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  • Profile photo of harbharb
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    AimHigher wrote:
    So I say to you all :

    Don't poke Scamp!

    I know You don't really mean that. Besides, this thread is in the Help Needed !section and if Scamp doesn't need help then who does ?
    Wasn't there some ABC reporter on this forum looking for a story not that long ago ? How about a story about a young migrant arriving here from a civilized European country, his grandiose dreams and the culture shock of landing in a banana republic. The daily struggle for survival in a typical aussie backyard, putting up with red-backs and funnel web spiders and the occasional king brown and tiger snakes crawling from under the fibro rented house. Then after a hard day's work renovating a lovely blue asbestos cottage the constant lookout for stingers,jellyfish, blue-ring octopus, sea snakes, sharks and saltwater crocs while trying to cool himself down at the beach in temperatures of 44 degrees plus. Finally when the sun goes down and he goes to bed thinking that he can now finally relax the Encephalitis and Ross River virus carrying mosquitoes come out to play. We could just call it SCAMP, get Michael Caton to host it and it could become more popular then Backyard Blitz and Hot Property put together.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    rudo1ph wrote:

    There is also a large carport on the side of the house which could easily be enclosed.

    Should be quite easy to turn it into a TV or games room .
    Like crashy said, if you've already got 4 br it should be enough for most people. Unless you're looking at renting the rooms individually.

    cheers

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Scamp wrote:
    Interest rates won't fall…
    It's a hoax, just like all the spruiker stuff the real estate agents post.

    Even *IF* RBA lowers interest, the banks will keep rising them anyway,

    Scamp, I thought you'd like to read this. Yes, I know…. The other banks won't follow them.

    ANZ cuts fixed mortgage rates

    http://business.theage.com.au/business/anz-cuts-fixed-mortgage-rates-20080808-3s4w.html

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Scamp wrote:
    I can't get dole until I spent 2 years in Australia at least :P

    Bugger, then make that 6 months fruit picking for someone who includes accommodation.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Scamp wrote:
    Taxes will go up , pensions will go down, pension age will go up from 65 ( or whatever it is in Australia ) to 70, more crime, more homeless, more pressure on 'efficiency' ( Lean / Toyota-style Japanese-style company management ), burglar alarms and fences just to keep the lowlifes away from me and my girlfriend.

    Actually both taxes and pensions are going up Scamp. And I wouldn't bother with burglar alarms, nobody takes any notice of them in Australia. In fact you'll probably end up assaulted by your own neighbors if your alarm wakes them up in the middle of the night too many times.

    Tax review to consider boost for pensioners

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/tax-review-to-consider-boost-for-pensioners-20080807-3rsv.html

    Quote:
    Eventually, the answer is either much more taxes, or much higher crime. Neither of them benefits me.
    And it will all the be result of the extremely high houseprices.

    High house prices has little to do with crime rates, most people would be too tired after working long hours to go out and commit crimes. The biggest factor in the increase in crime rate is boredom. Look at all the larger cities in NSW where house prices are much lower the Sydney but crime rate much higher. Soaring crime rates and binge drinking caused by ….. Gen Y of course. Not FHBs worried of losing their home, not struggling investors but lazy no good schoolies getting wasted and smashing everything in site.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/11/2185836.htm

    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2185412.htm

    Quote:
    I already found a nice place where I would like to settle, I can pay cash for a house over there, I'm not too worried.
    But this whole recession is going to be more dear to many others than me. Unemployment will rise, that's not good for me either is it.

    Any small coastal town with no high schools and mostly older population is a nice place to live. What do you care about unemployment ?If you can pay cash for your place then the dole money will cover daily expenses and you can spend your days at the beach. For extra cash you can always go fruit picking with the backpackers a couple of months a year .

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:

    Awsome name though…. Tumbarumba, just rolls of the tongue.

    Yeah, was going to write Cobar or Wilcannia but that didn't sound right. The RE agents listed on RE.com must be wondering why the sudden interest in Tumbarumba. You think I should write to the council and ask for a carton of VB, for making Tumbarumba famous ?

    Scamp wrote:

    The average houseprice in Tumbarumba is 300.000. Some are way over that.

    Ahhh, you see what a bit of advertising on the right forums can do to prices ? Not to worry, I have a few more for you but don't want to mention them on this forum until you get here.
    Scamp, you're getting greedier by the day and soon you'll be turning into one of us. – an evil specufestor.
    First you wanted something affordable, then you just wanted something nice, now you want 20 -30 acres as well. You could easily pick up the one below for the average worker's income , give it a paint job and then flog it for the 300K you mentioned. Should be the easiest 200K you've ever made.

    Auction Thu 21-Aug-08 4pm

    101 WINTON STREET TUMBARUMBA
    Old 2 bedroom cottage,
    Close to all amenities,
    Lockable shed,
    Block size of 670.3m2,

    Auction – 21 August 2008 – 4.00pm,
    Council Chambers – Bridge Street Tumbarumba.

    http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=o&id=105101610&f=0&p=10&t=res&ty=&fmt=&header=&cc=&c=61959494&s=nsw&snf=rbs&tm=1218075569

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Scamp wrote:
    rates will rise by 0.5 percent this year, and keep going up , and up and up. There's 0% chance of them going down. Oil prices add to the pressure, as inflation is up up up, so interest must go up up up to 13% base rates minimum, which means 18% variable rates.

    These are interesting times, especially when you think a lot of property investors have 20 (!!) properties or more, all NEGATIVELY geared of barely above 0 at their fixed low rates that will jump to 10% in september.
    If those all come on the market, it's carnage like noone has seen before. 80% house price crashes , and houses abandoned because they are too expensive to upkeep.

    So far that prediction of  a 0.5% rise doesn't look good, lets see how September pans out for you.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    crashy wrote:
    anyone have a property that would suit? anywhere around Bris ok. need a min 2.7m height in shed.

    Try posting in the CMCA forum, they may be able to help you out. Otherwise I suggest finishing  the outside bit quickly and do the rest quietly in a caravan park.

    http://www.cmca.net.au

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:

    Tumbarumba is still overpriced.

    How do you figure that out ? The average worker could easily afford to buy there on less then a years income. How is that overpriced ?

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    Scamp wrote:
    We have had 1 rate rise already, and it's still 4 months till Xmas. Plenty of time for another rate rise.
    Be happy if you don't see the other rate rise with current inflation levels.

    What other one ? You were talking about 2 more only recently , did you forget  "love to see 15% next year" and all that…how long ago was that ?

    Quote:
    Apparently things are going worse than I though.

    Hahaha, reminds me of one of your previous optimistic posts. Sorry Scamp but its a classic :

    Scamp wrote:
    Remember that when it takes 1 year to sell your house, you are now selling for the future price ( 1 year from now ). In other words, before you realize the houseprices have dropped, it's too late and you need to drop your asking price not by what everyone else is doing ( if you want to sell ) but at what everyone's selling -20%.

    So , prepare for 50% price drops : The UK housing market is a lot healthier than Australia's housing market, so UK crash can only be shallower.

    It's just that in the UK, people can't afford to work 3 jobs like in Australia.
    And soon, when sickness and stress catch up with Aussies working 100 hours per week just to pay their mortgage interest, they will ask themselves "was it all worth it ?" and then commit suicide or get into crime, or drink themselves to death, or end up in the gutter, or maybe all of the above.

    http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=421321#post421321

    And this is the place you want to move to ? 

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:
    [
    No, I am not Scamp so don't get confused but your misunderstanding of the situation has compelled me to respond. Sydney is unaffordable to average Australians.

    "Nurses, teachers and emergency department workers in Sydney are being forced to buy houses long distances away from their jobs."

    Wow, I'm really sorry for them if they are forced to buy houses. What happened, the rents in the CBD are too high for them ?

    "Of the country's top 10 most unaffordable areas, Sydney has six. With a $2 million-plus median house price, Mosman is Australia's least affordable place. The median house price there is 32 times a police officer's annual earnings – and 40 times for a nurse."

    Wow again, the average nurse or policeman is priced out of that $2M median house in Mosman. That could explain any corruption happening in the NSW police force, they all want to live in Mosman. No wonder the median price is so high over there and would also explain why someone would need a 40 years Easypay Home loan from the "Police and Nurses Credit Society ".

    "On that formula, key workers such as nurses, firefighters, teachers and police officers are effectively shut out of 93 per cent of local government areas in Sydney, meaning they cannot live in many of the communities they serve."

    93% of local government area , that sounds like a lot. Sounds to me like they have to use public transport or a car to get to work. That's tough, I really feel for them.

    "According to research released this week, more than 80 percent of capital city council areas are too expensive for key workers to buy a house, forcing them to move away and face a hefty commute to work."

    So they are shut out of 93% but only 80% are too expensive ? How does that work out ?
    Sounds to me like they've started working on the next pay rise.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:

    Even half those numbers are enough to negate a 'rental crisis'.

    Well if you put it this way then I have to agree with you and Scamp . As long as you have people prepared to make the move to Tumbarumba then yes, there are plenty houses available and there is no rental crisis. Now all you need is to find someone who wants to move there or at least someone we can force to move there as part of a conditional visa approval. Preferably someone working in the IT industry who does not need to commute to work each day and can be productive over a dialup line.

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    ummester wrote:

    I am not Scamp – I don't wear clogs.

     

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:
    Here is an article on the (almost) 900000 empty houses.

    http://www.hotspotting.com.au/index.php?act=viewArticle&productId=351

    Methinks they have mostly been purchased for capital gains (over the past 5 years) but as that is no longer a reality will all find there way back to either the rental market or for sale soon. In some rare cases, the owners may still even sell at a profit if they were purchased long enough ago.

    Thats only the garbage from Census night. Take out the holiday homes and the ones where the occupants didn't want to fill in the Census form and lied about the property being vacant and you'd be lucky to have half that numbers.
    How many posters on this forum completed the last Census correctly  ?

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Scamp wrote:
    Do you think I am an idiot ? many things will be different ( take the weather for instance ).

    Now why would I think that about you ? That's not a very nice thing to say. After all you've done your research and you know the weather is different. BTW, did you know the distance between Hobart in the South and the top of Cape York is more then the distance between Holland and Egypt and as such we have different weather between North and South?

    Quote:
    Sydney is the world's most unaffordable city. And from what I heard, people in Sydney aren't earning what people in Los Angeles ( Hollywood ? ) earn. It's unsustainable.

    Sydney is the world's most unaffordable city, unaffordable to whom exactly ? I haven't seen any stampede on TV so the majority must still be able to afford to live there . Besides, its all relative to your wealth, income and prospects … if you think Sydney is unaffordable for you then it would be silly to buy there, wouldn't it ? There are always affordable alternatives somewhere else, like Tumbarumba for eg.

    http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=o&id=105087144&f=10&p=10&t=res&ty=&fmt=&header=&cc=&c=14751278&s=nsw&snf=rbs&tm=1218012048

    Then again, for someone arriving in OZ with no money or job prospects a house in Tumbarumba would be also look unaffordable, at least in the beginning. Would you say that's because the house was overpriced or only unaffordable?

    Quote:
    Been there, done that. It's just a matter of time before the jobs come back. I've seen it happen in USA , Europe, and soon in Australia too.

    I'm sure you have, I only wanted to bring to your attention that currently the IT guys here are unaffordable and unsustainable. I suspect when they have a wages drop of 50% or more then some businesses will reconsider and if they found it affordable maybe bring back some jobs. But until that time comes they will continue to rent IT guys from India. Why pay silly money for someone to pick his nose and surf the web when for a fraction of that you get someone who comes up with the results ? Don't answer that, it was a rhetorical question.

    Quote:
    On top of this, the houseprices aren't going up for the next 3 years at least.

    Is this prediction coming from the same guy who gave the last tip about 2 more rate rises before Xmas ? Man, If I was you I'd go find him, beat him up real good and get my money back.
    But hey, I see you you're still dreaming so I don't want to wake you up. Enjoy your dreams while they last Scamp.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:
    [

    But what if he's right? Will everyone else retire?

    Sometimes he is a bit harsh but Australian is long overdue for a correction in property prices – I think anyone who can't see that is in denial.

    Scamp ? Is that you playing tricks again ?

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Scamp wrote:
    Australia is a real nice country. Recessions will be everywhere, also in Europe, but they affect mostly people with debts, which we don't have and don't plan to have. Surely, we will lose some cash, who cares, we will build it up again after the recession. The whole point for us to move to Australia is to enjoy the nice weather, the beaches and the relaxed attitude of people.

    Make sure you move to Sydney then. They have some of the most relaxed people in the country because of the relaxation techniques training they do on a daily base, on the way to work and back . The current trends is toward 4 hrs/ day of relaxation and properties as far away from the beach as possible are favored. Something to do with global warming, I think, because the other side of Lithgow seems to be fast becoming a favorite with Sydney workers. You shouldn't have any problem finding lots of properties below cost near CBD and the beaches, up to 50% below market price in some cases.

    Seriously thou, You are more likely to arrive here and find that most aussie IT jobs are outsourced to India and the pay is crap. If you 're looking to buy a place you'll have to compete with a dump truck operator, welder or cleaner working on some mine site in FNQ or NW of WA. He'll make 3-4 times your salary and if that's not enough competition you'll also have investors from Asia who are able to buy with cash, outbid you and hold for the long term. Then your choice will be to buy an "overpriced" property yourself or rent one from the cleaner or investor who outbid you in the first place. If only they could read your warnings about the CRASHING property market. Then while you are waiting for that 40% drop he'll be collecting half your income in rent and use it to pay off the property and even buy another one. After a year or two you'll probably get fat up with waiting for a crash, have enough of the nice weather with forty degrees plus, the beaches you were to busy working to enjoy, the nice people who are foaming at the mouth during a road rage attack and you'll miss your family and friends from back home. If your gf hasn't already left you by then you'll pack up your things and return to Holland wishing you never heard of Australia or Google Earth.
    But don't give up your dream Scamp, we need more cashed up people coming here to buy or rent. It stops the property market from crashing, pushes property prices higher and keeps the recession away.

    cheers

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    Scamp wrote:
    The bottom could be anywhere between 3 years from now, or 20 years from now, depending on how much the government will mess with the whole thing. If the government does things like USA, then Australia is in for a 10 year long depression at least. At that point, the only thing that could potentially extinguish the fire is a massive world war.

    If you truly believe that why bother migrating to AU , wouldn't you be better off staying at home with mum & dad ?

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    ummester wrote:
    Poor renters wont have the money and you may force them onto the streets.

    What am I, a not for profit organization ? They can apply for gov. housing or buy their own place somewhere were they can afford it.

    Quote:
    there exist tenancy advice boards in every state that will protect the rights of tenants if called upon. Have you ever had a tenant take you to the tribunal? You can't change the rent or kick them out till the tribunal has ben held and then they generally rule in favour of the tenant.

    You can’t be forced to subsidize your tenant, not even by a tribunal. If negative gearing is gone the tenant will have to make up for it. Based on a 350K loan and median house prices then a 4x rental increase is probably very close to a fair increase in rent. Which is exactly why negative gearing is here to stay.

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    Scamp wrote:
    I have done the research, and there are 900.000 EMPTY HOUSES. EMPTY… NOT USED… 900.000 !!…

    And just how many of this 900.000 are holiday homes ? There are at least 30 "empty" houses on my street alone and possibly over 200 in the whole suburb. The owners only use them a few weeks a year, Xmas and Easter holidays and occasionally over a weekend or two. They don't mind having up to $1M tied up in them or having to pay for rates,insurance, lawn mowing,etc. and keeping them empty most of the time. There must be tens of thousands of owners with EMPTY houses like these all over the country but I wouldn't count on many of them to come onto the market or join the rental pool any time soon.
    Also, tell me you didn't based your "research" on the garbage collected by ABS during the last Census ?
    You may not be aware of it but in the last 2 decades or so the questions in the Census forms have become more and more intrusive, to the point were on the last one you also had to put down your name. The result of all this invasion of privacy is that now there are a lot more houses "vacant and unoccupied" during a Census night.

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