because people who can't sell their house will put it up for rent instead ?… This would actually drive rental prices AND house prices down ? here you go :
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24076249-5013951,00.html
Quote:
Mr Christopher’s research, which is based on online rental listings and data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, indicates that compared to last year most cities are showing a rise in available rental properties.
“In Melbourne and Sydney, it seems the downturn in the real estate market is actually providing more rental properties as vendors withdraw their property for sale and rent it instead,” he said.
Mr Christopher said Sydney had over 19,500 vacant rental properties in June, up 9000 on the same time the previous year, while Melbourne had 9450 vacant properties up 1800. (See a full capital city breakdown below).