Forum Replies Created
- Originally posted by foundation:
Philip Harvey – It’s a bit rude to go back and edit your previous posts after I’ve responded. I see I’ll have to quote you in full from now. Slow day at the REA office?[wink2]
And it is even worse to insinuate that someone has done that to cover the fact that what you said was an exaggeration………but then if you think the Japanese population increased by millions a year, then it seems exaggeration is possibly your strong point
Please feel free to quote me in full, but please don’t alter things to suit your own viewpoint.
REA – I suppose you know where I work then…….
[fez]
New to Property Investing, but have been following for a while
Originally posted by foundation:
Consider Japan, with around 128 million residents on 378,000 square kilometers vs Australia’s 20 million residents on 7,682,300 square kilometers. Last year their net population growth slowed to a tiny 640,000! They had positive population growth in the range of millions per annum over 14 years of consecutive falling house prices.I am not sure where you read that i said prices would double and double again……..I remember saying they would be alot higher, but can’t remember saying 200% higher.
As far as your attempt to “rebutt my postulating”……..Japanese population increased by 1.9m in 10 years………..would hardly call that millions per annum.
Anyway, back to the story of interest rates, I heard today that National Foods are looking at increasing the price of food by 3% to cover transport costs……this can only put more upwards pressure on inflation………….
New to Property Investing, but have been following for a while
Originally posted by foundation:I think this may be a fallacy of logic. Consider Japan, with around 128 million residents on 378,000 square kilometers vs Australia’s 20 million residents on 7,682,300 square kilometers. Last year their net population growth slowed to a tiny 640,000! They had positive population growth in the range of millions per annum over 14 years of consecutive falling house prices.
I am not sure that it is entirely correct to compare Australia to Japan, as the fundamentals and history are vastly different. The main being that Japan at the height of its boom was incredibly overvalued in all sectors. The NIKKEI dropped from around 40,000 to 9,000……..the banks in Japan are only just starting to finish writing off the bad debts of the 80’s.
However, if you were to compare the two, from 1995 until 2005, the Japanese population has increased from 125,600,000 to 127,400,000 (1.4% increase) and Australia’s has increased from 18,200,000 to 20,100,000 (10.4% increase). The projections are for the Australian population to reach about 23m in 2024. I think it is fair to say that in the next 20 years the Japanese population will not be 146m……….
[medieval]
New to Property Investing, but have been following for a while
Hi and thankyou to all who post on this forum.
I am only new to property investing, but have been following for a while (while I have been renovating my first property!!).
With regards to the recent interest rate “hike”, as a potential property investor, I am looking at this as a positive……..also I don’t see 0.25% as a hike.
I must admit I had a small chuckle to myself when one of the current affairs shows did a story on the interest rate increase. One couple said that the wife would have to go and get a job to pay for the increase……..incidently they had a $200,000 mortgage, which equated to a $500/year increase. Another said he had to sell his house. If people live beyond their means, what do they expect…….
Anyway, I am looking at it from the following angle:
1. I plan on building my portfolio to at least 15+ properties in the next few years, depending on finances and market forces.
2. I do not intend to sell these in the next 15 years, as selling properties will not build my portfolio (unless of course there are ridiculous capital gains to be made!!)
3. If i am going to buy something I want to be able to get it at the lowest price possible. More pressure on demand (ie petrol prices, interest rates, etc) helps me with this.
4. Whilst the above will put short term pressure on demand, the population of Australia is increasing, and as a result long term demand will continue to increase.
4. Prices for property in 10-20 years will be much higher than now based on long term demand increasing.Surely this recent i/r increase combined with petrol prices can only be an opportunity.
With regards to the resources boom, my partner travels frequently to China for business. One city that had a population of 12m 4 years ago now has over 20m………and this is only one of many cities (that no-one outside China has even heard of). She said that in the past 12 months, the city has transformed itself and everyone there is employed/positive……….I find it hard to comprehend that resources will crash, although I agree with sentiment that it will cool down.
Now that WA has reached levels comparable to Eastern states, and the fact that I don’t think resources will continue to increase, I will be concentrating my efforts on Bris / Syd / Melb…..but being selective with any purchases.
Am I being naive??
New to Property Investing, but have been following for a while
