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there is a old saying in the travel industry, if you cant afford insurance u cant afford to travel. i think you can apply that too the housing market.
what do you mean yorker??????
So you have just got into the housing sector????? Look, the way i see it, things will be getting a lot worse b4 it gets better. Wait untill the election is over and interest rates start moving north, it will really hit the fan then. the smart ppl have sold they properties now and cash will be king. If you guys cant see that then you will be in hard times in the next 3 years. the australian market is way over priced, just look at how many ppl are posting about properties in NZ, what does that tell you.
i just wish you all luck and be very careful.House price fall a record
September 2, 2004A RECORD quarterly decline in house prices and a fall in the number of building approvals for the third consecutive month support signs of a cooling housing market, latest figures show.
Approvals slipped 0.7 per cent to 14,438 units in July, compared with a downwardly revised 0.4 per cent fall in June, from an originally reported rise of 1.5 per cent, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.
In the year to July, building approvals fell 5.1 per cent.
The market median forecast was for a 2 per cent fall, reflecting other indicators show the housing market easing despite surprising resilience in the past three months, economist said.
Meanwhile, the house price prices fell 1.2 per cent in the June quarter for a 10.9 per cent decline in the year to June .
This follows a resurgence of new home sales, which were up 17 per cent in June and July.
“Once again, building approvals continue to hold at a reasonably high level, although today’s result is the third consecutive decline,” UBS chief economist Scott Haslem said.
Mr Haslem said the drop in June quarter house prices had been driven by a 5.4 per cent fall in Sydney house prices and a 3.3 per cent fall in Canberra house prices.
There was quarterly rises in all all other capital cities, ranging from 1.0 per cent in Melbourne to 4.2 per cent in Hobart.
“All up, today’s data continues the ever so modest downward trend in building approvals, with units up and houses down, despite the more significant downtrend in lending for new construction.”
He said the building approvals data was consistent with a sustained relatively high level of activity in residential construction for at least the rest of this year.
“On house prices, the 1.2 per cent fall in the second quarter is a record, but that’s in nominal terms. In real terms, house prices fell much more significantly than this during the early 1990s,” he said
RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong said the key private sector house component fell by 2.8 per cent in the month, with a downward revision to the previous month, to be down almost 13 per cent in year on year terms.”
Private sector house approvals were 12.9 per cent lower over the year.
She said the 1.2 per cent decrease in June quarter house prices was a very modest decline given the strength of this index over the last couple of years.
“Today’s data confirm that the housing sector has turned after the frenetic pace of activity and escalating prices in recent years, especially 2003,” Ms Ong said.
“However, the data also suggest that housing activity and prices are holding at relatively high levels.”
She said housing data and developments remain consistent with a soft landing scenario for housing and the economy as a whole, with “the continuation of reasonable firm domestic demand for some time, especially given the healthy state of the labour market and amount of fiscal stimulus still in the pipeline”.
Ms Ong said yesterday’s national accounts data highlighted the robust pace of demand.
“Election or no election, the RBA probably has time on its side, although risks must be building amid such buoyant demand and labour market tightness. Ultimately monetary policy is about the assessment of risk, and this continues to favour further modest tightening later in the year.
“We remain with our base case scenario of another 25 basis point hike in November/December.”
Analysts note that with the upcoming October 9 election and the current intense focus by both parties on economic policy and interest rates, the Reserve Bank of Australia was likely to stay sidelined during the campaign and be reluctant to add fuel to the political fire by moving interest rates when the board meets next week.
The central bank has held interest rates steady unchanged this year at 5.25 per cent.
Tomorrow’s retail trade was expected to print another strong number in July, as the federal government’s tax cuts and $600 family payment bonus continue to filter through the economy.
The ABS will publish the July retail sales figures on Friday.
If you want +cash flow then you can forget major capital growth.
Agent smith, i dont know what you are talking about. The Uni has been relocated for 3 years now and with other development to follow, thurgoona to me, will be shown great groth in the comming years. The golf club has recently under gone a multi million $ upgrade and land is being snapped up asap. You say you know central, south and east albury like the back of your hand, well i just hope you are not buying your properties in these areas. !/ south albury( drug dealers corner re: plummber st and surrounds) is known to flood when ever a big down fall hits albury, also have you bothered to see what a internal by pass will do to east albury???? (yes thats right split albury and east albury right thru the middle. You watch the service and development move out to thurgoona in the comming decade. If you had any sence at all as a “developer” you would be talking to CSU for there needs for student accom.
Albury Wodonga has an aprox population of 75 thousand ppl, for many years wodonga has been out growing albury, but recently albury’s prices have came back into line with wodonga. Albury is known as a transit city where travelers and truck drivers take breaks going thru to melb and syd. Both alb/wod have major industry ranging from BTR a gear box maker to uncle bens. There are two major unis one in either town that cater for city kids. Recently the surrounding areas have seen major increases in property prices, my choice right now is a place called thurgoona. Its approx 5 km from albury cbd and just recently the albury uni has moved out there. Also another point of interest is the bypass that has been planned which will cut thru the middle of east albury, this by pass runs straight past thurgoona, so my thinking is that alot of ppl will be looking at thurgoona as this will now link them to both alb and wodonga cbds with in minutes, but have all the benifits of semi rural life. cheers
Has anyone heard of portland surgical products???? I think its known as the needle factory?? If so can you tell me anything about it??? where it is how big it is and anything else.
If interest rates hit 9% this forum will no longer be around, try finding a cash flow + deal trying to repay a 9% loan. The USA is moving and further intrest rate jumps will come in the comming months. I have also read personal debt has hit a trillion $, thats over 50k per person (this alone is enough for a couple of points rise in rates.
Kay, either way he has been taken hook line and sinker, my advise to him is go and donate your time to a real charity (salvos) and stay well away from investing.
Salubrious, Why never buy a lease???? If the lease is long this can be a very good way of getting into a business that has very high turn over and net profits, the secret to leaseing is to keep buying years on your lease, never go below 15 years left on a lease or it will be near impossible to sell. One of my leasees buys a year at the end of the year (it costs him just over 10k p/a to add the year but the lease time never changes. Have you had a problem with leaseing??? I would really like to here why you dont like leases. Granted you are better off buying a freehold, but freeholds tend to go for 3 times the amount of leases. I would rather have a lease that is pumping, than buying a freehold for the same money that cant support you.
you say in your post, a turn over of 120k???? that doesnt seem much to me. 120k would be a ok net return.
or the managers had put alot of the locals off by the way they were running the place, this often happens when new publicans take over, people who hadnt drank there for years start comming back.
Why pay $500 to be told when and where to take holidays.For $600 per week you can get a really nice apartment in most places. There is a reason they died out in the 80s leave it at that.
Make sure your patner is the licencee, as he will be the hands on partner who will be around most of the time (last thing you want is a phone call to come down to the pub at one in the morning when something has gone wrong and the police will only talk to the licencee. Also find out if you are contracted to any beer or liquor company eg you can only sell CUB products and finnally make sure you staff have done all the relevent courses eg responsible service of alchol and gaming. And one last thing, find out what clients this pub atracts, go in there with a few mates on a friday night for a few and see if the local hells angels roll in, also its a good idea to go down to the local police and see if they have had many call outs ( the police are your best mates in this business, get to know you liquor licencing officer (will be the best move you ever made. (this is also a great time to see how good the staff are). Also i would set it up as a pty lty company as this will protect your personnall assets.
turning 4 k into 12 k
I have a price target of 26$ b4 i get on NAB. Take a good look at a small cap share that is on the rise. I have just bought into a little BIO share with a heap of upside in the next 6 months, its called Eastland Medical Systems EMS, they are doing all the right things ATM and i beleive good news is just around the corner, RE: large contracts and positive Cash flow. EMS is currently trading at 34.5c but i have a price target of 90 to 115c in the short term.
I own ems and i strongly advise ppl to do there own research. This can be done at http://www.asx.com.au . Go back thru all the latest announcements and you will see what i am talking about.
Russh, where will it stop???? What happens to you when your doing your next deal and some one lays a sob story on you?? You need to treat all investing as business. Never get emotionally attached to anything or anyone while doing business (out side of business is a totally different thing). Offer her what you are prepared to pay taking into account the costs involved to get it to a renting stage. If i was in this situation i would offer her a fair market price, if she acepts thats great if she doesnt then thats fine too. What im trying to say is if you bring emotions into doing business then sooner or later you will be taken for a ride.
I would used the 4 grand to educate myself, so that i could no longer be renting and in a low income job.
Nothing sophisticated.
Finance is easily available. If prices fall as ‘John Howard’ is saying (and mark you I don’t expect that type of across the board fall in prices) then that will encourage a great number of people to exit the market taking their profits of the last 3-4 years.
This is crazy talk acey!!!! You are talking about current conditions, wait untill the recorection, banks wont be handing money out like they have for the last 5 years. Banks will be revaluing properties and the ppl who are to highly geared will be asked to show moreequity and if you think im talking B.S then just go back to the late 80s and see how many banks were doing this. Revaluation will kill alot of australian investors in the next couple of years
Originally posted by Aceyducey:Quote:Originally posted by john howard:Its in my opion that one interest rate rise will see the market go into melt down.
Ahhh – another Doom Sayer.
I love you guys – you make me so much money! [biggrin]
Cheers,
Aceyducey
wait for the 20% correction to happen, you wont be making to much money then
weston. As you said there might be a 10% drop in houses if the market does go bust, But as i work off a cycle of 7 years, your house in 5 years time in my opinon might only be worth the same as todays rates, no to take other thing into account for eg inflation and so forth you are stuck with a property that is worth 250k in 2009 which in real dollar turms in 2009 might only be 230k. To sit on your hands and do nothing you are asking for trouble. Its not the money you havent lost but the money you havent made.
