Forum Replies Created
Hi Josh, good post as usual. The strikes are a thorn in the side for BMA in particular, and the region in general. Yesterday BHP made an announcement that further job losses are inevitable in the coal industry, and that high production costs are a contributing factor to their decision to cut jobs. While there are a number of negatives impacting on the coal industry beyond the control of Australians, it is possible for us to control the employer-employee relationship. I noticed also that about 2 weeks? ago BHP and the unions said progress had been made on an agreement, and dependent primarily on site specific details being ironed out, a solution was anticipated. Let's hope that happens soon.
Here's a link to an article concerning the purchase of water rights by Gina Rinehart, apparently for use by Hancock Coal.
This looks like a very controversial move to me. I believe she should be looking at financing the Connors river dam herself, rather than buying other people's water. I posted this link on another spot on the forum, but since it might be overlooked there, I'm putting it here too to draw attention to it.
http://www.cqnews.com.au/story/2012/08/17/producers-alarmed-as-water-allocations-sold/
Gina is apparently looking for alternative water supplies. I think this approach is unethical and should be stopped. Perhaps it should be suggested to her that she might finance the construction of the Connors river dam herself.
http://www.cqnews.com.au/story/2012/08/17/producers-alarmed-as-water-allocations-sold/
Hi Sunny
I would suggest that first you should scratch Moranbah and Dysart from your list. Both have had huge increases in entry price recently, and both are dependent on coal. Coal prices are currently low and some mines are reducing staff and cutting back on expansion plans. As towns dependent on single industries, they are both at the upper levels of risk. You might consider looking at areas with the potential to benefit from the investment into LNG gas. Huge projects are underway involving 1000s of employees, but real estate prices in many affected areas have already gone up substantially, so careful research and thought are required.
With your first IP it is very important to get off to a good start. As pointed out by other members here, mining towns are riskier areas to invest, but the returns can compensate, but you must be aware of the risks and attempt to balance them. Be careful.
Good Luck
I thought I was the luckiest kid in the world, with nature. I could walk through the forest. I could hear the animals. I could hear the woods talk to me. Everywhere I looked there was life. I could pick my own apples or cucumbers. I could eat the berries and pawpaws. I love pawpaws. And they gooseberries. I wouldn’t trade that childhood for all the fancy fire trucks and toys the other kids had.
I know this place, Freckle. I grew up there. I hope to get back there one day, but it always seems to be just out of reach. Good luck to you, too, mate. I hope we both find what we're looking for.
Here's an article about land releases in some of the High yielding, high price Queensland towns. More cause for caution by anyone considering investing there.
http://www.cqnews.com.au/story/2012/08/08/land-releases-for-our-crippled-towns/
I forgot to suggest you should read the comments below the article. The increases are widespread and exhorbitant.
And labour are patting themselves on the back while they tell us the sky hasn't fallen down yet because of the carbon tax. There's been very little time yet for the increased costs to become apparent and filter down to the end payer. The pat on the back should be delayed…. it will eventuate into a kick in the ass.
Hi Again Freckle
The information and opinions you bring to the forum are all valuable, and should be absorbed and considered by all as they emphasis the fact that caution is required in order to reduce the risk of making bad decisions. My personal assessment of the investment environment leads me to the conclusion that I should continue to focus on the positive opportunities which present themselves. The other obvious options are to do nothing, or short stocks. I find neither of those appealing. I am unaware of any other strategy which would take advantage of focusing on the negatives.
I see that on the thread "recovery from 2012" Nooob has inquired about your investment strategy. I'm also curious what that might be.
Cheers, Tony
"And there is of course the opposite to that position. Those who are prone to positive bias and jump in with both feet. I'm neither pro nor con most markets. They are either opportunities to be taken or avoided subject to risk reward trade-offs. The trick with most investing is try and stay objective without letting too much bias creep in from either way."
Hi Freckle
I have invested in other markets, but prefer the property market for a number of reasons, but most of all for the degree of control which I have over a property which i own. I have 20 years experience working as a carpenter watching, working with and learning from tradesmen efficient in every aspect of home construction. I still maintain my carpenter license, and am legally qualified to apply my skills to improve my properties, which are carefully selected for potential to manufacture equity. I buy houses in one of the most stable countries in the world, which has an economy that is currently envied by most of the world. One of the sectors of that economy which currently gives it such strength is mining, which is based on a diverse range of resources, including iron ore, gold, coal and gas, in large and widespread deposits which are also the envy of most of the world. These deposits are currently being extracted at a record pace, with record investment, yielding record profits. I factor the mining industry into my property investment strategy, currently focused primarily though not exclusively on "muscle towns" with diverse industries supporting the local economies. I read extensively, and do the best I can to analyze the endless amount of information available, some of which is generously supplied by you, which might be pertinent to my investment decisions. The research required to reduce the risk of a bad decision is very time consuming, requiring analysis of global, nationwide, regional and local influences. My decisions are never impetuous. My properties are all selected for a combination of cash flow and capital growth expectations, as well as features easily improved upon to manufacture equity which I can tap for additional deposits. I travel to inspect before I make offers. I am currently employed in the mining industry, and have a secure position with a good income, which would be capable of servicing my debts if my cash flow should reduce, a contingency which I am prepared for although I do not anticipate that it will eventuate.
I have previously worked in the head office of a listed mining company, as I believe you have from previous mention. I have personally witnessed directors return from four and five hour sessions of drinking their lunch on the shareholders tab, and then making spontaneous phone calls to business associates while drunk, blind and stupid. I have also witnessed them cold stone sober planning the timing of announcements to the stock market to suit their own personal gain. I'm also aware of occasions when they have "beefed up" exploration results to increase the share price prior to rights issues. They've also delayed the announcement of good exploration results in order to allow themselves time to take up their entire entitlement to rights issues prior to an anticipated share price increase. With the knowledge that such abuses of the trust placed in them by shareholders occurs, my confidence in the security of the share market has been severely eroded. Even if I could control all of the external factors which make stocks risky investments, I would still be confident that property investment offers far greater personal control, thus resulting in less risk.
Listing all the positives about property investment, and Australia's property market in particular, would be a waste of time and space, and I'm sure you're as well aware of them as I am, but I think you should be able to see that my positive bias has not led me to jump in with both feet. My motivation for continuing to invest in property is not to hang and be seen with the pro property crowd. I have every intention of continuing to profit from my investments, and my confidence and positive outlook are based on a carefully thought out and implemented strategy.
Hi Freckle
You have as usual made some valid points worthy of consideration…
"It's irrelevant whether or not information is negative or positive. It's all just market information. What is important is how credible, useful and informative the info is. Markets ebb and flow on information. Investors live and die on the accuracy, credibility and timing of market intelligence"
I agree completely with the above statement. I suppose my issue with the prevalence of negativity in the media is the fact that a lot of it is based on opinion, incomplete or biased data or faulty analysis and presented as fact. And predictions of some "economists" are heralded by the press as though the Messiah has spoken.
While I also accept that a degree of it is accurate, and conditions for the mining sector of the economy have clearly changed, I believe there are still many opportunities available for property investors in regions supported by diverse industries, including mining. And as property investment is best entered into with a long-term outlook, I also believe that the mining cycle will again turn in favor of those invested in areas which have potential to benefit from resources. The investment in LNG and rail which is currently underway clearly demonstrates that some powerful corporations believe the same.
And if I allowed myself to be unduly influenced by the "doom sayers" I would bury my head in the barren sand and miss out on those opportunities. So my choice is to look for the positives on offer.
Cheers, Tony
Here's a good article discussing the longevity of the "mining boom", or perhaps more appropriately the "resources revolution". There are two paragraphs in particular which appeal to my investing philosophy…
"As a nation, we need to stop moaning and start embracing the opportunities. It’s been four years since the onset of the GFC. Australia’s economy has been strong throughout, yet we persist with paranoia about Europe. Asia continues to boom, yet we continue to worry how long it will last. And the opportunities for our mining sector are enormous, yet we’re trying to predict how long it will last.
Those of us who naturally have aspirations for success look at problems and see solutions. Those of us who are naturally positive people don’t sit idle because of perceived risks; we look to mitigate and maximize opportunities. And those of us looking for confirmation don’t look towards governments or the media; we look at industry leaders and achievers."
The rest of the article is here:
It's good to see a few more positive articles finally emerging to counter the prevalence of negative articles, statements and comments which the media focuses on. To me, success depends on optimism. Pessimism sets us up for defeat before our first step is taken. I see a lot of opportunities in our property markets now. There are cycles within cycles, and although commodity prices are currently down compared to recent highs, investment is ongoing in the resource regions, at all-time high levels, and the benefits from this will continue for some time. I believe, as many analysts do, that a resurgence in demand and prices is inevitable, and the best time to position oneself for future success is now. And I am absolutely certain that I have nothing to gain by adopting a pessimistic outlook
Here's a new twist. Some potential tenents training for mining jobs.
http://www.dailymercury.com.au/story/2012/07/28/criminals-eye-mine-jobs/
Hey Dubstep interesting reading. Looks like Campbell Newman might be angling for a political or personal donation from Gina and the Indians to get the dam built.
And a more positive article about the coal market…
And a negative on the impact of the Norwich Park mine closure on Dysart
http://www.cqnews.com.au/story/2012/07/27/fractured-town-spirit-takes-toll-on-families-resid/
And although I prefer positives, there are definitely some negative elements emerging…
http://www.cqnews.com.au/story/2012/07/27/contractors-take-brunt-of-thermal-coal-slump/
Here's an article that will be of interest to Dysart's property investors. Oh yeah, I forgot the boom is over, so don't read this.
LEIGHTON'S mining services arm, Thiess, has won a $2.3 billion contract to extend operations at Jellinbah Group's Lake Vermont coal mine in Queensland's Bowen Basin.
The six-year agreement will double production from 4 million tonnes to 8mt a year, and continues Thiess's responsibility at Lake Vermont for mine operations and maintenance.
Thiess managing director Bruce Munro said, "Thiess is very proud to continue its involvement at the Lake Vermont mine where we've been working with the Jellinbah Group from the very beginning to plan, build and operate the mine."
Michael Wright, the Thiess executive general manager for Australian mining, said the extended operations would bring opportunities for the people of Dysart, about 20km from Lake Vermont Mine, which now employs 350 people.
"The contract is reward for their performance, their daily commitment to the safety of our people and to meeting our clients' objectives," Mr Wright said
"We are mobilising ultra-class mining fleets to meet the increased production requirements and we are truly excited by the opportunities this brings to the people of the Dysart area."
Jellinbah Group chief executive Greg Chalmers said the continuation of Thiess as the mine's long-term operator ensured its on-going delivery of competitively priced coal.
"We look forward to working closely with Thiess to maximise the value of Lake Vermont and continue the mine as a safe, reliable, responsible and productive operation,'' Mr Chalmers said.
Hi NHG
Who is "They" that says they have too much coal? That statement should come with some form of varification or it is not worth repeating. We are all aware that China's rapid expansion has been reined in by their government, and the European issues are having negative impacts throughout the world. However, China's government appears to be happy with the current rate of growth, and apparently are taking measures to maintain a growth rate of around 7-8%. As a natural consequence of the uncertain future in Europe and concern about the ability of China to balance their economy, mining companies are rethinking their expansion plans, and in some cases delaying projects while they reassess and wait to see where the chips fall. If Europe manages to stay away from the cliff's edge, and if China"s growth continues at the current rate, demand for resources should remain high. I think we're in a bit of a "let's wait and see" phase, but it's too early to let negativity prevail.
In Muswellbrook, the final construction decision for Mount Pleasant mine has apparently been delayed by Rio Tinto as they reassess their entire portfolio of new and planned projects. However, in the last couple of weeks they have begun an upgrade to Wybong Road, which is a requirement of the development consent for Mount Pleasant.
At the Mangoola mine, Xstrata have recently received approval to relocate the 10KVA powerline that bisects the mine. They have initiated preliminary measures to prepare for the process of moving those lines, at a great cost. They are also going ahead with plans to construct a handling system to bypass the washing plant with the highest quality coal mined on the site.They are currently continuing the ongoing process of hireing more staff and operational personnel.
I have heard on the grapevine that BHP's Mount Arthur mine has stopped hiring at the moment, after a previous large intake, but I have no personal knowledge to shed any light on what is happening there.
From my own observations, I am aware that there has been a VERY high demand for fitters in the Hunter Valley and other mining areas. I would be very surprised if your mates encounter in difficulty in finding suitable employment.Cheers, Tony
The market in Muswellbrook is on the move now. I've just spoken to my agent there, and he has confirmed that current demand is high and prices are rising. His agency has leased as many properties so far this year as they did all last year. A search on real estate.com confirms that listings are low and prices increaseing. Here are some articlesa from the local newspaper this month…
http://www.muswellbrookchronicle.com.au/news/local/news/general/housing-crisis/2615072.aspxAnd more news about Galilee projects…delays, but very ambitious projects with optimistic schedules requiring approvals from handicapped governments are inevitably late. http://www.dailymercury.com.au/story/2012/07/12/mine-jobs-backburner/
Feasability study for Galilee Basin rail by Adani and QR National underway. And the media highlights commentators speculating that the resource boom is over. The mining companies don't think so. http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/queensland/rail-line-for-queenslands-gailee-baisin-mooted-with-feasibility-study-underway/2012070555410?utm_source=Property+Observer+List&utm_campaign=8c150268a8-July_6_20124_10_2012&utm_medium=email
It appears as though one wages dispute may be resolved. However, this is only the one with Wesfarmers, not the big one with BMA.
http://www.cqnews.com.au/story/2012/06/20/pay-rise-seals-the-deal/