Forum Replies Created
- crashy wrote:harb wrote:Looking at the Northern Hemisphere recently , who after all are the biggest polluters on the planet, it seems they are returning to the Ice Age .
harb, its GLOBAL warming…..not hemisphere warming buddy! there isnt a "northern hemisphere CO2 tank" ya know.
First, if its GLOBAL warming why are they having the first October snow in 70 years and biggest London snowfall in 18 years ? Or is only our part of the GLOBE that is warming ?
Quote:secondly, you realise its winter there right?Hmmm… That would explain why "PARTS of Australia will be hotter than the African plains or Middle Eastern deserts this weekend,"
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,25015424-2,00.html?from=public_rssQuote:thirdly, an armchair scientist like you would surely know that global warming symptoms include colder winters, ie worse extremes?So how is it Global Warming if the Northern Hemisphere is getting colder and experiencing colder winters ? Or is it only GW during summer GC during winter ? Maybe they should change it to Climate Changing, or better still….we could all jump up and down in sync until we cause the planet's axis to tilt then we could call these extremes Seasons.
Quote:fourthly, didnt the U.S & UK have record heat waves during their summer?And who are now being compensated with record cold waves ? Overall Global warming effect = Zero
While the Eastern seaboard experienced temperatures of 40C+ in the West we had to put up with a miserable 25C so the overall effect is zero warming.Quote:as for A/C heat pumps, that has NO net effect on warming, since it merely transports heat from one place to another. no heat is "created". you could however argue that the electricity used to run them contributes to global warming.Actually only the evaporator coil + condenser coil = NO net effect, the compressor itself does create heat when working. But besides that or the fact that something like 50% of the heat produced to created the electricity is wasted or the fact that some of that electricity is lost in the way to your home. You only have "NO effect on warming" if you keep both the evaporator and condenser together inside the same room, which would defeat the purpose of having an A/C in the first place.
By cooling the inside the house you are heating the outside of it, so while you are right and the heat pump's overall effect on warming the planet is almost none the only reported temperatures are the outside ones. ( which have been artificially heated up by your heat pump)
A while a few heat pumps alone may hardly make any difference we now have millions of them which get turned on whenever the temperatures get high in the city. The reverse applies in winter which as you admit are now getting colder. Since human activity is similar to a heat pump and has NO overall net effect on the planet temperatures it blows the Global Warming theory out of the water.
crashy wrote:yeah what a scam, its only 47 degrees!
Boobloodyhoo, told ya to forget about that GW crap and buy near the water where is much cooler but noooo…..you listened to dodgy scientists and moved in the hills because they predicted sea levels to rise and drown us in our sleep. Now you've discovered that heat rises to the top and you've got scammed ?
Quote:and I heard the previous record of 9 days 40+ will be smashed…….now 12 days!
Yippee, we're going for the record. I knew that surrounding the CBD concrete jungle with hundreds of thousand of tightly packed roofs is the way to go. Still, don't celebrate too soon in case it doesn't qualify as a record because we've had an unfair advantage with millions of aircond compressors helping to pump extra hot air. But now that we know it works we can always try again next summer and with a bit of planning I'm sure we can do much better then just 47C.
Anyone with a house on a 700sqm block could help by subdividing the block and replacing the backyard lawn with a brand new brick house. The government could help by legislating that all land released in the new estates be limited to a maximum 350sqm per lot and all new houses built on them be constructed from bricks. Each house should have at least 170sqm of living area, preferably dark roofs covering at least 250sqm and any remaining land covered by dark pavers.
It would also help with any future record breaking attempts if we could have councils ban all the reflective corrugated zinc roofs and have them replaced them with something more fashionable like black tile roofs.Its up to us to succeed so lets work closely together (and live even closer) and I'm confident we can become the hottest place on Earth.
Quote:those dodgy scientists had us all worried for nuthin!
Last night another one of these dodgy scientists came on TT to do some more scaremongering. The current heatwaves, floods and cyclones are all caused by the GW and temperatures have been going up by 0.2C a year. ( hopefully by paying for research now we can avoid temperatures reaching boiling point in 100 years)
He was also sure that in the future Australia will continue to experience cyclones, floods and drought but the good news is that at least for now the worst may be over and the temperatures will start falling over the next few months. Someone should have told that clown that its called Winter and its been known to cause a drop in temperatures previously. Or maybe they've sent him on TV to rattle the tin for some more funds so they can start research into the new culprit ?
Quote:Indian Ocean is drought culprit
THE main cause of our droughts and flooding rains has been traced to the waters of the Indian Ocean, according to a new report from the University of NSW which could overturn decades of weather research.
The study shows that the cycle of El Nino and La Nina events, which have long been thought to play a major role in south-east Australia's weather patterns, are in fact less important than the Indian Ocean.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/indian-ocean-is-drought-culprit/2009/02/04/1233423310800.html
Are these the same guys you trust to predict 100 years into the future ?
Quote:lets all keep driving our 4wds in the CBD eh?crashy, that may not be such a bad idea.
Looking at the Northern Hemisphere recently , who after all are the biggest polluters on the planet, it seems they are returning to the Ice Age .Quote:The biggest snowfall to hit London in 18 year –
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28972533/and
Quote:Parts of south-east England had more than an inch of snow last night while London experienced its first October snowfall in more than 70 years as winter conditions arrived early.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/oct/29/weather-londonSo all you latte drinking new age CBD dwelling guys out there if you can't handle the heat then stop using public transport to get to work and buy yourselves a large 4WD like a petrol powered Patrol. ( if you can't afford one then any of old V8 gas guzzler that can burn at least 20L/100km and put out CO2 of at least 400g/km will do and if anyone asks just say you are into recycling or driving classic cars )
mymatephil wrote:I love reading Scamps rants but has anyone else noticed that he keeps blowing his cover story?You give him to much credit. He got the old Equity Mate and most of his other rants from hanging around at ghpc were he would like to fit in but is almost as popular as he is here.
bardon wrote:harb wrote:bardon wrote:what about Peak Oil ? Anything on that ?Peak Oil will only return when prices go above US$100 a barrel.
Dont suppose you could repost some of Scamps posts on peak oil I think they were in the same vein as IR's would be good to review if you can get them.
Scamp wasn't a true believer in peak oil , could you be thinking of Scamp's mate Peak Oil ?
Scamp wrote:"I've been saying Iran war is unavoidable since February. By the way, fuel prices in holland are already 3$ per litre.
Saying fuel prices won't reach 2$ or higher is bollocks : They will. I must admit, 8$ is the doom scenario that even I ( Mr. Doom&Gloom ) find a bit on the high side. I think in the years to come fuel will come to about 4$ per litre and stay stable, mainly due to replacement on fuel prices. After fuel has been replaced by other energy, fuel prices could go up to 20$ or more per litre, basically becoming a luxury item rather than a common good. But by that time, it won't matter much anyway, since the world won't be depending on fuel anymore, it will be the few 'V8 Dodge Chargers' etc running through the streets from the yuppies, the rest will own normal electric cars, either powered entirely by solar power, or relying on hydrogen fuel cells or waterpowered or something in the same lines."
" There's plenty of oil. Speculation drove oil prices up , not 'shortage'. Basically, the exact same thing that happened to housing. Speculation drove those prices up also, not shortage. There's no shortage of housing in Australia. There's no shortage of oil in the world."Scamp was more into RBA bashing,
Scamp wrote:"AUD dollar is collapsing as we speak. Are you blind ? the dollar went from near 1 USD to 70USD.
It will drop more now that the RBA lowered 1% interest. Please do your homework before you post something. That's a 30% drop in the AUD dollar. If that's not a crash then please, tell me what is."
"Oil will be 2$ per litre. Especially with the 30 drop in AUD dollar and what's still to come. Fuel might be lower now, the only reason is that recession is hitting the world.""50% houseprice drop : Did I say it would drop 50% in less than 6 months ? Ofcourse not. In fact, I told you that the bottom would certainly not be earlier than January 2009, and with the recent actions by RBA and government, it will take longer because now it changed to a recession instead of an economic dip.
You will see, 50% houseprice drop will happen."
"Dropping interestrates : Yes you are right, I predicted interest rates to go up and they SHOULD have gone up, but they went down. This is completely illogical and has caught most economists by surprise. The drops so far in interest have resulted in a 30% ( !!!!! ) drop in the AUD and it just shows that the RBA has no clue on what they are doing. They have a different agenda. Do you think the AUD dropping is a good thing ? Think again. The drop in the AUD is going to cause massive problems for Australia in the short / medium AND long term.""Mind you : Dropping interest rates is done for a reason. In 1990 ( you remember, than recession Australia had to have ) RBA dropped interest rates like this. It caused 20% unemployment and loads of trouble for Australia."
"Please, don't speak about things you have no clue about. If you think you were right with the drops of interest rates, this is a very short term, PANIC ACTION by the RBA.
House prices will now, more than ever, and with 100% certainty , drop 50%.""There is no doubt. Recession is coming, commodities ( australia's main export product ) have already crashed on top of 30% loss of the AUD dollar. I'm just telling you like it is, nothing different.
By the way, I'll let you in on a secret on the real reason the RBA has dropped the interest rates.
Mortgage resets.And guess what ? people won't 'save 200$ per month'. They will go from their locked in low interestrates of 6% to the 'new' interestrates of 8%. They will actually have to pay 400$ MORE than before. Thanks to the mortgage resets."
"The RBA just wanted to make the blow a little less bad.
Instead of going from 6% to 9%, they will now go from 6% to 8%.
And the RBA has destroyed the only thing the Australians had ( their strong AUD ) by doing it."Peak Oil wrote:And all the rubbish that China would save our butt , what a joke with China being on one the longest and most massive rampages out doing the rest of us put together , of course it's gonna slow . I wouldn't be at all surprised if China slips in the deepest recession on record .When you say recession do you mean a real recession or a slowdown of GDP growth to 7%-8%?
I can't see the Chinese going into a real recession simply because they don't have to. With all that talk of China joining the world economies its easy to forget that banks and businesses are owned by the state who also control prices, interest rates, the currency, job creation and virtually everything else that our politicians could only dream off. And unlike our system were politicians are too scared of losing their jobs and perks if they make the hard decisions the Chinese don't have that problem.Quote:The simple facts were , Australia is just an ordinary country it's not Tuscany or the Bahamas so what possibly sustainably justifies 7 and 8 times the average wage in house prices or cost of living ?
Then the direction Howard let prices and lack of scruples on ' everything ' and everyone in this country run riot , I mean who would believe it could continue on that path with no consequence ?I don't see it as house prices being twice as expensive as they should be but rather our income being half what is should be. And while its easy to blame Howard for the current situation, specially if you are an ALP supporter, the fact is our problems began much earlier then 1996. They started in 1983 with Keating's Prices and Incomes Accord where workers gave up their right to decent wage increases in exchange for a promise by Hawke and Keating to control inflation. The workers kept their end of the bargain and got screwed while Keating came up with a new excuse and new Accord almost every year until his final Accord Mark VIII after which the voters saw him for the BS artist he was.
Quote:I've also believed for years that there is no rental crisis or housing shortage .I agree with you there is no housing shortage as such. There are plenty of vacant houses, just not in the right locations. All these people who think they are to precious to live in the outback or undesirable suburbs should be trapped while queuing at rental open houses and forcibly relocated to other areas where rental properties are available and towns are dying.
Quote:Personally I think the average Joe feels that orrr, prices are flattening , nows a great time to get a bargain for 3 or 400 k so along with FHOG they think they're doing well . Unfortunately I still think those prices will prove ridiculous in the long run.
If past history is anything to go by you could be right , those prices will prove ridiculously cheap since every recession is followed by a boom.
Quote:Because one , FH owners need a hand to even get close to in the door now – even though they shouldn't actually be buying now if they can wait but two , so much extends from the building and housing industry .
Atleast keeping those areas ticking over if nothing else surely does have to help atleast a bit. !Actually FHBs looking to buy at the very low end of the market based on price alone should have bought as soon as the increased FHOG was announced. Waiting until now just gives them less properties to pick from and the best picks gone, competition from investors hunting for CF +ve IPs and sellers less willing to negotiate the further the rates drop. The best time to buy IS when everyone else is in a panic and selling.
bardon wrote:what about Peak Oil ? Anything on that ?Peak Oil will only return when prices go above US$100 a barrel.
Scamp wrote:I was looking for my previous posts , only to find that they all got deleted.
A shame, because there was some very interesting reading and warnings in there, also some nice replies from people. It was titled something like "Do not invest now, the property market is crashing" and was posted about a year ago.I wonder why an investment forum would have deleted that post…
Hello old friend,
To save you looking for old threads and give you more time to post here I put together some of your more memorable warnings here. So enjoy…
Scamp on investing,Scamp wrote:"Stay out of property… until you can buy for 200.000 instead of 500.000…."
"The bottom could be anywhere between 3 years from now, or 20 years from now, depending on how much the government will mess with the whole thing."
"I predict goldprice higher than 1100, possibly higher than 1200 by march 2009 ( write it down somewhere ). That's about 20% increase.
Speak to you in January 2009 about that prediction."and on the "new type" of investor
Scamp wrote:"I have heard that Rudd is planning to limit the amount of credit that banks can lend as mortgage will be controlled by law. Something like 4 times gross wages. Don't say noone warned you. ( Even if the warning came from Europe )"
"Rudd will *NEVER* let the rents inflate. Remember my words.
The plan :
– councils will make up standard rental prices per region
– government will make a list of aspects of a rental house. These include amount of light ( window size , height from the floor at which windows starts ), number of rooms, number of bathrooms, pool ? garage ? parking availability, location, amount of garden, total space of the house etc.
Based on these calculations, you will get a median price, which you can get inflation correction on.
And that, my friends , will be the start of a new type of investor, and the end of the old investors.
Oh yes, banks won't lend you more than 4 times your wages, and 'equity' can't be used in getting new mortgages. Believe me when I say this will all happen."Scamp on interest rates,
Scamp wrote:"rates will rise by 0.5 percent this year, and keep going up , and up and up. There's 0% chance of them going down. Oil prices add to the pressure, as inflation is up up up, so interest must go up up up to 13% base rates minimum, which means 18% variable rates.
These are interesting times, especially when you think a lot of property investors have 20 (!!) properties or more, all NEGATIVELY geared of barely above 0 at their fixed low rates that will jump to 10% in september."
"reports from the banks say that that is the month that the first of a lot of mortgages will reset from fixed rates to variable rates. That's 6% to 10%. That's about double repayments , every month from September 2008 on.
The reset will take until about July 2009, with about 30.000 mortgages resetting every month. September is the first of those months."
"I have said a few times on GlobalHousePriceCrash.com that for my area of interest the prices will probably bottom out around january 2009. Why not before ?
Even if interest rates go down, the monthly repayments will still go UP. How can this be ?
For one, banks will individually rise interestrates, whatever RBA does doesn't matter. They do this with a good reason which I won't explain here, fact is simply they will do it. But more importantly, a lot of 5-year and 3-year fixed mortgages will be reset to variable interestrates around september 2008 up to june 2009. That means many people who used to pay 6% will now have to pay 10%. This means on average an increase of 1500$ per month extra payments."and Scamp in denial,
Scamp wrote:"Interest rates won't fall…
It's a hoax, just like all the spruiker stuff the real estate agents post.
Even *IF* RBA lowers interest, the banks will keep rising them anyway, so the situation will only get worse if the RBA drops interest rates "
"Interest cuts will make Australia's pain worse rather than easier. It will just make a recession more painful, that's really all it does. RBA will not cut rates this year, and banks will keep raising interest rates.
Anything else will rise unemployment, hurt export and not have an effect anyway. There you have it : the truth. No good news coming for some years unfortunately."
"RBA will *NOT* lower the rates, how many times do you want me to tell you.
Just take the advice, and do something with it. It can be predicted, and it just was.
Just do the maths and you will know why they won't lower the rates.""Banks will keep raising interestrates because credit is expensive. What RBA does is futile."
then there was Scamp the advisor,
Scamp wrote:"Why don't you fix your interest now for 5 years ? At least you won't be one of the foreclosed ones.
Closing your eyes or putting your head in the sand won't let the problem go away : act now, fix your interest at 8.75% ( yes , you can still do this with your bank ) before you HAVE to do anything.
Interest at this moment will only go up , because Rudd wants to fight off inflation at all costs ( that's what he says anyway ) Just read the news, and make up your mind. I would not be surprised to see another 0.25 interest increase in June and one more in September.
Remember the 17% interest rates ?… they're coming back. "Scamp the tactician,
Scamp wrote:"The best tactic is to rent a home for 100-200 per week out of the expensive rental area's and buy a cheap car, maybe a bicycle, and get a job in a government position somewhere , or in education."and finally the almsgiving Scamp,
Scamp wrote:"because in the end, I will pay for those people's mistakes when I live in Australia from next year on.
Taxes will go up , pensions will go down, pension age will go up from 65 ( or whatever it is in Australia ) to 70, more crime, more homeless, more pressure on 'efficiency' ( Lean / Toyota-style Japanese-style company management ), burglar alarms and fences just to keep the lowlifes away from me and my girlfriend."
By now you probably wish your posts were deleted.
ps. how is the house hunting for 100/week rentals going ? If you strike out in Sydney I saw one in Parkes near the hospital if you're interested, you could walk to work.
cheers
bardon wrote:Bill Gates may not be a property spruker but he is a Corporate Spruiker and he is just talking up thr defaltion thing as he has been told to.He'd know all about deflation, his MS Office software has been deflating for years.
hbbehrendorff wrote:James Packer… Once richest man in Australia, Even he is being forced into selling his assets at reduced prices to keep afloat….Harb do you have enough Cash in the bank to keep hold of all your assets (rates, land taxes,maintenance, ect ect) and live for a year or two without any income coming in from them ?
I'll be alright for a decade or three, I'm so frugal I don't even own an iPod and buy all my booze of eBay.
.
I think the Packer situation is no different to many rich families along the centuries… the poor great-grandfather works hard and accumulates some wealth, the grandfather works smart and increases the wealth, the father multiplies it and then comes sonny who gets to loose it all before a new cycle of wealth begins again.ummester wrote:devo76 wrote:What has that got to do with the price of eggs in Tasmania ?Generally a vehicle speeding towards a slow moving object (such as pedestrians) results in a CRASH:)
Why does the slow moving object have to be a pedestrian ? It could just as well be the property steamroller.
