Forum Replies Created
- foundation wrote:I'm sure you have me confused with somebody else. I'm a (multiple) property owner, not a renter.
[cowboy2]But of course you are.
foundation wrote:Because I fully expect a decade of deflation, ala Japan. And because of this, I have structured my investments to deal with this as the most likely outcome, but also to be flexible, liquid and able to respond to completely the opposite scenario. I expect property prices to fall and fall hard over coming years.That would suggest that you either are not telling the truth in one of the above statements or you are not very bright . Since I don't know you personally I'll leave it up to you to decide which.
foundation wrote:Huh? This only takes interest rates back to where they were last November.Where is the latest cut taking us back to, 5 years ago ? Wait another month and it 'll be back to 7 years ago.
How is your landlord doing, could you say hello from me and ask him if he wouldn't mind passing that rate cut to you so your rent go back to what you were paying 5 years ago. I'm sure he'll agree to it.Quote:So I'm not excited by the rate reduction.No , I guess you wouldn't be. Probably even less excited next month after another rate cut if your TD expires soon and goes from 8.5% down to 4%.
It may affect prices for a year or two until we get slugged with the new taxes. After that then the fraudsters will be exposed and all this talk of global warming BS and sea rises BS will become as extinct as the dinosaurs. – with the exception of GW taxes which will have to stay because the government needs more revenue to support an aging population.
The scaremongering does offer some opportunity to buy waterfront properties cheaper and I wouldn't hesitate to use the GW BS to negotiate the price downwards, at least until the honest scientists put out more evidence that GW is a con job..Quote:Lorne Gunter: Thirty years of warmer temperatures go poofIn early September, I began noticing a string of news stories about scientists rejecting the orthodoxy on global warming. Actually, it was more like a string of guest columns and long letters to the editor since it is hard for skeptical scientists to get published in the cabal of climate journals now controlled by the Great Sanhedrin of the environmental movement.
Still, the number of climate change skeptics is growing rapidly. Because a funny thing is happening to global temperatures — they're going down, not up.
On the same day (Sept. 5) that areas of southern Brazil were recording one of their latest winter snowfalls ever and entering what turned out to be their coldest September in a century, Brazilian meteorologist Eugenio Hackbart explained that extreme cold or snowfall events in his country have always been tied to "a negative PDO" or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Positive PDOs — El Ninos — produce above-average temperatures in South America while negative ones — La Ninas — produce below average ones.
Dr. Hackbart also pointed out that periods of solar inactivity known as "solar minimums" magnify cold spells on his continent. So, given that August was the first month since 1913 in which no sunspot activity was recorded — none — and during which solar winds were at a 50-year low, he was not surprised that Brazilians were suffering (for them) a brutal cold snap. "This is no coincidence," he said as he scoffed at the notion that manmade carbon emissions had more impact than the sun and oceans on global climate.
Also in September, American Craig Loehle, a scientist who conducts computer modelling on global climate change, confirmed his earlier findings that the so-called Medieval Warm Period (MWP) of about 1,000 years ago did in fact exist and was even warmer than 20th-century temperatures.
Prior to the past decade of climate hysteria and Kyoto hype, the MWP was a given in the scientific community. Several hundred studies of tree rings, lake and ocean floor sediment, ice cores and early written records of weather — even harvest totals and censuses –confirmed that the period from 800 AD to 1300 AD was unusually warm, particularly in Northern Europe.
But in order to prove the climate scaremongers' claim that 20th-century warming had been dangerous and unprecedented — a result of human, not natural factors — the MWP had to be made to disappear. So studies such as Michael Mann's "hockey stick," in which there is no MWP and global temperatures rise gradually until they jump up in the industrial age, have been adopted by the UN as proof that recent climate change necessitates a reordering of human economies and societies.
Dr. Loehle's work helps end this deception.
Don Easterbrook, a geologist at Western Washington University, says, "It's practically a slam dunk that we are in for about 30 years of global cooling," as the sun enters a particularly inactive phase. His examination of warming and cooling trends over the past four centuries shows an "almost exact correlation" between climate fluctuations and solar energy received on Earth, while showing almost "no correlation at all with CO2."
An analytical chemist who works in spectroscopy and atmospheric sensing, Michael J. Myers of Hilton Head, S. C., declared, "Man-made global warming is junk science," explaining that worldwide manmade CO2 emission each year "equals about 0.0168% of the atmosphere's CO2 concentration … This results in a 0.00064% increase in the absorption of the sun's radiation. This is an insignificantly small number."
Other international scientists have called the manmade warming theory a "hoax," a "fraud" and simply "not credible."
While not stooping to such name-calling, weather-satellite scientists David Douglass of the University of Rochester and John Christy of the University of Alabama at Huntsville nonetheless dealt the True Believers a devastating blow last month.
For nearly 30 years, Professor Christy has been in charge of NASA's eight weather satellites that take more than 300,000 temperature readings daily around the globe. In a paper co-written with Dr. Douglass, he concludes that while manmade emissions may be having a slight impact, "variations in global temperatures since 1978 … cannot be attributed to carbon dioxide."
Moreover, while the chart below was not produced by Douglass and Christy, it was produced using their data and it clearly shows that in the past four years — the period corresponding to reduced solar activity — all of the rise in global temperatures since 1979 has disappeared.
It may be that more global warming doubters are surfacing because there just isn't any global warming.
National Post
wallyt99 wrote:Man you guys sure are naive about climate change.Two links from respected sources that you should read.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/04/24/eaarctic124.xml
http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s866600.htmOk, so I've read in the telegraph that some scientists are a little bit embarrassed by falling sea levels
Quote:In the early 1990s, scientists forecast that the coral atoll of nine islands – which is only 12ft above sea level at its highest point – would vanish within decades because the sea was rising by up to 1.5in a year. However, a new study has found that sea levels have since fallen by nearly 2.5in and experts at Tuvalu's Meteorological Service in Funafuti, the islands' administrative centre, said this meant they would survive for another 100 years.
They said similar sea level falls had been recorded in Nauru and the Solomon Islands, which were also considered to be under threat. The release of the data from Tuvalu, formerly part of the Gilbert and Ellice Islands, will renew scientific debate about climate change and its impact on ocean levels. The island's scientists admitted they were surprised and "a little embarrassed" by the change, which they blame on unusual weather conditions caused by El Niño in 1997.
Hilia Vavae, the Meteorological Service's director, said: "This is certainly a bit of a shock for us because we have been experiencing the effect of rising oceans for a long time." Although their country has been saved from imminent engulfment, not all islanders are happy about the change in Tuvalu's fortunes. Residents who once worried about their homes being flooded are now complaining that the lower tides are disrupting their fishing expeditions, making it difficult to moor their boats and navigate low-lying reefs.
and in the abc that some islands are sinking,
Quote:http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s866600.htm
The area is at a junction of the Australasian-Indian tectonic plates, which produce a large number of major earthquakes. Some experts believe the quakes are responsible for the sinking of some islands and the rising of others.also read this interview
Quote:http://www.iceagenow.com/Rising_Sea_Level_Claim_a_Total_Fraud.htm
You have Vanuatu, and also in the Pacific, north of New Zealand and Fiji— there is the island Tegua. They said they had to evacuate it, because the sea level was rising. But again, you look at the tide-gauge record: There is absolutely no signal that the sea level is rising. If anything, you could say that maybe the tide is lowering a little bit, but absolutely no rising.and found this funny quote here,
"Course if Einstein said Gore was wrong it would be because Einstein was in the pockets of big oil."
http://marginalizedactiondinosaur.net/?p=648Now what ?
The facts are clear, there is no evidence whatsoever and its all a big scam to increase taxes and keep the research money coming. Now that we're starting to get taxed for CO2 emissions the "research " is now moving towards finding new causes of global warming .
Apparently plants and cows are the real culprits but they have refused to pay any taxes.http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2006/jan/12/environment.climatechange
Quote:They have long been thought of as the antidote to harmful greenhouse gases, sufferers of, rather than contributors to, the effects of global warming. But in a startling discovery, scientists have realised that plants are part of the problem.
According to a study published today, living plants may emit almost a third of the methane entering the Earth's atmosphere.
The result has come as a shock to climate scientists. "This is a genuinely remarkable result," said Richard Betts of the climate change monitoring organisation the Hadley Centre. "It adds an important new piece of understanding of how plants interact with the climate."
Methane is second only to carbon dioxide in contributing to the greenhouse effect. "For a given mass of methane, it is a stronger greenhouse gas, but the reason it is of less concern is that there's less of it in the atmosphere," said Dr Betts.
But the concentration of methane in the atmosphere has almost tripled in the last 150 years, mainly through human-influenced so-called biogenic sources such as the rise in rice cultivation or numbers of flatulent ruminating animals. According to previous estimates, these sources make up two-thirds of the 600m tonnes worldwide annual methane production.
ummester wrote:Harb, where have you been?Looking at buying some more houses , where else ? Thanks to that stupid FHOG increase one of my offers got knocked back and the place sold to a FHB for full asking price.
I recon there is sweet FA we can do about it now, it is a natural cycle, like property devaluations:)
Yep , been happening since the beginning long before we got down from the trees so it couldn't be our fault.
And I know for a fact that the rising sea level story is a crock of shit, don't need no satellites either. I've got a couple of S/steel rods into the retaining wall to measure tide levels and its been the same for 20 years now. Unless the concrete wall is expanding at the same rate with the sea level.BreakEven wrote:Scampy boy, your at it again eh……?? I see your name all over the web, scrawling the same diatribe…
I gotta admit, you are a crack-up!! Im even starting to like you…!!!!Same here, after a while he just seems to grow on you doesn't he.
After all the bad luck he's been having recently with his silver bars prices falling through the floor and his high yield savings in some Iceland bank in jeopardy he deserves a break and maybe his luck is about to change and get that immigration visa he's been dreaming about.ummester wrote:You never know – rates may still rise. We may even see a decoupling of banks from each other, in some ways we already have. Why is Combanks fixed term more than a whole percent greater than Westpaks? Imagine if, within the next couple of years, banks start charging interest based on thier security ratings…Yeah sure, they may rise and the banks decoupling from each other just like they decoupled from RBA .
I can just see in a few months when cash is flooding the streets, rates falling at 5% or lower and and no takers the bank manager pimping on the sidewalk trying to drag passers-by in his bank to sign them up for a new loan.
How many takers for the fixed product do you think Commbank has these days ? My guess is not many at all. They'll pass it on soon enough and before the RBA drops it again , that way they may still get some poor sucker hooked on the higher rate yet don't look like greedy bastards when the next cuts arrive.stu_macca wrote:Must admit that one confused me Scamp. Just looks like a straight 30% margin gain. Reduced demand for steel caused by a recession could be a worry though (lots of coal gets used in making steel).A reduced demand is still better then NO demand. That 30% gain will give as a cushion against the fall in demand and even allow us to sell at a lower price and gain a bigger share of the market.
Quote:Rents are now $1500/week. Similar houses selling for $600K. On the market for about 5 seconds (so you need a buyers agent).It is a bit of a gamble in that if the mining stopped a $600k house could become $150K overnight and rents would go down to $150/week. If the resources are in the ground even if the mine shut downs temporarily, if you can afford to hold on long enough things would eventually pick up again when the mine reopened . On the other hand the mining could continue for 20 years or more and you'd be laughing all the way to the bank. A good example is Karratha & Port Hedland, been going strong for decades on the back of resources and it will continue to do so for decades to come.
Since you've already bought it its a bit late to be nervous, just hold on to your hat and enjoy the ride.marcadrian78 wrote:We bought our 4 bedroom house in Sydney in Oct 2005 for $490k with interest rates around 7%.We cannot currently sell it for more than $460k.
This is a nice house in a cul de sac located about 20km from the CBD. Close to a train line, low crime area and lots of schools around etc.
Sounds perfect so may I ask why sell it ? If you can't handle the higher rates then you only have yourself to blame. If there are other reasons like job transfer, etc. and can hold on to it then why not rent it out for a few years and get some tax benefits?
Quote:Someone made a comment about macro/micro markets. It is true. You can still make a buck in property if you are in the right time/place. However, that window of oppurtunity for time/place is currently very very small. It will get larger as time goes on but you have to wait for a number of things to happen first:1. Interest rates need to drop further
I think it will and I'm guessing a likely fall of another 2% over the next year or two.
Quote:2. Economy needs to be proven to be sound, not just talk from politiciansFrom an investment point buying in Sydney in 2005 was a bad move and unlike the mining states Sydney doesn't have much going for it. A low AUD will help it recover but it will probably take a few years.
Quote:3. Credit needs to flowIt may take a year or so but sooner or later it will happen. All the money being pumped into the markets with little or no results will have to go somewhere when the dust (and nerves) settles.
Quote:4. A *severe* housing crisis needs to occur. This has not happened yet – you can still rent for a decent price, and you can still shack up with mum and dad who probably live in a 4 bedroom house with plenty of space anyway.Again, just a matter of time. There is plenty of stock available now so why build when you can rent or buy ready built cheaper ? When we do run out of stock then we'll want new homes built yesterday AND at last years prices but guess what , it will take 6-12 months to build and by then material costs would have risen 50% or more. Just check out the price rises on building a new home, right now nobody cares that building costs went up 10% or 20% over the past few months or that builders go bust because the profit margins are low. When that time comes panic of "missing out" will set , prices will go silly and "Hot property" will once again return to TV to show us how to make a killing in the property market .
Quote:5. People need to forget how much money they lost post 97-03 boomLost $ post 2003 ? Maybe if you bought in a wrong place, like Sydney.
Brisbane and Perth only started to warm up in 2003 and had solid gains for another 3 years or 4 years in Adelaide's case. They have now corrected but it won't take much to get them going again, unlike NSW and VIC who are experiencing negative growth the mining states will still continue to grow at 5%+ even with China slowing down.Quote:When is all that going to happen? It is certainly not going to happen while share markets are tanking and/or going sideways, which will be at LEAST for the next 12 months.Actually with share markets tanking and/or going sideways you'll probably have more investors thinking of getting into property if they can afford it and didn't get badly burnt in the resources and banking stocks.
At LEAST 12 months before you're going back in ? Yes that will work for me.Quote:I dare you to disagree.Double dare. I think its a good time to get into both property and the stock market IF you do your homework and can afford it.
And yes, I did put my money where my mouth is and went on a buying spree. I bought some properties and shares this month and am looking to grab some more before the month is over. Guess what, I plan to hold them for at LEAST 12 months ( 50% CGT rule ) before disposing of them. I'll end up selling them back to the people who panicked and to the people who are now waiting for the markets to recover before jumping in. By mid January we'll be able to see if I was right or was I right, as they say – time will tell.superhoops wrote:Scamp wrote:attrill wrote:I have 2 loans fixed at 6.65% until 2009 when they will revert to the prevailing rate. In the last few years the rents have risen to a point where these properties will still be cash neutral. This is more a case of luck than astute financial planning.Many are in your situation Attrill. Buyers know this, and are now waiting for people like you to tumble over, and foreclosures some on the market for 50% of today's price. It's what is happening in USA now, it will happen in Australia too. January 2009 will give more insight in the real trouble people are in. But if your bank devaluates your house by 20%, and you are negatively geared, then you will have to borrow at the variable interest rates of 10% to 11% ( if not higher by that time, there's already talks about raising interest again this month ).
Why don't you fix your interest now for 5 years ? At least you won't be one of the foreclosed ones.
Closing your eyes or putting your head in the sand won't let the problem go away : act now, fix your interest at 8.75% ( yes , you can still do this with your bank ) before you HAVE to do anything.
Interest at this moment will only go up , because Rudd wants to fight off inflation at all costs ( that's what he says anyway ) Just read the news, and make up your mind. I would not be surprised to see another 0.25 interest increase in June and one more in September.
Remember the 17% interest rates ?… they're coming back.
Glad I didn't take this persons advice about fixing interest rates at 8.75%.
LOL. That the same person who after our 1% rate cut was advising people on another forum to move their savings into a high yield saving account with banks in Iceland. That was the day before they went belly up.
I'm wondering if he followed his own advice and if so then what does he think of his government's effort (or lack of it) to recover his savings.
Quote:http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-10/09/content_10171484.htm
Dutch gov't refuses to guarantee Dutch savings at Icelandic bankBRUSSELS, Oct. 9 (Xinhua) — The 120,000 Dutch savers who have deposits with the troubled Icelandic bank of Icesave are facing uncertainty as the Dutch government has expressed reluctance to guarantee their savings.
Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos said Wednesday that the government does not want to fully guarantee the savings of Dutch consumers with Icesave if Iceland fails to meet its obligations under the deposit guarantee scheme, Dutch daily De Volkskrant reported Thursday.
"If I advance the money there is no longer any pressure on Iceland's government," he was quoted as saying during a Dutch parliamentary debate on the nationalization of Fortis and ABN Amro.
Internet savings bank Icesave stopped to honor its accounts on Monday and its parent company Landsbanki, the second biggest bank in Iceland, was put under government protection on Tuesday. Dutch savers have a combined 1.7 billion euros (2.3 billion U.S. dollars) of deposits with the bank.
The British government said Wednesday it would compensate all British savers for their deposits with Icesave if the Icelandic government fails to do so. About 300,000 British customers have some 4 billion pounds (6.9 billion dollars) deposited in Icesave accounts.
Bos said Wednesday that the Dutch government is doing everything it can to get the Icelandic authorities to meet their obligations to Dutch people. "They signed a contract with us," Bos said, insisting that the Icelandic government must fulfill its responsibilities.
"We have not yet managed to get assurance from Iceland that it will take responsibility. But we are applying pressure through legal and diplomatic channels and through the supervisory bodies for the financial services sector," Bos told Dutch lawmakers.
He said taking over the Dutch savings in Icesave would be a serious option.
Icesave's Dutch office has been closed and the 30 staff members sent home, Dutch paper Financieele Dagblad reported Thursday. The Dutch central bank has been flooded with calls from worried savers and its website has been extremely busy.
jen81 wrote:None of us know how the property market is going to look in 5 years time. I think the thing to remember is that property is a long term investment. Gone are the days of buying something and selling it for a huge profit in a year or 2 years time.??? We can't see into the crystal ball 5 years ahead but can see 2 years ?
While its unlikely to have another boom its still a possibility, all you need is for a number of overseas property investors to decide to take advantage of the large oversupply of existing properties, rental shortage and the fall in AUD and the whole thing could take off again.Quote:Now anyone who owns property is going to have to hold onto it to give it time to recover its value. I guess this may mean that decent properties for sale might shrivel up?Yep, it looks that way. There is plenty of good value out there if you look hard enough. I look at the realistic price of land and add the cost of building a house plus landscape it and if the property is selling well below replacement value then its worth investigating further. There are a lot of house selling for just above the land value which makes it pointless building a new house to use in 12 months time if you can buy one and use it right now for a lot less.
ummester wrote:I understand some of your opposition to Scamp over-zealous doom and glooming but how can one derive FACT in a world where finacial gain is fueled largely by spin and specualation.You can't really blame Scamp for all that doom and gloom, after all he is just regurgitating the stuff that he reads on the other forum without realizing that he is not getting a balance view in there.
Quote:In the same way that REAs boosting the market, die hard property optimists like harb and even balanced views like yours are still speculation,I like that, a die hard property optimist.
That's funny because up to 6 months ago the wife would call me a stock market junkie.Quote:True, we don't know how it is all going to play out but most would have to admit that what the financial world is up against now is worse than any of us have seen in our adult lifetimes.Life is good, there is nothing you can do about the situation in the financial world so why worry about nothing and give yourself an ulcer ?
