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Scamp
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@scamp
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October 6, 2008 - 10:23 am
The explanation : You buy a house during a housing bubble, don't do anything to it, don't even put tenants in it.
Wait 6 months, sell for 50.000 more.
That's how it works, there's nothing more to it. If you want to make yourself believe you had anything to do with it you could paint it white or whatever, reorganize the garden but that's all just jokes.
The house prices in bubbles always go up, just like shares in sharebubbles ( .,net bubble )
So, just buy a random house anywhere , doesn't matter where, and sell it in 1 year for double the price.
Or perhaps you do some research and figure out that this bubble has burst and many people will cry on the streets for money. Mrs Palmer : You're about to get the best advice you ever got in your life : STAY AWAY FROM PROPERTY.
Cherish my advice, read it again and again, and cherish it. Put it on a post-it on your mirror so you see it every morning. In 2 years you will thank me for giving you your best advice in your life.
Scamp
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@scamp
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Post Count: 297
October 6, 2008 - 10:16 am
Can you say cheese ?
Hint : Look at the red line, then think back when the depressions / recessions were.
Then, think about what happens to houseprices in those depressions / recessions…
It doesn't take a genius to figure out what is about to happen to the property markets.
There are plenty of other charts ( sold houses = 0 , offered houses = 2400 etc.. )
I'm tired of pointing out I am right. This chart is my last gift to you. If you don't believe me, then feel free to buy property. I won't feel compassion when I buy your investment property at 50% less than you paid for it, sorry.
Scamp
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@scamp
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Post Count: 297
October 2, 2008 - 11:12 am
How the people on this forum have changed. When I posted ( about 6 months ago ) that buying would be suicide , they all said "you can always buy, property always goes up". Now that it's too late they realize their mistake they made 6 months ago. Property will crash 50% within now and 3 years.
By that definition, a bargain must be at least 50% cheaper than what you think it's worth now.
People live in a bliss , in a dream , in a world of endless credit. That's all come to a halt now, people, businesses, banks are going bankrupt. What you should be doing is sell all your crap to people on this forum who still think they can 'make a bargain' and then buy 3 houses for that in 3 years, if by then you still think Property investing is a good thing. ( in time, and this won't take long, people's opinions about property will change from 'oh my god that's the best thing in life' to 'oh my god you bought a house ? Just hope that you don't go bankrupt then'.
Scamp
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@scamp
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Post Count: 297
October 2, 2008 - 11:04 am
asking price 369 ? and you think 14k is lowball ? haha… you really are new to this game are you ?
Offer 300k and you will get it for that price easily. There's panic on the real estate markets now, and everyone wants out. If you think you made a lowball offer you should see my lowball offers, and people better take me seriously otherwise I walk. If people are late for an appointment they can suck up their sale, I walk.
Lesson 1 : take no shit from real estate people : They're all weasels.
Lesson 2 : Don't waste anyone's time. Don't waste your own time , but also don't waste the RE and the sellers time.
Lesson 3 : Lowball offers are anything 30% below asking price. Anything within 10-20% is considered a 'normal' offer. If you offer 5% lower the real estate agent will laugh in your face after getting rid of it to you.
Lesson 4 : Rent. Don't buy when prices are about to crash.
Lesson 5 : Forget about buying for a while, enjoy life and don't worry about buying a house. Owning a house offers very few benefits unless you can REALLY easily afford it. In Australia , this means that any new FHB's will be worse off for the next 20 years from now.
Good luck, stay out of property.
Scamp
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@scamp
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October 1, 2008 - 8:15 am
Build up a deposit, wouldn't be surprised if you need a 20% deposit on your mortgage soon.
Credit is tightening, houseprices are tumbling ( already dropped 10% in perth and 30% in some area's in Sydney ) but that's just the start. In 6 months you will be able to buy a lot more for the same cash. That also gives you time to build up a little deposit.
Scamp
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@scamp
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September 30, 2008 - 10:24 am
If you earn 30K you can afford a home of MAXIMUM 110.000 AUD$.
Please stay with 'momie' for a little longer, you really don't want to burn your little designer hands on this crisis.
Bush in 2002 : "Poor people should be able to live in a house just the same as rich people"
Bush in 2002 : "I have told Fannie and Freddy to lend more money to poor people so they can buy a home"
Bush in 2008 : "Oh fuck , our economy is completely ruined, what the fuck happened ?"
Monkey say , monkey do. Then monkey realize that poor people maybe cannot afford a home after all.
Scamp
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@scamp
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September 26, 2008 - 6:42 pm
One trick you can use if you don't like the law or the council is you can drill a little hole in the tree ( 1 cm diameter is enough ) and poor some oil in that hole. Another way to kill a tree is to strip the bark all the way round ( doesn't need to be a lot, as long as it's a complete 'ring' ( 5 cm should be more than enough ). It will die off and if you trim it before it dies it will still 'be there' but your view will improve greatly.
Either that or you call the council. Mind you, if you call them, you might be waking up sleeping dogs…
Scamp
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@scamp
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September 25, 2008 - 8:26 pm
No.
Scamp
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@scamp
Join Date: 2008
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September 24, 2008 - 8:15 am
Wealthyjvd :
Positive gearing = more income in rents + tax benefits than you pay on mortgage and serviceability
Cash-Flow gearing = more income in rents than mortgage repayments and serviceability ( repairs etc etc )
Negative gearing = less incomg in rents than mortgage repayments (ie : you need fraud to service the mortgage)
Negative gearing is what will cause Australia to crash.
As a reminder :
– There are more and more rentals available on the market. Some units just won't rent out for over a year already.
– Credit isn't available to any fool anymore. ie : people on 40.000 wages won't be able to buy a 500.000 house anymore. This will be the main reason for a crash by the way
– Interest rates are still around 10% , even though you see '7.99%' everywhere, it's like saying "up to 50% firesales" where you have only 1 item with 50% firesale. The rest is normal priced.
WealthyJvd : Just think about it logically :
Let's assume the average wages are 50.000 gross. Average houseprices are 500.000.
You'd need 550.000 mortage ( costs of buying the house ) that's 55.000 mortgage interest repayments + repayments on the mortgage itself let's say 20.000 per year. That's 75.000 mortgage repayments PER YEAR for an average house.
How the hell can someone on a 50.000 GROSS wages ( 35.000 net ) pay back 75.000 mortgage ?
The simple truth : They can't. They use credit cards, they use family loans, they work 18 hours per day 7 days a week.
Is that what you want to become ?
If not, then stay away from property and invest your 'extra' in banks. Get 10% on your investments per year and you'll live like a king and make more money than with properties.
Remember : In Japan houseprices have been DROPPING 70% total value over 10 years.
That's what is about to happen in Australia : Houseprices dropping EACH year for 10 years long.
You really, REALLY don't want a mortgage of 550.000 AUD for a house worth 100.000 when you could have made 500.000 AUD by investing it in other things ( like banks , after they crashed ).
Be smart, stay out of property.
Scamp
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@scamp
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September 23, 2008 - 8:15 am
Wealthyjvd,
You seem genuinly interested in property investment.
My first tip for you : Do not invest in property now. It's crashing as we speak, and it's about to get a lot worse.
Houses 'worth' 500.000 will sell for 200.000 in 2 years. Don't invest now, don't tie yourself down and don't make yourself a slave of a mortgage, don't ruin your life. That's the first advice.
You might ask yourself , why is a house worth 500.000 now and only 200.000 in 2 years ? And you also wondered how people got 50 properties in 5 years. There are people who have 700 properties and they did it in 8 years, so there's nothing spectacular about the 50 properties. You can even buy 50 properties in a year , and you can even do it without having a job ! Here's the 'secret'
Note : This does not work anymore since the financials crashed : These financials crashed BECAUSE of how it was abused, and it's the reason the houses aren't worth 500.000 anymore, but 200.000.
You buy a house for 200.000 AUD using a 105% mortgage ( you get more mortgage than the houseprice, the extra 5% is used for buying costs ). You now have a house worth 200.000 and a mortgage of 210.000. Then , the next day, you ask a valuation agent to come to your house and you give him 5000 dollars to value your house at 250.000 AUD. You now have a mortgage of 210.000 and a house worth 250.000. ( sounds like magic doesn't it ? ). You can now take out 40.000 'equity' money, which basically is imaginary money that doesn't exist ( you just created it miraculously by paying some guy 5000 dollars ).
You can now use the 40.000 to pay off the mortgage, but also you can use it to finance another house.
So , even if you're homeless, and you don't have tenants, you still can afford the house.
You can do this 50 times, 100 times or 700 times ( like a UK couple did ).
Now you understand why houseprices are so high, it's all the 'virtual' equity money that people used to buy all kinds of stuff, houses, boats, new clothes and holiday trips.
You also understand that the house still is worth 200.000, and not the 'virtual' 300.000
This is how USA and UK financial markets and housing markets crashed. This is also how Australia will crash.
Only difference is Australia's crash will be MUCH bigger than UK and USA crash put together.
Stay out of property… until you can buy for 200.000 instead of 500.000….
Scamp
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@scamp
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Post Count: 297
August 25, 2008 - 8:27 am
Quote:
And 12 months rent paid in advance to the value of $20,000
I must commend you on your very clever spruiking method. I haven't seen it done this subtle before. If you offer $30.000 rental incomes instead, then the calculators on this website will see their profits increase even more. People on this website love calculators. They use all kinds of crappy maths ( they read about somewhere ) which fools them into thinking they make profit on an investment.
These 'property investors' ( they really are just bored housewives ) think utterly simplistic, a bit like this :
calculated LVR with 20000 rental incomes : 20.000 / 369.000 * 100 = 5.42
Now.. see what happens when you offer 30.000 instead of 20.000 :
calculated LVR with 30000 rental incomes : 30.000 / 369.000 * 100 = 8.13
WOW.. now that's some UBER LVR values !.. Wait.. we can do better :
calculated LVR with 40000 rental incomes : 40.000 / 369.000 * 100 = 10.84 !!!
OH MY GOD .. you're CERTAIN to sell your crap to these idiots at those LVR ratio's !!
Man, I should become a marketing manager.. I'd sell fridges to eskimo's.
Scamp
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@scamp
Join Date: 2008
Post Count: 297
August 9, 2008 - 1:09 pm
It's time for me to delete my account. I wish everyone on the forum good luck with whatever they want to do. All the info you need is there. I wish both the investors and the people who wait for better times ahead the very best of luck in their endeavors. I have a new project starting and I won't have time to spend on these forums anymore.
I hope you all got something out of the post.
byebye
Scamp
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@scamp
Join Date: 2008
Post Count: 297
August 8, 2008 - 10:06 am
harb wrote:
AimHigher wrote:
So I say to you all :
Don't poke Scamp!
I know You don't really mean that. Besides, this thread is in the Help Needed !section and if Scamp doesn't need help then who does ?
Wasn't there some ABC reporter on this forum looking for a story not that long ago ? How about a story about a young migrant arriving here from a civilized European country, his grandiose dreams and the culture shock of landing in a banana republic. The daily struggle for survival in a typical aussie backyard, putting up with red-backs and funnel web spiders and the occasional king brown and tiger snakes crawling from under the fibro rented house. Then after a hard day's work renovating a lovely blue asbestos cottage the constant lookout for stingers,jellyfish, blue-ring octopus, sea snakes, sharks and saltwater crocs while trying to cool himself down at the beach in temperatures of 44 degrees plus. Finally when the sun goes down and he goes to bed thinking that he can now finally relax the Encephalitis and Ross River virus carrying mosquitoes come out to play. We could just call it SCAMP, get Michael Caton to host it and it could become more popular then Backyard Blitz and Hot Property put together.
I actually had a chuckle at this one.
Scamp
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@scamp
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Post Count: 297
August 8, 2008 - 9:35 am
mackar wrote:
surely though there is an advantage for analysts to be able to pick the timing of the downturns
as well as the upswings…or else if they can't they virtually become redundant as noone
will have confidence in their opinion in any market… & well… with analysts.. thats all they
have to sell really, …their reputation.
a bit like a burger shop having no burgers… after 1 or 2 visits you don't bother going there anymore.
-not a very good analogy I know, but you know what I mean!!
mackar
I will tell you what the analysts do :
– In good times they will spruik and say how good they are
– In bad times they will blame it on everything else except themselves.
There was even one bank who blamed their bad year results on the WEATHER haha… how silly can you get.
Scamp
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@scamp
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Post Count: 297
August 8, 2008 - 9:33 am
harb,
fixed rates change ALL the time, up and down, EVERY WEEK. It's spruiking from the banks.
I was talking about ( I thought everyone realized this ) variable rates. The fixed loans demand in the last few months halve HALVED.
Ofcourse the banks are competing for the fixed loans now, they need to do silly things.
8.99% fixed loan interest rate…
8.7% savings account…
Can you see the gap closing ? How much lower do you think banks can go , even on fixed rates ?
But again, same happened in the USA. Australia just lags behind 18 months.
Scamp
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@scamp
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August 7, 2008 - 10:56 pm
ummester wrote:
Scamp wrote:
The aged population is solved by immigration. Why do you think Australia is letting all these people in ?
Unless the recession is sever enough and the country can't afford immigration.
I still don't understand why the banks would create so much debt with people who have an average of 15 years life left?
Just say property does go down in the order of 30% and overleveraged Boomers can't pay the bank back before they die, what are the banks going to do?
Have you even kept up with USA news ? That is EXACTLY what is happening in the USA. And it's their demise. Their doom… their financial system is collapsing as we speak.
Scamp
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@scamp
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August 7, 2008 - 8:33 pm
harb wrote:
What do you care about unemployment ?If you can pay cash for your place then the dole money will cover daily expenses and you can spend your days at the beach. For extra cash you can always go fruit picking with the backpackers a couple of months a year .
I can't get dole until I spent 2 years in Australia at least
Scamp
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@scamp
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August 7, 2008 - 2:14 pm
The aged population is solved by immigration. Why do you think Australia is letting all these people in ?
Scamp
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August 7, 2008 - 12:32 pm
because in the end, I will pay for those people's mistakes when I live in Australia from next year on.
Taxes will go up , pensions will go down, pension age will go up from 65 ( or whatever it is in Australia ) to 70, more crime, more homeless, more pressure on 'efficiency' ( Lean / Toyota-style Japanese-style company management ), burglar alarms and fences just to keep the lowlifes away from me and my girlfriend.
Eventually, the answer is either much more taxes, or much higher crime. Neither of them benefits me.
And it will all the be result of the extremely high houseprices.
I already found a nice place where I would like to settle, I can pay cash for a house over there, I'm not too worried.
But this whole recession is going to be more dear to many others than me. Unemployment will rise, that's not good for me either is it. Competition will get more fierce etc..
All because of these 'marvellously high houseprices'. Bah…
Scamp
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@scamp
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August 7, 2008 - 11:44 am
yarpos wrote:
I agree that the cost of the house isnt there, the cost of buying or renting it is
Ok well we do agree then that the cost of housing isn't in the CPI.
the cost of buying = nothing compared to equity / price inflation etc.
I'm not sure rents are in the CPI either by the way. Interest repayments certainly aren't, I'm sure of that.
Not sure of the rents though. But they are low enough and they haven't gone up exponentially like the houseprices. There's a reason rent price is so low : People just cannot afford it ( or don't WANT to afford it.. )
Truth is : Governments and councils have personal gain with high houseprices. They stimulate them.
Banks also have personal gain with high house prices, they also stimulate them.
The screwed ones are : The working class people and everyone who bought properties after 2005.
Although in real terms, you would have to go back to 1998 to have made any profit on housing.