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  • Profile photo of harbharb
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    gmh454 wrote:
    Harb, unemployment would have been higher than it is now, actual figures, could not say.

    If unemployment rates above 7.5% during 2001 didn't prevent a boom how is now moving up to the same numbers going to cause a crash ?
    If you are correct and we only go up to 7.5% by the end of this year  then I think the worst IS over.  Not only that but unlike 2001 this time the IR is going down and the government probably doesn't mind a property mini boom to get the economy moving again.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    gmh454 wrote:

    Between 01/01/09 and 31/03/09 around 1% minimun of the workforce will lose their jobs, and that will only lift unemployment to 5.5% so at sometime later in the year around another 2 people in the hundred will also go, plus the contarctors will wind down, and the casuals phones will stop ringing.

    Any idea of what the unemployment rate was at the beginning of the last boom ?

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    mattman wrote:
    I have engaged an architect through archicentre who advised that the construction costs for a house in Maroubra was around $2,000/sqm. The architect was proposing a 200sqm replacement house. After the architect left I did the maths and found that this equated to a constuction cost of $400,000!!!!!

    This doesn't include any consultation fee's, services, finishes etc…. This only covers the cost of building the house. Is this correct????

    If so we definately cannot afford it.

    I was hoping to build a basic 3 bedroom house with a garage to lock up stage for around $250,000.

    Am I pissing in the wind here or is this guy ripping me off.

    Please Help

    for something basic try something off the plan then add up to $20,000 extra for heavier footing if required..

    Start with looking at  some large budget builders like avjennings and see where are their display centers , you'll find more builders next to them to chose from. 

    http://www.avjennings.com.au/NSW/HomesToBuild/SingleStorey.aspx

    http://www.avjennings.com.au/NSW/HomesToBuild/DoubleStorey.aspx

    If you want to stay below $250,000 forget the architects and go mass produced, just find a plan that requires no changes or the least amount of changes. Remember that for them changes and extras is where the biggest profit comes from. ;-)

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Merry Christmas C2, maybe they are all out enjoying the holidays.  

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    AnthonyJF wrote:
    For example in one area a 4Br/2bathroom/2 garage established home is for sale around $550,000 but there are a few house and land packages that are available for around $440,000 to $500,000. Therefore could you reasonably assume once the building of the home is completed it would then be valued at around $550,000??

    First, the established  house for sale at  $550K could probably be yours for $530K or less. The H&L package probably needs another $50K-$100K before is comparable to the established house. Then you have to look at the time it takes to build and the rent you pay on your current place plus the usual problems and extra costs you may encounter with your builder along the way. Once you take all costs into consideration its usually cheaper to buy established and save  your sanity plus a few years of waiting for any CG growth to occur. Unless you have a special block of land or want to build the house yourself there is no financial incentive to build a standard house in a new estate over buying a near new house in an established estate.
    In new estates there is a much larger percentage of people who overstretched their budget to buy, didn't consider traveling distance to work , breakup marriages caused by building or financial stress, etc. so there is a larger proportion of sellers willing to get out at any price then in established suburbs. That alone will cap any capital gains for a few years, then just when you think the sellers are getting scarce and its time to put your property on the market and get out at least what you put in and maybe a bit of return on your time and effort  a developer will release a few hundred blocks of land near you and stuff you up for a few more years. 

    I agree with the other posts, for the best CG I'd look for a near new house in an established suburb and in an area where developers already released all the land available.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Some people are saving, they may save it in property or shares as opposed to saving it in a bank but at the end of the day its still saving.  I don't know about other people but right now I look at the low bank returns and the inflation rate and don't see any reasons to keep the money in a bank. Tax or no tax the returns suck, the chance of any capital gains is 0 and I can't claim any tax deductions for traveling to the bank to see how my savings are doing or any depreciation expenses on my passbook . 
     

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    PosEnterprises wrote:
    Thanks Expert but if i leave early will be up for more than $2500 in fees!

    Sure  but if you get to save say $800 a month by moving you'd get it back in under 4 months.
    You'll need to work out how much you can save a month by moving and if its worth moving early.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:
    Hey Harb,

    Off current posts but back on original topic – do you still think property prices can't undergo a major downturn? You still a proptimist?

    Why, you still hope against all hope for some large falls ?
    Don't get greedy , we had some falls already   at least in the budget end of the market. I think its possible the top end of the market $1M+ will still go down a few more %, maybe, but I wouldn't put the house on it. At the budget end you have the FHOG and lower rates starting to kick in soon, my guess is that we'll see some evidence of a recovery by January and the market will continue to improve for the rest of 2009. Unemployment rate may go up but for every forced seller due to a job loss there are probably 100's of potential home buyers waiting to snap up a bargain so I wouldn't expect that to cause any price falls. There are still a few sellers who fell on hard times when the rates went higher and are still forced to sell at a loss but their numbers are coming down fast. On the other side of the equation you have buyers who have been sitting on the fence and are probably getting restless by now so at first sign of prices moving upwards they'll jump in afraid they may miss out .
    If I was looking to buy a place in the budget range I'd be quick about it , would try to find a bargain over the next 2-3 weeks and negotiate hard. Once the RBA drops the rates in December by another 0.75% or more likely 1% the market will start moving , the buyers will come out of the woodwork and sellers won't be willing to consider silly offers anymore.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Have you heard the latest from the GW academics ? The reason we didn't have an increase in global temperatures so far is because of all that pollution coming out of India and China. The smog blanket reflects the sun's rays and it helps to keep the planet at least 1-2 degrees cooler then it would otherwise be, which would imply that if the Chinese & Indians ever stop polluting we are all doomed.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Yossarian wrote:
    Yeah, all those atmospheric scientists driving Ferraris, theoretical physicists sunning themselves on yachts and molecular biologists skiiing in St Moritz.

    As opposed to being unemployed or having to take some menial job in a factory ? Too many scientists were left out in the cold in the post-cold war era so the GW scam was the perfect excuse to get them feeding on the taxpayers tit again. And while there why not use that as an excuse to put up some new taxes as well, right ? Could help to replace the revenue lost from the declining sales of tobacco products.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    zaz11 wrote:
    Hi
    I'm new to this site, and new to the idea of buying property as well. I've seen a really cheap piece of land, in a tiny town, that I could actually afford. (I'm a single mother to a young child)
    My idea was to buy it and hold onto it for a few years, maybe then I could afford somewhere that I would want to live. The land is priced lower than other land in the area.
    I literally would not be able to afford much else, so I guess I'm wondering if its better to own 'something' than nothing?

    If you receive any Centrelink benefits you may want to find out if buying a block is going to affect your benefits in any way. I know that in WA if you own a piece of land you are not eligible for state housing accommodation. You'll also be up for land tax, rates and whatever else you have to pay in your state for the joy of owning a block of land. Under normal circumstance with cheap blocks of land you may find that the holding costs are higher then any capital gains you may stand to make.
    I'd also go with what LA said and look at saving a bit more if you have to do so and go for a cheap house instead of the cheap land.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Yossarian wrote:
    Harb,

    You're not covering yourself with glory here

    never tried to, I'll leave that for F.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    keiko wrote:
    Hey harb, you say global warming is a scam and scientists are ripping everyone off saying there is global warming. how do you no that the honest scientists arn't the scammers trying to earn that quick buck .

    Yes you could be right except,
    1. the planet has been cooling for the past few years, even the D&G merchants agree with that.
    2. The "honest" scientist are not being paid to research global warming or cooling so no cozy jobs or quick bucks for them
    3. first it was the carbon causing the warming then the nitrogen now is the methane , see 1.
    4. they are talking about sea levels rising by x amount over the next 100+ years, after they're all dead and buried, yet they are all getting paid now . Its all a bit like religion, you have to take them on trust, pay them now and hope they didn't get it wrong or even worst- lied about it to keep their jobs.

    Quote:
    my mum lives on the water front and shes been saying for the last few years the sea levels have been rising up the wall outside the house,

    Unless your mum lives on a sinking atoll in the Pacific you'll find that her wall was probably built by Dodgy Bros. Pty. Ltd. and they didn't provide adequate foundation for that wall so its the wall that is sinking. Or it could be the whole suburb that is sinking if it was built on swampy ground, plenty of whole cities around the world that are sinking. I'm surprised the D&G merchants haven't used Venice or even Shanghai as evidence of sea levels rising cause by the global warming and CO2.

    Quote:
    i didn't take much notice then the other week they had motor scrapers going up and down the beach removing half a meter of sand, have they been outside your house lately.

    And the purpose of doing that being what, lowering the water level in the ocean ?
    No they haven't and if they did the planet would be in serious trouble. They used stones to line the canal and the land envelope extends well into the water, even at low tide the boundary line is 1.8 mtr under the water.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    James62 wrote:
    We locked in a 5yr fixed rate of 6.85% in 2004 so rate changes have not been a concern.
    The worry is income dropping to a point where loan payments cannont be made combined with a 10% or more drop in property prices.

    So really its the income drop that is causing your problems then since the house more or less pays for itself.  Forget about any price drops for a moment since they are irrelevant if you decide to hold on to it. At  $120 p/w you could just about stay on the dole and work 6 hrs p/w to continue paying  it off. 
    I'd be having a good look at that franchise business of yours and see if its worth keeping it.  Not sure what you've got but if its anything like the mobile touch-up paint vans and or the mobile car detailing franchises  I'd cut my losses and get a job. They haven't done that well even during the good times.
    Another thing you could try before you decide is to ask 2-3 RE agents over for a free quote and try to find  out how much would they think it would realistically sell for,  what is their cut ,what other fees & taxes would you have to pay.  Also check with your bank about the early discharge fees,any penalty fees, etc. Once you have all that you can work out  how much profit or loss you end up with. You may find that  at the end of the day you could have no IP but still own the bank some money and have repayments much higher then the $120 p/w you pay now.
    As I said before, only you can make the right decision for you.

    cheers

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    foundation wrote:
    I think I've been very measured in response to the provocation, aggression and outright lies from yourself and your buddy harb?

    provocation, aggression and outright lies ? That's not a very nice thing to say about your buddies.
    I was looking forward to finding out the reason they kicked you out ,

    Quote:
    . was there any particular reason you've had to change your username there ?

    was it because you were too bullish for them ?

    Quote:
    How is the silver going by the way , has it made it back past the USD10 yet ?

    Wow, holding silver for 4 years with no returns, no tax advantage and very little if any CG. I guess it could have been much worst, you could have taken a loan to buy the silver.
    Shame about not putting your money to better use back in 2004-2005, like getting a loan to buy some some properties in SA or WA before the boom there. If only you asked someone in here at the time ….
    On a 5% deposit, you could have made a killing and received a regular return on your investment along the way. Now you'd be sitting on 2-300% capital gains and positively geared properties that your tenants would be paying off for you. Much better then having sleepless nights or nightmares about Jack Sparrow digging up your backyard in search of your treasure chest.

    cheers,

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    James62 wrote:

    The debt on the property is currently $360k (we borrowed extra for other inv purposes). @$2000- p/mth I/O.

    Once rent has been increased to $360p/w I estimate the holding cost of the property is $120-p/w ($6k p/a) after tax rebates, costs etc.

    So with another 1.75% rate cut you'd be in front ?

    Quote:

    2. Property prices in the Berwick area falling. (Even a 5% drop would be significant if we needed to sell. More would be a disaster)

    In the current market with everyone sitting on the fence if you do put it on the market now you'll probably get tire kickers and bargain hunters offering 20% below market value. Not sure what the agents charge in your parts but at a guess I'd say expect at least 2%-3% in fees.
    On the other hand if you do get some decent offers its probably because the market has started to move upwards again. You'd be selling at the bottom after struggling to keep it and pay it off for 4-5 years for ZERO gain. By the time settlement has occurred the buyer would most likely end up with a positively geared property and possibly even some capital gain.

    Quote:

    3. Is it worth holding the property for capital gain (and continuing to lose money) when property values are expected to stay flat for the next 5 to 10 years?

    Maybe, its hard to predict the market 5 to 10 months ahead let alone 5 to 10 years. Perfect example was 4-5 months ago, economists were predicting rates to go up at least twice more before X-mas and to push them into double digits. Now you get some joker predicting rates going down to 0%

    Quote:

    We are very confused as whether we should struggle on to hold the property or to play it safe and sell now before it is too late.

    "To Sell or Not to Sell" any comments would be greatly appreciated.

    Only you can decide if selling or not selling is the right choice for you. If I was in this situation I'd hold on and if the business wasn't doing to well I'd get another job to supplement my income until the rates came down a bit more.
    Not only are the rates falling and will continue to do so for a while but I think they will stay low for a very very long time. By pumping all that billions into the market and guaranteeing bank deposits to calm nervous investors all they did was set the market for an oversupply of cash in the future. Bad news for cash returns and good news for shares and property. By X-mas 2009 I believe that based on today prices we could easily see gains of 25%-30% on shares and 15%-20% on property prices and the RBA rate down to around 2.5%
    In the end its your decision whichever way you want to go but before you decide ,
    1. have a good look at all this doom and gloom and see how much of it is real and how much is media hype.
    2. take a short holiday or at least a weekend away somewhere quiet before making a calm and rational decision. (somewhere without TV news, newspapers or mobile phones preferably )
    3. decide
     

    cheers & good luck

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    foundation wrote:

    And I post on globalhousepricecrash.com under the username Scary.

    You may be scary on ghpc but here you're just another Scamp.
    btw, was there any particular reason you've had to change your username there ?

    Quote:
    As for my magical 'risk free investment portfolio', if you haven't worked it out yet, cash is practically completely risk free (guaranteed by government).

    At the current rate the return on cash is going to be falling below the inflation rate before X-mas. Your 'risk free investment portfolio' is soon going to become a 'return free investment portfolio'

    cheers

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    foundation wrote:
    Aha!

    I've just uncovered (through my magical google powers) why Harry Harb here is such a nasty sarcastic creature!

    Here's what he was up to in September 2006:

    harb wrote:
    My favorite pick is South Yunderup, the suburb is on a dead end street with direct access to the highway and industrial areas north of it, near the river, Peel Inlet and close enough to shopping in Mandurah.

    Ok, you've got me.
    Too bad your google powers are a bit limited or you'd have also seen this,
    http://reiwa.com/res/res-urban-profile.cfm?suburb_id=2475&census_code=SSC52326&geogroup_id=4044&geogroup_parent_id=17
    And the freeway extension is not even complete yet. LOL

    Quote:
    Jeez, talk about bad timing! But I now understand the bitterness. And to make it worse:

    harb wrote:
    I have a Lowdoc with Rams and they WERE alright.
    Since they got in financial strife they've been putting the rates up monthly (currently over 10%) and the high exit fees just not makes it worth changing lenders. Not for a few more months yet when the exit fees drop to 1%

    Yes it was a bit of bad timing, I should have gone with one of the big banks instead but its all fixed now. Bitter may not be the right word here, since its all part of the NG and tax deductibile you'd have more reason to be bitter then me. I hate to waste, specially when it comes to money coming out of the taxpayer's pockets and going into the lenders pocket. Lucky for you that with silver you don't have to worry about NG, returns or wasting the taxpayer's money. How is the silver going by the way , has it made it back past the USD10 yet ?

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    foundation wrote:
    Flash, I bought a few dozen bullion-grade fine silver one ounce coins over 2004 & 2005. Also some Unc Australian Mint silver coins ranging from an ounce up to a couple of 10oz'ers. All bought when silver spot was less than US$7. None for more than AU$10.50. Currently up around 66%.

    Which I'm sure you've already sold back in March, none of it for less then $20. It was at that point that you foresaw the interest rates falling below 5% before Christmas and decided to move everything in a term deposit at 9% pa, or did you manage to get 10% ? You're a legend mate, I don't know how you do it.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    hbbehrendorff wrote:
    Its alright, Lord Rudd is going to to save us from the internet by slowing our speed down by 80% and banning any site that is contrary to the motherland.

    Oh lord rudd thou art is so wise and wonderful may all sites show tribute to your wisdom by placing a picture of our emperor on the top of every website (Those that are not banned of course)

    There is no need for any filters. I say get rid of the evil broadband altogether and go back to the 110 bps acoustic couplers, lets see you try downloading porn or pirated movies over that.

    And who said Rudd wasted his time in China at the taxpayers expense ? He picked up a lot more then just the Mandarin language from the Maoists but just imagine what a GREAT leader he'd be if he had the chance to study under the KGB and Stasi ?
    Make if we send him on a fact finding mission OS and some training with Putin, Kim & Mugabe, hopefully before the next election,  then have a proper referendum on becoming a republic he could become The chosen one.

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