Forum Replies Created
- Scamp wrote:Yes, this is what everyone who can afford to do that is doing. I believe none ( or very few ) of the people on this forum have actually tried to SELL a house instead of buy buy buy.
Why SELL it if you can RENT it ? Isn't that just like killing the golden goose ?
My oldest IP cost me just over $40K for the H&L package and is currently bringing $420/week in rent. Do you think that maybe I should sell it and share the profits with the taxman or be better off to continue renting it out ?Lets say I believe you and you are right for a change. I sell it now before your 40% crash arrives
and get $450K for it from which I would gracefully donate $200K to Mr Taxman.
The remaining $250K would be just enough to buy a similar property AFTER your 40% crash arrives (if prices didn't double again before it arrives) and I'd be renting it for whatever I get now. The only people that would profit from all this would be Mr Taxman and the RE agent. So the question is Why Bother Selling?Scamp wrote:harb wrote:For that to happen we'd have to be in a property bubble which we aren'tHarb, you're still in the 'denial' phase my friend ? Most of your colleagues have already passed that phase and are now in the 'angry' phase.
And why would they be 'angry' ? Angry for interest rates falling ? Angry because the government who doubled the grant ? Oh I know, they must be angry because they had to put up rents when IR was going up and now they've become CF +ve and lost the NG.
Quote:You mean to say that 10 to 12 times wages is not a property bubble ?It sure is, that's why Mosman is unaffordable to the average person.
Anyone on low incomes can start up in Lithgow at 3-4 times wages and work their way towards Harbour Bridge, or they can rent and wait for the crash that will make Mosman affordable to all the 4M+ people living in Sydney.ummester wrote:During both recessions, house prices did decline.
In the 80s, I remember my parent's peers putting of moving, upgrading, holidays, new cars and all sorts of things just to concentrate on the mortgages.
.Maybe in your part of the woods, here in Perth prices went from mid 30s to high 90s during the 80s. Must have been different in Perth.
Quote:I had one peer with a house when we went into the 90's recession and he was very concerned about his equity. He worked hard and did a lot of cashies (was in a niche trade) to make sure that he stayed in front.I think you'll find it was the up to 18% IR that he was concerned with, even then prices didn't fall that much.
Quote:I hope you aren't too highly leveraged harb, because I'd hate to see you loose your sense of humour…Not these days, even when I used to be it was only 50% max.
Scamp wrote:Harb my dear,The problem is not convincing yourself that your properties are worth 10 million dollars each.
The problem is trying to sell them and finding out that the only offer you get is 200.000.Then refusing to sell them for less then 10 million dollars each would solve my problem.
Scamp wrote:It's time for me to delete my account. I wish everyone on the forum good luck with whatever they want to do. All the info you need is there. I wish both the investors and the people who wait for better times ahead the very best of luck in their endeavors. I have a new project starting and I won't have time to spend on these forums anymore.
I hope you all got something out of the post.byebye
What happened ? The Delete button didn't work for you or have you now found plenty of time ?
gmh454 wrote:Still think all my points will fall into line, though I do see your angles, and they will have some impact, and on Perth been waiting since 2003, and it is very very soon.
I really do feel sorry for anyone waiting since 2003 and this would explain the hopes for a miraculous 50%-60% crash that some people have. They've made the mistake of waiting for a correction and refused to admit they could be wrong, its called being in denial and I'm guilty of it sometimes.
Probably would act the same way now if I gave in to temptation in 2003, after prices went up so much between 2000 and 2003 (compared with the previous 10 years) I was seriously thinking to sell my IPs and buy them back when they fell 20%. Good thing I didn't or now I'd be hanging around at ghpc praying for a miracle.
http://www.reiaustralia.com.au/documents/MR_25_June_2003_House_Prices_Climb.docHobart recorded the highest quarterly growth of 12.0% for its median house price of $165,000. The quarterly increases in other capital cities were 7.7% to $265,000 for Canberra, 5.5% to $201,000 for Adelaide, 4.2% to $202,600 for Perth, 3.6% to $347,000 for Melbourne, 3.5% to $265,000 for Brisbane, 3.4% to $215,000 for Darwin and 2.2% to $460,000 for Sydney.
wealth4life.com wrote:Hi Hard,Yes this thread has been going since 2006 … because the bubble burst in 2005 at the peak.
When the bubble burst in Sydney, more of a slow leak actually, everything spilled nicely into the other capitals. What bubble burst ?
Compare the Australian median prices on 2005 with 2008 or compare the capital cities for the same periods. Sydney was the only city that has not experienced solid growth which is why I think it could be the first to start moving.Quote:We are in a WORLD credit crisis … if the market in property starts going up tomorrow say 30% across the board who has the capacity to BUY when jobs and wages are being suspended?????The times earning ratio on affordability is way out of wack … thats the problem so can a person on $100,000.00 income buy a 2 million dollar property and raise two kids on it at a 100% home loan … show me …
The market is not going up 30% tomorrow or even this year, at least I don't think so. Renting is getting to be more expensive then buying so the question is WHO would rent if they can BUY cheaper ?
As for the person on a $100,000 income maybe he should start with a $300,000 property instead of going straight for the 2 million dollar property ? I wouldn't mind buying a $100+ million property but unfortunately for me my bank manager thinks that I too have a problem with the earnings/affordability ratio.Scamp wrote:It's all a big scam, and it's all falling apart. And Harb, I feel sorry for you if you own property in Perth.
Thanks Scamp.
Quote:C2, can you post your houses on this forum with your prices so we can take a look at them and see for ourselves ? See, I have trouble believing people when they say "my houses gone up 20%" while we're in a severe recession and economic malaise ( not to say 'depression' ).What, only 20% ?
Have a look at the median price for our capital cities here,
http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/media_release/Home%20Price%20Guide%20Media%20Release%200206.pdf
then go back over all that D&G that your buddies posted back in 2005 both here and on ghpc . They also had trouble believing in the beginning, now they have progressed and are in complete and total denial. Even medication won't help them anymore.
Scamp wrote:harb wrote:Say it ain't so and prices have not doubled in the past 7 years.Houseprices, under normal circumstances, double every 10 years. Noone said they don't.
The explanation is simple : Inflation. Everything doubles / triples / quadruples every 10 years. My income in the last 10 years has quadrupled for instance. Did I do particularily well ? hm… well no , everything has become more expensive in the meantime, so I'm not that much better off.Ah, but in that case we can't be in a real bubble since most of price increases have been caused by inflation. Any small real increases can be justified by the increase in the population numbers and an increase in size and quality of our homes.
Quote:Housing doubled compared to wages, and need to come down 50% now to get back to normal. Probably more because credit is not available anymore and people have gotten themselves so much in debt that there are less buyers without creditcards / huge loans etc.To get back to what you call normal you'd have to reduce the population number down to what it was back when things were "normal" The average size house also doubled and now includes mandatory solar HWS, insulation and rainwater tanks as well as other goodies that used to cost extra.
Quote:We'll go back to the 'traditional 3* median income' which means median houseprices in Sydney / Melbourne will come back to 200.000 abouts. And perhaps we will overshoot the crash and end up like Detroit, but any less than 50% ( in real terms , inflation corrected ) will not be happening.
No we won't, not unless we also go back to the "traditional" 2br fibro cottage on the outskirts of town and the long drop dunny at the back of the property. Do a materials costing on a standard 4×2 and see how much of your 200.000 would be needed just for materials alone.I'm guessing you have arived in Oz and have had a good look at Sydney so I ask you, does Sydney look anything remotely like Detroit ? The main reason Detroit crashed was not high priced but the dissapearance of jobs in the auto industry which supported the whole town. Without jobs people there packed up and moved to other towns in search of jobs.
Compare that with Sydney /Melbourne were there is no ONE industry that supports the town but let pretend that somehow all the jobs there were to dissapear overnight. Now what ? Even if 5% of the population could find jobs in Brisbane and Perth and decided to move there doing so would cause masive housing shortages and the obligatory prices rises and rents through the roof over there. That's why its different over here.blogs wrote:We are on the cusp of a prolonged recession, if not depression, unemployment will be double current amounts by years end, property prices in Australia are about to get smashed and you are laughing because of the past bubble?So you are predicting a prolonged recession and unemployment at 9% ? I've seen better in early 80's.
Property prices about to get smashed ? I don't think so. For that to happen we'd have to be in a property bubble which we aren't, despite what the potential buyers on ghpc would want us to believe. Btw, have you actually been in a recession yourself or are you just reciting from the ghpc manual ?Quote:Better hurry up and sell or you wont be alughing for much longer IMHO-lets be honest here, things are about to turn nasty very quickly, you niave enough to think Oz will be imune?You are not getting impatient to buy, are you ?
If I didn't sell when interest rates were much higher and rents much lower why would I want to sell now ? I've heard that things were about to turn nasty before, everything from recessions, war with Argentina over some pissy island, Halley's comet crashing to Earth and the big Y2K which was going to send us back to the stone age. Somehow I managed to survive these extinction events so I'm preety sure that I can handle unemployment at double the current amounts.ummester wrote:harb wrote:Lets see, Brisbane median prices 7 years ago were around $200K and now they are$400k+ ….Yes, looks like it is "garaunteed to double every 7 years"
Even adjusted for inflation you would be well ahead of just keeping your money in a bank.You are still the ultimate proptimist:) Brings a smile to my dial.
Obviously I haven't been away long enough. I'll check back in another few months and see how your confidence in this market is.
Say it ain't so and prices have not doubled in the past 7 years.
ummester wrote:Nah, Adelaide was the last big boom – will hurt equal to, if not harder than Perth by the time it is all done and dusted.
Believe it or not I've heard that a few times before and the only people hurting were the ones that didn't participate in the boom or the people who joined in the boom right at the peak and had to wait a few years before seeing any gains.
harb wrote:So basically, they are trying to sell less for more and wonder why it isn't really going off? I went back to Perth twice last year – it's grown quite a lot but property prices in places like Manduarah were out of control.Prices around Mandurah have backed off a bit in the past 12 months but the freeway extension when completed later this year may help them recover the recent loses. . You can still get something like a 200sqm+ almost new double brick home on a 600sqm+ block of land in a new suburb like Lakelands, 5 minutes to the beautiful sandy beaches or a golf course, easy freeway access and 10-15 minutes drive from your job in the Kwinana or Bibra Lake industrial areas all from around $350K. Or a 20 years brick oldie in nearby suburbs from around $250k. Compare that to what you get in the Eastern states for that kind of money and you can see that it represents excellent value for money. I don't know what you mean by prices out of control.
gmh454 wrote:I think you have to think big picture, not just IR.Things for 2009
Unemployment up -whether it is 7.5 -8.5 or 4.5 to 5.5 it is still the upward movement not the actual % that is key. It is the changes that occur to that 1-3% that will loose jobs. Some will get employed quickly. For most that will be rare. In 1983 I beat the traps for 2 mths and only got a job when I worked for $5 or 20% less than before
In 1983 unemployment was over 10% and yet there were lots of jobs available if you didn't mind what job you took. I remember not wanting to work and the social security guys harassing me to take a job or they were going to cut my dole if I refused the third job offer. After taking 3 jobs in as many months I had no more excuses and decided to try my luck in SA where they supposedly had higher unemployment rates. I remember the good times I had at Glenelg beach for a whole week before the the social security office found me a job and made me an offer I couldn't refuse.
As long as jobs are available any upward movement in unemployment rates is artificial and anyone squeezed hard enough will take whatever job is available rather then the job they would prefer doing. When it comes to jobs I think we are in a much better position now then we were in 1983.
Quote:For the working masses many without a house will bail, and head north or south for the coast, if you are on the dole, cut your overheads and enjoy the beach.I think they got smarter these days, you move to a higher unemployment area and they cut you off the dole. Then when you do get it its off to paining rocks or whatever they do on the work for the dole program these days.
Quote:A stack of 417 workers will be going home, as Aussies will now do what they would not do before.
Housing shortage now solved …actually although the REI keeps trying to beat it up, we have not heard much about it for a while..Not quite, some of the Aussies replacing the 417 workers would come from the mines where they lived in dongas and other employer provided accommodation and some would be returning expats. The only housing shortage solved would be in mining towns and very little would change in the cities.
Quote:Of course the ppl who lose jobs will spend less, less money going round will mean guys like my coffee shop owner downstairs will not replace "Mona", and so the slide will go on. More and more business's will slow with job losses, overtime losses creeping upThe coffee shop owner will now have to work for a living instead of hanging around chatting to customers and keeping an eye on "Mona" .
Mona if unskilled can easily find a job pushing a broom , filleting fish or replacing some of the backpackers working illegally in orchards and vineyards.Quote:Right now the RE market is suspended, as sellers are holding back for recovery this year, and newbies are using whatever equity to snatch up a bargain, as they think this is Christmas, low rates, the market dropping, a boom is around the corner.But isn't that exactly what happened after 1983 and 2001? If not for the 18% IR its very likely that it would have happened in 1991 as well.
Quote:and by way of comparison the top end lead the RE market down in 1991 but everything eventually followed and if you drop was 20% you were lucky..this will be worse.and Perth will cough up a lung…. ( I have been waiting to say that for so long..)
I don't remember Perth going down 20% in 1991, more like 5% but anyway I hope you haven't been waiting since then.
Just how long have you been waiting to say that ? This thread has only been going on since 2006 when median prices in most capital cities were $100k lower and rents were almost half they are now.
…Worse to come ? Maybe for renters and fence sitters.ummester wrote:All that said, there are still more coming on than what are going under offer, prices aren't going up and my deposit is ever increasing…
Talking of prices not going up, I came across a February 2006 report and was surprised by the increase in the median prices in most cities since then. I was under the impression that Perth was the only one to go up noticeably since 2006 and even that by only about $50K, specially since Perth was the last one to boom until mid 2007 with 2008 being a flat or down year for most cities.
http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/media_release/Home%20Price%20Guide%20Media%20Release%200206.pdf
Makes reading the old 2005 predictions on D&G Central even more hilarious.Quote:BTW back – hows Perth doing:)Better then expected considering all that D&G about resources in the papers. The low end of the market seems to be making a slow start and land sales in the cut priced sub $200k market has been picking up but unfortunately the price was not all they cut last year, now we probably have the smallest blocks of land releases anywhere in Australia.
blogs wrote:Since when are Sunshine & Gold Coasts cities ? I was under the impression they were holiday destinations.
What a surprise, canal homes on Gold Coast and apartments in Mooloolaba are unaffordable to the average worker on median incomes. Isn't that why they have Ipswich and Gympie for ?Quote:The Demographia study shows not that housing on the Sunshine Coast is more expensive than in New York, but that median prices relative to median wages are worse.
So its all smoke and mirrors and housing on Sunshine Coast is NOT more expensive then New York ?
Quote:Awwwww but isnt property garaunteed to double every 7 years? lolLets see, Brisbane median prices 7 years ago were around $200K and now they are$400k+ ….Yes, looks like it is "garaunteed to double every 7 years"
Even adjusted for inflation you would be well ahead of just keeping your money in a bank.ummester wrote:Scamps posts drew me here and to the GHPC forums, everyone remembers that he was preaching the crash a year or 2 back.
Scamp was preaching the garbage he read on ghpc and they were preaching the same thing since before the last boom.Sooner or later they were due to get something right but even recent 2005 posts are laughable when you look at property markets other then Sydney.
Btw, do you get the impression that the sub $500k market in ACT is picking up ? Lots of Under Offer and Sold on re.com since the start of this year.Quote:By the same token, everyone with half a brain could see it coming.
That explains it, we'll need a lobotomy or we'll never see it.
Scamp wrote:I was looking for my previous posts , only to find that they all got deleted.
A shame, because there was some very interesting reading and warnings in there, also some nice replies from people. It was titled something like "Do not invest now, the property market is crashing" and was posted about a year ago.I wonder why an investment forum would have deleted that post…
See, I've told you you'd get paranoid if you hang around with the wrong crowd on other forums.
and get $450K for it from which I would gracefully donate $200K to Mr Taxman. 
