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  • Profile photo of loan rangerloan ranger
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    That’s not a very fair comment …. I own 10 NRAS properties, have sold many many more and have just had a number of mine and other clients, re-valued.

    Some examples

    2 bed Townhouse in Gregory Hills, Sydney – purchased 8 months ago for $370K. Re-valued at 460K. 100% of the 6 townhouses are NRAS

    2 bed Unit in Elanora Heights, Sydney – purchased 12 months ago for 595K. Re-valued at 650K . 15 of the 22 Units are NRAS.

    2 bed Unit in Enfield , Sydney. – purchased 8 months ago for 535K. Re-valued at 610K . 10 of the 24 Units are NRAS.

    2 Bed Unit in Alderley, Brisbane – purchased 14 months ago for 350K. Re Valued at 390K 16 of the 30 Units are NRAS

    2 Bed Unit in Windsor, Brisbane – purchased 14 months ago for 345K. Re Valued at 390K 8 of the 14 Units are NRAS

    To be fair and balanced, there are others in SA for example that haven’t shown much appreciation over the past 12-18 months , but the clients are 7-9K CF+ on those, so they aren’t reliant on growth to keep their heads above water. Point being – if you choose well, a property with an NRAS credit can make you good growth as well as great cash flow. NRAS of itself does not equate to growth potential being handicapped.

    To the OP; I wouldnt be buying anything ( NRAS or non NRAS) in a project with 100 + Units though. Strata Costs can get atmospheric. Try to focus on low rise or boutique sized projects.

    • This reply was modified 10 years, 3 months ago by Profile photo of loan ranger loan ranger.
    Profile photo of loan rangerloan ranger
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    Same goes for Negative Gearing and CGT. If we defer investment decisions based on what a Government may or may not do to a particular piece of tax legislation ( which is what NRAS is- a tax credit) no one would ever invest in anything. I’d also add that whenever legislative tax changes occur, it is almost universally accepted that they are not applied retrospectively. So people who already enjoy a particular tax benefit get to continue to enjoy it.

    This Federal Government has made it clear in the June senate enquiry into Housing, that funding is in place in the forward estimates for NRAS until 2017 – which covers the entire 10 year period for all dwellings to be delivered and activated up to June 2016.

    Profile photo of loan rangerloan ranger
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    1. Is there anyway we could use property to reduce our CGT once we sell our shares? I suppose the only way to reduce the CGT is to drip feed them out slowly over a few FY’s?

    2. So lets assume I pay cash 100% for PPOR of say 1M. I sell half the shares and use that 500k for IP’s and keep the remaining 500k in the market to collect divs etc. Would that be a wise strategy?

    3. I had a little read up on NRAS (only 40,000 avail I believe) and TBH they seem like they may be difficult getting our hands on some. Forgetting NRAS – if we were to purchase standard rentals around the 400k mark as you suggest, what sort of figures would that present?

    4. With all of the tax deductions, how would this all work out should we be able to retire @ 45 and have no income to offset the tax against?

    1. You should seek an accountants advice on this. I can tell you all the ins and outs of NRAS, but I dont want to advise you on CGT :)

    2. No such thing as a right or wrong strategy. There is certainly merit in owning the PPOR outright, then using a Line Of Credit to draw out equity for INV purposes

    3. Plenty of good NRAS deals around with no valuation issues and strong yields – you just wont find many using Google. The online marketers flog anything and everything and dont give much thought to valuations. Im not allowed to advertise my services, but……

    4. One of the beauties of NRAS is that the tax credit is paid in 2 parts – 75% comes from the Federal Govt via a Refundable Tax offset, and 25% comes from the State via a Non Assessable, Non Exempt cash payment. Neither payment is linked to losses. Theyv are pure tax free refunds. In other words, you receive the money whether you are paying tax or not. “Losses” only affect the negative gearing side of the equation, and if are concerned about losses not being offset against income- bear this in mind. You are 30 now, and looking to retire at 45. That’s 15 years away, so the deductions associated with high levels of gearing will still be of value to you for 15 years. By the time you are 45, the properties wont be running losses anyway, so you need not be concerned about having no taxable income to offset losses against, as there wont be any losses.

    Let me give you an example. using a 350K property that currently gets 350 per week rent. The 20% discount under NRAS only stays in place for 10 years. After that, your property returns to normal market rent and you stop receiving the NRAS tax credit. So if the normal market rent for a 350K property is $350 today and increases by a very conservative 3% per annum, compounding… by year 15 ( when you turn 45) your property will be receiving @ 545per week , which is $28,355 , which equates to a yield of 8.1% PRE TAX If the same property achieved 4% compounding rental increases, by the age of 45 you’d be receiving $630 per week, or $32760 per annum, or 9.4% pre tax yield. 5% would yield 10.8% pre tax

    Based on your existing combined 160K income, I’d be taking a closer look at something along these lines;

    1. 6 NRAS properties. Broadly speaking, each will generate @ 20K of losses ( 1o K Cash loss, 10K depreciation) , and 7-8K CF+ after tax. So 6 of these would reduce your household income from 160K to 40K ( @ 20K each- so pretty close to tax free) And it would add @ 42-48K of additional Tax Free income. End Result… you’d go from 160K taxable household income to a combined tax free ( or very close to tax free) household income of @ 202-208K

    2. If you used 90% LVR finance, you’d only have used 6 x 60K to achieve this outcome. 360K of your equity would have been used.

    So if you do decide to pay $1Mil cash for a PPOR, you could draw out just 360K to get the 6 properties and effectively set yourself up with a 200K+ tax free income for your household for the next 10 years. that’s $2 Million in Tax free income in the next 10 years- more than enough to quickly pay off the 360K Line Of Credit on your PPOR and return it to debt free within 2 or 3 years. This would also leave you with an enormous amount of equity to invest elsewhere if you wanted diversification.

    The secret is to maximise your tax free cash flow so that you can then maximise your $1Mil equity. NRAS is simply the best tool for that job. End of story. It’s not the be all and end all and it’s not the only good investment available, and it’s certainly not where your investing journey needs to end, but it most definitely IS the most potent and powerful place to start, because of all the multiplier effects it creates for you while you are still working and can still avail yourself of the Australian tax system and it’s very investor friendly laws ;)

    Consider this; 360K of equity invested in 6 x NRAS properties basically makes you over $2 million tax free cash by the time you are 40 – before $1 of growth is accounted for. You’d have to work for @ 18 years to make $2 million after tax, based on your current taxable household income. And keep in mind, the $2 Million doesn’t account for all the incremental increases built in to NRAS. If I included those, the $2Million would be closer to $2.4 Million. You’d have to work for @21 years to achive that , based on your current taxable household income. However, I cant predict those Rental CPI increases so Ive used an assumption of zero increases to NRAS over the 10 years, to be ultra conservative.

    That sort of cash flow ( $200K pr annum tax free) would allow you to pay down the 360K LOC you used to fund the 6 x NRAS deposits, within 3 years easily. So your end result would effectively be – $1 Mil unencumbered PPOR within 3 years + $200K Tax Free income + 6 Investment properties costing you Nil, Nada, Zero, Zilch. Beyond that, with all of that equity and all of that cash flow at your disposal, you can venture off to buy multiple other INV properties (non NRAS , as they aren’t available after June 30,2016) , or commercial properties, shares, magic potions or anything else that tickles your fancy :) The point is, NRAS creates the multipleir effect that you wont get from anything else. It’s the First Stage. The Cash Cow.

    And don’t forget – you don’t have to be worried about “losses” holding no value or appeal for you beyond the age of 45, if you are fortunate enough to stop working then – because the 6 NRAS properties will well and truly be past their loss making days by then, as I demonstrated earlier.

    NRAS is like an accelerant. It takes equity, and using high LVR lending, low interest rates and the tax system, turns the equity into d supercharged tax free yields, which get reinvested, making everything happen far quicker, creating compounding multiplier effects. You literally get the best of both worlds – great tax losses (negative gearing) AND Tax Free Cash Flow Positive after tax (NRAS Tax Credit) in one asset – at the same time. You get to reduce your assessable income by 20K AND make 7-8K tax free. 60K in. 8K tax free out = 15% tax free. But when reinvested, you get a multiplier on that. There’s nothing like it, and I dont know of any other asset class where you can get a better return on 60K (or 6 x 60K) Where else can you reduce your tax bill to ZERO, increase your after tax income significantly, get a compounding return from reinvesting that yield and get capital growth, in one asset?

    Then you can go off an invest in all the other diversified opportunities and retire early on a passive income- whatever that may be . But to get there you have to put that equity to work. Squeeze all the juice out of the lemon while you have the opportunity and the taxable income and the NRAS at your disposal.

    • This reply was modified 10 years, 5 months ago by Profile photo of loan ranger loan ranger.
    • This reply was modified 10 years, 5 months ago by Profile photo of loan ranger loan ranger.
    Profile photo of loan rangerloan ranger
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    May I ask your combined household taxable income? Ballpark ?

    I ask because if you were to set aside 500K to put towards a principle home, and then 500K towards INV purchases, you could break it up into 5 x 100K “chunks”. Use 5 x 100K deposits to purchase 5 x NRAS properties at @ 350- 400K each. Each 100K deposit would cover 20% deposit (70-80K) + Stamp Duty (12-16K depending on which state you purchase in) + a 10K cash buffer ( to cover the first years pre tax cash flow loss. Typically, that should generate @ 100K in deductions ( based on approx 20K per property, which consists of @8-10K in pre tax cash flow loss and 10-12K in depreciation – per property)

    Typically, you’d also generate anywhere between 8-9K CF+ , because you’d receive an ATO refund on your per tax cash loss and depreciation , PLUS the NRAS tax free credit of $10,661.( and it goes up , indexed to rental CPI, annually )

    So you’re 500K could buy you @ 1.75-2 million of property, and earn you @ 40-45K tax free after ALL EXPENSES ARE ACCOUNTED FOR.

    Looked at another way, thats an 8% Tax Free Return.

    If you were to be a little more aggressive and gear to 90% LVR + LMI you could in theory, purchase 8 x NRAS with your 500K ( subject to borrowing capacity of course) Again, using a 350-400K price range for the purpose of this example, 10% deposit = 35-40K S/Duty 12-16K . Cash Buffer 10K . So approx 60-65K invested in each property. You’d generate 160K of deductions ( 8 x 20K) and depending on your assessable income and Marginal Tax Rate, you may also generate as much as 70-80K additional after tax from the NRAS Credit.

    So if your combined household income is 200K for example, 8 NRAS properties would typically allow your assessable taxable income to be reduced to @ 40K ( say 20K for you and 20K for your partner) which is effectively putting you both on an almost tax free income, as the tax free threshold is 18,200. You’d also be receiving @ 70-80K in additional refundable tax offsets – ie cash in your hand or bank account, from the NRAS credits.

    So in that situation, your 500K invested in 8 x NRAS would be effectively convert 200K of taxable income into 270K tax free income for the next 10 years, and you’d have a property portfolio of 3.5 – 4 Million. Even with conservatiove growth of 3% per annum, your portfolio would appreciate 1.5-2 Million over 10 years.

    Or looked at another way, without a dollar of capital growth (which I’m not , for a moment, suggesting will occur) your 500K has been turned into 2.7 Million tax free in 10 years.

    With growth of just 3% compounding , your 500K has been turned into 2.7 Million in tax free cash and 1.5-2 million in additional equity

    Or looked at another way , 60-65K of your cash invested using a 90% + LMI loan will generate 8-9K Tax Free, which is a 13-15% Tax Free Return.

    If you then take that 270K per annum and re-invest in other, non NRAS properties, or maximise your Superannuation contributions, or pay off other non deductible debt, the yield will ultimately be significantly higher than 13-15%, as it’s all about the compounding multiplier effect that all that tax free money can create for you.

    • This reply was modified 10 years, 5 months ago by Profile photo of loan ranger loan ranger.
    Profile photo of loan rangerloan ranger
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    NRAS Round 5 funding has been cancelled in the Federal Budget, but existing incentives from Round 4 remain fully funded…

    Round 5 would have provided funding for 10,000 NRAS incentives, but the incentives hadn’t been awarded yet so its not like anything has been clawed back or withdrawn. They just aren’t proceeding with the last tranche.

    Where does that leave NRAS? The bottom line is that instead of NRAS being a 50,000 dwelling initiative, it is now effectively a 40,000 dwelling initiative. The 10 years of funding for the existing 40,000 is locked into the forward estimates, and is not affected in any way by the budget decision not to proceed with Round 5. Of those 40,000, approximately 18,000 were yet to be “activated” at the time of the Budget. Keeping in mind that the majority of the remaining 18,000 do not require activation until as late as June 30,2016… this means that there is still almost 2 years to accumulate NRAS approved dwellings.

    You’re free to view it as a fad, and there’s no doubt that a segment within the NRAS market has sought to bastardise it and profiteer from it by using the incredible cash flow it generates to try and price gouge. So they certainly deserve to be criticised because they’ve taken what is a great investment and turned it ugly. But when you are able to purchase at fair market value rather than grossly inflated prices, it’s difficult not to concede that the numbers are impressive. 8-9K CF+ Tax Free isn’t to be sneezed at, especially when combined with good stock in sound locations.

    Let me use my own situation as an example; I have 10 NRAS properties now. With each property generating an average of 10 K pre – tax loss per annum and 10-12K depreciation per annum, they generate a combined 200-220K of deductions for me annually. Each property also produces 8-9K CF+ after tax, and that will increase annually because of the NRAS indexing. So with a salary of 250K, my assessable income will be reduced to @ 20 or 30K. With 18,200 being the tax free threshold , this means I’m going to pay little or no tax on my taxable income for the next 10 years. But I will also receive an additional 80-90K tax free from NRAS after tax cash flow ( 10 x 8-9K CF+)

    I’ve invested @ 50K of equity for each purchase ( 10% + stamp duty) plus a 10K equity buffer to cover the first years pre tax loss, which gets replenished by the combined ATO refund and NRAS tax credit, meaning I dont ever put a cent of my own cash in. So a total of @ 60K per property has been invested from equity, ( this includes the 10K buffer to cover me for Year 1) Across 10 properties, this equates to 600K of equity invested (which again, I dont contrbute ANYTHING to because of the CF+ nature of the investment) and conservatively speaking, it means I will pay little or no tax on 250K, PLUS receive 80-90K extra tax free dollars… so Im effectively going to earn 330-340K tax free for the next 10 years. In other words, 600K makes me 3.2-3.3 Million in Tax Free dollars over 10 years – and that’s before any growth is accounted for. How much growth do you otherwise need to make, after accounting for losses and CGT, to match 3.3 Million Tax Free?

    Whats my worst case scenario? If my 10 properties don’t increase $1 in value, I’ve made over $3 Million Tax Free anyway, just from cash flow. And I havent impacted my existing household budget one iota. If I suffer a reduction in income, the properties still make me a lot of tax free cash flow- it will just be less because I’ll lose some negative gearing as a result of having more losses than income. But I’ll still be earning the maximum amount of tax free income my situation allows for. The NRAS is a refundable tax offset, payable whether I have an assessable income or not, so I will still be CF+ on all 10 properties no matter what! And if the property market crashes, or rates increase, or we have a recession? The NRAS cash flow keeps me CF+ up to rates of 14-15%

    Investing doesn’t have to be exclusively about growth. The certainty of Cash Flow can be equally as appealing, and in any balanced portfolio, within any asset class – that is the investment norm. After all, you wouldn’t invest in loss making shares or term deposits or bank accounts, and hope for growth. Yet we seem happy to invest in loss making property with the exclusive goal of growth.

    I guess my argument is this…. if you could invest your money in any other asset and earn 14-15% Tax Free, would you? because 60K of your equity or cash invested into 1 x NRAS property that makes you 8-9K CF+, is precisely that… a 14-15% Tax Free Return. And that’s without any growth whatsoever.

    Profile photo of loan rangerloan ranger
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    NRAS is a tax incentive, not an investment property fad.  You are looking at it all wrong.  Where else can you get a 10% Tax Free Return on your investment?   I bet your negatively geared property doesn't do that for you….

    Anyway, I digress…. regarding the article you have submitted to defend your position; it is literally dripping with incorrect information. It continues to amaze me how ordinarily intelligent people just cant comprehend basic maths.

    So rather than debating emotionally, let's look at this using facts.  Not myths.  Not opinions.  Just facts… freely published on Govt and ATO websites for all to see.

    What Todd says-  rental increases are indexed to CPI ( 2.8%)  and are therefore too weak. I agree that 2.8% is weak, but NRAS rental increases are not linked to CPI.

    What is actually true –   NRAS incentives are increased annually in line with RENTAL CPI, which is a whole different kettle of fish to CPI.   How, you ask?

    Increase was 8.4% in 2009/10

    Increase was 5.4% 2010/11

    Increase was 4.2% 2011/12

    Increase was 4.8% 2012/13

    Increase is on target to be 5.4% 2013/14

    http://www.fahcsia.gov.au/our-responsibilities/housing-support/programs-services/national-rental-affordability-scheme/national-rental-affordability-scheme-nras-incentive-indexation

    What Todd says –  There is a 10 year lock in – Todd's got that wrong too.  It's true that the very first version of NRAS was a Head lease Agreement operated by Queensland Affordable Housing Consortium, and it was quite cumbersome and restrictive. But it's loooooong since disappeared.  All the NRAS consortiums operate a Non Entity Joint Venture now, and have since 2009/10.  I could publish links to all 138 NRAS consortiums agreements, but that seems a little silly.  If you really want to verify whether I actually know what I'm talking about, call Questus, Affordable Management Corporation, Aspire Housing, Ethan Affordable Housing, Providence Housing, Coast 2 Bay Housing or any of the other NRAS consortiums, ask for a copy of their NEJV, and see where you can find any restrictions that compel you to be locked in to any agreement for 10 years.

    What is actually true-  nowhere in the NRAS Scheme Act 2008 is there anywhere that gives anyone any form of authority to lock anyone in to the scheme for 10 years.   None of the consortium agreements lock you in for 10 years.

    http://www.comlaw.gov.au/Details/C2008A00121   If you enjoy dry reading- knock yourself out, but believe me, what Todd claims is simply not true

    What Todd says – There are restrictions on selling to an Owner Occupier or another investor – wrong again.  Try and find any mention of that on the FAHCSIA website or inside the legislation.

    What is actually true.  You can cease to participate your property in the NRAS at any time.  Or if you sell to another investor, they are allowed to take up the remaining term of the 10 year incentive, if they wish . However, they are not obliged to do so.

    I can go on and on and pick apart every one of his arguments, but the simple truth is that he ( like many other critics who THINK they know NRAS because they heard someone talk about it or read a few lines somewhere one time)  doesnt know what he's talking about on the subject of NRAS. 

    He is a smart guy, runs a great business and is honest. So I dont think he's trying to mislead anyone.  I just think he doesnt understand NRAS properly.

    His motivation?  Hard to say, but he runs a business where he charges you 10K or so to act as a buyers advocate , sourcing old 2nd hand stock, buying it "under value" and flipping the equity into more properties. It has its place in a portfolio, but NRAS represents competition.   So I guess he may feel like attacking the competition makes sense. What is not in dispute is his right to criticise if he feels compelled to do so.  That is is absolutely fine , but it's tough to take his arguments on this issue seriously when they are so factually incorrect on every single level.

    The one thing he does say where I agree, is price gouging.  But this isnt linked to NRAS- this is endemic amongst all the white shoe brigade marketers in the Sunshine state, where he directs most his attacks. That is to say,  whether the property is approved for NRAS or not, these "merchants" try and add 30-40K to every deal. So it's absolutely unfair of him to level the criticism for price gouging at the feet of NRAS.  It was going on long before NRAS, and will go on ling after NRAS.  

    Sorry folks-  there isnt a single argument on his blog that holds water .

    Profile photo of loan rangerloan ranger
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    Unfortunately that's not quite correct I'm afraid.

    The NRAS tax incentive does not have any connection to ordinary offsets that can be applied against your assessable taxable income. None whatsoever. . 

    It is paid via two components, called a Refundable Tax Offset ( not the same as a tax offset- see below) and a Non Assessable Non Exempt Cash Gift.  75% is paid via the RTO ( federal Govt pays this, and is ADDED to your tax return cheque/EFT from the ATO. Under ALL circumstances it is completely free of tax) , and 25% via the NANE ( state Govt pays this into your bank account and it is also completely tax free)   Both are paid in FULL, TAX FREE, whether you have an assessable taxable income or not.

    You may be confusing a Tax Offset with a Refundable Tax Offset.  It's a common mistake, and many people who have read the misconceptions and myths perpetuated by some ill informed commentators who like to publish erroneous information about NRAS have been taken by this falsehood, but rest assured- you ( and they) are wrong and they are in fact two very different things – more information available here. Google is your friend :) 3 seconds of “extreme due diligence” may have been time well spent prior to posting incorrect information.  

    http://www.ato.gov.au/nonprofit/content.aspx?doc=/content/00179876.htm&page=4&H4

    As you will see, the NRAS Tax Incentive is completely different to and independent of traditional Tax Offsets  you are referring to. The distinction is clear, as the ATO plainly states on this link. A Refundable Tax Offset is paid to you in full, tax free, whether you have an assessable taxable income or not. It is paid to you in full, tax free, whether you have excessive tax offsets or not.  This means it also works for non residents with no assessable income from employment in Australia ( just rental income for which they submit a tax return)  

    So NRAS cash flow never runs out of steam Dave .  The "steam" in fact  increases each and every year for 10 years, in line with Rental CPI.   FYI, Rental CPI has averaged 5.69% since 2008/9 when NRAS was introduced.   It started at $8000 is currently sitting at $9981. So an NRAS property will most definitely generate the NRAS tax incentive in full, tax free, every year and well beyond the 4-5 years you have indicated. Better still, with just 4% compounding rental growth for each of the 10 years , your property would roll out of NRAS after 10 years and be achieving over 8% yield ( before deductions, depreciation etc) after reverting to full market rental rates. In other workds, CF+ for life , unless interest rates hit double digits. Dont mean to be too mean, but too many people who know too little about NRAS continue to make thinly veiled criticisms of it without actually knowing what they are talking about. Building a portfolio using NRAS is much easier than building a portfolio with neg gearing. Superior deductions. Superior Cash flow. No out of pocket costs, meaning significantly higher borrowing capacity, and guaranteed equity from reducing debt on your PPOR and paying it off within 10-15 years using the ever increasing NRAS CF+ tax free surplus money generated every year for 10 years. Short of massive Capital Growth and massive pay increases, you will never get close to this with the old rusted on “buy and hold at a loss and hope for growth” that so many credit boom beneficiaries of the 90’s seem to be unable to let go of.

    Take 60K of equity- buy a 400K NRAS property. It will produce at least 6K CF+ tax free in year 1. Thats a 10% Tax Free ROI. Each year the figure will increase, so you’ll not only AVOID 2K of losses each year using the traditional neg gearing model, you’ll also ADD 6K tax free each year. That’s 8K of extra funds you can use to pay down non deductible debt . That will knock 10-15 years and 150K + interest off a 300-500K PPOR 30 year term. That’s a whole lotta accelerated equity, and it happens free of charge, without a single dollar being spent on losses/holding costs. It also means your non deductible debt is reducing fast, so your borrowing capacity continues to increase, rather than decrease, as you add a 2nd, 3trd or 4th NRAS property. Now you’re talking about paying down your PPOR in well under 10 years, meaning even more equity is available sooner, with less and less non deductible debt. Again, your borrowing capacity keeps growing this way. l

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    This is always a risk with properties purchased Off The Plan, whether they are NRAS or not.  The best advice I can offer is to have your broker order an upfront valuation on an "as if completed" basis, so that you can see how the valuer would value the property today if it were available to be settled immediately.  if the valuation is on the money or close to on the money, it is probably reasonable to proceed, as prices are unlikely to fall further in coming months.  i.e – I think all the falls , or softening of various markets, has probably run its course, and bottomed out.

    But it's always preferable to purchase something completed or near completed ( within 2-3 months) or under a construction arrangement, as you can secure a genuine valuation and unconditional loan approval now, that will hold water.

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    The NRAS dwelling ID is isued to the NRAS consortium within 6 weeks of the property settling and a tenant moving in. The certificate noting the NRAS Dwelling ID should then be made available to you immediately

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    well, looks like that's happening. Every existing GE deal I have under 80% will be getting refinanced to the new FirstMac 3.99% product. It's a no brainer.

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    god of money, why are you surprised FirstMac is still alive?  Im just surprised you would ask that, unless you don't know much about Kim Cannon!   From what I understand, he employed a pretty deliberate strategy to roll up into a little ball and ride out the crisis, but remained pretty profitable throughout. He bought the HSBC book before this crisis hit, so he must have a few bucks… and has been quietly purchasing a host or small mortgage managers books I hear. I just saw a new product FirstMac launched which unless Im mistaken , screams a pretty loud… I'm still very much alive. Havent checked it out yet but I think it's a 3.99 100% offset 1 year fixed rate. Anyone know much about it?

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    wont last long…  we all know that institutional  investors/ securitisation markets wont buy lo docs, so eventually every lender has to face the reality of pulling them. It will be a 60% lo doc market by  Xmas or early 2009. PMI and Genworth will see to that… unless the deal is impeccable. But if it was im peccable I guess it would be fulldoc!!! 

    Anyone still writing lo doc will have to insure internally, like Terry says, but St George and Westpac cant keep sticking it on balance sheet. In an environment where the banks are starting to set aside massive amounts for bad debts/provisioning, I dont see how they will make a business case for offering lo doc above 60 much longer. Wouldnt be surprised if they reduce Full Doc to 90 either, but thats a whole other thread. If by some miracle lo doc survives at 80%,  we can probably expect pricing to be at least 20-30 bpts above SVR.  Maybe more. It is the only way investors "may" consider them so lenders can sell them… of course in time all of this will pass…. but for now, lo doc is almost dead above 60%.

    I have to say this though,  a few BDM's from lenders like Fmac and other securitised lenders warned me to go to my lo doc customers and get em topped up, refi'd, whatever, months ago. They told me over and over to do it… gave me several months warning that lo doc was going to be pulled. Warned me that the insurers were going to make refi's almost impossible. They told me to get in, get what you can and park it in a LOC or Offset for a rainy day, etc… warned me over and over and over, but I didnt do a thing about it.  Once again I listened to the banks RM's/BDM's  telling me they werent changing any policies…instead of the non banks, who in my experience have been way ahead of the knowledge curve versus the bank BDM's during the credit crunch.  Anyway, wish I'd listened.  Cant help many of my lo doc book now, unless they go PAYG!

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    In an environment like this,  and with that equity at your disposal, it's pretty difficult to ignore the merits of investment property.  Consider these points;

    A- We have the lowest rental vacancies in just about forever… and it WILL stay this way for some time yet. (see point D below)
    B- This has lead to significant upward pressure on rentals already. It will continue to gain momentum ( again- see  point D)
    C- This is further compunded by the critical shortage of new stock in the pipeline, meaning even further upwards pressure on rentals for at least another two years. More likely the next 3 years.
    D- the Credit crisis has made, and will continue to make it almost impossible for developers to find funding to get new developments started…meaning an ever widening gap between available stock and demand for stock. Even when the crisis passes in 12-18 months, there are lead times involved in getting DA's, design, planning, finance, pre sales etc… so there will be a good 18-24 month lag AFTER the credit crunch, before any sort of significant new volume of stock becomes available,  and finally
    E- interest rates heading south, which does two things. Reduces mortgage stress and therefore mortgagee reposessions which have been driving valuations down, and it also boosts borrowing capacity as assessment rates reduce. In other words, there is a critical set of influences converging, which all scream  "investor opportunity" right now.

    Now, I acknowledge that conventional wealth creation wisdom/methodology preaches negative gearing and capital growth, but if you can own properties that are positively geared, you can pretty much own em for free!!! Smart investors realise the power of positive gearing always beats negative gearing.  In particular, its a real bonus in your circumstance, as you are 50 and dont have 20 years to see a strategy evolve. This is a really unique opportunity to look at the facts above rather than following conventional wisdom or current "doom and gloom" sentiment, because those factors outlined above will mean that when the credit crisis has passed and sentiment has started to return, there will be significant capital gain to be made. Worst case scenario is that you will make no capital gain in the next three years, but the properties will be positively geared, so you will have no holding costs and maybe a little tax to pay. No big deal, you will see capital gain compensate for that ten fold at some stage within a few years. Best case scenario is that you will see  some gain starting mid 2009 and by 2011 you will have made a nice little profit.  Cretianly if you wish to retire at 55, it's an amazing opportunity for you. My bet is that the capital gain  you eventually realise will far outweigh any short term tax you may need to pay on an investment property.

    Here's an example… lets say you buy  a 250K 2b/r unit and can rent it for $300 per week. I/O repayments on current fixed rates of 5.99 for example, or maybe on even less for variable rates by the New Year, would mean repayments of approximately 14,975 per annum. If rates get to 5.5%, it would mean $13750 per annum, etc etc.  Probability is rates will get to around 4.5-5%, so you may see repayments as low as $11250 annually. Your rental income will be $15600 , minus some management costs and strata fees etc…lets say 6% management fees and $400 p/quarter strata- a total of $2536. You will net $13065. Your holding costs at 6% are essentially $160 per month, and at 4.5% they are ZERO. Its highly likely thats where we are headed, so in reality you are looking at a situation where you can essentially have someone pay your investment property for you, free of charge.  I'd look to lock in a fixed rate when they hit the 5%ish range… rental yields already exceed 5%… so it becomes a no brainer then. Your only real costs are 5% deposit plus costs/duties. To be profitable, your property really only needs to make back about 9 or 10% in the next  4, 5 or 6 years to pay for those costs. Everything else is gravy! Chances of seeing it reach 275K ? Pretty good I would imagine, if you take the "doom and gloom" sentiment away and refer back to A-E, above.  Much more likely you'll see it reach 300+. 

    Anyway, just my two cents. But all that free equity… I think you are sitting on a fantastic opportunity to accumulate 2 or 3 little 250K 2 bedders right now and watch them make you quite a tidy profit over the next few years.

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