Can i throw something into this debate? Not sure if you have done work on this but no one seems to mention anything about lower funds coming from securitisation markets. Ie NAB/WBC/ANZ fund c40-45% of their loan books (both residential and commercial) through "whole sale" markets, the rest coming from deposits. With the advent of the GFC, this has…[Read more]

rayd wrote:
I would be interested if anyone has any thoughts or done any work on what will be the impact on house prices from signficantly reduced new security issues in the whole sale funding markets? ie the commercial backed mortgage securities (CBMS) market and residential backed mortgage markets (RBMS)? I have a couple of observations and w…[Read more]

blogs wrote:

rayd wrote:
Remember house prices are down 19% and 17% in the US and UK respectively so far (not 40%) – and both of these countries have failed banking systems. So to say a 40% collapse in Australian property prices is ahead is a very pessimistic call.

Remember we still have a lot of this recession to flow through. Deloittes are…[Read more]

Reality is that most economists never get their forecasts right. Remember in November 2008 – every economist from leading retail and investment banks (with the exception of Morgan Stanley) were predicting +0.1% GDP growth in 2009. Even the RBA Governor was forecasting Australia would avoid a recession, and only have a mild softening. So i would…[Read more]

I would be interested if anyone has any thoughts or done any work on what will be the impact on house prices from signficantly reduced new security issues in the whole sale funding markets? ie the commercial backed mortgage securities (CBMS) market and residential backed mortgage markets (RBMS)? I have a couple of observations and would point…[Read more]

thanks for that. Doesnt sound as bad as i thought, i guess i was worried that i would need to constructu a trench wall to stop the roots from getting to the foundations.