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    mortgage resets are a problem. The fact that it's not visible yet means nothing. Everything takes time.
    The fact that the US dollar has risen has to do with the offselling from hedgefunds as requested by ( amongst others european ) banks. This is done in dollars which will be shed very soon. The dollar is plunging , and will plunge much deeper. The trillions of dollars required for the bailout will make the dollar fall further.

    To think that a lower dollar is good for the economy is, to say the very least, ignorant. Your BHP executives might get more dough but 99% of the people will have effectively lost 30% purchasing power. Mining company shareholders get paid in ozzie dollars. It's a sham to make you think that australia will get rich by a freefalling AUD. Have you gotten a payrise of late to make up for your lost money ?

    If you think USD is a safehaven.. well, I wish you good luck with that

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    C2 : Before 2000 property wasn't overpriced. 16% ? wow.. but you bought at 3 times wages , so you can't compare with today. The problem is that wage to property price is out of sync. This is the first time ever that it happened, and it will be the first time even that it crashes ( see US / UK / Ireland / Spain / New Zealand / France / Australia )

    Please explain this : Why should he buy now at 150K when he can buy it for 100K in a year ?
    And why should he buy at 100K in a year when he can buy at 75K in 2 years ?

    If he starts saving money now while renting he can safely afford to buy in 2 years.

    Anyone who says "be afraid, you will miss the boat" has no idea what they're talking about.
    Noone will miss the boat, there's no boat going for at least a year.

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    C2 wrote:
    SCAMP,

    I think you need to use another example rather than Japan and can you validate the source of your figures as they appear to be highly over exaggerated.   If you can quote the source I can notify them and get them to correct their information.

    Remember : In Japan house prices have been DROPPING 70% total value over 10 years.
    That's what is about to happen in Australia : House prices dropping EACH year for 10 years long.
    You really, REALLY don't want a mortgage of 550.000 AUD for a house worth 100.000 when you could have made 500.000 AUD by investing it in other things ( like banks , after they crashed ).

    Just to clear up your reference to Japan.  Japan had a bubble bust that affected their economy.  This had nothing to do with real estate borrowings but on how Japanese financial institutions lend money to each other and their company groups.  If a company belong to the same group as the bank goes belly up the debt is just written off.  Most banks allow up to 4X the companies worth before any talks take place.

    How about The Economist ?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:EconomistHomePrices20050615.jpg
    Please do some research by yourself. I'm getting bored of serving everything on a silver plate around here.

    C2 wrote:
    Property values:  The reason property values have gone down in Japan and continue to do so is because of the JONES EFFECT.  Basically the Japanese prefer items that are new.  Properties (Land 100K + House 300K) that are 400K when new are approx 300K 10 years later and 200K 20 years later down to around 150K 30 years later.  What actually gets devalued is the house and not the land.  the land still has roughly the same 100K value give or take a 1%.  the house on the other hand has items 30 years old and the Japanese would prefer something new.  What they do next is knock down the house and build another 300K house.  The average house costs for building 10 years ago and today are still the same.  The same JONES EFFECT can be applied to anything of material value in Japan such as cars, TV's, DVD's etc.  Cars that are 10 years old are anywhere between 5-15% of their original value.

    Finally, Japan has no regulated financial laws and lenders can charge rates of up to 100% interest.  Nearly 12% of the population owe money to non bank lenders which have ties to crime groups.  Japan although having the highest saving rate per person also has the highest debt rate per person. 

    You clearly have no understanding of what you are posting. Houseprices aren't made up by the value of what's on the piece of land. It's made up by the piece of land. This explains why a coastal property with nice views will be more expensive than a inland property in a criminal neighborhood, no matter what is on that place.
    I'd gladly buy a Sydney harbor dump for double the price of a McMansion in the Sydney western Suburbs.
    I don't even know why you bring this up it just makes you look silly, please at least do some homework before you say things like that. LAND values go up, not the value of the house. Your jones effect does not apply here.
    The reason that a car is worth 5 to 15% after 10 years ( which  isn't true, try to buy an Aston Martin DB5 for 5% of it's original value, or another classic ) is that the value was originally made up by it's function. After 10-15 years it's a rustbucket and the function is gone and thus it's worthless. I'm amazed that I even have to explain this to you. It's called life expectancy of products. You buy a TV, and the average life expectancy is let's say 10 years, it means it's gone after 10 years, man.. I'm not even going to explain this to you, please go back to school for some basic economics.

    In short : You're talking gibberish.
    The Jones effect.. haha… good one :) I'll need to remember it

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    CHIS wrote:
    Scamp, you sure are a panic merchant. What's it like living in fear? Man up

    I don't live in fear. I have made cash on the housing bubble myself.
    Luckily I didn't invest in shares because I saw that bubble miles away too.
    The ones who live in fear are the ones with mortgages and / or big debts.
    I could retire if I wanted to ( that was part of the plan to moving to Australia )
    And my wealth has increased by 30% thanks to the RBA and declining AUD.

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    Ummester : The reason the RBA dropped by 100 basis points is that they don't want the resetting mortgages to cause a rally of foreclosures like in the USA. ( you remember , I told everyone on here a few months ago that from September 2008 until July 2009 mortgages would reset from their low interest rates of 6% to the 9% interest rates ).

    The sad truth is that this rate cut doesn't even save 200$ for the average mortgage-owners money. In fact, they would have to drop the mortgage rates a whopping 4% (!!) in order to achieve this. The truth is that the RBA miserably tried to make the pain for the resetting mortgages a little bit less bad ( instead of going from 6% to 9%, the resets will reset from 6% to 8%, which is 400$ extra repayments per month ).

    And that is the reason the RBA lowered the interest rates. In the meantime , the AUD is crashing and the inflation is rampant. RBA is in a whole lot of trouble but they have chosen the long way out instead of the short crash. Basically Australia is now guaranteed more pain in the long run.

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    Oh sorry… Is this forum only for people who think houseprices go up ?

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    Get your champagne bottles out guys ! Apparently we should be buying property again !
    Soon your tenant will pay your interest repayments ( erh.. that's 50.000 ) from his 40.000 dollar wage.

    oh.. wait… that's what happened in America. Oh no.. maybe leave your champagne bottles out for a year more and then see again before we all start cheering.

    Australia's housing crash is going to be worse than America's crash. If you have a mortgage, chances are big you will go bankrupt. Your capital gains over the last 3 years are officially gone already, and the crash hasn't even happened.

    Wakie wakie, back to reality now.

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    CHIS wrote:
    Australia has mass immigration. All our capital cities have urban sprawl. WA is being bulldozed for housing. House prices will not plummet because their isn't enough of them. It isn't America. Interest rates came down 1% today. The sooner you get into property the sooner your life gets going. The sheep are scared. The Lions are feeding.

    "This isn't america". Please explain in which way it's not america ( yes , the obvious being that it's a different country ). Australia is EXACTLY like america. Overpriced, loads of properties available, oversupply of properties infact ( there's 900.000 EMPTY properties ). In fact, America was probably in a better state than Australia was.
    The debt levels certainly are a lot lower in America than in Australia.
    Please explain…

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    foundation wrote:
    gibbo1 wrote:
    You state that prices are falling, the house in question is located in Perth. Perth has some suburbs that are falling, some that have fallen but have started to turn around, some that are pretty flat and others that have continued to increase (although at a decreased rate) during this whole cycle.  I think its imposible to make an acrose the board recommendation without considering all the other factors for this one particular house.

    Ehm…

    Let's look at the facts as we've been given them:

    • Nat herself said "the values in the area have dropped by about 15% in the last 18 months".
    • Nat herself said "we could expect between between 550 000 and 570 000 to sell" and "at the height of the boom the value was 700 000". That's a drop of between 18% and 21%.
    • Nat herself indicated that she expects prices to fall further: "…as well as capital losses".
    • From Nat's figures it looks like this house was renting for around $15k per year and valued at peak at $700k. A gross yield of around 2.1%.
    • At $550k, assuming the $15k rent is about right (plus NG & depreciation bringing it up to $25k) the gross yield is 2.7%

    Considering all these "other factors for this one particular house" as you put it, it's pretty easy to draw the obvious conclusion that the property is fundamentally waaaay over-valued (ditto for every other dwelling in Perth IMNSHO). If there's any positive in all this, it looks like there's a chance that Nat might still sell it to a greater fool for more than its fundamental value (I'm not going to personally disclose here what I think the fundamental value of a $15k gross yielding asset is… trust me, you'd heave up your lunch).

    Cheers,

    F. [cowboy2]

    Thanks foundation. I guess your fundamental value of the 15k gross yielding asset would be closer to my property valuation of 250k than a property valuation of 570k.
    Although, I think you won't even get close to 200k ( just a guess ). My valuation wasn't based on the 15k gross yielding. To expect to sell it for 570k in this market is just silly and ignorant. 

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    Macnatt wrote:
    I disagree with Scamp about massive job losses in the mining industry. The mining boom is underpinned by the asian markets which have esacped the financial meltdowns of  the US and Europe virtually unscathed.

    You clearly do not know how the Asian market works. Asian markets do not come out of this unscathed.
    In fact , yesterday the asian markets crashed again, just like the US, just like Europe, just like Australia.
    To think that mining ( oh my god.. ESPECIALLY MINING !!! ) is going to be unaffected, you are blind to say the very least. Commodities are crashing.. It's perfectly logical they do , everyone saw it coming MILES AWAY.
    It's cause and effect. Something happens, then you see a result and something else happens.

    Mining will crash, end of story. This is fact, not my opinion.
    Recession will come to Australia, this is also fact, not my opinion.

    As to buying my own home in Australia : I am not going to buy at these prices because I know that houseprices will drop. I will rent and invest my cash and get a good positive 8-10% revenue on it, rather than losing all of it in property.

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    Stu macca,

    read some of my other posts, especially the one about RBA having dropped the interest rates by 1% and the real reason to do this ( mortgage resets ). AUD has fallen 30% already over the past few months. It will drop more because of the interest rate drop. This is 30% less profit for mining. Also , commodity prices have crashed about the world. This is 20% less profit for mining. Also , recession is hitting, this is another 50% less profit for mining.
    In other words, mining is passe. Get out while you still can. Mining is about to come to a grinding halt, and recession will replace it. Visit http://www.globalhousepricecrash.com – Australian property for all the info you requested.

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    devo76 wrote:
    Just remember oil was going to be $2.00 bucks a litre  now. OOPS its droped.
    Interest rates will not drop. They will go up.   OOOPS there dropping

    Everytime the gloomers predict something it changes and they have a excuse for the change. Boring

    they will get it right eventually and i believe they will with lower house values but

    50% drop average  NO
    Depression   NO
    Collapse the dollar currency NO
    Head to the hills with your bag of seeds   NO

    These are the rants of a delusional mind. There like ogres huddled around a campfire predicting doom.
    Things will get rough and they will have there moment in the sun( Or dark depending on there mood)
    Then things will get back to normal and they will jump on the next impending earth killer.  YAWN.

    AUD dollar is collapsing as we speak. Are you blind ? the dollar went from near 1 USD to 70USD.
    It will drop more now that the RBA lowered 1% interest. Please do your homework before you post something. That's a 30% drop in the AUD dollar. If that's not a crash then please, tell me what is.

    Inflation ( not CPI ) in Australia is close to 15% now. That's rampant. Just check your food bills compared to last year. Please don't tell me you don't pay at LEAST 15% more, because you do.

    Oil will be 2$ per litre. Especially with the 30 drop in AUD dollar and what's still to come. Fuel might be lower now, the only reason is that recession is hitting the world.

    About the depression : Just hope you don't get there. Because recession is a 100% certainty. Ignoring this won't make it go away.

    50% houseprice drop : Did I say it would drop 50% in less than 6 months ? Ofcourse not. In fact, I told you that the bottom would certainly not be earlier than January 2009, and with the recent actions by RBA and government, it will take longer because now it changed to a recession instead of an economic dip.
    You will see, 50% houseprice drop will happen.

    Dropping interestrates : Yes you are right, I predicted interest rates to go up and they SHOULD have gone up, but they went down. This is completely illogical and has caught most economists by surprise. The drops so far in interest have resulted in a 30% ( !!!!! ) drop in the AUD and it just shows that the RBA has no clue on what they are doing. They have a different agenda. Do you think the AUD dropping is a good thing ? Think again. The drop in the AUD is going to cause massive problems for Australia in the short / medium AND long term.

    Mind you : Dropping interest rates is done for a reason. In 1990 ( you remember, than recession Australia had to have ) RBA dropped interest rates like this. It caused 20% unemployment and loads of trouble for Australia.

    Please, don't speak about things you have no clue about. If you think you were right with the drops of interest rates, this is a very short term, PANIC ACTION by the RBA.

    House prices will now, more than ever, and with 100% certainty , drop 50%.

    There is no doubt. Recession is coming, commodities ( australia's main export product ) have already crashed on top of 30% loss of the AUD dollar. I'm just telling you like it is, nothing different.

    By the way, I'll let you in on a secret on the real reason the RBA has dropped the interest rates.
    Mortgage resets.

    And guess what ? people won't 'save 200$ per month'. They will go from their locked in low interestrates of 6% to the 'new' interestrates of 8%. They will actually have to pay 400$ MORE than before. Thanks to the mortgage resets.

    The RBA just wanted to make the blow a little less bad.
    Instead of going from 6% to 9%, they will now go from 6% to 8%.
    And the RBA has destroyed the only thing the Australians had ( their strong AUD )  by doing it.

    Please read what I wrote up here twice before you reply.

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    Macnath : It is you that need medication for your nerves, not me.

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    Oh yes, and people won't be paying rents either. Property investors are in for double trouble.
    How much tax returns will you get when you don't have work ?
    oooh that's right, 0. A triple whammy.

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    gibbo1 wrote:
    Scamp wrote:
    Please let us know what you sold your house for ( if you can even sell it in this climate ).
    My guess : You will put it on the market for 570 now..  In 4 months you will drop to 550, in 9 months you will be without a job and you will put the house on the market for 450, and in 15 months you will be bankrupt and the house is sold on Auction for it's real value of 250 ( and it will probably still keep declining for 5+ years )

    Please keep me updated.

    And how did your crystal ball work out about the job loss.  Some of the things you say have some degree and credibility.  Posts like this one just dont do much at all, unless people are looking for a laugh. You say to put it on the market at 450 as thats all its worth.  A property is worth what just 1 person is willing to pay for it.  If someone is willing to pay 570 why put it on the market at 450?

    Who said I was willing to pay 450 for it ? I am willing to pay today for it the REAL value of 250, which I posted earlier. So if she wants to sell for 250 I might be interested. She won't because she thinks it's worth more ( without knowing why.. probably the closest she gets is "erh.. because I bought it for blabla". ).

    You need to be incredibly blind to NOT see unemployment going up in the near future. Even my dog knows that recession is coming. Have you been using the recessionblocker or are you just sticking your head into the sand ? ( http://www.recessionblocker.com/results.php?uri=www.news.com.au )

    Wake up , there's a global market crisis which WILL affect Australia and which WILL cause a housing crash in Australia and which WILL cause massive unemployment. There's no doubt about it , just blind people choosing to put their heads in the sand and hope it all goes away.

    We're talking DEPRESSION here, not recession. Just google 1930's depression to get a hint of what's coming your way.

    The DotCom recession is PEANUTS compared to this HUGE MONSTER OF A DEPRESSION.
    Please put that in your head, recession + depression is coming to your doorstep.

    You will lose your job… so get out of debt before you are put on the streets.  If you need explanations on what a recession is , please google it.

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    alani wrote:
    gold has also traditionally been a hedge bet when inflation has been high. when the credit crisis is over and oil goes back to $150 a barrel, the price of gold will probably go through the roof.

    Yes. Gold is a good investment. Banks are too, but not yet.

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    Please let us know what you sold your house for ( if you can even sell it in this climate ).
    My guess : You will put it on the market for 570 now..  In 4 months you will drop to 550, in 9 months you will be without a job and you will put the house on the market for 450, and in 15 months you will be bankrupt and the house is sold on Auction for it's real value of 250 ( and it will probably still keep declining for 5+ years )

    Please keep me updated.

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    Stay out of the property market at all costs. Getting in now will ruin you for life. End of story.

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    Sell if you still can. Put it up for sale for 450.000 ( you say you think you can sell it at 560.000 which is clearly not true market value ).  Take the loss and see this as an expensive lesson.

    You were suckered into a property bubble that will keep declining for years to come. In the meantime you are losing capital on this house while getting nothing back. Your loss will be 100's of thousands of dollars which you could have SAVED and then bought a house cash now ( with the 15% rebate ).
    When ( not if ) your husband loses his job ( yes, recession is coming, and mining will be affected most ) you will not have choices anymore, you will end up on the streets without a home.

    This is reality, not the fairytale propertyinvesting.com website with amateur investors.
    Get out, and stay out of property until prices dropped 50%.

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    yes I can give my opinion. You will be in much financial pain very soon.
    Sorry to bring this bad news, can't make it any better than it is. You got suckered in, you will probably be ruined.
    Good luck with repaying your debts the rest of your life.

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