Forum Replies Created
Guess I’ll be odd man out and say I am sitting.
Looking at a very big portfolio lift after a bit of shuffling of my super (sell a commercial to my fund to get my hands back on MY money…) but as I am only going to buy in Sydney and surrounds I will be waiting till next next year, the market here has just started the slide think it will keep going judging by the amount of for sale signs
etc.,People will judge you no matter what. My wife and I used to visit Peppers at Terrigal (when it was called Peppers) When we started staying there we lived at Peakhurst Sydney, (a lot a fibro housing commission for those who don’t know it ). We were quite surprised how the reception and other staff treated us when the sddress changed to Glenhaven (up in the Sydney Hills)
Another eg was when we put our eldest in Kings, when he was 16. The first question from other parents was not what school did my son used to go to, but what school did I go to ?????Unfortunatley not being ex GPS I kind of felt excluded (and it was not subtle )
People if you are different to them they will let you know it.
On property I don’t tell anyone cause its none of their business, also learnt my lessons the hard way (see above for eg )
For all you young and enthusiastic investors, cheers, and don’t let em get you down.
Originally posted by georgisj:3.” Tax cuts are likely in the Federal budget, big spending package (which is both parties policy), so there is going to be an injection of government spending into the economy.”
Granted but will it be enough to counter households contracting spending, when their paper wealth evaporates.
“Not withstanding the slow but emerging trend of a strengthening world economy.”
Hmmmmm did’nt China last week hint at increasing rates to dampen their economy. Lets see slower China less demand for Minerals how will that effect us ????
“Crash is an overly emotive term. There is empirical evidence of slowing or even price reductions, but those who have a long-term investing time horizon…Water of a ducks back.”
How long do you expect a flat market to last. months years, close to a decade maybe.If inflation occurs and prpty stagnates arn’t investors going backwards.??
Something to consider is the price of Petrol. last petrol crunch was 1974. It changed the world, and lead to a inflation spiral that ran for almost two decades.Remember the interest rates that fixed inflation.
Maybe inlation will be encouraged, to fix the mess that the last two asset bubbles have left???“Will there be opportunities to purchase? “
When ????
” But unless there is a dramatic negative shift or impact in the economy, external or domestic, we are not looking at a early 90’s style recession or price stagnation.”
No we are looking at 2003 and we are all (myself included) guessing.On my way to work today (there are other ways to make money than property) I was amazed at the number of half built apartments, and town houses plus holes in the ground in the Sydney Hills area.
Now I know we are told that Sydney has XXXXK ppl moving here each year, and that prty always goes up, and if you do your research you will be okay, or buy cf+ you can’t lose (hav’nt you lot worked out the myth there yet ) and that now is the time to buy bargains, or that Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane NZ or some country town I have never heard all have room for growth before they catch Sydney
BUT Sydney’s market is totally out of wack with current supply and demand, and returns based investing. Something will happen, either a crash, or a LONG period before growth.
When Sydney booms Australia Booms, when we drop….
It will depend on the impact of a drop in consumer spending that will now accompany, the mental adjustment ppl make when their paper wealth shrinks.
If the economy shrinks a little because of this then prty corrections may become more severe.
On the + side we have a smart, Reserve, on the – side we have pollies who are only interested in their next five minutes of fame.
I believe it will be a slow deflation in values that cld hang around for yrs.
Beleive the land component in high demand areas will do okay (sort of ) but prty sold with a high Bldg component, Units, Town Houses the Kellyville McMansions, will suffer more. Remember Cherrybrook has barely doubled since 1992 and it still has not shaken the taint of “the Devorce capital of Sydney “
This opinion is based on Sydney, but here is where the Boom started and it has trickled around the country from here. Here is where the downturn will start, and no matter how positive ppl from Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane etc are, you will all follow.
Will be interestingOriginally posted by Monopoly:I am correct in thinking you are living in the house in question at the moment?????????
If so, you are not going to be subject to any CGT and the person who advised you to sell it to yourself/put it in a trust is a moron !!!!
Jo
Not sure about your advice. If you live in your OWN home then your PPOR would be exempt. But as the Trust is a separate legal entity bound by its Trust deed, can’t see how it could be OWNED by the occupiers, and therefore exempt.
As to the other part, yeah a no brainer, a complete misuse of a Trust.
Not so sure about your Qld prediction, though with the retirement of the Boomers soon you may be right.
The bigger problem will be if all the ppl spending up on the “Big TV ” suddenly realise they were never as rich as they thought, when the paper profits on their houses (PPOR) disappear.
Even bigger is the boomers who left it all to the last minute believed the gurus bought their “three” city units and have their savings decimated when they have to bail for a loss.
Wonder what hokie Fed grant we will see crop up next, to support the mess they helped start.
I hope we are wrong.
Had lunch with a Liquidator last week and he mentioned that building contractors are fast becoming his biggest clients.
During Sydneys Boom a lot of them acquired new Vehicles & plant and put on staff to give them the capacity to meet demand. The Develupas (hope I pronounced that right…) are slowing down and their payments are slowing down with them, even where work is ongoing.
Advice is pay out the staff or the unions will never let you back in, and drop the company.
Should be interested viewing.
Hope China dosn’t slow its economy too much, cause we are going to need the mineral boom to keep our economy ticking ahead
Question for Sydney is when, not where.
The Fin Review (or Australian ) last week ran a piece on a I think it was called the Maestri, a new development with “magnificent views of Darling Harbour “, a Trigibuff development with a group of properties in this block auctioned recently by McGrath.
A one bedder bought in 2002 for 425,000 top bidded at $360,000 now on the market for $399,000
and a “beutiful 2 Bedder” bought for $825,000 that did not attract a bid, now on the market for $690,000. Both originally bought by a NZer.As the rent guarantees are now dropping away, it might be the tip of the iceberg we keep hering about.
Oh yeah, the same article quoted numerous agents all saying that the had no problem selling their properties, yeah right.
This is not tax advice, but you may have issues with your principal residence being exempt from Capital gains.
Live in the Nth West of Sydney (Glenhaven). Saw my first front page “prices property slump headline ” yesterday in the local paper. Interviewed numerous agents who were telling tales of price drops, a market peak of Oct Nov 2003 and how some agents will go to the wall.
Also performed the function of “correcting sellers expectations ” by providing the info on the new selling environment.
Told a tale of a block of land in Kellyville for sale for $600,000 !!!!! (guess its 600 approx sq mtrs)that won’t sell. WONDER WHY.Perception will become reality.
Originally posted by investron:I thought I would get it valued at the total I would get for selling the blocks, eg; $500,000 and pay stamp duty on that, which is a lot less than the tax would be.
If you can find a valuer who will give a bogus valuation, cause thats what it is, while guessing you want it for the ATO and he dosn’t want half your profit pass him onto me.
Your property has one value, unsubdevided, and one value when it does. You may get him to push the valuation up to the high side, but past that and he is putting his head on the line for your profit.
good luck
If brand new, then the builder developer often (afterall he has the records of the costs ) has prepared one, as a selling incentive.
From experience, schedules prepared by the developer/builder are a lot more generous than a QS.
Not saying QS are wrong, more that developers are creative with the schedules.
Get your solictor to rattle the builders cage.
I was under the impression that. the market was settling and had slid off the top.BUT last weekend in Dural sth of round cnr, 5 lots of acreage went off. Council has said absolutley no development for 25+ yrs, and 4 out of 5 went for 2mill+, with a top of 2.8m.
All blocks but one were vacant.
They’re record prices for the area folks, morale to storey is not all markets are the same. Know your market.He sells happiness. Tells people they can be wealthy and for weeks months or years they get to belive it.
Then reality hits. But for a while they felt they could be millionaires.
Agree on the “Noodle Bar”, that amount of effort for around $30,000 to $40,000…..????In Glenhaven we are having a lot of Sep 5s, and the last block with knockdown was $2.1M.
Agree about the zoning though, I think it will be like the land south of Blacktown.Ordinary 5 acre block in Glenhaven, (about 40 min drive on a Sunday morning from the Harbour bridge, )just went for $2,100,000. Others are more expensive depending on whether they come with a mansion. It also depends on your zoning, we are still zoned rural .
(??????)They will all be residential eventually just depends when.
Of course if someone wants to pay us $5,000,000 we will say okay. Hey if you can pay up in 60 days we will give it away for S4.50M
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][][]Originally posted by cpmj28672:.
Can anyone enlighten me about historical property busts. I know Sydney had a downturn in 1989-90 where across the board a drop in housing prices of around 13% occurred but this was on the back of a 40%+ rise the year before.
Over the past 25 years this has been the greatest “correction” so why does the current climate fear such a drastic downward turn in prices?
Personally back in the Gold Coast boom of the early eighties I had clients buy units OTP at $160,000 expecting to flip a profit who could not sell them for more than $80,000. (Real storey guy was exec TNT )
Back in the early 1990’s Carla Zampatti paid around 3.8M for a property and sold for around 2.6M. Can’t remember exact figure but was a loss of 1.1M on a buy of less than 4M. Heard pleanty of other drops of 25%.Your figure may be overall, but individually some ppl got slaughtered.
Now was that Boom bigger than the current ????
In early December Helen and I spent a quiet weekend in Nelson Bay, resting and reading. On the same day I read the finacial Review, dooming & glooming on property. Nowhere to go but down !!!
Sydney Morning Herald predicted next year, thanks to their source, the REI, that units would go up 5% and houses 11%, presumably Sydney or NSW.
Guess which paper survives on paid advertising (RE ).
I believe the Wentworth Courier (Sdney east Suburbs )in October had enough real estate sales that it looked more like a telephone book than a paper.
A lot of ppl have a vested interest in keeping the prty juggernaut rolling
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