Forum Replies Created
- BuyLandOnLine wrote:Light rail is not a failure, it is the way of the future, it needs to be paid for and will be paid for even if my pretentious neighbors in their suv's fight it tooth and nail, they don't want bus service either, it allows the riff raff access to our pristine community. Snobs
Stu I think its common knowledge here in PDX….about light rail.
I mean you live 15 mintues from downtown but Light rail does not service anything South where half the population lives only east and west and a little north. so your forced to use a car. And I am sure you do not personally take the bus what is 15 minutes on a bus line would be an hour or more.
My son lived in the SE off of 39th by REED college and he took the bus all the time if he wanted to go downtown.
Its the same issue with BART BAy Area RApid transit system. They did not encircle the whole bay area or go to SFO until many years later. So yes those that live right on the line benefit but half the bay area could not use it.
Our Hillsboro project will have a 10 mintue bus ride to Light rail so those that want to go downtown and not drive will have better access than anyone living south.
I own a few lots in Lake Oswego as well and I have done the gamit here in portland acre estate lot 6k sq ft house, then moved to one of my condo's, and now moved back into one of my new builds.. I plan on building on my lots in Lake O in 2 years. Although I am up here on cooper mtn and like being above the fog.
thinkpic wrote:Thanks, particularly to jayhinrichs for your thoughts. They were timely and much appreciated.Hope it helps in your thought process and your investing.
I am still waiting though for folks to weigh in on my question..
Stable markets Vs a vi Massively defalted markets to be or not to be that is the question.
I would really like to hear others thoughts on this… And rationalization for whatever postion you take.
JLH
I don't know Stu,,, things go in cycles. The pearl was hot and south water development they could not give the remaing inventory away and converted to apartments. And their are new apartments being built I see Urban city stuff going more renter.
there is always going to be those that want a yard and space, only so many people want to live off of a hall way.
a lot of the urban loft condos went to retire's I knew half a dozen they moved in from the burbs. lasted about 2 years then left most for the desert.
One just needs to fly over Dallas ( as I do every 60 days) to understsand the amount of subdivision activity going on. either developments sitting or new construction starting again.
we are financing one builder in Houston right now.
And even Atlanta has new construction. Thats why I am picking up lots there…
In Portland you don't sprawl as much they just shrunk the lots… building lots are now 2k sq ft to 5k sq ft max.
Our hillsboro 110 acres will average 10 lots to the acre and will have a whole mix of residential type. maybe we call it mini sprawl.
And since the light rail is a gigantic failure here in PDX people just are set on their cars for better or worse. Maybe in another 20 years they will start using it to any kind of capacity.
Your talking about depreciation recapture, tax reform of 1986…
If you depreciate the asset then sell it the subsiquent new basis is the cost minus depreciation. This assumes you put no money into the property over the life of the ownership, which in a rental even a higher end one is not going to happen so you get to add back in to basis those expenses. Not sure if your travel gets added in or just expensed.
The theory being your saving on tax's while you hold it ( taking the depreciation deduction) and when you sell you pay at a lower rate which is capital gains rate.. Question would be can you choose not to depreciate the asset, I never thought about that will check with my accountant on that one. Other question would be can you participate in a 1031 tax deffered exchange? you could sell and roll up your basis and gain into another investment and not have a taxable event until you liquidate.
so if you buy a property for 200 k…. hold it 14 years depreciate it to 100k sell for 200k you owe tax on the difference 100k or at cap gain rate 25k state and federal depends on which state and I am not certain of Texas state tax rates if any so if there is non your paying federal 15%.. So if the depreciaiton has sheltered your income for those years to the extent of the tax being paid when you sold it your braking even.
I think the other fly in your ointment is to run your numbers with any appreciation componant. I have not talked to one person in the last 10 years that ever sold a home in Texas for more than they paid for it, unless they were in the business of buying foreclsores and flipping them to turn key investors. We get a lot of texans relocating to Intel here in Oregon, I just had one through one of my New constructions and that was the topic they sold for 20% less than they paid for it 4 years ago and it was a 300k price range. Nice home in North Dallas. So they were on a tighter budget than if they had just sold it for what they paid for it.
Now if your buying these houses at what you percieve 30 to 50% less than market value and it can be proved by recent comps then thats another matter. and you should be fine. If your just buying off the MLS and looking at free market homes then your paying full retail that is the value what your paying for them.
New construction just competes to heavily with existing stock… So I would look more on cash flow like the rest of the country than planning your whole investment strategy on annual appreciation. At least your realistic about your net returns at 6 % after factoring everything, thats a breath of fresh air for this forum,
I made another post about whats better right now??? Investing in the states like Texas and its lack of movement up or down in values compared to other markets that got crushed in values.
IS it better to think your buying in a stable market IE property does not move either way. And it really does not matter because your not selling anytime soon.
Or is it better to buy in a market that has seen huge deflation rents are the same as texas, and the markets really have only one place to go and that is up. And with the price points so low say an Atlanta market 50 to 70k buys you a really nice rental that rents for 850 to 1000 a month. Even if it drops 10 or 20% thats only 5 to 10k big deal. the base economics still support the investment as you ride through.
Can these houses (Atlanta) pop back to 80 to 100k retail your darn tootin they can… Will a house in Texas go from 150k to 250k same percent gain in 5 years absolutly 100% no way no how… Just look at Texas its in exaustible land supply, next to nothing land use policy's Urban sprawl for miles. They just build the next new subdivision and thats were the good retail buyers are going to go to something new.
Of course there will be close in Pocket older establish blue blood neighborhoods that will counter this. But on average talking about sub 200k housing this is how it will play out, has played out over the last 20 years and will continue.
Lastly before you pull the trigger in Texas be sure to get the bottom line on your property tax's… 150k home can have 200 to 400 a MONTH in property tax's.
Thats the question buy at the bottom or buy in a market that never really goes up or down. Has huge running cost compared to other areas,
Hope that gives you a few things to contemplate.
1. recapture is a fact.
2. appreciation is a myth right now and specualitive and should not be used in any proforma
3. Is it better to buy in a crushed value market or a market that treads water
4. Property tax's make sure you double check and triple check
5. Lastly in Texas besure to inquire about foundation and soil issues. You can get a cracked foundation in Texas very easy if the foundations are not cared for correctly. Like with the drought they just had a responsible homeowner was watering the ground around the foundation. You get soil movement you have a 10 to 20k problem. Do not take any realtor or turn key guys advice on this one call an Soil engineer, and or companies that adjust foundations there will be plenty of them and have your property looked at when you buy it and they will let you know what needs to be done to keep this from happening. beleive me I have learned the hard way on this one in other markets. Homes can get cracked like an egg in this part of the world due to foundation and soil expansion contraction issues.
Hope this gives you some non baised views to at least double check, if every thing still checks out then best of luck and thankyou for investing in our country Lord knows we need it.
my point exactly failed investors. takes a pro to keep these properties working right. not a absentee landlord
Well with the US economy only the weathly can afford round the world trips. So hats off to you folks
Keep bringing those foriegn dollars in we love it.
buy the better props like your doing and you will be much farther ahead.
Also at 115k I would venture to guess your not netting 20% ROI on that investment, something far less but you can sleep well and not worry bout the day to day.
There is a direct correlation to the quality of the rental and tenant when purchase price is taken into consideration.
Thats why investment grade income property in the states trades at 4 to 6 caps…. And those that trade north of 10 are maintenance intense and need Onsite owners or owners that are not relying on 3 rd party management.
Alex SC wrote:jayhinrichs wrote:Probably the banks selling their own inventory would be my guess.and a smart move for the banks in my mind the Aussie investor with 20% or more down is a better credit risk than a nothing down US owner occ. Dual sources of repayment… One rent two investor.
Jay we been talking with Danny and his group.Looking at less fee's and some type of 3 to 5 year loan. Since the investor is putting 50% down.Just finding the back end lending is the tricky part .I now see why you said it would take a larger fund. Then what I had in mind.The group I discussed with you was talking $2m .Which would do nothing and be gone in one month.
Hoping to have an answers in next few days from them
Talk soon
Alex
PS you should have an email from me Yes bid $12k on that property I sent you..when your speaking of longer term financing for these properties you locking it up 5 to 10 years. And I really hesitate for any loan that has a balloon payment. As there still is no clear exit from those other than the borrower coming up with cash.. And some investors you know will not extend and will go after the property they may say they will look at extending but when that day comes who knows.
It would be great to have a fully amortized 10 or 15 year product. However I was running the numbers with some Aussie wholesaler guys and when you do that the return cash on cash is only 5% or so until the debt is paid off. And of course that gives Aussies a stop right there because they know to be compettive they have to quote 12 to 20% to run with the pack..
Where US investors would be thrilled with owning a rental in 10 years or so free in clear even if it did not make any cash flow or cost them a little a month. Different perspective that.
Alex SC wrote:quickchick wrote:Sure, Jay.
We'd like to hear your thoughts!
The only thing I can think of, if stuck with a property that is not delivering, and does not seem to have any solutions, is to sell.
If anyone wants to buy it!Yes and no some banks selling properties super low because they are stuck. Some investors make big mistakes buying to many( if they paid cash they are willing to dumb good buys can be made ) . About 3 years ago when hard money companies started dropping here in the USA. I went to them and tried to buy all the inventory they had in my markets. Knowing they needed to sell ,and most were cash lenders not real estate guys.Two different worlds lending capital or being on the ground and understanding the real estate product .
So always worth seeing the properties and why they are being liquidated.My team has been in negotiating with Lawyers ,banks for 2 years on a 67 house package of homes in my area. My accepted offer 2 years ago was $1.1million. Now today we have conference call my new offer is $600k. Since the value has dropped and the area has gotten worse. So I know there is a dollar there to be made. Rehab should be with all $350k ( high but safe number)
Just always find out why and then see the properties for your self.
Never want to step over a a dollar to pick up a nickel…
Alex
Lets run by these next month this could be a good pick up for TWH C D class rental pool.
quickchick
What I am talking about is an alternative to selling for cash and loosing 50 70 95% of your investment which is what will happen when you unfortunate enough to have bought in a really rough market, unless you can find another unsuspecting out of state or area investor the locals will know its true as is value
There is a whole scheme that companies that I have financed have put together for these assets that help the owner at least start to recoup and they have better than a 50% chance of having some nice cash flow for 4 to 5 years.
Its impossible to do on your own or through a property manager you need to have a true equity partner on the ground. But it has worked on probably 30% or more of my REO inventory accross the country, And the alternative was huge loss's for us.
I am happy to just make the referrals with the proviso that they keep me informed as to their progress and success.
Cheeves we can share war stories. Although mine were a little more personal as I was loaning my own money. And rely on the rate and term refi to take out our hard money loan.
My apithony came as I was on a cruise ship in the mediterranian listing to US BBC… And thinking <moderator: delete language> we are in trouble.
As I owned the company and relied on my LO's to underwrite we went back through files and it was the same think you stating.
Fed ex driver in LA borrowers to buy 4 homes that he put no money down ( remember hard money was truly equity only loans if you wanted to compete) he had the nice credit score 700 plus nice stated income 75k a year. but next to no reserves. And we had a take out commitment from CW which up until then had been closing 40 to 50 refi's for us a month. We were like the titanic took us 2 months to put it in reverse but we still hit the ice berg and ended up with about 100 loans that had no refi home.
I then proceeded to spend then next year in the field working through these deals and at the end of the day owned everyone of them. This experince gave me a unique perspective as a lender then as foreclosing agent then as a lender in possession then as a rehabber then as a lender trying to sell their inventory ( which as we all know if its a lender owned asset buyers offer half) the whole market feed on itself going south.
One other closing that will always stick in my mind was one I did in Detroit when I was backing a few flippers we were doing equity shares and it was working nice we would make 40 to 50k a house.
We were at a wet closing ( buyer and Seller at same table) here comes Mr. buyer I am Mr. Seller I just happened to be in Detroit when this closing was going to happen. So being the snoop I am, I was reading his loan docs upside down then his credit report kind of slipped out of the closing package here are the stat's.
19 years old African american not that it matters but it does to some pundints who blame the AM and Hispanic market for the collapse.
Fico 560
stated income
Cash back to Buyer at closing for rehab and repairs 19k
So I am sitting there going <moderator: delete language> this is a first payment default if I ever saw one what lender in their right mind would underwrite this deal. Even as a hard money lender in those days my clients had to be 650 or so and above and prove some income.
so there is the crux of what happened in the lending world. With Atlanta, Detroit, Memphis, Rochester, and other areas as the poster child for these types of loan activies and basic loan fraud.
here was an asset we bought for 10k we did put 25k into a nice reno apprasied at 95k. buyer got 95% loan we took 35k profit as per our contract and the buyer walked like I said with 19k… that was suppose to go for future renos' ext.
My guess is it when right to the car lot bought himself a hoopty ride with 25 inchs rims a nice big screen probably never set foot in the house and the bank took it back. And some other sub prime low end investor bought it back after it got stripped for 10k and starts the cycle all over.
After that deal I told my guy I can not be party to these any more and we stopped that activity, It cost me 100k to do that as I had bought 2 more houses with this same guy and since I could not flip them I rented them there in Detroit they got trashed 1 time then I reno'd them once more only to have them trashed within a year and I finally gave up quit paying tax's and they have since been sold for tax's.
See my post on the new Paradigm… vis a vi mortgage foreclosures and tax sales in the future I bet any one a steak dinner and a bottle of the best Penfolds cab. that I am right on the money..
Get ready for the new wave of buying houses through tax sales from those who finally give up. With all these cash sales taking place in the inner city that will be the next go to investment that the guru's will pitch and sell books and tapes on.
Best
JLH
Good job both of you, with the key note: Job its a job to search these out and pick the right properties.
whats so foriegn to the US investor is there are far a few US investors who could possibly get enough time away from work to travel accross the globe mulitple times, spend the time on the ground and do all that needs to be done to be successful then know they will have to repeat the process over the years. Just would not happen with the average US investor. One because the deals are in our back yard.
However I have to think unless your independently weathy how the heck to you get time off from work for all these trips and what is the cost of these trips they have to cost 5k a trip I would imagine and if 2 or traveling double…… Do you take those cost into account in your profit numbers.
I was communitcating with one gentlemen privately that liked our model but just had to have the 14% plus. return. So My advice was get on a plane and move here and go into business.
Let us know how it goes in years 2 to 3 would be curious. I like that your buying better homes you will have by and large better luck with tenants. I just cringe when I hear of the rust best 15 to 20k homes. those I know are management impossible for out of area investors only ones that can manage those are people that live there and literally knock on doors to collect their rent.
Gotten private e mails a plenty, and have been referring them to folks in the select markets that I know and have vetted and will help them through these.
Especially Detroit I have great contacts there
although some properties are beyond salvage. But most can be turned around with no further cost and generate a little bit of cash flow.
And take the stress level off of the investor.
Probably the banks selling their own inventory would be my guess.
and a smart move for the banks in my mind the Aussie investor with 20% or more down is a better credit risk than a nothing down US owner occ. Dual sources of repayment… One rent two investor.
Stu,
I think Portland in the next 20 years will be like many Metro plex's its too big to think that all development has to happen in downtown. Like Kruse way has taken commercial.
Its better to have housing closer to the Jobs and Washington county Hillsboro is the Silicon Forest, There is no physical room in or close to downtown to accomodate any type of CLEAN industry like High tech.
The majority buildable acres in the Portland metro area is for better or worse where are property is located.
Portland and Oregon along with Multnomah county have taxed themselves into a NON business environment. Thats why so many business's have either left the state or left Mulnomah county. big timber left.,, boeing, etc etc.
any way enough on that. We are very please with our path of progress play and just wanted to share….
Will be no problem rounding up a few PDX investors that know the market and the land use politics
I post this mainly for the AUssies to see what kind of options their are instead of buying low end rentals that really will never have the up side as well place land deals, I think on that we AGREE right
Alex SC wrote:Hey Guys just FYI not selling here but we do order C L 100 ( termite letter )per property and inspections reports. This is a no brainer. Make sure who ever, or where ever you buy this is included.If someone is not willing to provide either one of these..that should raise a big question mark.Again this is not rocket science but there are steps to use to protect your self and the investment property you are going to by.Appraisal not to crazy about them as they are speculative value
Alex
Alex,
We do pest and dry rot here in Oregon, but the major problem is Sewer laterals, here in Oregon. Dry rot to a certain extent.
Not much if any termites
When I reno one of our older properties I just replace the Sewer lateral as a matter of course just like painting the house. Sewer plug ups are one of the number one problems and when you got a tenant in there they are major issues as the sewer lateral replacement companies know they got you over a sewer barrel.
We used to get a few termites in CA. I can remember houses getting tented and gas blown into them
GreaterKCHomes wrote:jayhinrichs wrote:The absolutly most risky US real estate investment is the Super high cap rate multi family properties in the bigger mid west cities of the US.— I don't know that I would neccesairly agree with this statement. The midwest is the best area to invest if you are looking for cash flow, always has been and always will be. The midwest offers something no other region can, and that's tenants in massive numbers. This is the very 1st rule of business after all, be where the customers are. But to be fair, if your looking to buy and sell, there are much better options than the midwest (well except maybe Dallas, geez that place is tearing it up), I'll be the first to admit that.Talking about a city in Tennesse is most likly talking about Memphis, and if you drive around memphis you will see 50% or better of the apartment complexes big and small boarded up, waiting for the next group of investors to come in and make a run at their cash cow 30% cap multi property. Only to have it boarded it up after they have lost hundreds of thousands and then the next group comes in. And its a never ending cycle.—I really can't speak to Memphis, as I have not studied that market, but I have heard things from both sides of the fence. If any MF deal is being advertised at 30% CAP, then there should be major flags being thrown. This number is simply not attainable in apartments, without making serious cuts to the renovation, in which case that property will not perform at 15% CAP, let alone 30%. I know there are those that seem to believe that because they say it, then it must be true,and it's too bad that it is that way. Of the complex's I am partners in, we consistently see high teen returns, I imagine we could get this number into the low 20s, but since we do convert to all electric, this is a major expense in an apartment complex and causes are NETs to drop a few points.
For those on this Forum these super high cap rates are extemely risky and I can flat guarantee the only people that can make these work are ones that do it for a living and live with in miles of the properties. Have their own in house management that are employees and have full time security guards at the property.— The properties are only risky, if they are not professionally managed and renovated. The deal never fails (unless you overpay), it always comes back to management or the renovation, that caused the failure. My associates and I have bought and renovated several properties in this exact scenario that you describe, a local investor bought it, renovated it as cheap as possible and thought that management was "EASY". In fact the building we close on next month, is this exact scenario. This owner had no mangement experience, renovated these units as cheap as possible, and was broke within 5 years, as he could not get the rents where they needed to be, and constantly paying for maintenance as well as renting to the wrong tenant.
Property management is pretty easy for those that have the experience in dealing with tenants, and understand that you have to think like a tenant, not an investor. To toot my own horn, this is why I do exit polling, I can't think like a tenant without polling tenants, as I have not been a tenant for over 20 years.Fact. over 50% of single family homes in Memphis are rentals. So the better renter goes for a SFR the worse renters end up in apartments. No one chooses to live in apartments in these areas they are forced there by income standards and usually super bad credit criminal backrgrounds. The high cap rate apartment is a constant turn over property as people come and go. A one year tenant would be long term.—From my experience in dealing with apartments, the information seems to suggest otherwise. The tenants tend to stay longer in apartments than they do houses. I cannot speak to Memphis, and maybe this is reversed there. What I am seeing with tenants, is they are starting to understand the costs involved in renting a house, it is about 30% higher to rent a house than it is an apartment, and they are wising up and moving to apartments. Those that are choosing houses over apartmetns, are doing it solely for the fact they need the room, due to children. As far as the worse tenants being those in apartments, I have seen no data to support that here in KC. There are plenty enough bad tenants to go around, if turnover is that big of a problem….that can be directly placed in the lap of the manager. There are simply to many quality tools available to propery managers these days, that making a sound decision on a tenant is not a difficult process anymore.
Yes they can work but you need to run them like a prison literally. Duplex's not so much we buy some duplex's. but anything that is 10 untis and up and you have this sociodemographic living in units that are 20 feet apart, your talking major work.–The one key factor to remember is when you do a professional renovation, this by default, raises the rents to top of the market or just above. This will eliminate alot of the problem tenants associated with lower rent buildings, as they will never qualify, if for no other reason than their income does not meet the requirements. This is how you eliminate the very things you talk about, don't do cheap renovations, so that you can't get to the top of the market in rents, and can only rent to those questionable tenants.
As far as dealing with the multiple personailities, this is much easier to do when your dealing with tenants who actually have respectable jobs, and just don't qualify to buy a home these days (who does?). These tenants simply stay to themselves and live their lives like a responsible person should. When you ask top of the market for rent, these are the tenants you will end up with, as they are the only group that can afford it.Best play for these is to buy one fix it get it rented and then flip it to the new guy who see 's star's and thinks they will get this super high cap…. then in 2 years it will be boarded up again.—I don't know about that, you risk giving up several 100s of thuosands of dollars in equity, trying to retail flip an apartment building these days. There simply is no retail market for apartments, and investors are looking to pay 60-80% of value for buildings. If you wait for the market to turn ( and it will at least twice as fast as the residential market will) you will capitialize very nicely on your apartment building. [/quote]
Have a great day!
KC
Your a professional who works the business everyday, my comments are targeted to the Owner investor thinking they are going to buy a boarded up building in the mid west for 5k a door that the broker has written proforma on showing 15% to 20% cap rates.
Price is low enough to entice the investor that is unaware of how difficult these properties are to manage.
If someone wants to PARTNER with YOU aand you had personal FINANCIAL risk and they vetted you as a person with FINANCIAL capability and exerience then I think that is a much better play for most investors. And most investors should pay YOU a premium for this experitise and FINANCIAL risk that you take when your recommending a deal.
There is no question an art and experince level to owning multi family that is class B C D which is what i think we are talking about.
At the end of the day No property manager in US is going to personally pay for anything out of their personal pocket vis a vi the running cost of any property.
At the end of the day those buying in the single family realm on the low end cash flow rentals will deal with the ups and downs.
BuyLandOnLine wrote:Thank-you John. Like most things, if your good at something it is easier. When I was an educator and counselor working with gang effected teenagers it was easy to get up for work and easy to feel good about what I did, the work…well, it was never easy but most of my college educated friends thought the job seemed impossible let alone difficult.If you are an effective PM then you are obviously taking to heart what people say in those exit polls and care about the conditions within which they live. in the long run happier tenants make fewer problems. and that in turn reduces costs and keeps the rent flowing and makes for happy owners. It is an old fashioned idea that good business keeps everyone happy not just merely satisfied. Your buildings likely have a good reputation, on the street where the renters lurk, and among owners. Keep up the good work'
Did urban sprawl lead to urban blight and is that as large a problem as it hasbeen made out to be in KC?.unfortunatly white flight
Lawsjs,
Its is Ironic, if you think about a sub prime situation were the borrower lost the house ( of course we have to remember the sub prime borrower 99% of the time) had NO CASH into the house and just made payments.
The sub prime preditor lender ends up with the house
Sub prime borrower is now in the rental pool for the next 5 to7 years.
Sub prime lender gets taken over by the fed.
Sub prime house gets sold to investor looking for % returns that are not based on facts but performas
Some will work some will flame out and go the way of the doe doe bird.
End othe Day Some European conglomerate bought our Sub prime paper and ended up with a worthless asset.
Strange that.
jayhinrichs wrote:Nigel Kibel wrote:Some markets in the United States are still falling. For instance Phoenex has fallen at least 8% and is expected to fall another 8% in the next 12 months, Atlanta 9.8%and Los Vegas 6.4%. Now there is a view that what does down has to come back up. In some cases I disagree. For instance Detroit prices are 30% less than they were in 2000. However market like Phoenex will improve. Most of my direct experience has been in Phoenix where the markets overall have been steady since 2006. So my question is are you an investor or speculator?Nigel,
not sure I follow your saying in one sentance Pheniox is going to fall 8 to 16% in the next year. Then you say Pheniox has been steady since 06..
I pretty much can assure you that from 06 until today Pheniox market has depreciated 30% to 50% or better across the board.
Can't compare Detroit to any of the Sun Best towns or states completely different animal
Nigel Kibel wrote:Some markets in the United States are still falling. For instance Phoenex has fallen at least 8% and is expected to fall another 8% in the next 12 months, Atlanta 9.8%and Los Vegas 6.4%. Now there is a view that what does down has to come back up. In some cases I disagree. For instance Detroit prices are 30% less than they were in 2000. However market like Phoenex will improve. Most of my direct experience has been in Phoenix where the markets overall have been steady since 2006. So my question is are you an investor or speculator?Nigel,
not sure I follow your saying in one sentance Pheniox is going to fall 8 to 16% in the next year. Then you say Pheniox has been steady since 06..
I pretty much can assure you that from 06 until today Pheniox market has depreciated 30% to 50% or better across the board.
