Forum Replies Created
VENTURENT,
Welcome and thank you for explaining in excellent detail your experiences. The position of property marketing companies in the investment marketplace is misunderstood by investors. We talk to clients everyday who are shocked at what goes on within the marketing industry, and even more shocked at how little they actually knew. This is after they have spent years researching the purchase of a property, which is why there needs to be a change in the way they are allowed to present what they do.
ASIC could start with requiring "WE DON'T WORK FOR YOU, WE ONLY CARE ABOUT OURSELVES" being written across the front of all marketing company communications.
Modernity Investing
Email Me+1
Modernity Investing
Email MeDave Ward wrote:Hi Juichi,Its a pretty big topic the topic of property investment area research and one where you will have many people tell you their method/data is superior to someone else's. Basically I have done a thesis on property research at Uni, invested in many properties of my own, built and developed around $50 million worth or high rise unit apartments and renovated units too. It wasn't until I started to do the developments that I realized how important focused research of an area actually was. Basically in easy to understand terms, you need a demand/supply imbalance in the market in order for the area to grow in value.
Property research is therefore broken up into 2 categories being statistical and fundamental. Because there are 15,000 suburbs around Australia, I needed to come up with a rating system to pinpoint the suburbs that have a demand/supply imbalance in them now and as such have the best chance of increasing in value well over the state average and in turn give you the ability to purchase more property and increase your wealth at a much quicker rate than most investors in the market. Obviously property investment is much better if you can time the market more efficiently rather than sit and wait for 5 years for any growth to occur, so this helps do that for us and our clients.
Our rating system rates each suburb out of 500 and each category is weighted according to the importance it has in the demand/supply balance. A brief outline of what they are is as follows:
1. Number of Days a house unit in the suburb is on the market – The lower the better, this shows a higher demand for that type of dwelling in the area. If the number of days have been decreasing over the past 6 months this is even better
2. % of vendor discounting – The lower this number the better as it shows that buyers have less choice and less ability to negotiate. It also indicates a suburb could be in high demand
3. Auction Clearance Rate – The higher the better. Higher numbers indicate a higher demand
4. Rental Yield – The higher the better as it indicates a higher demand in the area from renters who are prepared to pay more to live there.
5. % of Stock on Market – The lower this number is the more demand a suburb has and the higher the chance of getting a premium for the property is
6. Online Search Interest – Takes the total number of online searches in an area and divide this by the number of properties available for sale in an area. The higher this number is, the more potential demand the suburb has and the lower the supply in the market is to fulfil the demand
7. Rental Vacancy Rate – The lower this % the better it is for investors and the more demand a suburb has
8. Proportion of Renters to Owners – The lower this number the better a suburbs perception is. Owners have a tendency to look after their properties a little better than renters and therefore lift the perception of an area’s quality
If these metrics combined give us a rating that indicates the demand is exceeding supply (market is imbalanced), then we move onto the fundamental searches to validate the statistical data.
Fundamental Indicators
1. Proximity to Water/Ocean
2. Views of Hills/Mountains
3. Transport Infrastructure – Recently announced, in progress or to be shortly started that will reduce commute times to the CBD and increase demand for a suburb
4. The ripple effect of close suburb neighbours. If suburbs within close proximity have grown substantially recently, the chances are that the subject suburb will grow quickly in order to maintain a pricing balance between the growth suburb and the subject suburb
5. Project Booms – Are there any large projects nearby that will create a spike in demand (Mines, desalinisation plants, shipping ports, pipelines)
6. Ugly Ducklings – Has the suburb been branded rough or ugly in the past and the only problem with the suburb is its reputation? Are private buyers updating their properties in the area? Are developers buying up new land and building new apartments? Are businesses and trendy cafes entering the area now?
7. Urban Renewal / Government Works – Has the government put forward a proposal to improve the appeal of an area (Parks, malls, entertainment, shopping precincts)
8. Lifestyle Features – Are there any lifestyle amenities nearby like golf courses, large entertainment precincts, tourist attractions
If those 2 searches reveal that the suburb is a potential hotspot, then we drill down to find the best streets within the suburb and then find developments within close proximity to those to give the best chance of fast capital gains.
The data houses like Residex, RP Data and SQM Research provide data that fluctuates greatly, but is best used as a potential source to gather suburb shortlists for investigation from. The issue with these data providers is that they don't provide past issues of recommendations to gauge performance by. The trend of a suburb of interest is of particular value when deciding whether a suburb is worth fundamentally investigating. For example, it is no good going off to investigate a suburb that has been growing at 15%p.a. for the past 5 years. Like everything in life, when one area gets too expensive, people will compromise on the next best cheaper alternative until the prices of surrounding less desirable suburbs catch up.
There is so much more that could be written on the topic, but those items will give you a basic template of what you can use to instigate your research model for superior returns of investment properties.
WAG, here is an answer on another thread, posted by my partner Dave Ward, this covers why property research is not as easy as it seems.
Modernity Investing
Email Megoneos wrote:I really like this list. Nice to have it all written out.+1
Week One
Strip wallpaper
Strip skirting
Strip architraves
Strip old doors
Strip kitchen
Strip bathroom
Strip carpets
Clear gardens and site rubbish
Rough-in new plumbing
Rough-in new electrical
Week Two
Patch walls
Patch ceilings
Prime patching
Undercoat ceilings
Undercoat walls
Start painting inside and out
First coarse sand of floors (Some floor sanders wont want to do this, find one that will)
Start bathroom plumbing and tile prep
Start kitchen plumbing and electrical (depending on how much you move things around)
Kitchen cupboards (measure & order)
Kitchen bench tops (measure & order)
Kitchen splash backs (measure & order)
Week Three
Replacing skirting boards
Replace architraves
Hang doors
Second coat walls
Finish coat ceilings
Week four
Prime new woodwork
Undercoat woodwork
Top coat walls
Tile bathroom
Install kitchen cupboards
Install bench tops
Fitted wardrobes
Week five
Finish plumb bathrooms
Finish kitchen splash backs or tile
Finish plumb kitchen
Finish electrical kitchen
Finish top coating woodwork (second to last trade)
Site Clean (so there is less dust & grit to mess up your newly polished floors)
LAST
Finish floor sand and polish (last trade)
Touch up paint work after floor sanders (marks on skirting etc)
Clean (dust only this time)
I would start on the gardening and the driveway at the start, wait until the painters have finished and then plant up the gardens. That way there is someone on site every day to water your new planting.
Modernity Investing
Email MeArnoldus wrote:I'm a bit bearish on Rocky at the moment, there's lots of supply coming online and heaps more in the pipeline, and the council de-amalgamation and ridiculous rates rises for IP holders on top of the mining downturn in CQ, it's hard to see much growth in rents or prices unless there's a big change in fundamentals.Regardless of the number of mines or other commercial drivers, mining adds way too much to a city's economic future for a down turn not to have a major effect. If you take your eyes of the market in question and miss the "STOP" sign, it may take 20 years to regain the lost equity. In my opinion, it's not worth the risk.
Mosqui wrote:I wouldn't exclude mining towns. What you have to avoid is towns with only one mine or one industry. BHP and Hopetoun is something you want to avoid.Take Mudgee in NSW, as an example. I have an interest in 11 rentals there, bought 9 years ago, They have done well, but this year the vacancy rate started to soar, and with it, the days on market will follow as investors pile out. What happened? one of the mines started to let some staff go. Not a lot, but enough to upset the balance. There is no way you could say Mudgee was a mining town when we bought, now things are different.
Modernity Investing
Email MeFitted wardrobes in week four, at the same time as the kitchen cupboards and before the final paint.
Modernity Investing
Email MeI have watched this done over and over again, it nearly always ends in tears. If marriages don't/won't work over distances, I can assure you, renovations don't/won't ether. I love my tradesmen, but I have only ever met two or three that can get the whole job done without something going wrong, somewhere. That always means it will cost (me) more money and more time (increased risk).
The old saying "the squeaky wheel gets the oil" is so true with tradesmen. When you are not there, the other client who is busting them to get back to finish a job, wins. When I project manage, my policy is to be at the site no less then 3 days a week, minimum.
I can show you some great new deals over here in the east, they will give you less stress, with a lot less risk.
Modernity Investing
Email MeTheFinanceShop wrote:Your first purchase is oh so important because it will either anchor you or set up very well for subsequeShahin is right. The first purchase is a portfolio maker or a portfolio breaker. Most investors don't get past their Home + 1 investment property, and 90% don't get past Home + 2 investment properties for that reason. We see stalled investors, up to their necks in strife, investments that need to be untangled, refinanced and tidied up.
As a Property Investment Advisors and Buyer's Agents we see this all the time, and we start out with each client, by getting them onto our "on-boarding" process, the first part of this lets us see how the existing assets are setup, so we don't make things worst. We don't charge to give you our opinion, or to point you to some good professional advice.
Some here will say teach yourself and do you own research, I just don't agree.
It's a bit like saying: teach yourself and set up your own finance, teach yourself and set up your own trust structure. You don't know what you don't know. When you started your career, your employer didn't say "sit down there and teach yourself, then go out and borrow 1/2 a million dollars over 30 years, and then we will see how good you are". No they (or someone else) trained you, apprenticed you, or you started in the mailroom. The mailroom is how you learn on the job, where the worst you can do wrong is put the stamps on upside down. Some people don't ever leave the mailroom, while others go on to run the company.
In my opinion; Property investment is at it's most risky when you only have 1-2 properties. Once you have 3 or more, your income (rents) is coming off a broader base, your capital growth is coming of a wider geographical area, and with a bit of good planning you will have a few months mortgage payments sitting in your off set account, waiting for a rainy day.
A buyer's agent will sit down with you, create an investment plan that is tailored to you, then work with you as your advocate all the way through.
Let me know if I can help.
Modernity Investing
Email Metommytucker wrote:Cheers, that's the aim.I spoke to a guy out of Queensland once, a salesman no less, however what he said rings true – the deal of a lifetime comes along every week.
I kind of agree,
Great deals come along every week, deals of a lifetime come around about as often as: Once in a Lifetime, as the late great Kerry Packer said "You only get one Alan Bond deal in your life, and I've had mine". That was when Kerry sold Chanel Nine to Alan Bond for $1b and bought it back for $250m when it was worth $500m.
Modernity Investing
Email Metommytucker wrote:I'd like to know a) if it is reasonable to expect to find a place selling at a 10-20% market discount in such conditions. Conservatively I'd prefer 20% discount to the 12 month average, however I'm not sure if this is realistic. I'm dead set against overpaying though just to get into the market at present, and b) if it is reasonable then what are the techniques used to find these discounted houses?
Tom.
I am not sure what you mean by 10-20% market discount?
Do you mean you want to buy the property for 10-20% less than the asking price or you want to find a property in poor condition where the asking price is 10-20 less than the market price for same property in good condition?
Modernity Investing
Email Mesanth wrote:In addition, I would like to put together a number of associated risks with survey strata developments of this size. Risks such as:
• Not being able to get bank finance due to nature of development. (Too risky) hard to value?
• The ability to bond the common property?
• Timing of settlement upon completion of each individual house or the entire development?
• Restricting purchasers to utilise one builder only.
• Contracts falling over and leaving the builder out of pocket?
Are there others who have done this before and have a list of risks they could rattle off?
Santh,
Have a look at Dave Ward's post: https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/adding/4348852#comment-292532
He is all over this subject, his last project was 75 unit, residential/commercial development, so you will get the insider's view on what you are planning to do. He said he is happy to talk to you about your questions.
Dave Ward
m: 0425 559 648
Modernity Investing
Email MeThere is a saying my mother used to use about wanting too much, too soon in real estate:
"Chickens lay eggs, Pigs get slaughtered for bacon" and she would know, she had a habit of getting caught, being both a pig as well as a chicken!
That said I would not recommend this strategy to my clients and would not do this myself unless I was a cash buyer.
Here goes; in a rising market you can buy 10 properties in 12 months if you are careful with the method and manage your risks. The method I would suggest would be to buy a number of off-the-plan apartments in high growth areas using 10% cash deposits. Spreading the purchases between a few locations (5)and spreading the expected completion dates between 6-18 months.
Risks being your ability to on-sell the required number (5), settle on the contracts you need to(5), the market heading south, your ability to borrow being reduced because of internal or external factors.
To make is easier you would need to start with at least 25% of the total contract values as cash in the bank that you plan to use to fund this exercise. Add to that maintain excellent serviceability.
I have used a very flexible definition of "Buy" and "12 Months"
Modernity Investing
Email MeHarryPotter wrote:I would prefer to move my money through a number of places, buying, then adding value then selling for a profit, I will leave the risk of buy and holding (or folding) to someone else, who usually doesnt have a plan to exit. If this means that leaving a small amount of money in it for the next person, thats great as long I am making a profit along the way.It sounds like "day trading" in property to me, which I think has the highest risks of all property strategies. With property trading you ether have to do a tremendous amount of quality research on each site or you do none and just trade on a hunch.
This strategy requires you to double guess world commodity prices, multi national mining company management, state & federal government policy and potential policy changes, WOW.
How long have you worked with this strategy? 5, 10, 20 transactions? If you want an investor/partner to come onboard there needs to be a strong history of this type of trading, with well documented research and market analysis to offset future property trading risk, if you know what I mean?
Wealth in property is created and maintained by a very simple process:
- Spend less then you earn (profitability)
- Make a margin on your gearing (interest spread & capital growth)
- Balance your risk and your returns between:
- Capital growth
- Rental demand/growth
- Tax credits
So when one of the above three goes soft for a period, the other two offset the risk.
HarryPotter wrote:If this means that leaving a small amount of money in it for the next person, thats great as long I am making a profit along the way.No investor leaves money on the table for the next person, show me an invest that says to a purchaser: "Thank for your offer of $250,000, just give me $240,000 and I will be happy. As the buyer, you need the $10,000 more than I do".
What is actually meant by that saying or concept: By selling now I reduce my risk by getting out now, even though the market has some way to run. Thereby leaving some money on the table for the next guy. Where as you are saying here, you could see a major correction coming and you exited as quickly as practical?
Modernity Investing
Email Mejmsrachel wrote:You would be better off roughing in plumbing and electrical in week 2 well before painting and patching.You are right! (Edited accordingly)
Modernity Investing
Email MeWeek One
Strip wallpaper
Strip skirting
Strip architraves
Strip old doors
Strip kitchen
Strip bathroom
Strip carpets
Clear gardens and site rubbish
Rough-in new plumbing
Rough-in new electrical
Week Two
Patch walls
Patch ceilings
Prime patching
Undercoat ceilings
Undercoat walls
Start painting inside and out
First coarse sand of floors (Some floor sanders wont want to do this, find one that will)
Start bathroom plumbing and tile prep
Start kitchen plumbing and electrical (depending on how much you move things around)
Kitchen cupboards (measure & order)
Kitchen bench tops (measure & order)
Kitchen splash backs (measure & order)
Week Three
Replacing skirting boards
Replace architraves
Hang doors
Second coat walls
Finish coat ceilings
Week four
Prime new woodwork
Undercoat woodwork
Top coat walls
Tile bathroom
Install kitchen cupboards
Install bench tops
Week five
Finish plumb bathrooms
Finish kitchen splash backs or tile
Finish plumb kitchen
Finish electrical kitchen
Finish top coating woodwork (second to last trade)
Site Clean (so there is less dust & grit to mess up your newly polished floors)
LAST
Finish floor sand and polish (last trade)
Touch up paint work after floor sanders (marks on skirting etc)
Clean (dust only this time)
I would start on the gardening and the driveway at the start, wait until the painters have finished and then plant up the gardens. That way there is someone on site every day to water your new planting.
Modernity Investing
Email MeHarryPotter wrote:is to have a plan to buy, but also to have a plan to exit and to ensure your reasons for exiting are valid. Most people can buy, but most dont do research but they go with the crowd, but most don't know when to get out and most of them get burnt in the process.cheers
HarryPotter
While I agree with your statement to a degree, I have to say; by buying in mining towns you have lost most of what little control a property investor has over the product he or she invests in; TIMING
Mining towns are one of those special places that live in a "virtual reality". By that I mean one company (or the person running it) or the government (or the person running it) can wipe the land values over night without warning.
Playing that game will work perfectly right up to the moment it doesn't and if you are like most investors, who like to play double up, you will get burnt. Getting burnt with $10,000 worth of apples and no one to buy them is one thing, but getting stuck with $???,000 capital loss and mortgage is deal breaker. Doing it once did take some nerve (+1), doing it twice would be somewhat unwise (-100).
Another thing: most people do do research. They just don't know how to do the right research.
The older I get, the more I know how much I don't know.
Modernity Investing
Email MeA woman walked up to me in a cafe, introduced herself (local Doctor's wife) and said that her friend (who she had been sitting with) had said that I was the person to talk to regarding an investment property transaction (don't laugh yet).
She said "I don't want anything for free and I'm happy to pay you for your time".
So I sat down with her and spent nearly an hour going over the issue she was having.
I ended by saying "I would need another hour to research the details and get back to her later that day", which I did.
Now for the rub.
I emailed her the details as I said I would and called her directly, which went to message bank.
I called her the next day, which went to message bank.
I called her the next and it went to message bank, so texted her.
Two hours later she returned my call. Said she was busy and she would drop a bottle of wine into my office as payment and hung up.
Gosh I thought, it had better be a bloody good wine.
But she never did. She saved $70,000 and I am owed a bottle of wine, go figure? (now start laughing)
Modernity Investing
Email MeMichael Bladen, Oxley Partners, Bong Bong Street, Bowral. 02 4861 6914.
We do a lot of work for Michael's clients and send our clients to Michael. The feedback we get is always good.
Here is a link to the Tax Checklist we give out to clients, just help them to double check they are not missing anything.
Modernity Investing
Email Me