Forum Replies Created

Viewing 20 posts - 961 through 980 (of 1,142 total)
  • Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    As anyone who follows my post I appreciate honesty and really can't abide those who do not tell the whole storey

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    Got your message will call you,

    Land is the big money play in the US.. Thats were the fortunes are made and are going to be made and Frankly were I have made my biggest hits over the years. . I will send you over a link to a property we have in Oregon that is a rain maker and  the kind of deals we look at.

    D Scott is looking to pull in the lending horns and concentrate in Oregon, there is a good market for new construction hard money loans here. We did not get over built with new construction and the bank owned homes have been absorbed…

    Still short sales and bank owned used homes but the picky buyer wants something nice, like what your talking about on your high end retail flip……

    My borrowers in Detroit had retired cops at their rehab jobs signing workers in and out, most thefts were inside jobs.

    We just do not deal with this in Oregon, you would be amazed, no one fences a project no security houses left un locked even with the Heating and airconditioning units installed, those would be swiped in most parts of the country within hours of us leaving the site.

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    Nice report Alex,

    Being a native californian I can speak to stockton and Bakersfield….

    Stockton is a very tough town huge crime problem. When the vietnam boat people were coming to the states 30 years ago they landed in the central valley of the US. so you have big gang problems. in those areas. And the melt down of values was epic with huge subdivisions of vacant houses…. Way to many houses to sustain a rental demand right now.

    Most investors for these are Bay Area or LA as they can drive to them and a lot of the investors are chinese.

    The values of these houses peaked in the 400k plus range and were like vegas and Pheniox fueled really by speculators feeding on one another when the music stopped the prices crashed.

    I think Rochester passed some ordinance's against foreign investment there was some GB companies that absolutly slaughtered their clients and a few from Aussie I think….. The GB guys really like Detroit becasue of the brick houses and they make a ton of dough selling these.

    For the rental markets to turn into retail,  ( at about the time we loaned your company money Alex) we were doing a lot of retail deals in these rental areas of the South. Its all about FICO score if lending is to return FICO scores for first time home buyers need to move down to the mid to low 500"s then you will have owners coming back to these 60 to 80k houses that are now being bought by investors. if Fico stays 620 and above your comments are correct, expect long term cash flow and limited to no capital growth.

    when your talking about planning on 6 months of income I can just hear the sucking sound of the investors on this site as most of the companies selling them properties never even mention vacancy.  I come at it different but get there the same way, for quick and dirty analysis is one just takes the rent cuts it in half that is about what your going to net cash flow. then subtract any mortgage cost from this last half and all the fee's it takes to set up in the US. and that will give you a comfortable net return, If you do better hey thats great.
    I

    If one is looking for capital growth I personally think the best buys in the states right now is LAND that is stratigically positioned, thats were the big money is going to be made in capital growth not going to be in single family homes.

    Pheniox and vegas are ones to look at although one of my best buddies owns a large management company in Pheniox 1000 plus units and vacancy is an issue, both their and vegas. Another one of my partners on different deals has been buying Vegas 4 plex's all in 180k or so that rent at 2400 a month gross. For them they are from Japan and they look at 5 to 7% as a great return. I sold them a 70 unit apartment here in Oregon that has a 5 cap they paid cash and they love it. There is a difference between investment grade and the stuff that is management intensive like the lower end cash flow properties.

    Alex check out the Detroit thread 20% returns you will get a nice laugh…. that was interesting the promoter there made some bold statements then got taken to task by another of his Detroit peirs. then back tracked on true running costs and at the end of the day admitted he owned NO property or rentals in the areas he is promoting.  You will get a kick out of it.

    I did really well lending money there in the 04 to 07 time frame but then the market just free fell, and we ended up losing OH 300 to 400k on the last 7 or 8 deals we did. neighborhoods there will turn over night what was good turns into a war zone. Its really amazing and I love the STock the brick houses are great they were built by true european craftsmen in the day. But the renters that get in them now are brutual….. You need kick proof doors and the most of the guys in the know will put glass block windows on any opening that is street level… tough stuff those properties.

    I predict that vast amounts of these low end neighborhoods over time will continue to deteriorate and that properties will be come blighted and then eventually torn down. and returned to parks and open space,

    One has to keep in mind in the mid west there is no shortage of land like you have in Aussie or CA or Portland were we live. Its flat,  Very much like Texas they just build something new and trash the old. Thats why texas values just pretty much stay constant as well. Then the tax's eat you up there.

    Ok back to work

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    These are properties that I foreclosed on. most are pretty decent homes as I never loaned in the deep hood in the first place.

    these are loans I made in 06 and 07 at the peak of the market and am selling at a loss like any other lender.

    I do not buy them right now and resell them.  I am not a home flipper. we buy for long term hold. and I am not selling them for 5k I am getting 5k down and selling them for 30 to 60k depending on the house. I get 1k a month 0% interest so they pay off in 30 to 55 months. works for us as a lender because I never have to take these back, and I own them free and clear already written them down on the books.

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177
    mjcantrell wrote:
    Hi Trent,

    I have a couple properties that I have financed through private lenders.  The rate was 8.25% on a 3 year arm with a 30 year amortization.  My goal is to pay them off within the 3 years using the rents received, if that doesn't work they will allow me up to 5 years if the loan remains in good standing.  I had to put 50% down payment but it has allowed me to purchase more properties.  The properties are located in Kansas City.  I believe there are only certain areas that have this kind of financing available in the US.

    MJ

    More than likly your loan came from the seller of the property and your 50% down paid the entire cost of the home and the note they took back is their profit…. This is a very strong strategy for US sellers. Get all their cash back and have a nice note that you will probably pay back.

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177
    trent74 wrote:
    I was wondering if any Aussies have got hard money finance and successfully purchased a home with this? Has it all been going well so far? I have heard that hard money lenders are predators and actually want your home when you cant keep up with the payments?

    Being a hard money lender in my day I would not say we are predators, and I for one never make a loan to Own. I always want to get paid back If I wanted to own the home I just do what I am doing now and go buy them.

    hard money is meant for a short term. thats why the points and rates are so high, they are not intended for long term.

    One thing with Hard Money is a good hard money lender is going to Know the TRUE value of the asset not the puffed up value that these are usually sold at accross the globe.

    if you have true equity you should be able to get a hard money loan if it makes sense to the lender and if the rates and fee's work in your cash flow model usually they won't. And like I said they are usually only for 1 to 2 year terms with balloon payments.

    Just like Banks us hard money guys got burned in 08 when our clients could not longer get refi's so exit strategy is important.

    There is a lender in SoCal that I run some deals through he will give 8 year money at 10% interest with 4 points. thats about as long term and cheap I have seen hard money. but he only does SoCal and to experinced investors if your buying your first property he will not loan to you.

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177
    trent74 wrote:
    I wouldnt bother looking at website top 10 lists! I would work out what kind of investor you are (capital gains or cashflow or both) Then look at the cities that offer what your looking for then study hard the economics of the city and narrow your focus further then go visit the city to get a feel for each district or area also – go visit the "hood" and compare each cities hood. Some cities wont have a nasty hood. I was speaking to a company I am thinking about buying through and one of the guys said, you should go and try and find the hood in Indianapolis. They said it was nothing compared to some of the other big cities nasty ghettos

    Trent,

    Not true with Indy, I have done lots of business there not as nasty as the bad parts of detroit, Memphis , KC, St Louis but still very poor areas and if your buying the cheapest houses there you will have all the same issues. You may not get shot being their but your houses will get trashed  condenser units stolen all your copper stolen etc.

    Check out Kokomo, its 50 miles north 50k people I buy there for cash flow not a lot going on for Capital growth but crime is basically non existant compared to INDY. Home to Delphi and a large Chryser transmission plant.

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177
    trent74 wrote:
    Jay are you saying that every year section 8 goes through the property and nit picks at minor issues and will costs you on average of $1000 to repair otherwise they wont approve the house to be section 8 standard?

    Yes, Section 8 houses are subject to annual inspection the tenant has to reqaulify as well as the property, The inspector will come out give you a punch list and on average at that will run you anywhere from next to nothing ( very rare to have a section 8 tenant that is spotless and a home that needs no work at all) to 2k to fix various items. The average that we budget for is 1k per house.

    so you get the punch list fix the items get a reinspect and the property is good for the next year.  The tenant can also call HUD during the year term and report items that the HUD office will then come out and inspect and issue a corrective order.

    If you do not fix the items or the items do not pass the inspection the house is dropped from the program and of course the tenant is off looking for another property.

    Also Section 8 folks can and do loose their vouchers. The HUD office gets copies of their tax returns and if they made too much money they get dropped, and it can be mid lease term and the tenant will just walk away as they normally do not have the funds to stay in the property.

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    its really what area of the country do you like. and again having the team on the ground that will support you.

    the money is made and lost in property mangement and fair rehab of the property.

    If your talking low end rentals anyting under 100k you have to be buyer beward.

    get into 150 to 500k props and things change tenants are better by a factor of 10 usually. nicer houses less maintance etc.

    returns are not as good as advertised on ghetto 25 to 30k houses. but you rarely collect all your money on those houses in the Hood

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    Nathan

    I got to Chuckle you ask me if I own any properties in Detroit, and then when your asked ( have to hand it to you your honest) you admit to owning none. I put probably 10 million of my own money over the years into these properties in the form of hard money loans just in Detroit many many millions into other markets. Most of them worked but the ones that didnt were flame outs as I was lending when you could still get a rate and term refi and I was taken out very quickly. Its my clients that have lost 50% or bettor of their equity and their houses have been lost to the bank because they just could not keep rehabbing them.

    So your just like the dozen's of wholesalers I lent to over the years really, you make the middle man profit up front at settlement have no skin in the game other than your word that you will take care of folks, and now when confronted you back into ( hey I never said the units would be full 100% occuppied and yes one should have a reserve account)

    but your not unique very very few turn key operators actually own what they sell.  alot of them that I have done underwriting on have horrible credit No real cash and spend their dough as quick as they make it.

    Just like Real Estate agents I have known over the years that rent and have no other assets.

    Were as I own every single property that my investors choose to do with me.  Huge difference we have skin in the game all the way through the transaction. But again our investors give us equity in exhange for security and no cash calls. Its a win win for the true passive investor. Everyone of my investors already owns rentals they are sic of managing the managers and or managing the tenants and look at us as a vehicle to continue to make great cash flow and have the protection of a partner that has the financial capabiity to execute…. Its really apples and oranges vis a vi the safety for the investor. And of course before the equity split we do not pay anywhere near the 20% you claim as thats just not real if you factor in true costs.

    And Detroit is not the only city that is like this. Every city in the mid west and most of the east coast has these same issues. Whether its Indy St. Luis Kansas City ( KC who post here says he is happy if only 20% of the homes on a block are boarded) memphis, Pittsburgh Chicago, ( some of my worst loans were there) cleveland. I have lent and invested in all but Pittsburg and Cleveland. Invest in the hood and your in trouble invest in the suburbs and your OK… Like Memphis is real popular, but you get into fairhaven or South haven where the Great Britian groups are working selling these crap houses to the unkowing Brits these folks are going to get screwed just as bad as investing in the worse part of Detroit.  The reason these companies work these hoods is the wholesalers buy the houses for 5k or so put lip stick on a pig for about 10k then the marketing companies sell them  as CASH FLOW TURN KEY RENTALS for 40 to 50k and 25 or so profit is split between these companies. And since they are all cash transactions there is metoring device to tell the unsuspecting investor that they just bought a property in a war zone . They get the same old bullshit story, the house is rehabbed and tenanted, And 6 months later when the tenant defaults or loses their voucher reality sets in.

    Then of course on the west coast you have Oakland, Richmond in the Bay area…. Watts and Compton east LA for So cal. War zones and killing fields in each of these towns. I have never done any research but I wonder how many murders per year are in big Aussie citys like Sydney and Melbourne???  Each of the cities I mentioned have well over a hundred a year. Most gang and drug related, but they happen in the inner city which is the point Dennis is making.

    One last comment on Detroit….. Dennis makes a very good point. I have buddies there that have moved to selling on land contracts only and do no renting. They sell the houses as is IE no heating and airconditioning elec appliances etc. They buy them for 1 to maybe 3k and then basically sell them to what are sub prime borrowers as is. for 10 to 20k each. 500 down 300 a month fully amortized. they do not put a dime into them. These buyers then go out and raid other houses for materials put theirs together and do fairly well. Although Scott tells me the default rate is about 60%, but that means 40% actually make it to pay you off. So depending on the deal you get all your money back within a year then have 300 a month cash flow for 8 to 10 years. I have sold probably 50 of my personal REO's in this manner. Its not too bad its trashed house you sell in trashed condition if you get it back it could be in better shape but certainly will not be any worse than when you sold it. THIS is what we CALL SWEAT EQUITY DEALS>  Lots of this goes on.

    Lastly comments on Wayne county,   I could not agree more with Dennis its the most unorginized corrupt government body in the entire country, it can take deeds weeks to months to get recorded, I really do not know how title companys can even write title insurance there since the recordings take so long to become of public record. They need to issue gap insurance. And then do not get me going on the water bills and how they hold you up for that dough..

    Aussies,,,,,, If anyone is listening, What I would do is form your own sydicates in AU. pool your money and go into the states with a company that employees its own acquasition team rehabbers and PM.  You should form groups of a few hundred of you raise 10 million then set up a company to do this. Even with the overhead your will probably do 12% like we do because you control all aspects and you take the inificincies out fo the scenerio and the theft and over charging. This is what we have done. Everyone in our deal is an owner from me to the Property manager to the rehabber to our investor. One big team with one goal THE PROPERTY SUCCEEDS. not just one or two of the vendors the property and when the property succeeds we all succeed pro rata to our investment.

    If anyone is interested I do have some REO properties that I will sell for 5k down 0% interest payments 500 to 1000  month. in most of the major cities we are talking about. they will need work usually 5 to 10k. prices right at 15 to 30k total. you can own them in 30 months free and clear. Caveot they tough neihborhoods caution and stamina is required.

    I also have some great product in Oregon. Where we can do some zero interst financing on properties right on the pacific ocean and a great recreational vehicle park right on the deschuttes river which is world famous for trout and steelhead and salmon.

    I would be intersted in some Aussies comments i raised about the murder rates in AU. and if they would liek to buy reos with 5k down and 0% fully amortized financing.

    let me know

    Google Jay Hirnichs Portland Oregon. you will see Silverado funding come up thats my hard money company, I am not active in the mangement these days just retain ownership. Silverado group is my real estate holding company 10 mil plus in assets.
    The Truewholesalehouses.com is our latest venture into the lower end single families with my fully managed program.
    You can check on all of my state affiliations and licensing.   can't hide anything from Google :)

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    Nathan,

    I think the issue is when you make these blanket statements the Aussies want to beleive it in the worse way, The Aussie just do not realize unless they have seen it first hand what the sociodemographics of these areas are like they think of home and letting a unit to some nice Aussie and things are great all except their return which is why they are looking to the states.  and guys like me who have been in the trenches for years have owned more houses than most, been through 3 recessions, know that the statements you make are just not acurate. vis a vi the claims of return and vacancy and repairs.

    I made over 2,000 loans in the last 15 years to your fellow wholesalers and their clients, I have seen the carnage that comes to families when these investments do not work out. I still get the e mails and calls from past clients B/C their guy is out of business their rehabber screwed them their property manager is a crook etc.  Just the nature of the beast.

    I got an e mail last month from Scott McDonald there in Detroit he had a client that bought 6 houses in Memphis ( not from Him) and they are all vacant and trashed and he wanted me to refer him to a rehabber and PM.

    Just because I do not own rentals in Detroit does not mean I do not know the cost involved,  The costs are the cost no matter were you are tenants are tenants, No one is super Property Manager or rehabber we all make bonehead moves and or have a tenant we cannot control.

    Thats the issue Everyone in our bizzness just sells the sizzle or most do.

    My point is lets be real. Be over cautious with these Aussies do not puff things talk about real reserves and the real issues that can come up in these asset class and these demographics of where your working.

    This kind of reminds me of the Old Wade Cook get rich buying stocks. If half the people followed his model there would be no money left in the world as everyone is making 20 to 30% There just has to be loser's to balance out the winners.

    Basically I have no dog in this Aussie investor fight.  Just trying to give them some reality at the end of the day I do not want to see a bunch of nice people get wiped out like happened to so many americans in the last few years.

    Be it sub prime borrowers or investors that were sold these same bill of goods back in 04 05 06 07 who have finally given up pooring money into these houses.  And I was a huge enabler of the investors I made many loans that I should not have made looking back…. The first time investor just got slaughtered here in the states.

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    Nothing propriatory about how we do our deals.

    what I have done is marry the lending business with the ownership of the asset. Then created a team that are ALL equity owners. from myself to the rehabbers to the Property managers, We do not front end load except to pay basic overhead then we defer our profit until the assets are sold down the line. Our investor will recieve about 65% of the net prceeds and we get the balance. We handle all running costs ( thats fixed and variable expenses in our lingo). Our investor gets paid day one and continues to be paid no matter the circumstance.

    We can do this because we bring them into the average transaction at far less dollar investment than if they buy from the average turn key operator.

    so in exhange for set cash flow and never having a cash call, they give up equity to us long term.

    I can only do this model B/C my day to day cash flow comes from new construction here in Oregon and other investment vehicles that I have.

    Just like the investor coming into our deals this is a long term passive income play for us and we are doing volume.

    And of course it only works because we have some great pipelines for defaulted properties. I am leveraging my 37 years in the bizz my 20 years of hardmoney lending and all those contacts to buy some incredible deals.

    The other major difference is I buy ALL the houses up front. I do not use investors money to close our deals. And I do not borrow to buy my deals so I am not having to add in Hard Money interium fee's into my deals. Like all the guys I lent to over the years.
    So you limit the profit centers on particular asset purchase and the asset ends up going to our investor for quite a bit less than what they will buy it from anyone else given the monthly cash flows.

    And or like you are talking about,  we are able to buy much better properties that we feel are going to have upside,

    If you google my name you can check me out and get to my web sites etc….

    I have been contacted by many AU and BG companies and by and large they just want too much money out of each deal to make our model work and or I could tell they were just marketing companies with no depth or breadth of the US market, just by what they were asking me to provide them.

    Its certainly Caveot Emptor when working with these marketing companies. Not all are bad of course just like anything but some I talked to I could tell were hit and run artist.

    Thankyou for bringing your candor to this audience….

    Best,

    Jay Hinrichs

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177
    quickchick wrote:
    A few thoughts after reading the post…

    If you want to buy US property, get Steve McKnight's US Property Power Pack. Lots of education, much cheaper than learning the hard way..

    Decide before you set up a US structure (eg LLC) where you want to buy. Then set up your structure in the same state.
    And avoid costs of registering to run a business in that state for a "foreign" (ie interstate) LLC.
    You still have to pay state tax in the state you are doing business, from my understanding, whether your LLC is from a no state tax paying state.

    The only money you can borrow in US, is from (private) hard money lenders. Generally you need 50% deposit cash, they will lend you around 50% at around 12-13% interest in general. (The safeguard is, hard money lenders generally know the local market, and will not finance a deal they consider to have an inflated price.)
    Easier and cheaper, to borrow equity from Australian property. But beware of your liability to changing exchange rates, ($US to $AUD).

    In my opinion, if you don't have money to buy at least $100,000 of property, the net profit is not worth your set up and accounting fees for quite a while.

    Be prepared to do your own research.

    Jay, foreign investors can't get a SSN# unless they move to USA. They can get an ITIN however (similar to tax file number in Aus). 
    Easier to get an ITIN if you have an EIN (employer -in our case entity eg LLC- identification number.)

    To add to this I would think if one does not have enough cash to buy the first few properties they are engaging in very risky investment behavior that the US investor just went through    IE borrow against your home and leverage up with no real cash.

    What made it even worse a lot of americans borrowed against there houses and made such solid investments as a Cruise, new car, camper, the lack of home equity loans which are kind of non exsistent these days have added to down economy.

    I know when we make our hard money loans we will not make one to anyone who does not have 25 to 50k liquid. Been there done that on the ones that only had 5 to 10k in cash. These folks are just one upset from losing their homes.

    I am familar with ITIN.  I have not sold any of our product to anyone off shore but they only need the ITIN to invest with us no need to do any other LLC etc. as the asset stays in our name and our investor simply comes into title as the mortgage holder with an equity participation written into the promissory note that they now own 100% of. At that we pay 9% yeild plus equity with no down side, I know thats not enough to get anyone in Aussie excited as I have mentioned, But here in the states we are basically sold out of our houses and forming waiting lists. Our investors by and large are seasoned and just sic and tired of tryign to manage the properties on their own and or manage their managers. I love what we are doing best of both worlds with realistic returns and a very well capitalized asset.

    best,

    JLH

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177
    investlongterm wrote:
    I respect your opinion, and have respect for your experience, and I understand why you feel the way that you do. You did however answer my question. You do not currently own anything, and are not currently involved with the Detroit, MI USA market. I understand why you left. Many people did for that very reason. That's also a big reason why are having the success that we are. In every bad situation, there are always good things that come from them. Companies like mine are one of  a kind in Detroit, and I know that. But, again, I won't be able to sell you on Detroit, and I  have no interest in trying to.

    What I will tell you is that I don't buy properties from HUD, I almost never buy properties from an asset manager, and our properties do perform as I say they do.

    I said it before and I'll say it again…. if  you really want to see what our process is like, what our returns are like, and how we take care of our clients, buy a property from me and I will show you. Otherwise, we'll agree to disagree.

    Have a great week.

    Nathan I still own a few homes that I am letting go for tax's they are on Pinehurst st. I rehabbed them 2 times they got destroyed twice by the nice tenants. So that was 100k down the toilet…..:(   Good news is I can take that hit and keep going whats an Aussie going to do when they borrowed against their personal residence to invest in these very Dangerous investments.

    Like I said I think a local person there can and will do good running these properties staying right on top of them excetra, Thats what we do,  In our markets.

    We stay in each and every deal I keep ownership of the asset and my client is my partner I put my money where our reputation is we divulge what we make on each deal and we stay in till the end. Kind of like a triple net lease but not a triple net, I am the only one in the US that sets up the transactions this way, We pay for any vacancy we pay for maintenance, But we also do not give pie in the sky inducements of 20% returns.

    makes a big difference my mate when your selling a property and you close and you get your flip fee which of course you deserve to make. but at the end of the day  your not paying one dime out of your pocket 2 years from now when things are not quite going as planned for the off shore investor.  Thats the difference we own them till the end along with our parnter investor. our program is white hot in the states for its safety, Aussies are not keen on it because its too foreign a concept and B/C like I posted before they are looking for that huge return number and are willing to risk the down side in hopes of big APR's.

    My interest in this forum is just to bring the other side of the equation to the thought process. That :::::

    1. There is no such thing as an arm chair investment in the States in low end rentals.

    2. 20% Yeilds in these markets are not reality over time.

    Like Dennis below has stated your first post is just so off base as to be laughable to a anyone with any experince at all in this asset class, and of course I have no doubt you will get some calls from those that for whatever reason will beleive your statements like they are fact B/C this is what they want to beleive.  Heck if they are only going to make 7 to 10% why buy US rentals at all, I think we all know there is absolutly no potential in the homes your selling for capital growth you have admitted that.

    So at that I will sign off of this thread and let you the forum viewers decide if your right or Dennis is right.

    My money is on Dennis for his candor even in his hometown and market.

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    Dennis and Nathan

    Finally someone who will tell it like it is in regards to what the  Aussies call running costs. Every turn key operator in the country basically low balls these expense's…

    Just saw the http://www.bidforassets.com e mail for the Wayne county tax sale 13,000 properties being sold, I take it these are absolute sales not tax lien.

    To further my point in my earlier post when I was talking about Doug at DeBeers construction and property management. His office was surrounded by razor wire and everytime I visited him his front window was smashed and under repair, and he had bullit proof glass and a bankers teller slide for tenants to slip there Money orders through or cash as it were. On top of that he had retired cops with sign in sheets at the rehabs B/C the workers would come back and steal things at night on the very jobs they were working.

    I really beleive Nathan that you can succeed in your market and run these properties like we do our own portfolio but to bring in these foriegn investors into these markets is just a disservice to them. What happens when your not there to help them. No one stays in business forever I know our model changes about every 3 to 5 years. only a handful of the Turn key guys I loaned to are still in business, its a whole new crop coming up. selling the same thing.

    But really to the Audiance here.

    Dennis supports my claim

    The US by and large is a 7 to 12% cash flow market over time…. Yes first year you can get the Higher returns but they will deminish as repairs and vacancies add up not to mention thefts.

    Nathan,

    I still have about 8 loans on the Books in Detroit, just hoping and praying I get 50% of my money back.

    We have  section 8 in our portfolio but in areas of far less crime and demographic turmoil. 

    Well only a few more weeks till Devils night a city of Detroit highlight :)  just kidding but its pretty amazing to see 200 plus homes on fire in one night.

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    KC

    Owner occupied deals are happening all day long at 3% down FHA that is the majority of the sales just like High Income stated. I think your talking about non owner occ. or conventional deals and conventional deals on the west coast are those above the FHA limits, which are depending on the area 380k up.

    in the mid west I am not sure what FHA maximums are but I think they are probably about 200k or so.  Its really a credit score issue you have under 620 and your not getting a loan. These big box banks as you call them ALL sell their loans to freddie and fannie with the big banks just servicing them. FHA then guarantees them. in the ole days you could get FHA loans in the mid to low 500 fico score.  Although Wells will sell you an REO of theirs with a 580 for owner occ.. 

    The other issues is the banks really check income much closer than they used to. And I am not talking just lier loans. I did have 2 sale fales in Aug. here in Oregon and have not had that happen in years. One was owner occ FHA and the underwriter just prior to funding doubled checked income and cash reserves buyer fibbed about them loan died so did the deal. The buyer was left with no place to live. The lender did not get paid of course the agent bringing the buyer did not get paid, And my house did not close. I ended up renting it again.  Then I had a 4 plex that I owned not close as the underwriter got picky and demanded 50% down instead of 25% still cant figure that one out. But your right its happening.

    What your describing is really a sub prime borrower , which runs very heavy to minority borrowers African american and Hispanic, and there is no question these buyers have been taken out of the retail market at a greater rate than non minorities, except the Nuvo riche' Chinees buyers of the west coast. Just look at any property in Cupertino CA. or Palo Alto CA. average price in excess of 1 mil and plenty of buyers.

    For these reason's The % of homeownership east of the Rockies has plummeted in the big cities. Heck look at a city like Memphis 60% of all single families are rentals and this before the melt down. Other cities in the mid west and I am talking every single one of them the % of home ownership has plummeted especially in neighborhoods that are minority, Any one can check these stats.

    As you stated I think homeownership for many has changed for the next decade and maybe as you state forever. its going to take a new generation coming into purchasing power that cares about their credit and can save 5k to buy a house in the mid west.
    On the west coast were I  live you need to save 10 to 50k for FHA.

    I know when I bought my first home in the late 70's you needed 10% down then a private lender ( hard money would give you a second for 10%) The banks at that time would only lend 80%.

    You then had thrifts come into the market S and L's they were called and the sub prime was born in the mid to late 80's. Our area saw companies like Long Beach S and L there were thousands and they all got hammered in the late 80's to mid 90's with thousands going out of bizz.

    We are just seeing a big replay only much worse than in those years. Its Deja Vu all over again

     

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    You can make the case and stats about 20 + other metro cities in the US.

    this article in my opinion is meaningless

    I think the general wisdom is the US market is a long term hold,

    so it really boils down to quality of neighborhoods and property management

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    Just go to E bay and buy a used course on tax lien investing in the US for 50 dollars and have it mailed to you.

    that will give you all the same info. this stuff has been talked about written about over and over and over through out economic cycles. these companies selling this info for these large investments are in the Info business period.

    Trump is only in it because there are huge dollar returns selling info that cost them next to nothing to put together and then hire super slick presenters and get you all hyped up and you gladly part with your money.

    Or go to Amazon and find a book there are many of them.

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177
    property_scout wrote:
    Hi Jay, Agree with some of your points. The benefit of buying turnkey compared to "pre rehab & pre tenant" property is that running costs are real and active before you purchase. The numbers you cant really forecast are vacancy and maintenance and this always needs to be factored in. The guys at AmericanRealEstateInvestments advise to allow 10% per year for vacancy and also up to $500-$1000 for a property clean every time a tenant moves out (new internal paint, possible new carpet or floorboards re coated) Always try to factor these figures on the more conservative side so there are no huge surprises once your deal on paper becomes reality in your bank account!

    '''''

    Getting better on divulging running cost. Good rule of thumb is to factor 50% of your gross rent to expense side. If you do that your going to be fine most of the time unless your house gets trashed in between tenants.

    I think its a fair assumption that these are long term holds 5 to 10 years minimum. What happens in the first 12 months of ownership is the best its going to be numbers wise you have fresh ( should be quality rehab and new tenant). I think it fair to say:

    1. No house stay's rented 100% of the time so there needs to be a vacancy factor I think we can all agree on that.

    2. Letting fee's; most profitable ( and you want your PM profitable so they stay in business) charge a letting fee unless they have wrapped this into their up front profit.

    3. If you have a section 8 tenant your annual inspections will rarely come under 1000.00 and you have on going cost with a majority of these houses. Unless your buying new or near new construction. If your buying 20 to 80 year old homes stuff does break or wear out and the tenants are tough on the properties. Or you could have a sewer plug up or any number of small issues that will create a service call that you will have to pay for on top of a turn over mini rehab. Again its not the first year its year 2 ,3 ,4 ,5 and so on that your going to see your cost increase I think this is only logical, and of course what we experince in our portfolio's.

    4. Your not going to paint recarpet or stain your floor boards for 500 bucks, I think thats a given

    I just think its better to have a contingency line item in your budget that gets you to that 50% number, Us US Real estate wholesalers and lenders of which I am one, have seen SO many US clients lose their properties because

    1. they borrowed against their personal residence to buy these.

    2. Had little to no experince in the business and put 100% trust and faith in the nice salesmen that was selling it to them.

    3. Totally undercapitolized to being buying property  IE once they spent their downpayment they had no cash reserves to pay for major items. Like when their Air condioner unit got stolen and the property was vacant for 2 months and kids got in and did damage and now its 5k to get it rentable and they do not have the money. Ergo the house goes into foreclosure and is recycled stock for the next investor to take a wack at it.

    One great thing that I think is happening is most transactions are cash these days either US investors using their super funds or Foriegners this is better than leveraging and creating the extra burden of debt.

    There is a reason local community banks in the US will not lend to anyone who does not live within 100 miles of their property, Managing them is a big job as is managing your manger.

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
    Participant
    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 1,177

    nicely done I agree with you 100% on your rehab process.

Viewing 20 posts - 961 through 980 (of 1,142 total)