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    Answer:
    Cheap properties : your earnings are made from rental incomes
    Expensive properties : your earnings are made from equity incomes

    Like michaelparis said : need more info for some real advice. At this moment however, is not a good time to buy anything.

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    bardon wrote:
    Back on the charts the one on page one of this report is more descriptive of the price history and I am expecting more of the same in the future.

    http://www.anz.com/documents/economics/Housing%20Snapshot%20April%202008.pdf

    You realize that only 1% in the world actually knows what a Log Scale is right ?
    Log scales are a nice way to disguise reality, as spruikers have done for a long time.
    In order for the log scale to continue it's upward spiral, you imply houseprices will double in the next 5 years.

    That will not happen. We have reached a top in the housing prices. Simply put, there are only 2 solutions :
    – High inflation ( with double to triple wages within 2-3 years )
    – Houseprice deflation.

    Inflation is the axis of evil. It will be prevented by any government at all costs. This means higher interest rates, which means even more unaffordable houseprices, less buyers even, and thus more pressure on houseprices.

    Deflation is the only way to go. It will happen.

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    bardon wrote:

    Why doesn't the graph use the median ( 50th percentile ) of the houseprices instead of just 30 percent ?
    On top of that, 10% deposit ? You know anyone who does that ? And that's at 6% interest rates.

    Try making a new graph, based on REALITY :

    – 10% interest
    – median houseprice , not 30% of it
    – no deposit.

    Let's do the maths : Let's assume a median houseprice of 500.000$ for easy maths
    10% interest = 50.000 dollars per year just paying interest. Your graph says that income is about 70.000 ( which I doubt ) , so they have 20.000 GROSS income left. After taxes, let's assume they have 14.000$ AUD left to live. You still think housing in Australia is affordable ?

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    bardon wrote:
    Scamp have you seen the chart of Australain house prices over time and why do you think it will be different this time

    Yes. Have you ? Here's the graph by the way ( in case someone looks for it )

    Houseprices since 1880 to 2007

    Why it's going to be different ? Well… I have said it a million times already : The money tap is closed.
    There's no more money, people are in debt as far as you can possibly get them. No money = no buyers.
    No buyers mean oversupply in sales ( which you see now ) which means houseprices will come down to prices where people can pay for their mortgage affordably again ( pre-1990 prices )

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    I know, and I'm not god. It's no secret, just use your brains. It's there for everyone to see. Only the bulls close their eyes.

    Oh, the recent rental vacancies in Sydney here btw :

    ……………………2-May..30-May…6-Jun..13-Jun..20-Jun..27-Jun..Chg Week..Chg Total
    Canterbury/Bankstown…..424…..431…..461…..500…..511…..527…..3.13%…..24.29%
    Eastern Suburbs………1968….2247….2299….2332….2406….2415…..0.37%…..22.71%
    Hills………………..305…..324…..302…..293…..323…..361….11.76%…..18.36%
    Inner West…………..1134….1264….1281….1393….1377….1439…..4.50%…..26.90%
    Liverpool / Fairfield….331…..396…..378…..375…..382…..366….-4.19%…..10.57%
    Macarthur/Camden………325…..392…..352…..333…..308…..311…..0.97%…..-4.31%
    North Shore – Lower…..1129….1285….1289….1356….1328….1330…..0.15%…..17.80%
    North Shore – Upper……529…..584…..578…..603…..667…..640….-4.05%…..20.98%
    Northern Beaches………555…..592…..630…..645…..641…..644…..0.47%…..16.04%
    Northern Suburbs………355…..393…..399…..394…..406…..412…..1.48%…..16.06%
    Parramatta……………696…..677…..666…..733…..716…..785…..9.64%…..12.79%
    St George…………….372…..401…..387…..418…..434…..415….-4.38%…..11.56%
    Sutherland……………358…..429…..440…..479…..464…..421….-9.27%…..17.60%
    Sydney City…………..761…..875…..836…..893…..920…..901….-2.07%…..18.40%
    Western Sydney………..623…..651…..605…..640…..649…..680…..4.78%……9.15%
    ……………………9865…10941…10903…11387…11532…11647…..1.00%…..18.06%
    ……………………4.18%..2.07%…1.28%…2.98%..-0.35%…4.44%…1.27%

    Conclusion : 18% ( !! ) extra vacant rentals up just this month may. And that number will only go up in months to come, as less people are able to sell their IP's , they will rent them out, pushing rental prices down.

    Like I told you weeks ago already : Rental prices will go down, not up. The futile try by investors and banks and government to push up rental prices was easily and preductably beaten by the supply and demand market.
    God has nothing to do with this, just like he won't save the investors who put themselves into debt beyond their capacity. ( although the tax payers might be screwed in the first few months, this will also not have any effect longterm on the crash ).

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    Yarpos : Yes ofcourse. Where do you think the expression "USA sneezes and Australia catches a cold" comes from ?
    Just look at the events of what happened in USA. Then extrapolate to Australia. 18 months difference, everything else is the same.

    About the rental crisis : There is no rental crisis. People who say that are blind.
    Soon it will all become clear to everyone, when rents will be dropping.
    Until then, it's good news for the bears, since rising rents are a form of inflation, and we all know what happens is inflation rises, right ? ( think RBA ) On top of that, government will take measures to drop the rental prices, where there is no rental crisis in the first place, this will contribute to the problem even more.

    People using the rental price increase excuse really are blind to the obvious.

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    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1028492/A-flat-block-sold-238-000-2006-Now-8217-s-resold-auction-just-71-000.html#

    There you go. It was Leeds by the way, not too small a town.

    Don't be fooled, these are not 'unrealistically high asking prices' as we see in Australia, these are what people actually PAID for it, 1 or 2 years ago.
    In Australia, people ask 50% more on top of the asking price just to try and make a profit. A crash implies that we ( read : you , aka australia ) goes back to pre-1990 houseprices.

    This topic is quite old by the way, I created it in an utterly bullish time ( a few months ago ) when noone could see any way of house prices going south. Even though I was right about the houseprices dropping, my feeling is that they will drop even lower, to pre-1990 houseprices. Remember, Australia lags behind UK and USA about 18 months. There's trouble ahead when banks stop lending money to potential buyers.

    Remember that in the last 5 years houseprices in some area's have gone up by 200%.
    It's just a matter of time before they crash by 50% again.

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    CHIS : You realize that in UK the houses have falled by up to 70% in the recent few months don't you ?
    It's been in the news. And UK is a lot less problematic than Australia. I expect Australia to be much worse off than UK , the only difference is that Australia is lagging about 12-18 months behind.

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    CHIS :

    All sounds very good. But why would you buy now and go through the whole mess of sifting through 1000 properties just to find 1 to haggle the price down on, when in 1 year all 1000 properties will be going for haggle prices ?
    The whole meaning of this post is to tell people : Don't buy now, the housing market is crashing. Never buy in a crashing market, always buy when the market starts to go up. It doesn't matter if you missed the absolute bottom point, as long as you invest on the climb, and not on the downhill side of the graph.
    Investing now means you invest at the top of a very big downhill run for properties. Either it will take 10 to 15 years to recover slowly, or unemployment, high oil prices and high debt will make it a fast and very painful experience for some, but whatever happens, prices will go down. They are unsustainable ( just look at the amount of mortgage arrears climbing alarmingly ).
    The best tactic is to rent a home for 100-200 per week out of the expensive rental area's and buy a cheap car, maybe a bicycle, and get a job in a government position somewhere , or in education. Then you'll ride the recession easily, and you'll save a lot of money which you can spend in 2 years buying a nice home with a low mortgage and a large deposit of your savings.

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    thinkruss wrote:
    Hey Scamps did you see the news the other night? They reported a continued surge in property for at least 3 more years to come!!

    A surge in property for sale I reckon. There's no way property will go up for 3 more years, they have already gone down 10% to 40%, and will continue to plummet. More and more for sale, very few buyers ( if any ) and when sold, they are usually sold at 10% under the discounted asking price.

    Can you provide a link to the news item ? Or was it some spruiker TV commercial disguised as a news item ?

    Property will not go up for at least 2010. The bottom will be around January 2009, and prices will only reflect this bottom around 2010 – 2011, and the prices of 2010 will only be reflected in 2011 / 2013.

    Well, that's my personal opinion anyway.

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    Property investing is REAL simple ( no idea why people make it harder than it is )
    Look for a property that will generate ( more rent ) than ( your interest payments in the house + 20% )
    If you have a neighborhood where a 3 bedroom will rent for 200 per week, you want to spend 160 per week on interest repayments. The other 40 you will use for repairs and missed rental weeks.

    So , a house 'worth' 200 per week in rental returns should COST you :
    160*52 = 8320 dollars per year interest.
    At current rates ( add 2% interest rates increase on it ) = 11%
    That means a house price of about 75.000 AUD$.

    At this point most people on this forum will say I'm a total idiot and have no idea what I'm talking about.
    I give you the only way to invest safely. Whether you listen to me or others is up to you.

    Since there are no houses for 75000 that rent for 200$, you will have to wait till they drop in price, or till rents catch up with interest repayments. Seeing that economy isn't doing very well, and renters are up their ass in debt already, they won't have much money to pay more rents any time soon.

    Conclusion : Don't get into housing now. The housing market is crashing, and it's crashing for a very good reason.

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    tam32 wrote:
    I know of a few people now who are writing covered calls on the stock market and generating a cashflow of about 3% on their investment each month… it is a great strategy to add value to your portfolio and generate cashflow each month to assist with the rise in interest rates

    Yes, a great strategy as long as the stock value goes up. What happens what the stock value goes down ?
    You're basically betting on a losing horse in order to keep a dying horse alive.

    Tam : Do you know what a covered call is ?… Do you realize the risks of it when stock goes down ?
    Apparently not. The only thing you say is : they generate 3% on their investment each month.
    What happens when stock dives ? ( I refer to something that happens every 7 years )
    People take a nose dive.
    I'm sure you will come up with another even more risky way to make money in order to keep your stock AND your interest payments up… but it's all ending soon m8.

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    joseph scott wrote:
    I have looked at 113 properties here in tasmania, not 1 meets the 11 second solution, props for $175,000 rent for between 120-170 per week, at 350,000, the avarage rent is around 320 per week.

    It's what I have been telling you all along : Houses are overvalued. They are overpriced.
    You can look at 500 houses , and still not find one that's positively geared.
    And it's not because rents are too low, it's because the price of the house is too high.

    10 times average income… crazy.
    'Holding costs' … crazy.
    Housewives owning 3 PI's… crazy.

    Don't worry, the crash will solve it all.

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    hoping2doitright wrote:
    Its not as simple as calling the bank unfortunately, how do i get to the right people

    It really is that simple. Just call the local bank in the town ( or close to it ) where your house is, then ask them where the mortgage-guy of the bank is. Usually they are in the local office ( 1 or 2 guys specializing in mortgages ) and sometimes they're in a big office in a bigger city.
    Banks are made up of people. These people are easily accessibly, they love to help you , because that in turn helps them to earn money on you. Having a good relationship with your bank ( I have good relationships with 3 banks here in Europe, when I call them they recognize me, ask how things are going etc.. ) really helps in getting things done without the hassle of paperwork. If you are considered a serious investor, the banks will treat you real well, with open doors and few hassles. Ofcourse, if they think you're just a hassler or someone without money, then it gets harder.
    Banks ( unlike individuals ) have more money than time, hence, you need to have money for them to give you some of their time. If you have no money, it can be hard to persuade them to give you their time.

    What you should always do when you go to a bank meeting :
    – wear a suit ( silly, but it's needed. It's like courtesy )
    – be prepared, have all the papers ready, have your disposable income all set out on paper, ( this is what they are really after )
    – In general don't waste their time. Time is money.

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    Didn't get any mail, sorry. I use gmail, maybe it got spam-marked ?

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    700$ a fortnight is 18000$ per year of loss.
    Devaluation is about 2% per month now, so that's another 24% of 350.000 = 84.000$ loss per year
    You're losing about 102.000AUD$ per year keeping a 350.000 house.

    I'm sure in 2010 the house will go up again, but by that time you will have lost 204.000$.
    For it to go back to old prices, you'd need to keep it about 20 years for it to become positively geared, all that time you will lose money.

    I understand you say "we accept the losses" but 20 years of losing money sounds like crazy to me.
    Save it up in an account, and you can buy a 1.000.000 ( million ) dollar house in 10 years, CASH, without mortgage. Just for selling now, in current climate.

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    Auction clearance rates are very low at the moment ( 15% – 30% max )
    But you get some exposure to the market too, which may lead to private offers after the auction.
    It could be worth it, IF you plan to sell for a 'reasonable price'

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    Thinkruss :

    Try and look at it from the other side. Don't start out with "I want a 4 bedroom home" but start out like this :

    Figure out how much money you realistically could spend on a house, with mortgage. I think if you're a starter, this could be anywhere between 120.000 and 240.000 AUD$.
    You can do a few things with this money :
    – Find a fixer upper home.
    – Find a townhouse with 3 bedrooms
    – Find a cheap home in a bad neighborhood close to university or hospital or close to CBD.

    Consider renting out 1 or 2 of the bedrooms to students of starter workers that want to live away from their parents but don't want to pay premium rents. You can ask 90$ for the room per week , and share bathroom and kitchen for instance. If you do this for 2 students, you can get 180$ times 4 = 720$ dollars per month. Another benefit is that you can ask them to share electricity / water and council taxes with you ( don't share the tax benefits though ).

    Another thing you could consider is buying a bit bigger fixerupper home for 200.000$ and divide the upper floors from the lower floors. Put kitchen / shower etc both up and downstairs, make some outside stairs to the first floor and rent out the whole first floor for 200 or 300$. This way you have privacy, but share the mortgage.

    You can even decide to stay at home while you rent out both upper and lower floor for a positively geared investment.

    That's what I did when I started out investing in homes, I had 3 students for 6 years in my own home. It can actually be quite cosy ! Make sure you only get girls, and make up a clear contract that they can't make a mess in the place though, and no parties ! There's a lot of students who actually study and don't party, and they are all looking for places where they can have a good sleep and not the common studentparties etc.

    Good luck.

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    Hi,

    Don't talk to your friend , talk to the bank directly. Your friend ( at this point ) has nothing to say about the house since the bank owns more of it than he does. ( it's called SubPrime loan ( this is what started the whole crap in USA and is what will drive house prices down in Australia too ) ).

    Go to the bank. Tell them that they can get 80% of their mortgage back in cash by you. If you can't pay cash, they won't settle for sure, since they will just have the same problem with you later. Your job is to tell the bank that you want the house for cash ( either from a loan / mortgage at another bank or whatever ).

    The bank will save a lot of costs this way. But your friend needs to call himself bankrupt in most cases. If the bank understands his financial position ( I expect them to ) then you could go 'around' the whole legal eviction process which is very very costly for a bank. If the bank thinks they will get more money on auction, then you will not get a deal. Simply because otherwise we'll see LOADS of bankruptcies of people selling their houses for 1 dollar to their 'friends' and then buying it back for 2 dollars :D

    Don't mention you know the guy, just say you saw a 'for sale' sign or whatever. If you tell the bank that you know him, the deal is over.

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    You know about the new highway they are going to build in Ipswitch right ?
    More traffic jams and more noise if you're close to it. ( see Sydney West suburbs scenario )

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