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  • Profile photo of harbharb
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    Scamp wrote:

    No it's not. It's good for the owners of the mining companies. The shareholders get paid in AUDs.

    Of which they get 30% more.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    devo76 wrote:
    Yes. Visit that site. It will open your eyes but not through the intelligent converstation.Many many disgruntled younglings that have not bought a house yet and want the market to crash so they can buy in.

    Not to mention that half of the posters live overseas, have no clue of anything here other then the BS they chose to read on the net and only seen this country with the aid of Google Earth. They do have plenty of formulas to prove their point , will fake the occasional bad news story if they can't find one and ban anyone even remotely bullish. A bit like some other knowitall in here who seems to be an expert on everything around Australia, from property investing, RBA policies and even politics without even setting foot here yet.
    I wonder if the link is just a crude attempt at recruiting more of their kind because they suffered a few casualties recently. Since the rates started coming down last month a few of the local members who could afford it took advantage of the low prices to become FHBs and have become less active in the movement.

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    Scamp wrote:
    To think that a lower dollar is good for the economy is, to say the very least, ignorant.

    What happened Scamp, did you changed into AUD to early ?
    Just asking because recently you seem more concerned with the 30% AUD fall then the lack of fall in house prices.

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    Scamp wrote:
    AUD dollar is collapsing as we speak. Are you blind ? the dollar went from near 1 USD to 70USD.

    I aways knew you were in denial but now you're getting into the desperation stage as well. What's the matter , our Aussie homes are to unaffordable to you ? Our Aussie dollar just returned to were it belongs, at around 70c. Anything above that was never going to be sustainable, only a fool would think that it was. I told you so last June at the same time I told you we'll be up for a couple of rate cuts before X-mas and mid 5s by next June. Oh noo , there are going to be more rate rises you said. Then you went on about how the banks will NOT pass any of the rate cuts and how by September it will be all over because of the rates resetting. Now instead of admitting you were wrong you are going on about the fall of the AUD by 30%. Well guess what Scamp, that's actually good news for most Aussies. (except for the ones planning a world tour )

    Quote:
    Inflation ( not CPI ) in Australia is close to 15% now. That's rampant. Just check your food bills compared to last year. Please don't tell me you don't pay at LEAST 15% more, because you do.

    Well I don't know about devo but I have found a farmers market where I do most of my shopping and my bills are actually down by 1/3.

    Quote:
    Oil will be 2$ per litre. Especially with the 30 drop in AUD dollar and what's still to come. Fuel might be lower now, the only reason is that recession is hitting the world.

    I'm sure that oil will be $4 one day , just not at the moment since oil has fallen MORE then 30% Anyway, with oil at $2/Lt canola becomes a viable alternative and the oil producing countries will have to use mineral oil for their fish and chips.

    Quote:
    50% houseprice drop : Did I say it would drop 50% in less than 6 months ? Ofcourse not. In fact, I told you that the bottom would certainly not be earlier than January 2009, and with the recent actions by RBA and government, it will take longer because now it changed to a recession instead of an economic dip.
    You will see, 50% houseprice drop will happen.

    So its January 2009 now? What happened to September which was the month we were all going to see the market collapsing ? Doesn't quite work when the new rates are the same or lower the the old ones, doesn't it.

    Quote:

    Dropping interestrates : Yes you are right, I predicted interest rates to go up and they SHOULD have gone up, but they went down.

    Your fault for not wishing it hard enough, next time you have to concentrate harder and hold your breath until it happens.

    Quote:
    This is completely illogical and has caught most economists by surprise. The drops so far in interest have resulted in a 30% ( !!!!! ) drop in the AUD and it just shows that the RBA has no clue on what they are doing.

    Yes, I agree. Stupid RBA doesn't have a clue about the state of the economy but not to worry, Scamp will come to their rescue from Holland. Thanks to Google and the boys at GHPC, most of whom also happen to live overseas, Scam P has the answers to restoring our economy and protecting our AUD.

    Quote:
    Do you think the AUD dropping is a good thing ? Think again. The drop in the AUD is going to cause massive problems for Australia in the short / medium AND long term.

    And what are the problems, can you please name them ?

    Quote:
    Mind you : Dropping interest rates is done for a reason. In 1990 ( you remember, than recession Australia had to have ) RBA dropped interest rates like this. It caused 20% unemployment and loads of trouble for Australia.

    Please, don't speak about things you have no clue about. If you think you were right with the drops of interest rates, this is a very short term, PANIC ACTION by the RBA.

    Excuse me Scamp, 20% unemployment ? Can you please do the same and don't speak about things you have no clue about. In 1990 you probably were somewhere in Holland attending a kindy garden so why pretend you know something about Australia of 1990 ?

    Quote:
    There is no doubt. Recession is coming, commodities ( australia's main export product ) have already crashed on top of 30% loss of the AUD dollar. I'm just telling you like it is, nothing different.

    Scamp, if you had a brain you'd be dangerous.
    Our commodities are priced in USD, a lower AUD makes up for the fall in commodity prices and is good for exporters.

    Quote:
    By the way, I'll let you in on a secret on the real reason the RBA has dropped the interest rates.
    Mortgage resets.

    I hope you did not have to pay for that secret, if you did you better ask for your money back.
    The reason they dropped it is to restart the economy, and the reason for a larger then expected drop is probably because they know the ECB will drop theirs at the next meet by at least 0.5%.

    Quote:
    And guess what ? people won't 'save 200$ per month'. They will go from their locked in low interestrates of 6% to the 'new' interestrates of 8%. They will actually have to pay 400$ MORE than before. Thanks to the mortgage resets.

    What if they were locked in at 7% or more ? Guess what, we'll have another cut before X-mas and yes the banks will pass that one in full.

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    Yes Scamp, house prices only go up and they double every 7 years. Too bad you missed out buying now, by the time you are going to arrive in Australia prices will have gone up by at least 20%. Not to worry Scamp, I can rent you one of my fibro shacks in Wilcannia for $12K a year until you can save enough to buy your own shack. If you make nice with the locals they will respect you and won't touch your valuables or your car.

    Quote:
    Australia's housing crash is going to be worse than America's crash. If you have a mortgage, chances are big you will go bankrupt. Your capital gains over the last 3 years are officially gone already, and the crash hasn't even happened.

    Wow, I have a mortgage and now you are really starting to get me worried about that bankruptcy thing .  I'm worried that if all the migrants they let in these days are loonies like you my  taxes will have to treble and will still not be enough to build all the required mental facilities. Your lot could send the country bankrupt.

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    ummester wrote:

    Seems that way – but you have to wonder why the RBA gave such a big cut?

    Because they know the other central banks are planning to do just that very soon ?

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    Macnatt wrote:
    Can someone pass scamp his medication!!

    A bit late for that,  grab the jumper leads and we'll give him an ECT.

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    ohricey wrote:
    Hi all,

    Total newbie to this and would appreciate any advice – have the opportunity to purchase a property using the First Home Buyers Grant in the next 6 months, but this grant will be unavailable to me after this period.

    Can not afford to buy anything that I could comfortably live in, so my plan is to buy the cheapest unit I can afford, take advantage of the grant, suck up the pain of the first 6 months mortgage plus my rent costs and then either rent the property out or do up and sell on.

    Dilemma is offer will be unavailable to me personally in the near future, so should I go ahead and do this now, go ahead and take the grant and do something else or not take up this option at all during this period of possible instability.

    Sorry if any of the above is confusing! All advice gratefully received.

    No, its not confusing. If it was me and I could afford the current repayments I'd look for a few well priced places in well placed locations and put an offer of at least 10% below asking (not all offers at once ) and see how it went. The best time to get buy a bargain is when the sheep are too afraid to buy and sellers are desperate, if rates are falling a few more times the sellers won't be as desperate to get out and you'll have more competition for the available stock. Just work out the numbers realistically and make sure you can afford the repayments and any extra costs involved in holding it until you can rent it out. Good luck.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Scamp wrote:
    Can you say cheese ?

    Beemster ?

    Quote:
    I'm tired of pointing out I am right. This chart is my last gift to you.

    Scamp, I'm sure you think you are right but so far the rates have gone in the opposite direction you said they would, then you got us all excited about September which btw turned out to be a fizzer, then went in denial about banks passing the previous rate cuts and now you show us charts going back to the time of Burke & Wills and want us to believe that property prices will fall 50%

    Quote:
    I won't feel compassion when I buy your investment property at 50% less than you paid for it, sorry.

    I'm sure you're just saying that and not really mean it and since you gave us such a nice gift I'd like to return the favor.
    Wouldn't you need to get a job first and then a mortgage? If things are going to be as bad as you think then its very likely that there won't be many jobs around and definitely not in IT. With the economy going down fast there will be a lot of cost cutting which means most of the remaining IT jobs will move to Bangalore & Mumbai where a good IT specialist (as opposed to a cyberloaffer blogging all day long ) earns from $9K a year. You could arrive here only to find that you can not get a job, can't get the dole either and have to rent an overpriced dump because you don't have any previous local landlord references. By the time the economy turns around you could end up spending all your house deposit on rent and will not be able to afford to buy a place at any price. I don't have a nice chart to show you but if I'm correct we'll see at least a 20% increase in house prices by the time the economy starts to recover in about 2 years time. Yes the prices are quite high right now and I'm sure you would like to see falls of 50% BUT most of us bought them when they were A LOT cheaper hence they are affordable to us and can ride the storm specially with rates falling and rents rising. Before stepping on that plane think very careful, with world economies collapsing all around you do you think this the right time for you and your girlfriend to migrate to a new country where you'll have to live on your savings while hope to land a job, get a mortgage and buy a house ?

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    alani wrote:
    gold has also traditionally been a hedge bet when inflation has been high.

    You mean like now ? Could it be that gold has lost its traditional shine in recent times ?

    Quote:
    when the credit crisis is over and oil goes back to $150 a barrel, the price of gold will probably go through the roof.

    Sorry but don't you mean through the floor ? When the credit crisis is over and everything goes back to normal what exactly is the point in buying gold ?

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:
    I just can't see the banks lowerring rates from here till the crisis is over –

    Does "from  here" includes that month of October or do we start from next month?

    Quote:
    They way I see it is like a landlord rising rents to keep up with rising costs –

    The way I see it is more like a landlord who lost $1000 at the blackjack table and then puts up the rent to cover his loses. I suspect we'll see RBA drop 0.5% this month and the banks 0.3%

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:
    Are you buying now?

    I hope so, got 2 offers in and I'm 95% confident they accept it.

    Quote:

    The resetting rates started in September and will go on for the next 6 months. Things take a while to happen in the property market, unlike the stock market where the crash is instantaneous.

    Wasn't the turning point in the first quarter of 2008 and September was to be the final straw, or was that something else? How long do you reckon that "while "is in calendar months ? I'd like to mark it up so I know when the market is at it slowest and buy at the bottom .

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    hbbehrendorff wrote:
    Well I could go on to explain why this happens for many pages but I don't have the time at the moment, But the fact is that every bubble bursts, Thats just how it works.

    If you really want to explain it in a short and crude sentence, Bubbles burst because people get to a point where they just can't keep buying things or increasing there debt any longer, people have a habbit of going as far as they can, right to the edge of the cliff so to speak, People start falling off and the ones that are not are struggling to stay on.

    It is at this point that the bs stops and things start to unwind, Once the spring has been contracted so far it will shoot back in the opposite direction, Once that happens you can't just stop it and start pushing it down further again, you have to let it completely run its course before you can start again.

    Sounds wonderful in theory and I'm sure you could come up with formulas to prove your point , too bad life doesn't work this way and people sometimes make irrational decisions.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    hbbehrendorff wrote:
    Precious metals have been used as money since the start of time,

    Actually it was probably sea shells, maybe we should collect them as well ? After all they are as useful and more interesting then a bar of gold or silver.

    Quote:
    they held value thousands of years ago and a few kg's of gold has the same value of a house, I would be interested if you know of any better ways of guaranteed safeguarding of purchasing power in a smaller package, please tell us!

    A bit hard to protect yourself from rain using a gold bar. How would your gold bar do against a tin of baked beans if the economy collapsed and the scenario that you're buying the gold bar as protection against would actually arrive ?

    Quote:
    Gold and Siliver has stood the test of time, Tell me one fiat currency which has done the same ?

    Maybe in the times when gold was used to mint coins. These days its just a crutch for insecure people and if the chips were down your gold bar would be just as useful as a lead bar. But hey, its all about keeping up appearance isn't it.

    Quote:
    Though im sure im wrong again, i will await your response as to which PAPER currency's have lasted throughout the ages.

    No, you are right. If holding gold makes you feel more secure and helps you sleep at night then who am I to say you are wrong. Hoard all the gold you can and good luck to you however if the system fails and currency becomes useless then I don't believe you'll have much use for your bars. Personally I'd rather hold a nice piece of land and if things went bad maybe a few fruit trees, building tools, water purification pills, some fishing gear, etc. Makes more sense then heading for the hills with couple of inedible gold bricks in your backpack. After all, I could swap you a bottle of water for one of your gold bars OR I could wait a few days and just pick it up from your backpack after you died of thirst. Do you see my point ?

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    ummester wrote:
    Because current house prices are unsustainable,

    Could you please explain why do you think that prices are unsustainable ? I keep hearing this phrase thrown around and I'd like to understand why. Is there a infinite freeze on wages or has inflation been banished forever in this country and I haven't heard about it ? Maybe there is a law that says the average house price to wages ratio has to be no higher then 4 to1 ? The price rises may not be sustainable for the moment because of the credit crunch but that's a different story and only temporary.

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    hbbehrendorff wrote:
    I don't want to sound hypocritical to my previous posts but Silver bullion bars might be a better alternative to safehousing your purchasing power then gold

    Hahaha, trying to flog your silver bars in a property forum.  So what  happened, did your silver bars crashed AND found out that  they don't produce any yield ? If you didn't like property should have left your money in the bank instead, at least you'd be getting all of it back plus some interest for your trouble. Now you are left with  something that can only be used as door stoppers, at least until the next time there is panic and rednecks decide to head for the hills loaded with baked beans and silver.

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    devo76 wrote:
    Things will recover quicker than most realise then of we go again.

    Then 1-2 years down the track the bears will look at spring 2008 and wish they bough while the prices were so low. Bloody specufestors beat them to it again and caused housing to again be unaffordable.

    I think I just bumped into one of them today. This guy was looking at buying a house in Perth in early 2001 before deciding to listen to experts who were sure that prices have reached the peak and were likely to stay flat or even fall a few % over the next few years. He rented a flat in Freo for $120/week while waiting to save more of a deposit and maybe for prices to fall a bit. Bumped into him this morning and he is still renting the same flat only @ $240/week and a rent rise is in the wings, he is now hoping for a crash so he could maybe buy a flat. And boy does he wish he bought a house back in 2001 when the priced "peaked".

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    ummester wrote:

    Chinese buyers may just be a Melbourne thing… not to be racist myself, but everytime I have been to Melbourne I have noticed that there are more asians compared to other cities.

    Not really, its the same in Perth. I've been to a few open houses in the $800K -$1,200k range recently and there is definitely some interest from Singaporeans looking for cheap investment / holiday homes.

    Quote:

    Therefore they have invested heavilly to fund thier own retirements (which makes sense) but in doing so have created an asset price bubble that is curently bursting.

    If the asset (primarlily property) bubble doesn't burst soon, there will be hell to pay in 10 to 15 years when all the boomers start selling en mass, downsizing or just spending the fruits of their investments.

    So which one is it ?

    Quote:
    As it is I think we are going to see bigger percentage drops on bigger properties because pressure is already causing people to downsize. Always remember, 9% is the countries average long term interest rate.

    Sorry to burst your bubble unmester but the fact is that interest is coming down and we won't see 9% for a very long time. If the crash did not happen with rates going up then there is FA chance of a crash with rates falling. (yes I know, the banks will not pass them on. )
    The percentage "drops" that you are talking about are mostly an illusion caused by the fact that a larger then average properties under $400k have been selling well (thanks to the higher rents) while the upper end stalled. Some who bought 2-3 years ago may not have been prepared for the many rate rises we had and had to sell at cost , a few repo's even below cost, but with rates falling that's mostly over. As I said before, unless a house sells for less then the previous selling prices there is no real price fall, we had the 0.xx% fall we had to have so I hope the bears enjoyed the property "crash" while it lasted . LOL
    As interest rates continue to fall over the next 1-2 years and people start to upgrade once again you should see property prices returning to the average upwards trend. Or maybe you think that this time will be different ?

    BTW, what happened to all them mortgages resetting in September that were supposedly going to cause a property crash ?

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    ummester wrote:
    There are some things the government can't stop and some things, if it is forward thinking enough, that it will allow to happen.

    Like letting assets devalue, for instance. Federal governement can't come out and say, "I have the solution and it is a 30% devaluation of all material assets across the board."
    .

    No, of course not. But they can devalue our dollar by 30% when compared with foreign currency and increase wages by 30%. Instant defacto devaluation by 30% and everyone is kept happy.

    Regarding your previous comment on keeping 300k in the banks,

    "No need to be worried: your bank deposits are as safe as, well, houses"

    http://business.theage.com.au/business/no-need-to-be-worried-your-bank-deposits-are-as-safe-as-well-houses-20081002-4ssp.html

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    ummester wrote:
    When are you going to admit that the only way globalized banks with a lot of dangerous debt can make good in a dire economy is by raising rates?

    How would they make good if by raising rates they can only end up with a higher default rate ?

    Quote:
    What would you preffer, Australia to be like America, or 15% mortgage rates? I know which one I'd go for.

    USA all the way ?
    What's with that 15% stuff , you've kept all your savings in cash and now hope to make up for missing the property boom ?

    Quote:
    As for ANZ… what does that word 'May' mean to you?

    is it the same as the word "could" from your link ?

    Quote:
    Besides, I am 75% certain that NAB and ANZ won't survive the brewing depression. Safe loans are going to be with Commonwealth or Westpac and, no, i don't work for either. Don't even like them, let alone have a vested interest. It's just that they have more local investments and, though exports are slowing with China's economy, they will pick up again in the next 5 years or so.

    Do you think that writing down a couple of hundred mill is going to make so much difference to the bottom line that they'll go under when they make a yearly 4 billion+ profit ? Just because they cry poor doesn't mean its true or you should believe them, the return on the dollar they make is higher then Telstra's in the 1990's and they invented legalized robbery.

    Quote:
    Anyways, if you are a clever investor and have not over-leveraged yourself, you should be fully prepared for rate rises of up to 20%. That's around the highest they have hit in Oz before.

    Hahaha , only 20% ? Why not 30% or 50% ? Screw that, maybe I'll just buy a shotgun, lots of baked beans and go hide in the hills until the depression is over.
    We have no Zimbabwe like inflation, the economy has slowed down faster then expected so the obvious move for the RBA will be to lower the rates. Oh yeah I know, the banks will not pass them on. Stop dreaming of 20% rate, the times when you could put 1 million in the bank and live like a king on the interest earned are over. These days you either make your money work or get used to a 5%-6% return , which after you paid tax on and allow for inflation is more like 0%.

    Quote:
    Of course, investing in property, you would have done your homework and realise that 8-9% is the countries long term average rate, right? 4-5% was an extremely low point. Surely you wouldn't have been too greedy and bitten off more than you can chew?

    You'd be surprised how much I can chew.

    "Bite off more than you can chew and then chew like hell." – Peter Brock

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