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    Originally posted by FireCaesar:
    I’m not sure how one goes about obtaining the rental yield (%) when given the value of the property with the rent per week. Perhaps someone can enlighten me on this. Thanks.

    G’day again Nero [biggrin]

    Monopoly answered me back in May this year on precisely this question. Hope she doesn’t mind if I quote her:
    “There are so many ways of doing it (my way; which is probably the longer way) of doing it is as so:
    Weekly rent (170 x 52 = 8,840 annual rent) divided by cost base for property (100,000) multiplied by 100 = 8.84%

    Using Karl and Rita’s figures:
    170 * 52 / 100,000 * 100
    8,840 / 100,000 = 0.0884 X 100 = 8.84

    Another example:
    220 p/w X 52 = 11,440 (annual rent) divided by cost price of say 150,000 – hence
    11,440 / 150,000 = 0.0762 X 100 = 7.62%
    Have fun!!!!”

    Perhaps search my posts around May 2004, as there were quite a good number of replies on that thread.

    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by FireCaesar:
    Just wanted to make sure I was getting the idea right for P.I.
    *Using cash for downpayment of first I.P
    *first I.P appreciates
    *Draw down on free “equity” (free money) after appreciation
    *Use the free “equity” as downpayment of second I.P Is this correct?

    You got it in a nutshell, Fire Nero [biggrin]

    Read Peter Spann’s chapter “The Endless Deposit” in his book “$10 Million Property Portfolio in 10 Years.”
    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by Derek:

    If you are only selling your home to free up the money for investment you may be better off speaking to a broker who can show you how you may be able to keep you home and also free up some of the equity you have available for other investments…. Ultimately what you do is up to you but for me I would suggest you hold fire, spend some time thinking and planning about what you want to achieve and then take action that is consistent with these plans. Derek

    Hi and CONGRATULATIONS!!

    Wow, only 20 years old, and in such a strong position. Fabulous, and I love your focus on giving 10% to a worthy charity.

    I’m with Derek. Please don’t sell your IP just to invest. Not yet, anyway. There are far cleverer ways to do this. There may come a time when you choose to cash up, but please read further and ask people who can advise you precisely…

    Read Peter Spann’s chapter on “The Endless Deposit” in “How to Build a $10 Million Property Portfolio in 10 Years”.

    I assume you’re well read in IP books to be where you are. Look at attending a number of affordable, recommended seminars as part of your ongoing education. Good seminars, when you act positively on the advice offered after undertaking appropriate due diligence, are well worth the money.

    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by Chris2004:
    Thanks Derek makes sense![exhappy]

    Hi Chris

    Can I assume you’ve paid a Quantity Surveyor for a depreciation schedule on your IP? Crucial for tax effectiveness.

    Also, DON’T do a depreciation schedule when your PPOR becomes an IP before speaking to your accountant. There may be some pretty serious ramifications down the track (click on Julia’s site http://www.bantacs.com.au and get to know an accountant who’s really property savvy).

    Re your fears, you need to develop the stance of the FEARLESS INVESTOR if you’re going to build your wealth. My wife and I have 16 properties, and over the past 20 years have learnt that this game is so easy if you practice three simple rules:
    1. When renting is easy, charge the market rent.
    2. When the market slips a little, drop your rent 10% – 15% to keep full occupancy (it’s cheaper than having vacancies or high tenant turnover).
    3. Be FEARLESS, but put financial safeguards in place and sleep well.

    All our IP’s are brick, and that helps, but by following these simple practices we’ve been able to enjoy a long term occupancy rate of 99%.

    Go for it.
    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by Greg F:

    Hi [cigar] [cap] I’m hoping you guys and gals are going to deluge us with juicy web links /press releases /all relevent info on this issue (“Pretty please with a jellybean on top?”)
    Thanks Greg

    Me again folks

    The Mortgage Broker who tipped me off has just sent me this link ( I owe him one):

    http://www.oum.qld.gov.au/

    Check it out, and post your thoughts and any other links here. Deal?

    Cheers, Greg

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    Originally posted by MichaelWhyte:
    Its official. According the SMH today we’re a greedy bunch and getting greedier, and what’s more this is a good thing! You thrifty types better get out there and spend up big over Christmas like all those good people contributing to our economic growth. Forecasts say we’ll spend on average $1650 for every person in Australia. I haven’t spent my $3300 for my wife and I so I better get started.
    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/12/09/1102182420352.html
    And I thought I was being responsible…

    Hi Michael

    Xmas spending spree? Count Niki and I in, mate. Santa Claus is gonna get a hernia carrying that massive chunk of land we’re buying ourselves for a Xmas present!!! Mmmmmm….. Investments for presents… Yummmeeee, don’t you just luv ’em!!

    Guess the ham and turkey will have to wait for another Season while we pay off this deal. [blush2] [biggrin] [buz2]

    Merry Xmas to all (now where’s that Santa smiley?)
    Greg

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    Originally posted by camnlisa:

    Hi Guys, Having just finished the second Steve McKnight book I was motivated enough to buy two investment properties in a rural town for $140k each renting for $310 each per week – an unbelievable find I couldn’t refuse!! I would like to self manage these and need info about bonds (I seem to remember reading that they have to be kept with either an independant party or held at a bond board??) and how to correctly formulate and make binding a rental agreement. Is there somewhere I could go to get a pro forma rental agreement perhaps?? Lisa[upsidedown]
    Lisa Osmotherly

    Hi Lisa

    Don’t do it!! I have a considerable number of IP’s in rural towns /regional cities, as well as prime real estate investments on Qld’s Sunshine Coast.

    Trust me, self-managing is almost invariably a recipe for disaster, especially when you live far, far away.

    This, of course, assumes you can find a good local rental manager. If this is a problem, provide details of the area, either through PM or openly, and there are people here who can help you with recommendations of good rental managers in most places in Australia.

    I’m a school teacher /property developer, with no interest in promoting RE agents. It’s just that, given my good experiences with tenants over 20 years, I still rely on my network of rental managers

    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by Derek:

    Quote:
    While this suggestion seems so simple in practice it does not improve Michael’s non-deductible to deductible debt ratio at all. The ATO will apply the ‘what was the money for test’ = to pay off PPOR therefore refinance on block not deductible. Even though the security is held by an ‘investment’ the purpose of the loan is non investment related and therefore the interest accruing is not deductible.Derek

    Hi Derek, LifeX and Michael

    What if, before refinancing his PPOR, Michael checks with Bundaberg Council to see if the land can be rezoned Rural Residential etc? If the answer is yes, he can subdivide at his leisure and become a property developer. [cigar][cigar]Waahooooo!!!!

    If, having set up his Family Trust to manage the development, he then refinances his PPOR and sets up a LOC with a defined purpose (ie., cash to proceed with sub-division) will the ATO then be forced to acknowledge the investment purpose of his ppor refinancing?

    Cheers
    Greg
    PS: We’re giving poor Michael one hell of a “to do” list. On top of Peter Spann etc, we’ve just added Dale Gatherum-Goss’ “Trust Magic” and “Tax Battles” to his “must read” list!! [cap][biggrin]

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    Hi folks

    Can some kind forumite please teach me how to use the “colour” button to put that sexy red ink into my replies in a “Question and Answer” format??

    I tried to put my last couple of responses to Michael Whyte (above) into the main body of his posts (his questions in blue ink, my answers in red ink) and it all went “belly up” on me. [confused2][confused2][blush2][blush2]

    What’s the trick?

    Cheers
    Greg
    PS: Once I learn how to colorise my responses in the main body of earlier posts, there’ll be no stopping me!! Watch out!! First colour, then different fonts and sizes. Wahooo!

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    Originally posted by aussierogue:
    michael – my grandmother once told me that if i vascilate too much i will go blind – so if that aint incentive im not sure what is….good luck..

    Didn’t your grandmother mean that if you keep masticating, you’ll go blind?

    Ahh, the sublime pleasures some of us get from big words. Anal retentive indeed!!

    Some of the nicest people I know are anal retentives who KNOW they’re anal retentives, and can laugh about it. Anal retentives who link with pragmatic visionaries can have lots of fun (Stop it! That’s your naughty minds[cap]).

    ROFL

    Greg

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    Originally posted by Greg F:

    Quote:
    Originally posted by MichaelWhyte:
    And, if I use targeted analysis at the micro level I might still spot an opportunity for an informed investment even in this nationally depressed market? That’s an interesting concept, and I must admit, I thought all of Australia would be subjected to the dynamics of increased interest rates and reduced sentiments.

    By the way, Michael, congratulations on your use of the adjective “informed” above. I LOVE that adjective!! [biggrin] One of my favourite sayings as a schoolteacher when I’m discussing controversial issues with my students is:
    “Everyone has an opinion about everything, but how many people have ‘informed’ opinions?”

    If I can bring what I said above to a finely sharpened point, how about asking yourself one key, focus question:
    “Can I see Peter Spann, Margaret Lomas, Jan Somers, Steve McKnight, Rick Otten and other RE guru’s doing NOTHING in real estate over the next couple of years?”

    I think you know what the answer to that one is. Why don’t you ask them? Try PMing Peter Spann direct.

    That’s an interesting concept, and I must admit, I thought all of Australia would be subjected to the dynamics of increased interest rates and reduced sentiments.

    Basically, I think your goal of $2 million-$3 million unencumbered so you can retire in 15 years is WAY too modest given your earning potential. I’m just a schoolteacher, and my 5 year plan involves hundreds of properties. Can I do it? Time will tell, but my amazing wife Niki and I are in the process of giving it a real shakeup.

    I know you’re not one of those who say Steve McKnight and others were just lucky because they got their timing right. Peter Spann has an interesting story about getting started as a developer in a major recession. Why can’t you do the same given that you, more than many others, are in a position to focus on finely tuned market segments with a battery of proven strategies. It’s not rocket science, mate. [biggrin][buz2]

    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by MichaelWhyte:
    Greg, Funny you should mention bootcamp…. However, it is quite expensive and not something I would do until I was already a REI….

    A friend of mine spent approximately $25,000 going to Burley’s Bootcamp in USA a few years back. He says it was money very well spent, and who am I to question him on that one. Today he’s a very experienced multi-property wrapper. Myself, I’m more like you, Michael, than you might think…. I won’t be spending anything like $25,000, but I will be going to one of Rick Otten’s Boot Camps towards the end of next year with my JV partner who went to one this year. Apart from the information sharing, it’s all about the networking with the real achievers, not the talkers and/or people who’ve psyched themselves into analysis paralysis (that’s clearly not you, in case you were wondering) [biggrin]

    Thank you for the reference to Peter Spann’s “$10 Million Property Portfolio in just 10 Years?”. I haven’t read this book and it seems precisely the sort of specific information on how to select and invest in optimum properties that I’m looking for.

    Enjoy Peter’s book. I know you’ll devour it. I suspect you’ll also LOVE his tip about how to get a bank’s Panel Valuers working for YOU instead of your bank (amongst stacks of other juicy tidbits he has included in his book).

    A good compromise re seminar affordability and effective networking might be for you to go to one of Peter Spann’s seminars (I believe he’s quite $$$ reasonable. His website is something like http://www.freemanfox.com.au If this link doesn’t work, do a google search, PLUS a search on this forum under “Peter Spann” for a long, mega-inspirational thread which ran from July 2004 – October 2004). I’ve never been to one of Peter’s seminars, but he’s DEFINATELY ON MY SHORT LIST. Let me know if and when you’ll be going, and I might be able to meet you there (depending on how sales are going in our rural subdivision). [cap]

    I don’t have access to too much in the way of statistical projections, but I am the Demand Manager for one of Australia’s largest MDF businesses. This is a lead team role reporting to the Business Manager.
    Okay, expose my ignorance publically, why don’t you Michael? [confused2] (Just joking, my ego can take it!) What the hell is MDF (is it something to do with Mortgage Finance?)

    Just to wrap up, are you suggesting that these micro markets are not subject to the dynamics of the macro Australian RE market?
    Maybe, but it’s more to do with the evolution of my thinking / experience / growing expertise as an IP investor. One of the real secrets I’m in the process of still learning more about is that “full blown success” really does have EVERYTHING to do with your thought processes. When you use language like “the dynamics of the macro Australian RE market” this is a very impressive and precise use of technical terms, but you flirt with the possibility that you become mentally REACTIVE (ie., you start seeing yourself as a passive victim of market realities way beyond your control) rather than PROACTIVELY searching for, and then confidently applying, strategies which WILL GENERATE (albeit smaller in the down times) profits which are at least partially independent of market cycles.

    20 years ago, I was just one of the -ve gearing mugs who went for the good old fashioned “Buy and Holds” because I didn’t know any better. Boy, did I suffer: 16-17 years of negative gearing before the market paid me back!! Then I finally realised there are many, many alternative
    a) Strategies…
    b) Markets and…
    c) Market segments…
    out there. And even though I knew all other businesses buy wholesale and sell retail to make a profit, the penny only dropped a few short years ago that this applies to the Real Estate industry just like any other industry. What did this mean for me? That I, too, could start buying real estate WHOLESALE, instead of paying RETAIL price for it. So yes, Michael, I’m devouring all I can about wraps, flips, lease options etc from both Steve McKnight and Rick Otten’s Wrap Packs, but more significantly I’m getting into sub-divisions and will be applying all sorts of strategies along the way. The secret? To me, it’s the subtle sub-text in Steve McKnight’s motto: “Success comes from doing things differently.” My tip is to really chew on that one. There’s so much hiding in there that escapes most of our minds.

    And, if I use targeted analysis at the micro level I might still spot an opportunity for an informed investment even in this nationally depressed market? That’s an interesting concept, and I must admit, I thought all of Australia would be subjected to the dynamics of increased interest rates and reduced sentiments.

    I offered you Peter Spann’s 212 mnemonic because I thought you’d relate to it as you’ve expressed above. However, in spite of your obvious professionalism, I suspect you’re still at least partially in the more traditional “Buy and Hold” thinking. Don’t get me wrong. I LOVE my buy and hold properties!!! After all, isn’t that what it’s all about? Increasing our net worth by owning tangible assets? Of course, but there are a few other important dynamics to this constantly moving equation. The key is the subtleity of our thinking, our mentality, our thought processes. You’re ruthlessly methodical and rational, Michael, and boy is that ever so refreshing!! My point is that there are 2 hemispheres in our brains, and it’s all about balancing both hemispheres and just “going for it”.

    Hope I’m not being too vague or mystical [blush2][blush2]

    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by Marisa:

    I would think you would get more for 3 bedroom than 2 large bedroom.

    Ditto. NEVER swap a 3br for a 2 br.

    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by Nobleone:
    Hi Greg … I might have made a good start into IP’s but I still need people like yourself to give me reasons to think laterally and out of the box…. Would you like to share where you discovered this info and what the strategies are?[whistle] :”One key secret I’ve picked up is that certain strategies are virtually guaranteed to make you a profit irrespective of the state of the market, or what stage of the market we’re at.”….It’s a perfect day here on QLD’s Sunshine Coast so I think I’ll move away from the computer and after breakfast head off to the beach… That’s what Sundays are for.[specool] Cheers, Nobleone

    Hi Nobleone

    You’re from Qld’s Sunshine Coast? Me too!! I’m from what is euphemistically called “Hinterland Sunshine Coast” [biggrin][bonjour][cap] and have some nice IPs in Mountain Creek, Mapleton, and Gympie.

    Given that a large part of this journey is about networking, how about you pop over for afternoon tea sometime soon and “chew the cud” re RE strategies /opportunities?

    Re “secrets”, you’ve already substantially answered your own question with what you said about thinking laterally and outside the box:
    “I might have made a good start into IP’s but I still need people like yourself to give me reasons to think laterally and out of the box.”

    Perhaps “secrets” is too strong a word, given that this forum is frequented by wrappers, flippers, lease-optioners, developers etc etc etc (from extremely experienced to relative newbies).

    I’m a longtime fan of the subtle use of words to get across “hidden” and “not so hidden” truths:
    “Success comes from doing things differently”

    My tip is to REALLY chew on that one, because there’s a lot more wisdom and experience in there than meets the eyes of most people.

    Looking forward to meeting up with you.

    Cheers
    Greg
    PS: How was the beach? My wife Niki and I were out dancing and partying last night, so we’ve had a lovely “veg-out” day in front of the tele watching the Australian Open Golf.

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    Originally posted by Terryw:

    you can do a title search for $8 at http://www.lands.nsw.gov.au/OnlineServices/DIYSearch/default.htm Terryw

    Hi Terry

    Great NSW site!![biggrin][cap] Do you (or anyone else) have a similar site for Qld IP’s?

    Awaiting your replies with bated breath.

    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by Nobleone:
    …Then I spent 8 months reading every book I could get my hands on, reading the archives on this forum, also Somersoft and Property Talk NZ and I also joined a mentoring group called Modern Millionaire (Brisbane based). My goal is to retire from my day job by replacing my salary with income from IP’s within 5-years. I will however use some more of my own cash to get a foothold into the QLD market but I don’t anticipate buying anything for at least another 18-months (Unless I come across the deal of the century)…. Thank you for your advice, it’s veru encouraging. Cheers, Nobleone.

    Hi again Nobleone

    Brilliantly done re your $2 company, trust, LOC, “go-get’em” attitude, research, involvement in mentoring group etc etc.

    And again, please accept my apologies if anything I said above came across as trying to teach you to suck eggs.

    There are a couple of mini-refinements I’d suggest re your intention to not buy anything for 18 months: “I like your “212” mnemonic, it’s very apt given that I believe the market is now at the beginning of the first 2 years stage”:
    1. My summary of Peter Spann’s 212 strategy is very, very rough. Have you read Spann? Great stuff!! I’ve re-read his chapter on practically applying median price data many times to get the fuller picture.
    2. I’m not one of those who intends to sit on my hands and not buy any properties for the next 18 months. Why? Because there are both
    a) mini-markets and
    b) mini/major market segments
    which are still performing attractively. And if, like me, your 5 year plan involves giving up your job courtesy of IP incomes, 18 months out of a 5 year plan is a big chunk of precious, precious time.

    One key secret I’ve picked up is that certain strategies are virtually guaranteed to make you a profit irrespective of the state of the market, or what stage of the market we’re at. And to optimise that realisation, another discipline I’m trying to adopt (and I keep “falling off the wagon” lots of times)is to refine my language whenever I’m tempted to talk about “the market” and replace it with phrases like “plethora of mini-markets”. Fussy, but important.

    So my tip is to tweak your strategies, or move across into a different market segment, rather than sit quietly for the next 18 months.

    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by Nobleone:
    HI Greg, I am fairly new to owning IP’s, 5 months all up, so far I have 3 +CF in North Island NZ lowest return I have is 12.3% gross.
    I bought all three in different locations on 20% deposits. I wanted +CF so I could show the banks servicability. That’s the plan for my next move anyway… What’s your opinion? Cheers, Nobleone [biggrin]

    Hi Nobleone

    Brilliantly done!!! 3 +CF properties in 5 months!! Excellent!! Now the hard work really begins. As long as you can keep the “Endless 20% deposits” coming, your portfolio will be rocket powered!

    Have a look at Michael Whyte’s recent posts for an example of a newbie who’s clearly got his head screwed on. Why do I say that, when I’ve never met the guy?
    1. Because of the quality of his posts, but more importantly…
    2. …Because he’s taken the trouble to write down his goals.
    All the guru’s recommend it; so few actually do it. Go figure [biggrin]

    You’re obviously well read in IP literature, but how extensively have you networked with the real achievers? Been to any seminars? Put your money on the table to buy the classy kits which paint the more complete picture for you?

    Here’s what I wrote to Michael, on a different issue, but I feel it’s relevant to you as well because you’re heading confidently down a solidly travelled path. And, like Michael, all you need is a bit of “fine tuning” to make yourself into a real property tycoon:
    “Hi Michael, Great post, and congrats on your determination. For my money, I can’t for the life of me see why you’re prepared to wait so long when this magnificent country of ours doesn’t have one single property market, but rather a plethora of mini-markets, many of them at vastly different stages of their OWN, PERSONALISED PROPERTY CYCLES.

    You’re clearly very professional and methodical in the way you go about things; all you need is a bit of “fine tuning” to make yourself into a real property tycoon. To this end, I’d urge you to set aside $5,000 – $10,000 for your personal professional development, and get yourself off to a few highly-regarded seminars / “boot camps”. I hate the term myself, but they REALLY DO WORK, and the networking contacts they bring into your life are awesome.

    But back to your questions. I’m particularly interested in:
    1. Your comments about TIMING
    2. Your access to statistical information
    3. Your breadth of PI reading

    Have you read Peter Spann’s “$10 Million Property Portfolio in just 10 Years?” (published 2004) or ever gone to one of his seminars? If “yes”, I’m thinking about Spann’s brilliant tips on how to PRACTICALLY APPLY Median Price Data to time your entry into the markets at the most advantageous point of a particular suburb’s cycle (Ch.13, pp56-66).

    I was so impressed with this chapter, I even invented a “212” mnemonic to help me remember and apply it:

    2 years + 1 year + 2 years = 5 year cycle

    2 = 1st 2 years of cycle: RELATIVELY FLAT GROWTH
    1 = 3year of cycle: STARTS MOVING UP
    2 = 4th and 5th years: MAJOR GROWTH SPURT
    ACTION/MORAL: Buy at the end of the 2nd year or early on in the 3rd year of the cycle

    Spann’s talking city suburban cycles here; I doubt it works so clearly in regional/rural towns, which are so sensitive to regional employment factors etc. Spann gives an example of suburbs which have risen ON AVERAGE 8% over a decade:

    “You’ll see that property growth comes in spurts…. many suburbs follow this pattern: two years flat, one year up, two years jump, followed by a repeat – two years flat, one year up, two years jump. Let’s look at this suburb’s growth and plot it. The first year is coming off a flat period. Very frequently a big growth spurt will follow a flat period like this. Then the growth rate kicks up tp 7% in year 2. This is our warning of the growth spurt to follow. If we had bought then we would have picked up the natural growth of the next couple of years. Year 3 the growth is 16% and year 4 the growth is 20%. If we had bought a $100,000 property at the end of the SECOND year in the cycle, it would be worth $139,000 at the end of year 4, or a growth of just over 39% in 2 years. And this is all pure profit to us. The growth rate then stagnates for a couple of years – no problem, we just sit and wait – and then it moves up to 8% for year 8. This is our warning of the next big jump, and we see 14% and 21% over the next 2 years. That would mean our $100,000 property would now be worth $233,000. Pretty exciting! While you don’t have to be this precise in timing property to make money over the long term, it will shorten the time it takes for your property to double in value and it saves you buying before the stagnant years.”

    Please forgive me if I come across as if I’m trying to teach you to suck eggs.”

    My point, Nobleone, is to keep reading, refining your knowledge, adding to your bank of due diligence research websites, read Spann, Otton, McKnight, Somers, (her books as well as her brilliant forum at http://www.somersoft.com.au), Burley, and the countless, bullet-proofed professionals you’ll meet on these forum boards. Keep in touch, and when you’ve made it, or while you are well on your way to making it, give back, okay?

    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by clintdb:

    I’m not an expert, but I believe that Australian Self Managed Super Funds (SMSF’s) cannot “borrow” for the purposes of investing…. could someone confirm the above for me. That is my understanding of the rules (my father has his own SMSF). Are there any tricks around the “no borrowing” rule? Regards, Clint

    Hi Clint

    If you want an authorative ruling on that one, you can do no better than PMing Julia Hartman:

    [email protected] .

    Julia is an eminently respected accountant on this forum (based in Brisbane and Sunshine Coast).

    Check out her http://www.bantacs.com.au website, click on the Free Books link for free pdf files of stacks of titles, download a few, and you’ll get a reasonably unbiased idea of what I’m talking about.

    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by Nobleone:
    Hi All, Thanks for your feedback… Now I’m happy that I’m looking at things correctly. Cheers, Nobleone [biggrin]

    Nobleone

    Don’t put this discussion to bed just yet. To me, the pivotal point is a spread of +ve cashflow (to help you survive and pass the bank’s servicibility test or DSR: Debt Servicing Ratio) with high growth but -ve CF (to keep giving you what Peter Spann calls “The Endless Deposit” for your future property purchases).

    I guess it depends on:
    1. How fast you want your portfolio to grow and
    2. How big you want your portfolio to get.

    There’s a lot more study needed on this question, Oh Noble One.[biggrin][buz2][cap]

    Cheers
    Greg

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    Originally posted by MichaelWhyte:
    My concern is that the market is softening and according to some analysts will stay soft until 2007/8 when it will start a gradual recovery. I work in the building industry so have access to a lot of market information on housing starts etc. Michael (REI NooB) PPS I have done my homework prior to posting, reading up extensively on Kiyosaki and Burley and others, not to mention a plethora of forum posts.

    Hi Michael

    Great post, and congrats on your determination.

    For my money, I can’t for the life of me see why you’re prepared to wait so long when this magnificent country of ours doesn’t have one single property market, but rather a plethora of mini-markets, many of them at vastly different stages of their OWN, PERSONALISED PROPERTY CYCLES.

    You’re clearly very professional and methodical in the way you go about things; all you need is a bit of “fine tuning” to make yourself into a real property tycoon. To this end, I’d urge you to set aside $5,000 – $10,000 for your personal professional development, and get yourself off to a few highly-regarded seminars / “boot camps”. I hate the term myself, but they REALLY DO WORK, and the networking contacts they bring into your life are awesome.

    But back to your questions. I’m particularly interested in:
    1. Your comments about TIMING
    2. Your access to statistical information
    3. Your breadth of PI reading

    Have you read Peter Spann’s “$10 Million Property Portfolio in just 10 Years?” (published 2004) or ever gone to one of his seminars? If “yes”, I’m thinking about Spann’s brilliant tips on how to PRACTICALLY APPLY Median Price Data to time your entry into the markets at the most advantageous point of a particular suburb’s cycle (Ch.13, pp56-66).

    I was so impressed with this chapter, I even invented a “212” mnemonic to help me remember and apply it:

    2 years + 1 year + 2 years = 5 year cycle

    2 = 1st 2 years of cycle: RELATIVELY FLAT GROWTH
    1 = 3year of cycle: STARTS MOVING UP
    2 = 4th and 5th years: MAJOR GROWTH SPURT
    ACTION/MORAL: Buy at the end of the 2nd year or early on in the 3rd year of the cycle

    Spann’s talking city suburban cycles here; I doubt it works so clearly in regional/rural towns, which are so sensitive to regional employment factors etc. Spann gives an example of suburbs which have risen ON AVERAGE 8% over a decade:

    “You’ll see that property growth comes in spurts…. many suburbs follow this pattern: two years flat, one year up, two years jump, followed by a repeat – two years flat, one year up, two years jump. Let’s look at this suburb’s growth and plot it. The first year is coming off a flat period. Very frequently a big growth spurt will follow a flat period like this. Then the growth rate kicks up tp 7% in year 2. This is our warning of the growth spurt to follow. If we had bought then we would have picked up the natural growth of the next couple of years. Year 3 the growth is 16% and year 4 the growth is 20%. If we had bought a $100,000 property at the end of the SECOND year in the cycle, it would be worth $139,000 at the end of year 4, or a growth of just over 39% in 2 years. And this is all pure profit to us. The growth rate then stagnates for a couple of years – no problem, we just sit and wait – and then it moves up to 8% for year 8. This is our warning of the next big jump, and we see 14% and 21% over the next 2 years. That would mean our $100,000 property would now be worth $233,000. Pretty exciting! While you don’t have to be this precise in timing property to make money over the long term, it will shorten the time it takes for your property to double in value and it saves you buying before the stagnant years.”

    Please forgive me if I come across as if I’m trying to teach you to suck eggs.

    Cheers
    Greg

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