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  • Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    There is no question that the US has some great pops

    My 30 years expience dictates that arm chair investors. IE. Out of area need to be far more cautious than those that live and work in their markets

    ONE THING TOU CAN TAKE TO THE BANK IS THAT 50% OF ALL US FORECLOSURES COME FROM LANDLORDS THAT GAVE UP AND WALKED AWAY FROM THE PROPERTY. AFTER DUMPING GOOD MONEY AFTER BAD THEY FINALLY GIVE UP AND LET THE BANK TAKE THE PROPERTIES.

    Fast forward to the new wave of investor. 95% that buy hood properties. IE super cheap us props will at the end of the day let them go to taxes….. I know I havE let my share of props go for tax’s in hoods that turned and the hoods are beyond salvage

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    Speedy

    The selling of junk US properties is a global activity. And just as many US companies that run the gambit of poor to out right felonias activity as described in this thread

    Bottom line you get what you pay for……Just seems like sales agencies are really preying on those that want to believe in the 20k house that’s going to give them some huge return all in the comfort of their Easy chair

    Of course there are basic s one should follow when buying properties

    Would a buyer in OZ just wire funds direct to a seller or would they use an attorney or closing company?

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    Mr Davies

    Please contact me I will be happy to bring charges against this person company. Need imperial data to support your claim

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    Alex,

    I have a good client in Detroit that I lent money to for years and 99% of the deals worked.

    Richard, I would be happy to refer him to you…. He has a sweat equity program that you may be able to get your property into that will at least get you a little cash flow with no further investment.

    Not to be negative however if your home has sat unattended and un loved for a year in inner detroit which it probably is, there is a high probablity its beyond salvage. IE has been completly stripped of copper appliances heating and air conditioning etc. Unless you bought it boarded up and it stayed boarded up.

    Youngstown is one area I did not make any loans, although I did a lot in columbus and like certain parts of OHIO.

    For anyone reading this forum. This transaction as described from Mr. Davies if accurate is out and out theft and fraud.  It would be interesting to see if this company actually bought the properties and did not just steal the funds that were wired direct.

    All real estate transactions as matter of law do not need to go through a title co. or attorney, they can be handled privately and be legal. However for a out of town regardless if your foriegn or US investor to wire money direct to a marketing company or sales orginization is very danegerous and not recommended. Proper procedure is to wire funds to National title co. or Closing attorney. And you have to be careful with closing attornies as well not all are what they should be…

    Mr. Davies your recourse is to file a criminal charge of theft with the District Attornys office in which ever county you wired your funds. And to the State attorney generals office in which ever state you invested. Companies like these need to be shut down.

    here in the states we have so many fraudsters its not funny, To then get Aussie fraudsters on top of it makes it that much more difficult.

    The scenerio you describe above is far more common than one would like to think. And if you buy the cheapest war zone hood properties in the US. It does not matter if you visit do everything right excetra your going to lose your money or you will put so much money continually in the property that you will never ever get your money back and will be just flushing it down the toilet bowl.

    I know there are some good operators in Aussie helping folks, and they make their fee's. but the ones that are bad are really bad.

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    Richard,

    Based on your comments if the city has tagged them as blighted there is probably some significant issues.

    If you want to send myself or Alex Franks the address's with zip codes and state. We can find out who the legal owner is within 5 mintues no need to pay any money to an attorney at this point. And establish what tax's may be owed excetra.

    Then if the property is in a market we have contacts and we have them in most turn key markets we can have someone do a drive by snap some photos for you and give you a down and dirty report…

    Jay Hinrichs
    [email protected]

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    AH we agree on one thing strongly and thats property management.

    When I get to Miami I will make it a point to come and meet with you.

    Alex may be coming to See us in Oregon in December.

    I don't drink anything that is brown,, only clear

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    KC homes.

    I know you have put a lot of stats together that are very helpful for those investing in SFR rentals.

    What would you say is your average length of stay for your tenant's,

    I think this is a factor that folks would like to know and to put in their cash flow analysis, not including the unexpected vacancies from lack of payment or tenants creating waste…

    If turnover is happening once every 18 months on average and an average "make ready is 1k to 1500 buckaroos and if someone owned the home for any length of time this would affect your overall rate of return
    JLH

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    Ok mates lets hug it out

    Alex. I will send you info on lots I have been buying in the s east

    Also I have a reputable contact in Detroit

    I personally would not invest a dime there but flip a deal i am happy to pass on a contact as you know Detroit and Wayne county is a challenge for anyone who does not live 5 miles from the props and anyone who lives that close would never buy one :)

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    might just do that I have a tenative trip planned to Miami… YOu just shoot over the through the glades correct to get there?

    We are buy and hold these days I only open up markets that I can buy 2 to 4 really great properties a month and my managers have to be vested owners in the properties.  No third party vendors for property management for me anymore….

    JLH

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    Cheeves what do you do are you a real estate agent, or are you a first Gen wholesaler?

    Google earth is a great tool you can really hone in on areas and see first hand the differences between each neighborhood.
    anyone can get on google earth and see what I am talking about. and they can see what your talking about… Your talking about close in ft. meyers but even in those areas you will see plently of blocks where there is less than 50% build out….

    My point is some people will buy a house that looks grand and call it Ft. Meyer but its 100 blocks out in Lehiegh stuck by its self like you point out. But on a photo it looks like a nice 5 to 8 year old home. And In my opinion those particular properties are great if you want to live in one or use as a rental as for appreciation of any significance its going to take decades in certain part of ft. myers. You certainly can't buy a near new construction ( as long as you buy from 1st gen wholesaler) any cheaper in the country and have florida weather if you like florida weather.

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    Alex,, lets chat this week kind of funny to be using a Aussie forum for communications from west coast to east coast.

    There is another market in the Carolina's I would like to move into next year with my TWH model.

    Atlanta is so huge You need to pick an area in my mind or a county or 2 and try to be an expert in those areas, thats what I have done at least. And of course being a low volume operator I am just looking for those 3 or 4 best deals a month in each of my markets  and Homes I want to own long term. I pass on all sorts of opps that come to me that are then flipped to other investors
    both international and states based.

    Pheniox seems to have bottomed out as well, and wholesale prices are rising in the better areas. Can still get deals on Trashflow type properties but the better deals got swooped in the last 24 months.

    I am looking at starting a sister company there and going after a section of the multi family market that has been ignored or passed over some really good long term cash flow and cap rates. And I have one of my long time partners here in Oregon that has set up shop there so we self manage as a partnership, so I keep my model of everyone who touchs our property is an owner.

    From an idea to inception to execution the last 12 months I could not be happier or prouder than what our group has done with TWH…. And our investors are just thrilled, I predict in the next 18 months we will not be able to take any outside money it will be all referral business I did 4 this month that are folks coming back and investing with our company again.

    One of my clients has sold all 30 houses he had in Dallas and is picking off a note a month with me.. he just could never make any money in the Dallas market with the wear and tear letting fee's and VERY VERY high property tax's…

    At the end of the day I would like to be in 10 stable markets picking off the finest properties and being very choosy of what we buy and who we partner with. We are in 3 now with PHX next as I stated. And then I would like to start in a particular part of Coralina for number 5.

    Ducks play the civil war today… that sounds like it should be an SCC type game.  Me I am a cardinal grew up a few blocks from Stanford and Steve Jobs. Went to the same High school same grade smoked pot with him, But did not drop LSD like he did I guess thats were I went wrong :)) He was a true visionary and a tough and quirky SOB. Us Jocks all thought those guys were the biggest nerds on the planet I guess were that got us.

    JLH

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    Alex,

    the US stock market would not exist without sight unseen investing.

    Up until recently I was telemarketing at least 5 times a week from some New York brokerage selling the lastes and greatest un registered security.

    Huge amount of international fruad going around regarding energy and metal investments.

    I just came back from Upper British columbia where these miners had a huge gold claim. It was laughable, If you know the term Gippo Logger that is what these guys were. Your money and my ideas and we will go far.

    JLH

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    Great post lawsys and CF

    Like CF says most of the audiance on this site has one thing in mind and that is monthly cash flow and that cash flow better darn well be 15 to 20% a month or its not  a deal.

    Since financing is so hard for out of country buyers they have to default to what they can pay cash for.

    Foreclosure business is highly competitive in the bigger markets, with wholesale prices being established by the local buyers.

    I know here in Oregon and southern Wa. there is about 20 of us that have controlled the court house step activity for as long as I have been buying them which is circa 1995.  One thing it is not is a free market auction deals are made and cut daily. Is it legal hell no and some have been caught by the FBI… But does it happen Hell yes every day in every market in the US.

    Cheeves and I were talking about Ft. Meyers.  where wholesale first gen prices bottomed at 30 to 35k per house. From what I know now and its second hand those numbers have risen 10k. to 40 to 50k wholesale.  And some with the Chinese dry wall have been for far lower. ( love those Chinese craftsmen)…

    Time will tell on appreciation over the next 5 to 10 years… however in my 35 years of doing this, one thing stands the test of time Supply and Demand.

    I think that is why CF and Laweys can talk about Manhatten going up in value with 4% cap rates. Not alot of new construction there…. Same with other markets that are confined  BAy Area  ( SF West side) although prices never got to 200k and never even got to 400k on the penensulia they are still 700k to who knows what a google billionare will pay.

    LA is more wide scattered Not an expert there but I think closer to the beach and Orange county the better, Inland empire Temecula Palmdale got hammered.

    Same with most of Florida like CF and I have been talking about in another thread.

    I personally think the big money in the next 5 to 10 years will be path of progress plays. Big developable land holdings in West coasts and upper east coast.  At least I hope so I have a few that are poised and if they hit off life will be good.

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    Rob,

    If you have not checked on property tax's then you need to put the brakes on Texas just about the highest tax's int he country and can make or brake an investment.

    I have one client that owned 30 homes in texas and never made a dime because of expenses. He sold them all and is investing in our fully managed program. And this is an investor that owns millions of dollars of rentals, all over the country, I met him here in Oregon. We are a nice divisification for him. He fix and flips and occasionally fix and flops like all of us.

    What you want to look for in texas is the NON OWNER occuppied tax… It can be much higher than for an owner. Tax's in texas can be 2 to 4 times as high as other markets.

    Before you invest just call a Real Estate agent that is neutral and then call the county tax collector. Tax's will very from neighborhood to neighborhood in texas not just county.

    In markets I work in owner occuppied taxs with the exemptions can be half or more of non owner occuppied and what happens is that the house gets foreclosured.  ( which most if not all of the properties your looking at have been) and they had owners in them and when you look at the tax's they are very low. Then the deeds is recorded your not living there no exemption is allow and your tax's double. And when your looking at rates at 2 to 4 % per year its can be 200 to 300 a month on a Dallas home.

    Not say where your looking will be that high but it can. I have a buddie who paid 225k for a house he lives in, in dallas and pays almost 6k per year. and thats owner occ.

    So just be dead sure before you pull the trigger in Texas.

    Best of Luck to you.

    If you want to see what we do send me an e mail and I will send you our web site.  Our model is hugely popular in the states not so much in AU as its a foreign ( no pun intended concept) Much safer than buying on your own but returns are realistic not over blown like you see on the spruikers web sites.

    Best,

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    Hey Alex nicely done,

    lawsys and I have had some off line communications and he is a seasoned investor.

    I think the bottom line here is

    1.  Novice investors

    2. Investors wanting to gravitate to who gives them the best presentation regarding return on investment

    3. High yeilds in AU banks 5 to 7%

    4. The reality that over time  ( not the first payment for first year all of these folks comment on ) that the yeilds represented are just not sustainable if you are ( not cheating at Solitar) anotherwords counting everything into the equation. This is the only Real Estate invesment Scheme I have ever seen in my 35 years that investors make these investments on Projected returns and not on actuals. And that in its self says a lot about the individual investors experince and knowledge. There is no experinced or knowledgable investor in the states that is going to take the word of some RE agent or Wholesaler as to what they can expect down the road…. Experinced Investors want to see 2 years history via tax returns and supporting documents of what the asset will do. You would never get a loan on an apartment building based on trumped up proforma data. Any lender ( me being one will knock those proforma income estimates down 20 to 25% and thats for the experinced investor.

    So you have all these people buying single family homes thinking they are going to run like clock work and thats just not the case. Not the end of the world but just not going to be what is represented. And a lot of them are really going to get tired of the day to day of all the issues that comes with being a US landlord. That part is really not spelled out well in these forums.

    Its funny…. really some clients will agonize over a 100 dollar fixit item other will not care. But when their aircondionting unit got stolen and the copper is gone and its 10k to fix their 40k rental then thats an issue.

    What is not conveyed here on this forum is that in the US   RATE OF RETURN IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO RISK.  

    Buy investment grade properties at 5 to 7 caps and you have not many worries. Buy low end rentals at returns that are represented at 15 to 20% and then your setting  yourself up for the big bummer as Lawsys suggests.

    Now Alex on a local front,

    I have been having a few te' ta te's with posters on Linda Pilagas site. pretty funny really you should check them out. One guy was promising 100k plus unsecured LOC's with little or no credit checks I had to flame him.

    then the next guy was Guaranteeing loan mods with 50% reductions of payments for anyone that came to him and paid his fee.

    The Feds are all over the loan mod guys as they are just flat out crooks, the unsecured LOC guys are no better most are out of florida or Wyoming send them your 500 to 2k and you will never hear from them again. I mean really there is no such thing as unsecured LOC's these days I still have a legacy one but thats because of 20 years with same bank perfect credit and assets.
    How is some newbie US investor with 2k in the bank going to borrow 100k to buy foreclosures all unsecured.
    These people prey on the wannabees. Same thing is happening here only the Aussies have 30 to 100k to spend and a lot of them just chase like I said the best story,

    JLH

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    Rob,

    Why would you choose Dallas out of courosity with all the other markets in the country, and especially markets that have much lower property tax's and have much better chance for captial growth.

    I understand the economy in Texas is good and the properties have been stable compared to other areas.

    Most of my US clients that have gone there exited because of the running cost and the market never moves.

    Best

    JLH

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    Cheeves.

    Okay you got me there I went on google maps and if you take Leheigh and the surrounding areas you could get 500k lots. I know I remember it from my trip in the 80's I would not just pull it from thin air.

    What I saw was about 35 blocks by 100 blocks with 30 to 50 lots per blocks. So 90,000 plus lots is a good number. And if you hone in on google maps you will see less than 50% occupancy per block unless your very close in to the city center.

    So I guess my point is you have enough legal lots of record to create what  ( at 2.3 person per houses hold and take the entire Ft. Myers area which is certainly 500k plus lots or better . 1.3 to 1.5 million folks, not sure what the pop is now. However I would venture to guess there is no where near the road systems and other infrastructure to support full build out. that was the purpose of our field trip there.

    As well as with supply and demand when you have for sake of aurgument at least 50 to 75,000 vacant lots and lot prices at 5k and up. Prices will have a very tough time ever getting above what it cost to build new. ( if not impossible because you will not get comps to support loans) So 20 to 25k lots with or without sewer,. Block construction which is what is done there in S. FLA very standard to modest finish's and your talking a 50 to 60 buck a Sq to build product end of story. At least in those areas.

    You take a modern subidivision with amenities maybe gated security club house golf course and that dynamic changes  quite a bit.

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    I like the ones that have a 15 inch fan in front of the Oven going full blast trying to blow hot air in to the house.

    On this thanksgiving weekend I guess thats not so funny as they are not as fortunate as us

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    agree to disagree.

    At least I am right about the utilities.

    I think if one use's google earth you will see what I am talking about and its far more than 16k acres. I own a 1k acre tree farm in Oregon and its just a tiny dot compared to Lehigh.

    Sorry to hear the broker died on that 100 house package, was  it foul play or what.

    I do not dislike Ft. Myers in a general sense, I am just reporting what others that I have done business in Florida say about leheigh and coral. they would never invest there they like the miami side.

    And there is no question that the foriegn investor has picked up the pace of buying US properties. They rarely bought them 10 or 15 years ago for cash flow rentals. they bought for second homes as you say.

    There is no denying that this has created a huge industry in AU. selling all sorts of Areas of the US.

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    glad to see that the local area planners have made headway in their infrastructure issues.

    Not to be argumentitive however I know for a fact that there are 500k platted lots of record in Lehigh Acres.

    My point with the assessment for sewer and water is that in all probability the tax's for a lot with public sewer and water are going to be higher than those lots without, Someone has to pay for those utilities and the most common way for municipalities to do this is through 1910 act or 1915 act Bonds that attach to the tax bill. One would just need to look carefully at your tax bill to determine this.  Just like if they pass a school bond or liberary bond.

    Any way no particular axe to grind with this area, Although i do know other Florida clients of mine that will not invest in Ft. Myers B/C of the issues that we are talking about.

    And if I was on a limited budget for a retirement home ( used to not be but now who knows:) ) This is an area I would consider, When I bought those 2 foreclosures for 35k each… it was my opinioin that this was probably the most cost effective place to live in the entire world. You get all the US has to offer in the way of medical, stable government, police protection weather ,etc. And these were 5 to 7 year old homes. They were in the country as you say were there are blocks of 100 lots with only a few homes on each. But heck for the price, I don't think you could really touch them.

    Now at 85 to 95k there are all sorts of options around the sun belt CA desert AZ desert and FL. And everything being equal in that regard I personally would look to other areas… Just my personal opinion.  One has to remember in the height of our false market these same houses sold at 250k and the lots we are speaking of were selling at 75k to 100k.

    I bid on one 120 home package from a bank about the same time, Alabama builder got caught with inventory, the houses were scattered all over Lehiegh.  We bid just under 100k each and did not get the deal and as it turned out these same houses finally went to auctions at the above mentioned 35k which was the bottom of the market. Like I said these same house's now are 40 to 45k and some 50k to first generation buyers. the 85 to 95k you mention is after fix up and Profits to those who are in the turn key business as again has been described above in detail.

    Still not bad price points if you like the area. As for a long term investment supply and demand are the factors that really dictate capital growth. the exisiting stock will only rise to what is being sold as new construction at the time and then back off 10 to 20% because they have been used as rentals.

    In that case one could no doubt pick up one of these 20k lots build for about 50 to 60 a sq ft. and be in a brand new home at 100k to 120k. So 85 to 95k for the exisiting stock is probably were its going to set for awhile,

    In addition one of the main reasons these homes have risen in value is the effect of the off shore investor be it GB  CA or AU.
    these countries are creating their own markets in these areas

    Anytime you have a highly orginized and financed marketing effort targeted at one product  "turn Key US homes"  the sale price of these items is going to be significantly higher than what would sell for in a local market without these external pressures. Take that buyer away and values drop back to supply and demand within the local community.

    the reason certain parts of the west coast have not had these huge price drops is because of this supply and demand.

    One only needs to look at San Francisico. Price's leveled and maybe there are a few deals but there is nothing like the 70% to 80% price drop as you saw in FT. Meyers areas.. were a 250k house sold at auction for 35k…. that is simply a supply demand function….. Way too many houses and no real local demand.

    Now you can drive 90 minutes inland from San Francisco to whats called the Sacramento and San Jauquin valleys. Where you have the west coast version of equity wipe out.   Stockton, Modesto, Merced and many other smaller towns. Builders went in search of cheap dirt. put up thousands of homes with no real local market demand or jobs to support, Investors came in from the Bay Area like flys on poop, paid what to them was a cheap price just like. The same theory the Aussie is working on, Their houses on the pennensula like Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Cupertino San Jose, values rose incredibly were average prices were close to 1 mil for a modest 3 and 2 built 50 years ago. They look at these central valley homes at 350 to 400 and think what a deal. market collapes these homes lost huge amounts of equity, second generation investors are picking them up in the 100's.

    Same scenerio in Los Angeles. prices within 20 to 30 miles of the coast line have generally held with some of the real high end getting wacked, But the inland empire houses have gone from the 300s into the low 100s and under. Same land rush speculation fever that was common in the day.

    Would I want to live in Garden spots like San Bernadino, Riverside, Imperial valley heck no….

    But I think that gives the audiance a little perspective of whats happened. And make no mistake as I said these 3 countries are having profound impacts on our Real Estate by buying up these properties. I for one am greatful. It creates cash in the market place… most of these need some sort of rehab so hard goods are being bought and wages being paid.

    Do the foriegn investors get the best deals, In most cases no way. the locals beat them to it. And of course you have enterprising Aussie's coming here and setting up shop… With you see capital growth in these wipe out areas I have described. Not really in my mind because of the avaliablity of lots and the price to build new… And when the renters start buying houses then the rental market will get back to were it used to be. I think this is 5 to 10 years off though,

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