Stay in cash and term deposits. The global scene is just getting warmed up. You’ve seen nothing yet compared to what’s coming. Watch China. It’s our Achilles heel. Growth in China is slowing as global growth slows. 2012 is predicted to see growth (China) around 7% and some see growth dropping to 3-5% from 2013 onwards.
Sydney is a service centre centric economy. It will be hammered in any financial slowdown.
Our banks hold huge amounts of debt linked to property. Their assets are not being market to market therefore their balance sheets are much weaker than they and Govt would have you believe. Some are predicting a US style toxic debt scenario here with our banks. As mortgagees transition into negative equity in greater numbers banks will increasingly come under pressure as delinquencies rise.
Australia may actually find itself in the perfect financial storm due to it being one of the last economies to falter. There’ll be no one to save us.
The time to buy will be in 3-5yrs. It’ll be cheap but don’t expect property growth rates like in the past. After the 30’s depression it took something like 19yrs for property to regain its pre-depression levels
Sorry Engelo. The original owners got suckered into a deal that just didn’t pan out. If the global balls up coming down the pike was different and you had a rising property market things may have been different (still more suckers in the pipeline).
It’s irrelevant what Nathan has paid for it. Cairns is highly dependent on tourism and that’s taking a hiding over the last 2 years. The original owners where promised something like $220/wk as a return on $115k. They were over priced from the start and now the market has turned. Purely commercial properties with hefty holding costs are worth squat in this market. This property listed for $29k. That has to tell you something when the seller dumps it for $20k and others are prepared to take a capital hit to unload into a falling market.
$20k may seem cheap for a little holiday hut on the side but when you add holding costs into the equation it’s gotta be the most expensive getaway out there. I can park up in Malta (2 bed fully furnished) for AU$130-180/wk, SE Asia for AU$130/mth. Your little gettaway in Cairns is a rip-off in comparison.
The PI market is completely different to just a few years ago. The old buy anything it’ll go up days are over. PI now requires actual investing skill. Something very few here understand.
Personally I think you have to be a mug to buy into these types of properties. The area was saturated with these units back in 07/08. They sold for around the $115k mark with a guaranteed return up to a certain date. They were dressed up to suck in investors. The scheme or rather scam is property developers build resort type complexes and sell the units off with a guaranteed income for a certain period. The investors actually pay for the whole resort but end up owning only the rooms with fairly strict contracts.
They call them studios but that’s marketing BS. They’re just hotel/motel rooms (bed, bog & bath). It’s not practical to manage them yourself. Why would you bother for a few dollars a week anyway that’s if they’re actually turning a profit which I doubt.
I think young Nathan will soon learn why this property is so cheap. It looses money. There’s 20+ of these within spitting distance of each other and 13 alone in the same street. RE in this suburb turns over at a fairly hectic rate by the looks of things.
Nathan I can’t understand why a multimillion dollar guru like yourself bothers with penny ante stuff like this
More on the Coming Wave of Foreclosures
Posted: 17 Sep 2011 02:30 PM PDT
In response to Mortgage Default Notices Surge 33% Nationwide, 55% in California, 200% by Bank of America; Corresponding Jump in Foreclosures Will Follow Patrick Pulatie at LFI Analytics writes ….
Hello Mish,
This is what was expected, and the timing is just about right.
Apr 13, 2011, the OCC ordered the Consent Decree affecting 16 entities, banks, servicers, & MERS. The lenders were given 60 days to present plans how meet the demands of the Decree, and 60 days to actually implement the plans, which would have been Aug 13.
The Decree covered the foreclosure process, and specifically addressed MERS and Certifying Officers. The Decree detailed what need to be done to ensure that any MERS signing and foreclosure was lawful in the particular state where the property was located.
Combine this with the MERS “order” to foreclose in the lenders name, decisions like Gomes v Countrywide in the CA Appeals Court, and now the 9th Circuit ruling supporting MERS, the lenders can begin to foreclose again with relative ease, as long as they follow the Decree.
Likely, much of the rest of the country will experience similar actions, especially since the lid has been lifted in New Jersey.
Most of the homeowner lawsuits to come will be based upon issues with loan modifications. There will still be some based upon foreclosure processes, but these will likely be on pre Aug 13, initiations. Of course, for large numbers of attorneys, they will still file actions based upon the old allegations, but such attorneys only care about the income stream.
There are 1.9 million homes over 90 days late in the US. 6.9 million are delinquent. So, we can see what is coming.
Also, I am now noticing a new trend. Homeowners who received legitimate HAMP loans in 2010 and were able to afford repayment are now re-defaulting again. This time, like before, the defaults are caused by substantial loss of income due to the economy. I expect to see much more coming.
Patrick Pulatie
One of the key rulings that will increase the rate of foreclosures comes from the 9th Circuit Court. Please see 9th Circuit Court Ruling Legitimizes MERS for details .
Addendum:
Pulatie pinged me with this comment
Calvo v HSBC
This case in California just clarified that there is no need for any Assignment of the Deed of Trust to be recorded prior to foreclosure.
Statute CCC 2932.5 is put to rest.
It essentially nails the coffin lid closed on foreclosure defenses that attorneys have been using, when combined with the 9th Circuit ruling and Gomes v Countrywide.
1 in 4 children require food stamps and 43 million ppl now live below the official poverty line. The US is a country where the lower socio-economic classes are facing huge pressures from inflation, deflation and increasing unemployment. The high rent returns may not be as sustainable on dirt cheap properties over the next few years as some may think.
Hi Jack, No bullshit, but I seriously admire your view on topics and attention to detail. Its very blunt and brutal but for some reason I like it. Keep em coming as its always an interesting read.
Regards, Engelo
And I thought I was being concise and to the point.
I don’t join forums to make friends so I can therefore be more forthcoming than others here who are looking to establish a business reputation and network for their own (and mutual) benefit. As I have no pecuniary interest in anything I can afford a certain level of directness.
My view has evolved after failures large and small. As they say you learn little when you succeed but much when you fail. Detail is often lacking and supporting arguments are almost non existent. My objective is not to simply contribute to the background noise nor cheer more lemmings over the cliff but hopefully motivate those on the self perpetuating BS merry-go-round to get off and explore different perspectives.
Hopefully it wiil help others become better and more informed investors.
By the way Engelo I do admire your motivation and savings discipline for one so young. I wish my lads had half your get up and go.
PS – i think your right about robert K – read over some chapters over the weekend and alot of things didnt make sense lol
Not sure if you’ve seen John Reed’s site. He critiques the so called guru’s. RK’s there with an extensive analysis that’ll explain why you’re struggling with some of his waffle.
Invest a portion of your money in books, magazines, seminars etc… on property and keep reading this forum. I was once told make your passion an obsession and you will never need to work again.
Engelo
I find obsessive’s tend to loose their subjectivity and impartiality. Obsessive’s continue to work at something regardless of need which then begs the question if financial independence is a target to achieve the goal of not needing to work so one can enjoy some kind of utopian existence then what is the point. Some argue that financial independence enables choice as if one has little choice in the first place. Obsessive’s can be hypersensitive to criticism as well .. eh Engelo
I’ve known lots of financially independent people over my lifetime. I only know of one who has been truely happy. He may have found happiness because he never sought financial independence in the first place.
What about shares/? they are still low and returning good yields. banks shares are returning aroun 7% before franking credits. lots of up potential
Sorry Terry but I have to disagree.
Bank stocks are trending down.
ANZ Bank [ASX: ANZ] is down 2.56%…
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank [ASX: BEN] is down 3.01%…
Bank of Queensland [ASX: BOQ] is down 3.42%…
Commonwealth Bank [ASX: CBA] is down 3.44%…
Macquarie [ASX: MQG] is down 3.91%…
National Australia Bank [ASX: NAB] is down 2.87%…
..and Westpac [ASX: WBC] is down 3.23%.
Quote:
This morning, Bloomberg News reports:
“Investors are valuing European banks at levels not seen since the depths of the credit crunch that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ) as concern over a Greek default and debt contagion escalates.”
And yesterday, the Wall Street Journal wrote:
“France’s largest publicly traded banks face another week of turbulence as Moody’s Investors Service may cut the credit ratings of BNP Paribas SA, Société Générale SA and Crédit Agricole SA because of their exposure to Greek sovereign debt…”
Meanwhile, across the pond, the Financial Times notes:
“Britain’s banks will face an annual bill of as much as £6bn ($9.5bn) to comply with the reforms of the Vickers Commission, according to the panel’s final report…”
And in Australia, our [cough] safe banks still need multi-trillion-dollar taxpayer support. Eric Johnston in the Age writes:
“Global market uncertainty has prompted the Gillard government to extend into next year its promise to stand behind bank and credit union deposits worth up to $1 million, before winding back the insurance scheme that has been in place since the global financial crisis…
“A new permanent cap for the Financial Claims Scheme of $250,000 per person per financial institution will be introduced from February 1 next year. The $1 million cap had been scheduled to expire in October.”
The mainstream argues Australia’s banks are safe. We ask: if that’s true, why do they need taxpayer support?
The mainstream replies it’s because of global banking fears rather than Australia-specific problems. We say, rubbish. It’s because the entire global banking system is built on a business model that’s inherently insolvent… and that includes Australia’s banks.
Still, most mainstream analysts will tell you about Aussie banks’ great yield and captive customer base.But what they won’t tell you is that banking stocks are the ultimate leveraged stock play.
The only way the banks can make money is to issue more loans.
If the banks stop expanding their balance sheets, the result is banking death. As you’ve seen in North America, it doesn’t take much for profits to disappear… or to make depositors want their cash… or to force governments into engineering taxpayer funded bailouts.
As we look at it, bank balance sheets are as bad as GM’s from seven years ago. GM made its crappy profit buying lots of metal, rubber and plastic and then expensively fashioning them into a car it could sell for a small profit.
Super-leveraged paper-thin profits
Australia’s banks (all banks in fact) make their slim profits by convincing ever greater numbers of people to take out ever bigger loans.
Source: Money Morning newsletter 12 Sep 11
If you want good returns and a safe place go and buy some silver and or gold. The gains in silver will outstrip gold. Silvers up 82% this year, gold 33% and they have a lot further to go.
Jack that is the whole point of investing in property you borrow money the real value of your loan goes down more the higher inflation goes. So the amount you have to pay for the house goes down an average of 5.47% each year, if your net CG is 3.23%, you have an increase of 8.5% in your assets real networth plus perhaps 6% yeild, plus your tax deductions. Adds up to over 15% gain . Would you rather put money in the bank that you have paid tax on ,than pay tax on the interest received, if inflatioin 5.5% your going back wards quickly.
The 15% is not real. You’ve just added inflation back in and taken a gross operating profit for your model. Strip out costs, taxes and the erosion of buying power through inflation and your underwater in most cases. You need CG’s above trend and rental returns in excess of 10% to beat costs. Can work in the short term but CG gains fluctuate over time as do rental yields. Picking your timing is crucial to get it right but many strategies I see rely on Buy Hold and Hope. It’s no longer a viable strategy in todays market.
If you borrowed $1000 @ 6.5% over ten years it would cost you $319. $1000 now equals $681.
If we look at the buying power of $1000 and depreciate over 10yrs by an average inflation rate of 3% it could only buy $736 equivalent
Net real comparative figure is $417. You need a compound growth rate of around 8.8% to maintain equilibrium. That’s near trend. You now need operating cash flows to exceed operating cost to make a real profit.
That’s a fairly baseline model but it illustrates how erosive inflation can be at relatively modest levels. True inflation tends to be from 1 – 2% higher than doctored government figures.
Jackflash – what is your property investing strategy if it is not to own multiple properteis?
I’m also in the Pilbara. I’m afraid I don’t share your enthusiasm over the long term outlook for mining. Mining itself will continue however the high demand for workers is about expansion and construction not mining itself which employs very few ppl of which only a tiny percentage actually live locally up here.
It looks like China is coming to the end of a frenetic 2 decade expansion. It has major structural problems within its economy that need addressing over the next few years. Couple that with a global slowdown and China will be forced to slow down to a more sustainable growth rate. For a clearer picture of China you should read;
*BRICS is an international political organisation of leading emerging market countries consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, the People’s Republic of China and South Africa.
I don’t invest in property anymore although I retain an interest in the sector. If taking on property investing you need to describe it as a business and it treat it so. When I try to build a business case around property it always throws up the following problems;
– high entry/transaction costs
– high holding costs
– high exit costs
– difficult to exit market and time frames can be unpredictable
– huge amounts of leverage required to grow portfolio’s
– little to no liquidity
– income potential is difficult to maintain above break even
– average yields are relatively low (3 – 6%)
– CG is unpredictable from year to year and long term ‘real’ growth is often negative after various taxes
– requires a high degree of monitoring to produce the most efficient yields
– govt policy and interference is a constant problem
– market risk going forward is now extremely high.
I prefer to invest in small businesses usually my own. A new business I started last year for $40k down returns around $200k+ for 25 – 30hrs/wk. I can stop and start this business as I require so holidays and breaks are at my whim. It may disappear if mining contracts but I’ve hedged with defensive shares.
I invest surplus income via the business into shares and precious metals. The reason I do this is the exact opposite to the reasons I don’t invest in property any more. I consider net returns of less than 25%/yr before tax as poor. I target returns in the 35% – 50%+ range.
I’m in the process of going defensive now as the approaching correction nears. Six months ago I would have said we have 2 years. Now I’m wondering if we’ll make it to Xmas before the melt down begins.
The figures below taken with the inflation figures show how much heavy lifting inflation does in pushing CG over time.
1960 – 1972 = 12 years
1972 – 1975 = 3 years
1975 – 1983 = 8 years
1983 – 1988 = 5 years
1988 – 2001 = 13 years
The average inflation rate for the period 1960 – 2006 was 5.47%. A net CG average of only 3.23%. When you include the various taxes associated with property the actual real return will be negative.
The problem with many of the figures I see bandied about don’t take into account inflation and its affect on buying power. A dollar today that turns into 100 in 10yrs is of little consequence if it buys the same or less.
I think these “made me think about finances” comments are inarticulate at best and dishonest at worst. What is really going on is a lot of people are schlepping along doing a half-ass job of managing the financial aspects of their lives. Rich Dad Poor Dad slaps them up side the head and tells them to clean up their acts. That’s good, but the book goes on to <moderator: delete personal comment> make getting rich seem much easier than it really is and make education sound much less valuable than it really is. Basically, people want to get rich quick without effort or risk. <delete>
John Reed This guy looks at all that is dodgey and exposes a few truths. He also sorts out the wheat from the chaf for the wannabe investor. He seems pretty straight down the middle even bagging a close friend in the game and classifying him as a "Do Not Recommend" He doesn't mince words.
The US again is near out of money with less than $45B supposedly left in the public purse. More debt ceiling madness coming and more debt.
Wonder of all wonders. The Senate approved another $500B without so much as a wimper. That’ll last about 4-5mths apparently. $100B is earmarked for the Afghan war.
Some news from The 5 Minute Forcaste;
“Banks in Kentucky are now lending as of about eight weeks ago,” writes a reader cluing us in to a potential shift in money flows. “Some at 0% down. Several at 3.5% down. Low rates, fairly low origination fees.
“My guess is the federal bank examiner folks were directed to lean on their banks to get loans moving or they were going to make life miserable for them.
“If you look at the new job postings on a service like Topix in my area you see a large percentage of the very recent postings are for the Army National Guard, the Veterans Administration Hospital and other government or government-supported agencies. They did not need anyone two months ago, but now they need a lot of new employees.”
“Seems like the current administration has commanded its minions to create jobs so unemployment will go down. It does not matter whether they need new people or not. It does not matter whether the new loans meet the bank’s normal lending criteria or not. Obama needs the reported numbers to improve if he hopes to be re-elected.”
Looks like the political shenanigans are are off to a good start for the big election ….. it’s a mad mad world for sure!!!
Obama’s new Jobs Act solution is nothing more than a pre election stunt. Expect to see much more of this rubbish leading up the long and painful US Presidential Elections. There is zero chance this will pass. Instead it will be used by both sides to batter each other politically.
The US again is near out of money with less than $45B supposedly left in the public purse. More debt ceiling madness coming and more debt.
US dollar loosing its safe haven status due to political incompetence and no real change in the negative directing of economic indicators.
Nationally the US is bankrupt. Individual States are in an even worse condition with no ability to print their own money. On average several States declare bankruptcy every year. States run some of the dodgiest books in the country.
Shawn Tully The housing crash not yet realized its full impact on budgets in the most vulnerable states. It’s the banking crisis all over again – and it’s time to stop ignoring it.
China is running a financial war against the US. Has been for years. It resembles something like the Cold War that eventually bankrupted Russia. This time the US is on the receiving end. China and Russia are manipulating pressure behind the scenes to eventually end the US’s strangle hold on the reserve currency. Expect to see them loose this reserve status within the next decade. When this happens the US will effectively become a 3rd world country.
International investors holding US assets are at risk of substantial losses due to currency debasement. Short term fluctuations are likely in the short term as global volatility is exacerbated with a breakout in currency wars. Swiss and now the Japanese have promised aggressive currency debasement in the last few days.
A tough market to invest in. Even tougher to turn a profit.
Its how people manage a sisuation not how they got there money.
Trump never managed things very well as is evident from his many run ins with the bankruptcy courts. He was invariably saved by advisers and his large stake in each game. He lost much of his share in projects as forfeiture to stave off bankruptcy.
Packer also is a hopeless manager. Anyone who takes a considerable fortune and literally halves it in a few years is not someone anyone should follow as any sort of example whatsoever. He’s not a patch on his old man.
Neither would have ever have amounted to anything if they’d had to make their fortunes from scratch like their parents.
johann22 wrote:
And so what if he has only made 9 millon from his book not 50million? Not bad for just a sales man
He’s actually a fraudster. Most fraudsters are good salesmen. Prerequisite to be a successful fraudster I guess. Fraud is one of the more insidious of crimes in my book simply because of the sheer numbers of lives it can destroy.
It sounds more like an acquisition AND development plan.
You need to know the companies market focus and business plan for the next however many years they’re planning out to. If you decide to head in a direction contrary to Co’s current direction then you would have to make a corporate business case for a change of direction.
When pitching to BoD’s find out who they are their history, personalities, preferences etc. Along with their business plan you can design a proposal that aligns with their current philosophy and thinking.
It seems their risk appetite has diminished somewhat and any future projects would have to be attractive to potential partners to spread that risk. Your prop is going to have to consider how to make it attractive to potential investors. What type of investor would this be, retail, wholesale etc? Props are usually designed around the type of investment vehicle used ie; partnerships, new company, property trust and so on. You’ll need to give consideration to this. (Not my field)
That aside I would tend to look at the area over all and identify what amenities it is short of. If it already has plenty of retail and professional service in the area it’s going to be a hard sell. You want to consider what companies are currently successful in the current market. EG JB Hi-Fi are performing well, some luxury brands are doing well.
So you would develop a menu of target businesses and possibly develop a proposal around them. This may require a multi dimensional proposal to account for rejections by some. In other words flexible.
If you do go with the retail option and do select target companies actually go and see them to discuss the potential with them. Many of these companies will only be too glad to help budding students with projects like yours.
Develop these skills and you’re halfway there At least you’ll know who to listen to and who to avoid. A few here I could name but I’ll leave you to figure them out. Good practice.