Forum Replies Created
- crashy wrote:herbpeterson wrote:I doubt mining companies will close and walk away from massive resources (that they can't take with them)
for very long. People don't seem to consider it is also an investment for the company, you can't easily liquidate the resources,
and buy something down the road.
this is the biggest misconception about mines. people assume that because they pull the stuff out of the ground it costs them nothing, when the reality is the costing of mining the resource is often more than the base price. Also demand is often irregular but staff & machinery must be keep operating regardless of whether there is work or not.
so YES, mines do and have closed frequently in the past and certainly will now that we are entering a depression.
True story . These places are often running on so much borrowed money too and costing an absolute fortune to run even for one day , the numbers are staggering !
So if things stop cookin they can be in very serious trouble within a 'very 'short period of time , even just a few weeks and can soon have no choice but to close unfortunately.Cheers
lifeX wrote:Rule of thumb,Unless you are sworn at and chased off the property with a broom – you offered too much.
Mister –
Uh ha , I've finally found the perfect strategy . I new I hung around here for a reason . LifeX , I hope you don't mind but I'm adopting this one as my rule of thumb from this day forth .
Cheers
craigsed wrote:Interesting to see how people think they are making rational predictions of the future based on what they 'believe'. Just look at how many times the word has been used in this topic so far.Dictionary definition of belief:
1. The mental act, condition, or habit of placing trust or confidence in another: My belief in you is as strong as ever.2. Mental acceptance of and conviction in the truth, actuality, or validity of something: His explanation of what happened defies belief.3. Something believed or accepted as true, especially a particular tenet or a body of tenets accepted by a group of persons.As you can see BELIEVING in something is far from something being a fact. How many people would really like to substitute BELIEVE for HOPE/WISH/PRAY?
None of the luminaries quoted above claim to know the future (as far as I can tell). They are making informed assumptions based on history and also on what is presently known. This may be enough to get a pretty good handle on what will happen and over what time period…. or it may not. So far the pace and depth of this financial turmoil has caught the financial boffins out many times, with regularly downgraded expectations being issued. Each time they make a revised prediction they are admitting they got the last one wrong.
My point is that whilst we all need to prepare for the future, it is largely unknown at present – this event takes us into new territory.
For every commentator you can find that says the recession will be shallow and last six months you can find another who will say we are heading for a depression and it will last for years. For every economist who says the Australian property market will hold up well as we have a huge undersupply of homes and way less sub-prime (type) loans than the USA, you can find another to say that there are actually a huge number of available (vacant) homes and that affordability is at an all time low and property is going to fall 40%!
If you must seek out expert opinion to help you decide what to do, what qualities might you look for in your guide? As a start:
1. proven track record of making broadly correct forecasts of macro events
2. old enough to have lived through (managed funds/investments) at least a few financial cycles
3. has his/her own money on the line
4. does not have an agenda in setting public opinion (this knocks out ninety-something percent of them doesn't it – nearly all of them are pushing some wheel-barrow even if it is not obvious). Even when it might not be obvious (a supposedly innocuous economist for example) – how many of these poor, otherwise pitiful creatures seek out their 15 minutes of fame with headline grabbing statements when the opportunity arisesJim Rogers is probably one of the few commentators I can think of that comes close to fitting the bill, though others may well disagree.
The thing that scares me the most is that we are going to have to rely (mostly) on politicians to fix this. As has already been demonstrated any institution deemed 'to big to fail' is going to be bailed out (note current definition of bailout seems to imply passing over at least enough funds to continue paying executive bonuses – ha ha). So the option of allowing the week to fail and getting a clean start is apparently not an option (for better or worse). The decision has been taken that the western world will buy it's way out this problem. Didn't work for Japan, but what do they know hey???? The man spending the big bucks (Obama) has submitted his plan – part 1, version 1. Despite the rhetoric it includes as much pork barrelling as could be stuffed into the package – only a small percentage seems destined for true infrastructure development and jobs creation activity (key stated objectives). And it is to be implemented (if passed as it stands) with highly protectionist clauses, despite history indicating protectionism contributed significantly to the length and depth of the Great Depression.
In summary, I BELEIVE that the machinations of politics will ensure this current downtrend will last longer and cut deeper than it otherwise would have. That's a fact I will be counting on……..
Craig.
Hi Graig.
I mean your right in allot of ways . Basing something on what you believe doesn't seem very factual does it but it does also depend on your own track record as far as instincts go and mine are usually right and in most case I can count on them.
Not always but most.Any extremely successfully person will tell you their success as much come from following their instincts , doing things as they believe and often in despite of what is being advised or recommend , as anything else . Often it is the main reason for their success . They usually do and think 'very differently' and have bloody good instincts in their field .
Most stock markets reports were predicting 73-7600 in 08 , only a few were saying it was burnt out and due for a major correction . Most said we can depend on China in 08-09 , I doubt it but time will tell .
I felt there was no way the stock market could have kept it up through 08 – 09 so I pulled out most of my stuff like RIO at 108$ and 112$ .
I kept a little and look at it now , should be back one day but me still upset as not rich yet .
Really at the end of the day , what I thought was all I had to go on . The opinions great and small were as diverse as you could possibly get .Realestates the same . Listen to it all and you hear everything from major 10yr dump, to a soft landing – to a boom .
And everyone has their reasons and logical arguments that all make sense and most are experts in the field , just like the stock market – so what do ya do .From my experience at the end of the day your left with your own assessment and that's pretty well about it .
Cheers
harb wrote:Peak Oil wrote:And all the rubbish that China would save our butt , what a joke with China being on one the longest and most massive rampages out doing the rest of us put together , of course it's gonna slow . I wouldn't be at all surprised if China slips in the deepest recession on record .When you say recession do you mean a real recession or a slowdown of GDP growth to 7%-8%?
I can't see the Chinese going into a real recession simply because they don't have to. With all that talk of China joining the world economies its easy to forget that banks and businesses are owned by the state who also control prices, interest rates, the currency, job creation and virtually everything else that our politicians could only dream off. And unlike our system were politicians are too scared of losing their jobs and perks if they make the hard decisions the Chinese don't have that problem.Quote:The simple facts were , Australia is just an ordinary country it's not Tuscany or the Bahamas so what possibly sustainably justifies 7 and 8 times the average wage in house prices or cost of living ?
Then the direction Howard let prices and lack of scruples on ' everything ' and everyone in this country run riot , I mean who would believe it could continue on that path with no consequence ?I don't see it as house prices being twice as expensive as they should be but rather our income being half what is should be. And while its easy to blame Howard for the current situation, specially if you are an ALP supporter, the fact is our problems began much earlier then 1996. They started in 1983 with Keating's Prices and Incomes Accord where workers gave up their right to decent wage increases in exchange for a promise by Hawke and Keating to control inflation. The workers kept their end of the bargain and got screwed while Keating came up with a new excuse and new Accord almost every year until his final Accord Mark VIII after which the voters saw him for the BS artist he was.
Quote:I've also believed for years that there is no rental crisis or housing shortage .I agree with you there is no housing shortage as such. There are plenty of vacant houses, just not in the right locations. All these people who think they are to precious to live in the outback or undesirable suburbs should be trapped while queuing at rental open houses and forcibly relocated to other areas where rental properties are available and towns are dying.
Quote:Personally I think the average Joe feels that orrr, prices are flattening , nows a great time to get a bargain for 3 or 400 k so along with FHOG they think they're doing well . Unfortunately I still think those prices will prove ridiculous in the long run.
If past history is anything to go by you could be right , those prices will prove ridiculously cheap since every recession is followed by a boom.
Quote:Because one , FH owners need a hand to even get close to in the door now – even though they shouldn't actually be buying now if they can wait but two , so much extends from the building and housing industry .
Atleast keeping those areas ticking over if nothing else surely does have to help atleast a bit. !Actually FHBs looking to buy at the very low end of the market based on price alone should have bought as soon as the increased FHOG was announced. Waiting until now just gives them less properties to pick from and the best picks gone, competition from investors hunting for CF +ve IPs and sellers less willing to negotiate the further the rates drop. The best time to buy IS when everyone else is in a panic and selling.
Personally Harb now this is just MO but I believe there'll be allot of Chinese businessmen jumping off all those cranes on the 1/2 finished high rises in the next few years myself .
They will have to feel a massive pinch from the rest of the worlds troubles and at the same time be due for burn out !Keating , dunno . I did own my first property through the 17% ters and know one thing . Even with that life was still a hell of allot easier than lately and that's been proven , by a long shot .
As far as the rest of his work , dunno that either , certainly didn't look too flash , hated politics back then .Rentals , yep people are getting ridiculous I know . My mum and dad started of in the biggest shithole you've ever seen but eh it was only a start .
House prices now , Harb the panic selling hasn't even begun yet so how do we know ., Give it 12 mths.
Same with history , how can we know until we've had the future once again . Couldn't see it though myself but JMO .Cheers
; "Devil"){kind=small}
