Forum Replies Created
- Originally posted by kingbrown:
gmh – which city are you investing in? why?
Who is predicting China will bust? When? Why?
Sydney, land bank 5 acres 30min from CBD (on a good day)
Commercial, I am the tennant, will sell when I retire (tax free cap gain….) and feed my super fund around 100K per year.As for China. heard a long term econmist, (on ABC I kind of rely on them a lot) one of the guys who predicted the Asian meltdown of the late 90’s, who gave the reasons why China will stall, and that is why the long term foecasters have been predicting rate rises etc peaking around 2007-2009, Also mentioned that cost of Chinese labor had doubled, can’t remember if whether it was one year or two.
Question for you on topic when do you think WA will peak.
Kp, good points, if that is your research and you are comfortable with your investment profile, then that is what it is all about.
Research alternatives, risk anaylysis, comfort level, opportunity cost, greater risk usually equals greater return etc.
Happy investing
Sorry kingbrown, but still don’t get your point
China slows down = Perth slowing down = Bust
Property market topping out = building slowing down=negative wealth effect=bust
I can go on and on.
Busts tend to follow booms, still can’t get why your point is relevant.
My figures based on income / med price, Perth is way over priced
Dosn’t mean that it may not double again next week, but right now, it is overpriced,
Originally posted by kingbrown:Picking one dodgy statistic to make a point is SO last year.
Fun facts :
WA produces 40% of Australia’s export revenue. Yes, forty percent.
In other words, Perth bust = AUSTRALIA BUST.
Yes, …. your point is ????????????
[
When you travel internationally, you will find that even Sydney ( or Australia) doesn’t rate on the world stage as being newsworthy.Hmmmmmm …. guess thats why when you look at LA ,NY, Tokyo, Paris amd London, one of them has dropped out of the the five most expensive cities in the world to make way for Perth
(Based on income to med property price)ABC current affairs dedicated their first 45 minutes (1 hour ) of the Midday bulletin covering the crash in Sydneys outer west.
Not a slump a crash, property selling for 850K at castle Hill by owners eventually sold for 680k by Bank who would no longer wait.
Some agents say 50-90% of auctions are Mortgagee but banks are instructing agents not to disclose the fact,
One agent said worse he had seen at the fairfield area in 32 Years.
Another agent in Bankstown said he had seen more forecloseures in 6 months than in previous 16 years.One agent said foreclosures is his main business now, done 25-30 in last 6 months but only 15 sales.
Properties selling for half of the boom price is a recurring theme.
Sheriff turning up with locksmith and agent and simply putiing people in the street, with the clothes they are wearing and what they can pack in less than an hour.
40K families are in arears with their loans and most are refinancing hoping the market will turn.
Banks are mostly okay as most covered by loan insurance.
ABC were asked to leave two pre auction inspections.
AND ………………………. we will probably get a new rise tomorrow, just heard job vacancies are up. Got to cool the economy somehow.
Reminds me of 1991. The 17% was actually on felt by a few, a lot were happily sitting on 11% and were benefiting from the effect 14% inflation had on houses.
Not a lot hurting, but enough to kill Sydney market.
Are we there yet…think we are.
Geeeeeeeeeee I hope they are bringing there own water with them
Oh had been wondering why ……. this time … Perth is different.
And what has been driving the economy. Mining, not yet, WA still has a infrastructure lock that has yet to be addressed. Quote ABC mid day news last month
What has been driving your economy is the building. People are coming into to your building industry, and for each one who comes in to work, they create the need for more accomadation. The cycle just keeps going.(again ABC midday news)
Yes Perth might pass Sydney as higher median price, but from figure available Perth average incomes have still a way to go. And finally what rental return are Perth investors getting, and based on that are the people still buying investors or speculators.
Now on that I have no hard figures only snap shots here and there, so maybe you can help ???
Oh had been wondering why ……. this time … Perth is different.
And what has been driving the economy. Mining, not yet, WA still has a infrastructure lock that has yet to be addressed. Quote ABC mid day news last month
What has been driving your economy is the building. People are coming into to your building industry, and for each one who comes in to work, they create the need for more accomadation. The cycle just keeps going.(again ABC midday news)
Yes Perth might pass Sydney as higher median price, but from figure available Perth average incomes have still a way to go. And finally what rental return are Perth investors getting, and based on that are the people still buying investors or speculators.
Now on that I have no hard figures only snap shots here and there, so maybe you can help ???
Originally posted by zen1:
[brI don’t know if it will have a lot of impact in WA though.If it doesn’t then they will just keep coming.
“After all, this whole mess is just the fault if those greedy arragont @#$$% in WA”
“Good idea John, but maybe we should leave out the #$%%^ next Wendnsday….how about a new tie..the pink will go nicely
Two pieces yesterday struck my attention.
First was by the ?????? Institute, which said home loan affordabilty has hit a three year low and is now comparable with the good old days of 17%. …oh the memories ( I hit 19% myself)
Other was from the REI that said if parents could sell their grandchildren into indentured service on the futures market then these new home buyers may finally be able to afford to get into the property market, and that the Government should set up the appropriate futures market ASAP, ……… sorry just re read it, it was that should be allowed to use their super.
That makes sense…super worth 25K, goes towards house, all developers raise their price 25K tomorrow…. well it worked with the first home owners grant…
Can’t blame them for trying
Ahhh what did they say, Lies, Dammed Lies, Statistics and the REI
I think the biggest issue they should look at is the bogus depreciation schedules produced by developers flooging their products.
Have seen units bought for $150,000 from a developer with $133,000 in depreciable costs and capital allowances.
Hmmmm $17,000 to cover land, profit and selling fees.
Don’t think so.
Mentioned to a ATO guy who admitted they were aware of it.
This property is starting to figure “large ” in my life, so I am guessing that I may get to the bottom of this eventually.
Just have a bad feeling over this and it is getting worse.
Will update on this 56.25% CRASH !!!!!!!!!!!! …. later
Originally posted by wealth4life.com:
[– nett worth over 5 mill – more than 5 properties –
Well wealth … finally fixed the abacus for the fifth time, (those cheap south east asian sweat shop strings arn’t worth a damm) and whipped off the shoes and soxs, …… and the results are…..close, …..maybe if I hadn’t wasted so much on abacus strings….
Now how do you want to define close……
Kicking this one round last night, I think I may have a guess at what happened.
Bought for 2.4Mill, substantially over the then market.
Contract made for 3.2Mill
Valuer comes on board, together, with solicitor, vendor, broker
Banker gets sucked in and lends to 70%.
BINGO.I could be wrong, but just a feeling after the “on the run comments”
I heard…Now I know that stuff never happens…….
Originally posted by Mikey P:What area did this all take place? Anything $2M or below for Ocean front multi unit site on main land Australia is an absolute steal!!!
It was a public auction, well advertised, lots of attendance, guess the locals must disagree…
Yep mortgagee in possesion, (I think I spelt two out of four right there..), my client asked them at 1.30M whether they really wanted to sell it as they would not put it on the market. Went on the market and bingo…SOLD.
Valuation the agent had was 1.7Mill, guess the local valuations now need to be revised….
Gotta screw a lot of battlers to make up 2Mill
3.2mill plus agents comm, plus hold costs for period while mortgage not serviced for 4 months etc, reckon they dropped 2Mill.
Bet there is a valuer out there now being trial fitted for a pineapple….
Foundie… I thought I was the only one who felt like that….
Agree, a hell of a lot of people down the hole who deserve it more..
Yeah wealth, I think we are now seeing the turn. In Sydney, the market leader (up….then down) has had almost all negative press from the conservative Sydney Morning Hearald.
This weekend the Tele the faithful mag of the greater west, ran a cover storey and two pager on the new home buyers (with plasma…..they just had to get that in ) who are approaching charities for aid. made the radio news late saturday, and tv sunday night.
Now who would have thought that people who could not even save a deposit, could not afford 100% finance PLUS, be able to afford to furnish it on credit card.
Now of course they new it would be hard to start, BUT if they didn’t get in now (1983-1984) they would be priced out forever !!!!!!!!!!!
How long before some of these people sitting on negative equity beleiving all the REI hype that “the market will recover next year, but with ONLY MODEST GROWTH OF 10%”. just give up and walk off.
How long before dad hitting his head against a wall he can’t climb, finds some other women who does not “winge about lack of money all day”, how long before the wife moves home with the little kiddie, because HE is
a) drinking
b) no fun any more ……always talking about money
c) no fun anymore ……..always tired (works 20 hours per day)
d) abusive (see drinking and stress above)
e) she leaves with the boarder they put in to pay some bills
f) and my favourite ……she takes up a new relationship with the boarder ..who is much more understanding about how lonely she has become…..see the working 20 hours per day….and they make hubbie move out…..although he still has to pay maintenence !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!And if you think (f) is joking…. I spent an hour with the guy one day….not much fun….
So as to the perenial question of ….. “are we there yet” ( bottom), no kiddies not by a long way…..sometimes life is more interesting than good tv.
Originally posted by simple:Property prices ripple.
If the cellar dwellers loose then it ripples through the rest of the system.
It ripples up and ripples down.
If the interest rate pressures the bottom end, and it really is, then it does not matter whether I fixed at 1% for the rest of my childrens lives, the price of my real estate will be directly effected and indirectly by a slowing economy.
Heard from another profesional that some of the lenders are getting nasty surprises in Sydneys west on the foreclosures.
They cannot understand how, considering the income declared, these people got into so much difficulty SO FAST (before a rate rise actually BIT) ….. okay before you reply……I am laughing my head off as I type…….but how the properties were ever VALUED at so high a price,Maybe some of our forum brokers could share with us there trade secrets.
