I read that list from last month also Crusty.
 
Valid point, considering he espouses nearly half a billion dollars of works under management……one would have thought that 60 mill net would have got him a ticket.

You must however appreciate that running a Porsche Racing Team con$ume$ considerable fund$  

No boom at all from where I sit.

Devo, agree. I've been posting elsewhere for quite some time, that I smell 1991 in the air. We will have a long flattish
sideways trend for several years. We may track inflation so assume 3 % for the sweet spot there.

Some markets have softened and will continue to do so. SEQ is over-supplied and clearance rates are low and time on market high. The Gold Coast where I was holidaying recently is "on special." ………..with very few buyers. Some vendors still very unrealistic.

 
Each market is different and the usual makets within markets caveat applies. Money supply (and hence cost) will tighten further.
The undersupply myth has been busted by Michael Matusik last month. I guess he won't be asked to be a guest speaker at any investor (sales) clubs/organisations for a while yet.

Market has to find equilibrium and homestatsis further supporting an ostensibly sideways trend.

I did watch 4 Corners last night and yes the US is in strife with more to come. That's what happens when the lending (stimulus) is controlled by the govt. We have somewhat more responsible lending here.

Equiteeee Maaaate was the catchcry from Which Bank some years ago on their ads. Those days have been subdued somewhat here. In the US equity was used (encouraged by GWB mark 2 and now Obamarama) to fund all manner of value losing and depreciating purchases. All one needed to get a NINJA loan was a pulse and ability to sign their name. Then they also have that cutsie exit clause called jingle mail………….the sound one hears when they post back their keys to the banks and walk away from their non-recourse loans.

Now the recent sugar rush fueled by the $timulu$ will leave the diabetic patient wallowing as the US becomes more and more insulin dependant.

Serves them right………….sure; however the wash up is it will affect the supply of credit here. I dont  subscribe to the 40 % bubble popping theory however neither is it gonna be a bed of roses here.

For those new to this gaame, keep your LVR's conservative and manage your ca$h flow are my words of (some) experience. If you can (and you must have the financial discipline to not spend on trinkets and high staus artefacts) get your revals done now and suck out as much as you can into offsets. Don't touch until the bargains appear and the yields become more investor friendly. Yields on current purchase prices in metro cities are rubbish.

Good luck all

Read in the order presented.

Make yourself a cuppa………………actually make that a pot of tea:

https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/property-investing/creative-investing/4324169

https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/property-investing/creative-investing/4331940

There are other shorter threads if you search under the Creative Investing Sub-Forum, however the first link above should give you a taste of how involved this process is regardless of what the vendors of multi-thousand dollar homestudies will tell you.

Like most things that involve value adding, there is a process…………..Is it simple? YES. Follow the process. Is it easy? NO!!!! Be prepared for some hard work, knockbacks and plenty of No' s!………easy implies lazy and despite what the purveyors of the homestudies will tell you, this stuff ain't easy.

Enjoy the reading Sasha 

Thanks for sharing that D, and for the contents of your opening post.

I don't subscribe, however did  view some video footage of his (March/April2010)  take on the Dow and as you mention he is looking at another leg up and if I remember correctly, an approximate halving of the index from there toward the end of the year and into 2011.

I have also read the Great Depression Ahead and the contents IMO are not as bearish as the title (for Aussies). He is an interesting fellow. He is a demographer and combines this with economic/fiscal notions and historical cylical data. Some interesting interpretations for sure.

We will be affected by the whitewash of the US markets (housing and business and Wall Street)  however unlikely to the degree he is prognosticating for the US. Watch out also for more drama from the five little PIIGS…………credit will be tight.

I am smelling in the air a period reminiscant of early 90's. We will track inflation for a while and basically go sideways for a five (or so) year period. There will be markets within markets, however things will be flat I reckon till 2015 or thereabouts.

Sage words Matt.

Here's a link to his website:

http://gordonku.com/

He's an ex orthopaedic surgeon. Seems like he's  fin free thru property according to the stuff on his site.

I wonder if he still dons the knife out of choice/passion or whether he deals only in property now.

Not sure where you are located and where you are buying Emmy, so the following relates to Vic contracts as I am most familiar with those. Cooling off is different in NSW and Qld where one forfeits a small (0.25 % deposit) for the leisure of 5 days cooling. Unsure of other states and territories.

The following is not advice, however merely my opinion. I haven't had cause to provide three alternatives, however have read about giving two options to vendors before in theory (books) however never applied it myself.

Your strategy is not without merit as it shows you are serious and are catering to possibly cover their needs. In so doing however you may be exposing more of yourself to them. The property is obviously overpriced and going to get stale if it hasn't already, so if their prime need is funds to commit elsewhere, I would start with a short settlement (however caveat this with ensuring you are market ready with finance) and for the price of a short settlement, you would expect a deep discount.

You can then offer slightly more for a longer settlement if they refuse your first offer. When trading terms or price, make sure they offer a consession, or the rea will grind you into a corner. If they are desparate, they should play the game.

If you are buying nearby to where you live, then I would sign a contract and attach a small token deposit of say 1,000 dollars to show you're serious. You can then also play clause amendment ping pong by altering price, terms and initialing. If from a distance and fax clause is stated in the contract then a similar scenario would be played.

Again I would seek legal counsel over releasing any deposit funds. If you're keeping to 60 days and under, personally I don't release anything until settlement. Lengthy settlements are different and your offer may be made more attractive by releasing (PART) deposit…..after checking with your lawyer.

Personally I wouldn't play all three options at the same time. Uness this is for a PPOR and there is some emotion attached to your decision, keep it cool. Make sure the numbers stack up.  If it goes to someone else who can offer sweeter terms………next.

Good luck

I saw that also…..forecasting 5 Mill median by 2020.

I can only presume that they are including multi-acre properties that may be upzoned and carved up into smalller lots for new house and land in the next 5-10 years.

They wouldn't be envisaging such a median price for your standard 3 BR brick veneer on a quarter of an acre or even less. Mickelham is still reasonably located to the amenity of Melbourne and surrounding nearby infrastructure is good.

Maybe a land bank opportunity there.

Are the comm properties, retail and subject to retail tenancy laws? If they are office/professional or sheds/industrial, ideally your tennants should be paying…..at least on a single holdings basis….check your leases if htis is the asset class you are in.

Obviously will depend upon what structure the lease wording  is at present, however maybe an idea for future negotiations on subsequent letting(s).

For now, I guess it is a matter of the cost of our business to pay this impost that benefits no one except the state revenue offices. It was, in days gone by, a wealth tax levied upon hoarders of subdividable city land to allow metropolitan (or regional) land releases to benefit the growing population base.

Now it fills the state coffers. Wouldn't be so bad if it were not a cumulative punishment. On a single holdings basis it is far more acceptable. It has made me look beyond Vic and have holdings in Qld and Sydney.

Good luck….my rant is over.

Hi ya Devo

They will go well above 7 %. Westpac and its Dragon offspring are giving 6.8 % term deposits for 12 months…….a clue me thinks. I'll guess circa 8 % and maybe slightly higher within the next 18 months or so.

Having said that, I don't think it will be the end of the world. I believe opportunity will be in the more leisurely pickings this coming year and maybe 2011. The frenzy of a very low interest rate environment and the FHO boosts and the "don't want to miss out" mentality will settle down.

I have posted a more balanced piece on my thoughts, however can't find the link now.

Found it…..here's the text:

There are markets within markets and sub-markets within them.

I don't see any further correction. Lower end with FHOG scaling back might soften or track sideways and then there is a case to be put forward that investors may pick up the slack.

The higher end took a hammering with the stock market bear market and has since bounced back…….at least it has around bayside Melbourne where I live.

As for the future, property has never ben afforable, particularly  if the prosepctive buyers have over-inflated expectations and must have it all now in exactly the location they wish to be, or they must have brand new McMansion with theatres and outdoor rooms lager than life. Many generations prior, people started out where they could and upgraded. So the instant gratifiers can either keep renting where they would like to live or buy somewhre else to get their foot in the door.

Westill have a 70 % owner occupier rate here in a generic sense. In the UK and other parts of Euope, it is as low as 40-50%…..hence many more tenants. This may occur here also.

Property is not only driven by investors, owner occupiers predominate and as it is a basic human need (and we are told that there is an under supply), I don't see the sky falling in.

I am not suggesting it's blue sky and everything is roses, however fundmentally, we are chugging along fine. If interest rates rise and some over-etended FHO struggle, then there will be some nice IP's to pick up.

I have read the book duckster refers to and the book title (The Great Depression Ahead) is far more bearish than its contents. Harry Dent does clarify that Austrlia is far better poised to emerge relatively scar free from the smoke and mirrors of the sub-pime mess and financial derivative products that were more akin to Ponzi. It is credit here (from that fallout) and ultimate development funds that are harder to source and yet we have a shortage of stock…………augurs well for upside to the suply and demand scenario me thinks

His book is however interesting as far as demographics and cycles specially for share markets (sectors) and also job cycles.

WJH, personally I cannot see a crash here in Australia………..perhaps softening in FHOG driven outer suburb fringes with little or no amenity that might see its purchasers struggle with rate rises whilst settling for a brand new (shiney) box and the obligatory high end Falcodores, and theatre systems whilst notching up plenty of credit card use. 

Not posting here as much these days, however I have been sounding like a broken record when I caveat that one needs to keep portfolio LVR's conservative moving forward. Now is not the time te be an uber-bull and max out LVR's and servicibility…….those days will come however not right now.

And here's the link to the thread it pertained to:

https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/property-investing/general-property/4329339