When charting un navigated waters, there is not yardstick, and oz house prices are at record levels. We dont have enough data to come to any firm conclusion here in oz because we only have small amounts of historic data relative to other countries with centuries of house price data. Interest rates can trend in one direction for between 30-60yrs, h…[Read more]

The long cycle can last anywhere between 10-25yrs, then as market conditions change, so must asset allocation, unfortunately for most fund managers, they find it difficult to change styles, and wish to stick to the asset class that has made them wealthy, unfortunately markets do not work this way, as every market eventually goes into market decay…[Read more]

In the long cycle the less decisions you make the better if one is grounded in correct market sector. Of course holding onto a bad position is financial death, and this is where extensive knowledge is key, it takes at least 5-10yrs of serious study to really understand it, and as much practical market participation as you can handle. Although…[Read more]

Like i said, the aussie property market may be different, and may not experience distribution of strong to weak hands, but i would not bet on it with a large property portfolio, thats just my personal view. Perhaps the distribution will occur with frequent shallow sell offs of less than 10% endlessly, but this is all speculation, history is l…[Read more]

Maybe I'm getting this wrong, but are we then suggesting that precious metals were a good buy 10 years ago and they too, are now overvalued?I am not saying they are overvalued, valuation of precious metals would take many pages to explain and any simplistic explanation would be misleading, in a nutshell precious metals are rising because fiat…[Read more]

SMSF rule changes have increased participation in the housing market, allowing another massive pool of funds to enter the property market and prop up values, the bigger the bull, the bigger the bear, unless we re write the record books and have the first property market in history to never correct.

Smart money is and has been flowing into assets that will do well during inflation.

Financial markets are not rational, this is what forms manic/bust cycles. No market is immune to these forces. Anyone overweight property in their portfolios should be very careful, as we are in the mania phase in aussie property IMO. The signs are obvious to anyone who is objective. Maximum public participation, easy money lending, low interest…[Read more]