Forum Replies Created
- moxi10 wrote:Now the Chinese are planning a huge mine in the Galilee!
http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/chinese-mining-company-plans-dwarf-cq-mines-5b-pla/1692079/
Well…this might have something to do with it!
Hey Tony……don't you worry about King Coal mate
http://www.mining.com/coal-to-challenge-oil-as-main-source-of-energy-by-2017-28770/
Opportunities still about even in this depressed climate……
http://www.cqnews.com.au/news/investment-in-a-whole-lot-of-coal/1688559/
I think Gina already has her water solution by the looks of things Tony…..
http://www.cqnews.com.au/news/producers-alarmed-as-water-allocations-sold/1507717/
Freckle wrote:JT7 wrote:If the US entered hyperinflation and the $US devalued to zero one would assume tangible assets such as precious metals, hard and soft commodities and property would increase in value….
Cheers Jack
Assets and commodities are valued in a number of ways. A currency collapse or high inflation doesn't improve their value in external currency terms. PM's may rise in US dollar terms but remain the same in AU dollar terms if the US currency is falling.
This may be the case however, what will be evident in relation to PM's is simple supply and demand.
If and when financial systems erode, and I'd argue we are witnessing the erosion of both the US and European systems right now, the well informed including nations such as China, seen recently, will 'hedge' and 'protect' their wealth using Precious Metals such as gold and silver. As people run to PM's to protect their wealth global stocks will decrease. Just as in times past right throughout history. In relation to silver it's also an industrial metal so demand should be even greater considering the urbanisation of countries such as China and India. Silver's above ground supply is reportedly far less than gold.
For example gold was trading as low as circa US$710 an ounce in 2008. Silver circa US$9.50. November 2008 the US began it's Quantitive Easing program and printed vast amounts of currency. Today gold is US$1,676 and silver US$31.83.
Not bad gains in four years but the most important point is that you've hedged and protected your wealth.
jmsrachel wrote:What about the poor buggers who have money in a term deposit.Well………
In a high inflationary environment I wouldn't want to have money in term deposits that's for sure.
Hold enough cash for a little cash flow and for expenses/buffer then use PM's as a hedge against high inflation……
If it's the case the RBA is forced to send the cash rate down to 2% it's a clear indication the economy is in trouble……
2% would be a historic low, would it not….and would appear be a disparate attempt to stimulate the economy.
Some extremely interesting debates and theories being discussed at the moment.
It's interesting to witness what's happening in the US….Another QE and the banks printing more and more paper currency. The value of the US$ is being devalued and perhaps they will enter hyperinflation…..
Nixon took the $US away from the gold standard in 1971 and created paper currency basically giving the banks a license to print money.
If the US is printing more paper money creating a fiat currency then everyone else is printing paper money…including us.
If the US entered hyperinflation and the $US devalued to zero one would assume tangible assets such as precious metals, hard and soft commodities and property would increase in value….
One things for sure DWolfe it's going to be an interesting ride….
Cheers Jack
Ailime wrote:Is it considered "too late" to enter the market?I saw a house advertised on Domain for 279K, which was sold for just over 10K in 2001 and 130K in 2007.
Depends on which market, hold time, growth drivers, risk profile along with many other considerations.
Hedge the risk and invest in these regional hubs that will support the development of the Galilee Basin resources.
This is a significant time in history as we are at the infantile stages of the opening of a whole new region (Basin) supporting a huge capacity to mine coal and it looks like gas as well.
The position, right now…today is comparable to getting in at the bottom of other similar resource rich regions in the country such as the Bowen Basin or North West WA.
Hey Tony,
Check this out mate…….
It's on the way!
http://www.cqnews.com.au/news/lots-in-store-for-tiny-town-capella-on-brink-of-ho/1659423/
Hi Josh,
I appreciate your point of view and I do agree in principle with what you say.
Greed will always play a significant part in markets like Emerald on all sides of the equation from investors to developers. It's all part of the cycle, simple supply demand.
Also true, those who have entered the market without completing their due diligence have taken a hit and I have watched investors, as you quite rightly have stated, purchase at up to 10%-15% over market value. Similar units to mine in the same location were purchased at a 12% increase in price…….
Unfortunately due to external factors the rental market has softened considerably and at the present time securing a tenant is a challenge. Those who purchased at inflated prices are not going to get the returns they once thought they would until we see the market improve. Fortunately those who purchased well are going to be able to reduce rents to secure tenants.
What I don't agree with is people trying to benefit out of the market by pushing false facts and figures but this seems to be a phenomenon seen in all markets. Once a market ramps up developers jump in and aggressively try and drive sales. Statistics and figures that are published in magazines like API and YIP are trailing what is currently happening in Emerald. As a result I see many websites trumpeting house and land packages and OTP products using these statistics as marketing ploys…… I recently spoke to one developer in Emerald and he had to concede in the end the real facts of what was happening in the market. Your recent blog on the issues surrounding what has happened in the Emerald market was an accurate depiction of some of these challenging macro factors. However, developers are still pumping out new builds at inflated prices and demand just isn't there at the moment…..
Don't get me wrong, I have a lot of faith in the Emerald market my research tells me that. I feel your frustrations on what is happening out in the Galilee Basin however, you and I both know it will happen. My research tells me GVK should align its finance towards the end of 2013. As soon as these companies deal with the productivity issues, export coal volumes should increase significantly. GVK/Hancock Coal has gone too far now to turn back. Coal prices look to have found their bottom and are on the way back up so that is encouraging.
As you also have said, there are some opportunities out there for the savvy investor, but I would encourage anyone looking to purchase in Emerald at the moment to really investigate the market and get a handle on what is really happening at this present point in time.
Cheers,
Jack
APWPG wrote:Hi Guys ,i have made money from his mentoring ,i don't know weather he has a crystal ball or a soccer ball ,i am not worried about the ball i am only concentrating on the money bit and the profit .What sorcery is this……?
Show thee self mysterious shadow…..
One whom promises riches but deliverer of none……
I command thee!
(Sorry one to many rum cans whilst watching 'Fellowship of the Ring')
Portfolio PI wrote:Investors are still active in the market however they are not hitting it as hard as the first half of the year. Historically this has meant that once all the stock is taken up and a new project/s come in to play, rental properties can be hard to find and therefor rents increase, investors come in again, and prices go up again like we just say. Hopefully next time they wont get as greedy and shoot themselves in the foot.Personally, I am building in Emerald next year to hold for the long term and am happy to do so.
Hi Josh,
'Hopefully next time they wont get as greedy and shoot themselves in the foot.'
What the?
Just thought it a strange comment from you as you are very active in the market as a investor, developer and marketer. Power to you mate, that's business…but all participants drive the market including myself. We're all part of the problem and solution I would have thought……
APWPG wrote:I know of a great guy who has got answers to all hot spot and where to buy and where not to buy .He is an mining town expert,if you want to more about him just send me a message i will put you in contact with him .I'm sure he is……..
It's friday…..I'm in the mood for some 'expert' information before blowing the froth of a couple.
Enlighten me oh guru of the mining towns……
moxi10 wrote:Arhhh thanks Tony……what I was trying to say but only better communicated lol.
Coal price has hit the bottom and on the rise following Iron ore which has rebounded back to $122 a tonne.
LOL……
I don't think the coal story is any where near over but certainly there are many factors and Freckle does make some interesting points. Certainly agree with some of what has been said on China and the US.
However, Europe is now turning more to coal which is interesting and demand is steadily rising. Freckle I think you are correct in relation to coal being a cheap energy alternative and with the world under economic stress coal demand is strong and getting stronger in the short to medium term.
We may not see a price 'boom', I think we have just come out the other side of price rises, but the quantities will continue to rise.
Like any cycle once the world economy comes out of the slump, which may be a long while yet, then perhaps cleaner energy sources may be more of a viable alternative.
I don't necessarily agree with the prognosis on India. I think India should grow somewhere around 5%-7%. Very interesting Freckle to hear your thoughts on the infrastructure difficulties in India…….
This issue could be a major contributor to the reasoning why it's more economical for India to come to the Galilee Basin and establish mines, rail infrastructure and port infrastructure……. At any rate it must be a good thing for Australia to have such massive investment happening.
