Forum Replies Created
Hi Guys,
Phil, spare lovin? You’re a naughty, naughty boy… And thanks for the offer of a round of golf. I’ll check with the Captain (wife, who else) and see whether she’ll allow me to squeeze a round in to our schedule. It would be awesome to catch up for a social game whilst I was in the hood!
Steph, thanks so much for the congrats! One year is a big deal to us as its been a long time coming. We were dating for 10 years before we bit the bullet. [blush2] But now we’re stoked and just loving life and each other. For all you procrastinators out there, just do it! Seriously!! And, Steph, congratulations to you and hubby too! Feels great doesn’t it? [biggrin] We were married on the 24th January so only a few days different to you.
Greg, yeah I knew Andre had passed away. Very sad indeed, he was a nice guy. He used to be a professional wrestler in the WWF, but I’m sure you knew that too. (PS I love that “Anybody wanna peanut” quote. It still made me laugh to read it and remember the scene, thanks…)
Catcha,
Michael.Marsden,
Again, some good points. I guess my take on it is that the BBs will be retiring and, by necessity, downsizing. This will increase the “supply” side of the property ledger. The question is whether the “demand” side will stay at current levels or maybe even drop of the BB investors come out of the market. If this happens then more sellers and the same number (or less) buyers would reduce the selling prices of property. Basic economics 101 demand and supply curves.
However, I don’t think we can maintain our economy at current levels if this were to occur, so the government will need to intervene in some regard. I believe the only way this can happen in a timely manner is via immigration. We cannot have a disproportionate number of retirees, its unsustainable. Call me an optimist, but I rely on the government to regulate the economy. If they don’t act then you’re right: its all doom and gloom.
Cheers,
Michael.Phil / Steph,
Can I plead no response on the grounds that I may incriminate myself? [biggrin]
Sorry I’ve been off the net for a while, that’s one of the problems with getting paid a big salary, sometimes you have to earn it! Its been a big cuppla days.
Steph, I think you’re on to something with the GenXers being more work focussed and the GenYers returning to family values. GenY seem to be getting married earlier and focussing on family over all else. Being a GenX I can bear this out. I wasn’t married until I was 34, and had been dating my wife for 10 years, living together for about 3. So, a GenX afraid of commitment, that’s me for sure. Now I’m married I wouldn’t have it any other way.
My wife and I have talked about kids and I told her that we were financially secure if she wanted to take time off work to look after our firstborn then that was OK. She said that she doesn’t have a maternal bone in her body and wouldn’t let her career stagnate at the stage its at right now. (I’m the one that would really like to start a family…) So, if we were to have a kid, the plan is to hire a full time live-in nanny to look after the kiddie so we can both continue to develop our careers for now. Sounds a bit whacky I guess. Does this make us bad people? Hope not…
I guess we also break the mold on GenXers being spend big debt accumulators. We’re almost debt free on our PPOR and both my wife and I are professionals on bigh salaries. We’re not into conspicuous consumption, but invest wisely for the future. Debt is absolutely not an issue for us, its what gives us leverage.
Cheers,
Michael.OK, try this one, (the octopus reminded me), apologies in advance:
Man walks into a bar… He sits down and places a tiny piano on the bar. He then opens his duffle bag and pulls out a tiny monkey and sits him by the piano.
He offers to have the monkey play the piano if the barman buys him a round of drinks and the barman, seeing some free entertainment in the offering, agrees. The man tells the monkey to play Bethoven and the monkey nods once, composes himself then dives in to the best rendition of Symphony No 5 that the publican or his clientelle have ever heard.
One of the patrons, so impressed, walks up and asks the man where he found such an amazing monkey.
The man explains how, when on holiday in egypt, he found a magic bottle which he dutifully rubbed to produce an amazing Genie. The Genie, of course, offered 3 wishes.
His first two wishes he wasted on wine and women, but his third resulted in this magical monkey.
“That’s amazing” the other man says, “I’d never have conceived of wishing for a monkey that plays the piano?”
Wait for it…
“Are you crazy?” the man with the monkey says, “Do you really think I wished for a 12 inch pianist?”!! [biggrin]
Sorry ’bout that one…
Michael.Greg,
SNAP! That is SO my favourite movie of all time too. I just love Andre the Giant, not to mention Billy Crystal and the whole “to blaive, which means to bluff” to which his wife the witch replies “lyer!” and chases him around the house. [biggrin]
That is one of the best feel-good movies of all time! Seriously!!
Richmond, I’ve got to add my congratulations here too. Enjoy! My wife and I were married in January this year and are counting down to our first anniversary too. We’re just about to head back to the Whitsundays for a Honeymoon MkII. The first one was so much fun, we figured we just had to do it again. [biggrin]
I’m a bit of a fan of Steven Covey, and his “principle-centredness”. I believe I am a principled person and I “invest” more time in my family and friends than I ever do in making the cold hard stuff.
Steph, I love the point about how much worse you’d be without your partner. That one keeps me smiling too. No matter how big the argument, we always kiss and make up. [blush2]
Merry Christmas all you beautiful people,
Michael.[xmas]
Femaleage20,
Great work! I regularly buy my Christmas presents from the WorldVision catalogues, or from New Internationalist or others. In this way, not only do your loved ones get some fantastic gifts, but you’re giving a gift to the less well off who don’t enjoy the standard of living that we do and could do with some Christmas cheer.
I always throw a couple of the little things in the gift basket for family such as the Coffee direct from East Timor which cuts out the middle man. And I buy the Christmas cards for $30-$50 each which give a child a year in school or a year in food etc.
There’s always creative ways to give if you’re generous of spirit.
Great stuff,
Michael.LifeX,
Great post! I read Crashy’s in detail and I could tell he missed the point, but I can understand this based on his explanation of his past.
I think everybody who posted on this thread would agree Christmas is a time for family and for giving. I too will be hosting Christmas at my place this year and not counting the cost. I’ve got the whole extended family coming over and am throwing the biggest spread I can manage with roast turkey and lamb, cold leg of ham and largesse in every regard.
I’m not skimping on the pressies either. I’m buying my niece a $1,000 share portfolio this year as she just turned 5. I do this with all my nieces and nephews when they turn 5.
Crashy, if you read my post I poked fun at the “tightwad” gift givers. ie. the mad aunt that gives that silly gift and wouldn’t notice if it bounced back. I have a tightwad Aunt and a tightwad Sister but I don’t let that turn me into a tightwad. In fact I buy great presents for them both every year and don’t care that they don’t reciprocate even though its well within their means.
I think this thread was heavily steeped in sarcasm and self indulgence. It was clearly not meant to be read as a literal prescription for actual things to do over Christmas.
I’m sorry, but the “only joking” certainly holds true for this thread. Ambo72 had a major frown emoticon on his post about working Christmas. This means he “wasn’t happy” with the situation. And all the smilies in the other posts should hint at the sarcasm in play.
Seriously, it is the season to be jolly and you should take a leaf out of your own judgmental book and apply this thinking prior to posting.
Merry Christmas to you and your family,
Michael.[xmas]
Guys,
I don’t think the bust that BIS Shrapnel are forecasting is predicated in any way on the Baby Boomers. Its just a simple macro-economic projection based on the current level of foreign debt and our ability to service that debt. It includes the current lack of affordibility of housing and the likely impact of this as well as currency markets etc.
There’s no question that property boomed to far and all of the current indices point to a major correction. Its just that BIS Shrapnel are forecasting a gradual correction culminating in an economic bust in 2008. Our current economic conditions are similar to that of the Keating years when he predicted the “Recession that we had to have”.
Don’t get too caught up on the Baby Boomers, this is more of an economic outlook than some crystal ball gazing based on demographic adjustments.
Cheers,
Michael.Aussierogue,
Thanks for the well wishes with my masters, but its an MBA not a M-Ec. I know, before anyone jumps in, these aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on nowadays. [biggrin] But hey, it let me at least understand the posts on economics so that’s a good thing. I actually enjoyed the Applied Micro-Economics subject a lot (makes me a sick puppy I know), but it sorted of pulled a lot of stuff together for me. Basic demand/supply curves, economies of scale/scope, market interventions, net social gain/surplus etc etc. Really interesting stuff. I’m still a Leftist greenie hippy type tho’…
Greg, Don’t worry. A trip up to your neck of the woods is definately on the cards. My wife’s parents have actually moved to Bundy now so we’ve got another excuse to go check out the block of land. I found out from Kay that its actually at Goondoon Rd Bundgadoo (sp?), and not actually in Bundaberg itself. But hey it was a lifestyle purchase and not part of some grand investment strategy. I trust you and Niki are well? As for the Whitsundays, we’re chartering a 10m Catemaran (Seawind 1000) so we can hop from mooring to mooring. We did this for our honeymoon and in so doing went in to a draw to win a prize. You guessed it, this trip (value $3K) is the prize!
Some people are just born lucky, the rest of us have to make our own luck and feel blessed when something like this just falls in our laps.
Hey Richmond, I feel your pain. I too have typed the mega-post only to click a smilie and for some reason lose the lot. Or bump the old escape key and lose it all. Smarts don’t it… [biggrin]
Merry Christmas all,
Michael.[santa][santa2][santa3][xmas]
Guys,
Seems we’re now off into the “can everyone be rich” discussion, or the relative merits of economic constructs.
I posted a response to the thread by that name, here’s the link:
https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forum/topic/14308.html
Aussierogue, you’re on the money when you mention market imperfections and the need for intervention that this creates. I don’t think it fundamentally undermines the merit in capitalism. But I do think it makes a case for Fair trading over Free trading. Free market capitalism is the domain of the far right, and this is typically at the expense of developing nations. This is because the comparative advantage of those nations is via their cheap labour force. So $$ for labour ends up in China and India and SEA. Industrialised countries sell their IP but go off shore for cheap production costs.
Marc’s argument seems to be that this is a good thing in that the flow of capital into these developing countries is a good thing. Unfortunately, there is also negative byproducts for these countries. When capital favours labour it can create an economy based on labour which is difficult to break out of to the more value add products. Also, free markets for labour can reduce the minimum wage costs that countries impose to maintain minimum living standards. This was evidenced even in the US after the FTA with Mexico. This dropped the minimum wage in the US so that these workers could compete with their southern cousins. In Leftist terms this is called the “race to the bottom”.
I’m more left than right, but I do support the concept of capitalism and global trade. But I maintain that it does require certain interventions for equity to be preserved. Rampant free market capitalism does increase global social surplus, but it also increases the gap between the haves and have nots by polarising the roles that certain countries play in the global economy.
Some smarter developing nations have identified this and are now being protectionist in their tarif systems to try and build internal competency and competitiveness with more value add activities. They don’t want to become yet another country of muscle for sale.
IMHO,
Michael.All,
Thought I should clarify that I have nothing at all against the BBs and that in fact a lot of my good friends are BBs. Just commenting on my perception of the collective mentality as I see it…
Also, don’t get how the GenXers are the lazy layabouts that expect handouts? Being a GenXer who’s now 3/4 through his Masters and works 8am-7pm most days in a pretty hard job, does this make me the exception to the rule. And as also posted earlier, I think good on em of the BBs. I don’t expect any handouts. I’ll just take the hand I’m dealt and turn it to my advantage. They got to where they are by their own hard work and I’ll do likewise.
Aussierogue, I’m also a bit of a confused hippy capitalist. I vote green every election and donate regularly to multiple charities. I just figure that I need to look after my own retirement and not rely on the government, so am into REI as my means to that end.
I’d be interested to hear what the GenYs out there think of the Xers and BBs. I hope my posts don’t come across as negative of BBs, just trying to express a “perception” as I see it.
Cheers,
Michael.Phil,
I think you can guess my take on this by my posts already but I’ll answer more precisely anyway.
I’m a GenX (born 1970) and don’t really have an opinion of the GenYs yet. But of the Baby Boomers (BBs) I think:
1. They’ve done exceptionally well for themselves due mainly to macro economic factors arising from the end of WWII.
2. They seem to see this as a right that they have earned and that they owe nothing to anybody.
3. Whats more, since they paid their taxes all their life they expect the next generation to also do so. This is something they’re entitled to and why should they fund their own retirement?
4. They love their assets and goodies and want to milk them for everything they’re worth to fund a “huge” lifestyle right to the end and who cares what happens after that as its all over eh?
As George W said “Who cares how history judges me as I’ll be dead by then”. If that ain’t the perfect snapshot of the BB mentality what is?
But hey, I don’t hold it against them. I just need to factor them in to my equation to maximise my opportunities. Life just deals you your cards and you gotta make the most of the hand your dealt.
Good luck to em,
Michael.Greg F,
Merry Christmas! Nice pressie!!
I often wonder how these figures are arrived at though. “Retail Spending” I take it means spending in retail outlets and excludes such things as holidays etc. My wife and I are flying up to Hamilton Island on Saturday (don’t mean to gloat [cap]) for a week sailing around the Whitsundays. Does this count towards our $3300 or not? [biggrin]
Anyway, a lot of money tends to flow this time of year, and most of it not directed towards investments.
Greg, you’re an exception to the rule. Well done!
Merry Christmas all,
Michael. [xmas]PS. Even though our sailing trip is pure consumption plain and simple, we are still going to investigate the option of buying a yacht through the lease company as a business venture. What’s the yield, what’s the deductibles, what’s the payback etc. Always thinking investment, even when on holiday. [biggrin] Cheers, MW
Lukis P,
Check out this link. There’s a lot of different manufacturers represented here and most export to NZ.
http://www.realtyguide.com.au/kithomes.htm
Cheers,
Michael.PS Post us when you figure out which approach you’re going to take. I’m looking for a cheap house approach for my acreage at bundaberg. Would like a nice 3 bedder for under AUD$100K.
Originally posted by marsden:Every investor has to do their own research and make their own decisions. My conclusion is that the retirement of the BBs is going to seriously discourage an increase in the value of urban property in favour of life style property. An oversupply of urban property will keep yield on urban property low because of low demand.
Marsden,
Not a bad theory, but my personal conclusions are different. I tend to think that the Baby Boomer effect will not result in diminished demand for urban property. I agree that lifestyle property demand might increase, but this is probably for a small percentage of the Baby Boomers (BBs). I also think that population growth is an absolute requirement to fund the BB phenomenon.
As such, the government is already advocating the GenXs “breed” us out of this problem. If this doesn’t work then they’ll be looking off shore to find skilled imigrants to fill the gap. The government can’t afford to pay the BB bills so need the PAYG tax from the workforce to do so.
My conclusion is then, that population rates in Australia can only go up and are likely to grow steeply. This will only increase demand for property in the key city markets where new imigrants normally look. Most imigrants settle in Sydney, despite government attempts to disuade this.
I feel IMHO that any residential urban properties that adhere to the fundamental rules of “quality” property as defined by Spann and others, will definately remain a solid investment. I’m not going to try and place any bets on the lifestyle change of the BBs. I’m more interested in the population growth that their retirement will demand.
Everybody needs somewhere to sleep at night, and a lot more tax payers means a lot more residences required to house them.
Of course, this is just my humble crystal ball projecttions on the situation. Everyone has their own take on where we’re headed for now…
Cheers,
Michael.gmh454,
I can’t help but sense interesting times ahead. There are a lot of contributing factors including the Baby Boomer phenomenon, which I consider to be a significant event, the likes of which we haven’t witnessed before.
I can but hope my intuition is born out as I’m cashed up and awaiting my opportunity. If something “significant” happens in the next 2-3 years I’ll be looking to capitalise on it. But I’ll be buying on the turn and not on the slide. I’m not clever enough to try and pick the bottom. I’ll wait for it to arrive and then wait for it to turn before I start parting with voluminous amounts of cash deposits for multiple IPs.
I don’t plan on being one of the poor mug GenXs who’s PAYG tax is subsidising the consumer culture of the Baby Boomers even into their retirement. I’m executing an exit strategy based on REI. Let the BBs pay for their own medical bills and wanton consumption I say by selling down their assets to fund their retirement. I’ll pick em up on the cheap and rent them back to them, or their kids, if I can. Lets face it, they won’t need those assets forever will they, so IMO they’ll want to turn equity into cashflow by selling the spare ones off…
Cheers,
Michael.Agreed,
I asked my parents (60-ish and well off) whether they were going to do the sea change and they both voted a strong NO. Them and all their friends in the same boat. They want to stay close to family in the Hills District.
My wife and I though, bought our first home at Narrabeen. We’ve always loved the beach and our primary criteria for the new place was walking distance to the beach.
There will always be demand for coastal property but it may not be the baby boomers.
Cheers,
Michael.Funny, I don’t see the time as a sacrifice. I’m learning while I’m at work by reading the forums and books whilst at lunch. In fact it gets me away from my desk for longer at lunch which is good for my sanity.
For me its all upside. Sure, I haven’t started losing my weekends to auctions and open houses. But when I do that my wife will come along as well so I won’t really be missing anything there either.
Make a hobby out of it and its no sacrifice. [biggrin]
Maybe I have sacrificed the odd shiny new consumer appliance or something. But I can happily live without them anyway. As I’ve said earlier, I’m living a fantastic lifestyle by my standards and managing to put a lot of money aside for investments at the same time.
Cheers,
Michael.About all I’m left with then is buy low, revalue, refinance, pay off the car… But its a risk as the valuation has to come in stronger than your buy price.
Sounds like you’ve got to get that car paid off…
Michael.
Qwerty,
Thanks for the info. Its the fibro shacks that I’m looking at too. There’s a heap of them on level ground in the area I’m looking which is just a block back from the main Road. I figure if I buy a few, tart them up and rent them, then I’m sitting on long term CG possibilities as urban infill catches up. I’m a long term player and am just watching the medians in this area so I can grab a few when they come right off the boil.
Cheers,
Michael.
