Paullie
Just a quite word here and there in the halls, a beer with a Polly or two and the usual chatter… nothing to worry about….

Paullie
I know enough by your comments.

 co

Are rising Australian home prices good the economy?

http://www.shareswatch.com.au/blog/investing/are-rising-australian-home-prices-good-the-economy/

Often lost in the debate about house and home prices in Australia is the discussion regarding if our national obsession with housing is good or bad for the overall economy.  Instead of rejoicing that residential real estate prices in Australia rose during the global financial crisis, maybe we should be looking a little closer at why prices are rising to see what problems this might be causing.

I am not going to touch on the subject of whether Australian home prices will rise or fall in the short to medium term or if housing is a good investment or not, since much of this has already been previously covered in a variety of articles which can be found on the Australian House Prices and Real Estate Discussion page of this site.

Paullie
What is ridiculous?

DWolf
Correct, our death rates double over the next 25 years and as the boomers depart the planet, big changes will unfold in property.
I still feel we need to do many things now and create an anti-speculation environment going forward.

For me, I will buy somewhere on the Sunshine Coast. Probably acreage. Not too much in cash, in any one bank anyway and I hold gold and silver. I have done really well on PUTS on Stockland over the last 6 months and expect a few of my long shorts to also do well. Made a good deal on WFM.AU last year and still looking at ServiceStream.

I am advising investors to look at Towns like Toowoomba and other regional cities, with a UNI, as the yields are quite good. If there is a 40% fall, who cares if you are getting the rents. Correct? Many should move out of equities into a SMSF with some high yield residential. That is my advice, for what it is worth.

nevertoolate
1. Yes many will be underwater and currently are.
2. People have always lied to cheat the dole etc. That does not mean reform is not needed.
3. Good point about land tax on agriculture land. This will need to be addressed.
4. people living alone is not good for their health, as medical research has shown. Isolation is not good.
5. Yes, under $40k and no tax. That helps the poor.
6. Capping rents after natural disasters or mining booms is required now. Greed is not a good reason not to.
7. A marriage tax reduction is going through in the UK now. No one would be expected, or would, stay in a bad relationship.
8. You do not seem to know about our peaking emigration. Quite a problem, given that it costs society approx $250k to bring up and educate these people leaving.

Glad you joined in and thank you for your thinking and sharing.

1. No tax payable for the value to $1 million. Sell at $1.5 million and 20% of the $500k is $100k.
2. Net estate on death/inheritance, after mortgages and all debts repaid.

ummester
Mmmmm…. a 'love bubble'. I like it.

fword
1/3 of boomers do not want to leave any inheritance. Not a good stat to be proud of. Much the same across western nations.
Immigration means we now have 5.2 million boomers from the 4.1 million born here. 80% will require full or part pension. It did not work and only kicked the can down the road. Various govt departments have proven that immigration will not substantially change the fiscal impact of our ageing nation.

1. They will be less workers per dependent as our participation rates start their decline. Less people to pay more tax, if you want to get the revenues from the workers.

2. Emigration – peaking
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/05emigration.htm
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/05emigration_1.htm – they have not updated the chart and it was approx 88,000 last financial year.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/emigration-rises-as-aussies-bail-out/story-e6freooo-1226200172844

3. Population growth does not dictate house prices changes. We have 22% of our homes now as lone occupants and rising to 32%, so our real people per household is 3.14 for the non-lone occupants.

4. Certainly the anti-speculation laws on residential property in Germany kept a lid on massive bubbles or massive falls. It certainly made housing more affordable.

5. Decentralisation is a good idea on many levels.

6. On public housing. 18 public single bedroom units just got built in my area, less than 50 meters from what were million dollar plus units. It has already happened and no slum was created.

7. We certainly do not have affordable housing in Australia….yet.

8. My projections of 29 million and then decline stays well within the UN projections.

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm

fword
1. 1/3 of our population growth in real numbers is our demographic momentum, or more people living longer.
2. 66% of our NOM are temporary Visa holders.
3. We are currently experiencing peak emigration.
4. What do you think the June population growth percentage will be? My guess 1.3% (0.7% is our natural growth)
5. In the next 25 years our death rates double and anti-immigration is already taking hold.
6. From my sociological studies and research, Australia will peak at approx 29 million and then decline in population, some time around 2040.
7. From 2006, international students who are here for longer than 12 months, get included in our official population growth percentage, thus the false peak of 2.1%.