Forum Replies Created
Beleive if your distribution is a gift then you will tick off the right boxes.
ATO does not like it so you may get a visit. My client did. You will need to prove payments are physically made.
No guts no glory
Foundation I keep listening to that tinkling, last time I heard it thought it was broken glass. Now I realise it is champange glasses tinkering from far off Perth.
As to the valuation on Richmond I am afraid I am with him buddy, any townhouse with a deep ocean mooring has got to be worth 800K.
It did have a deep ocean mooring didn’t it ?????
Originally posted by tony wpb:Hello gmh454, where are did you get this statistic on growth?
Tony that was nice analyisis. I have absolutley NO FAITH in NSW govt when it comes to Urban planning. Our peak hour roads prove that. and you have not improved that faith one bit.
Now as to my statistic.
It is a 500k price for a fibro in late 2003 that should have quadruled in 14 years (2017) so in 11 years it is worth 2M. Wonder what I could rent it for, maybe 600 a week ????
Bad attempt at humour, Foundation does that to me, though I always enjoy his posts…seriously I really do..
Okay just heard the housing figures for the last 1/4, assume that was June and the proerty market was UP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 3.1%.
Breaks down into Sydney being up 1.4%, with Perth 12%!!!!!!
Perth actually has 25% for the year.
So its official WHAT CRASH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wish they would tell it to the ppl of western Sydney, sure it would make em happier.[hmm]
Originally posted by foundation:Quote:[uh, let’s see, 1 house equals…. Oh, 1 house! Same as 300 years ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Damm you Foundation if I cannot sell my 3 bed fibro in Wentworthville for 2M in 11 years it will be YOUR fault.
Missed you[biggrin]
Originally posted by tony wpb:.
All of these ‘property guru’ investment tips on how to make millions from cashflow positive properties, is a simple ploy to encourage investors into an area , as they are selling the properties and cashing in on the capital growth.
Cruel, brutually, cruel ……..but true.
Derek read your piece and understand your points but, still disagree. Until now public sentiment has been positive and interest rates are at all time (last 30 yr lows) yet the market, by your own account sliped 12%.
Public sentiment last week had the largest drop in 15 yrs. Hmmmm…. Paul help me here what happened in 1991???
The pain in Syndey is not well spread but localised in the West, where petrol and interest rates are hurting the aspirational “battlers” that swept “honest John” to power at the last election.
Many have been holding on properties in areas where prices have slipped, in my street alone about 33% (2M down to 1.5m after 200k on reno…sorry thats 33+%). many thought that the market will recover, because that is the news, and if public sentiment is that the market is recovering next year, then a artificial ceiling was put in place.
Think that ceiling has cracks and as rates rise world wide (and I know you and me fixed for 5 years and we are laughing… but they did not…they are hoping they go back down) they will hurt more.
As more have to accept whatever bid they can get in a quiet market, then the price percetion will not be “wow how cheap was that”, but you paid “that Much !!!!” .
And Tony, Sydney had negative pop growth last year, so the ” need more land for the growing pop” may be smoke mirrors and more hype.
Okay here, this is a hard one.
If you look at Sydney housing affordabilty it is correcting daily. For the first time in 7 years good old market forces will straighten it out. No GST to create super demand for materials pre 01/07/00 and no first home owners grant to placate winging builders afterwards. Good old market forces will fix it.
Now is that a good thing for “honest John”. Don’t think so. Because when market forces finish and the battlers of western sydney, “honest Johns” aspirational voters realise there homes are not the retirement nest egg they were lead to believe there will be …….unfortunate ramifications……. is it too late to blame Costello…..hey he was treasurer…..maybe John can break out the “i’m with stupid T-shirt” during the next parlimentary sitting..
Quote:Originally posted by Persian Kitten:ghm 454 in what ways is perth different? Or is that a really dumb question? [blink]
[/quote)
Only because persian kittens give me a warm fuzzy image I will avoid the humourous reply that is normally forthcoming.
In the early 1980s the explosion of RE in the Gold Coast was different
In the dot com boom the sharemarket was different and did not obey the normal curve.
During the last Sydney boom ,it was not a bubble as this time…..(fill in explanation skewed towards whatever the seller was selling) it was different (three million ppl were moving into my suburb each week !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)What do they all have in common is they crashed.
Proponents of Perth say it is different driven by different levers, but it has the same in common with the above three, speculators greed, supported by quazzy logic,
Some will say I am wrong about Perth today,…… bet I am right tomorrow.
Originally posted by queengucci:From what ive been reading Sydney in some aspects has ALREADY crashed.
Am I right in saying that prices have been falling for the past 7 years?
And investors paid DOUBLE for a property that they can now only sell for half the price?
I think you might be wrong on all accounts.
Think the breaking of glass can only now be heard.
A crash only happens when it becomes common public perception.
Until now the common percetion has been
we are soft landing
we have hit bottom
the market will recover next year
there was a .00000000000000000000001% gain last month.When the property percetion is that buying real estate is like killing an albertross and when Paul Clitheroe comes back on TV telling us that if we had only invested $10 in shares 40 years ago you could now buy the Cayman islands, only THEN will we have hit bottom.
Ohh sorry forgot to mention….Perth is different
Originally posted by mathewc73:I cant believe anyone would buy a house in St Claire for 450k!
I can’t believe that you guys don’t see the bargain here.
Bought for $450K2003, it will be around $900K in 2010,(doubles every 7 years) so if you bought it for $260K in 2006 it will go up $160K each year a return of 61% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What a bargain !!!!!!!!!
I think you may be a little premature. We in Sydney are still slumping, and it looks like we have a little way to go. As Perth is still growing our Nat’l figures are skewed, and technically we are stagnant.
At the moment I will sit and wait, my next investment gets cheaper every day.
As Sydney lead on the way up, maybe it will lead on the way down.
Know many think Perth has two years to go and will hit 20-25% a year, so can anyone pick when a property in Perth 10 klms out of CBD centre will pass its Sydney counterpart. As we go down, and Perth goes up it must be getting close.
What will Perth do next.
Public sentiment hit a 5 year low but of more interest was that it is the biggest shift in this indicator in 15 years.
Hmmmm what happened 15 yrs ago…Paul can you remember ???
Rich people are ones who have more than I. (those greedy bastards)
I will never be rich, no matter what I have,…..but I am “comfortably well off ” ….
Originally posted by grossrealisation:4.So in other words I have hit the wall. Do I just let the banks take the properties off me and go into bankruptcy
never think this the wall is some thing to get over, you just need the help to do it, the banks don’t just take property they want to help you out just as much as you, they want there money back and bankruptcy is the last resort and from me looking from here thats not at this stage at this time.Sorry Gross but my experience with banks is this
once it winds up in the chase section the guy who is chasing wants it off his desk and closed before it gets any worse and he can be blamed for a bad situation getting worse under his stewardship.
He will wrap it and pack it as quick as he can.
Nothing personal, business is business.
have been in and around liquidators for a while, and your local manage may try to help you to save his butt, but once in collections, watch out
Thanks for the reply Damon appreciate your time.
Interesting times ahead, more so I think with the economy rather than property.
Damon okay, if the rise does not lead to
increased unemployment
decreased consumptionthen you may be right
As to ….”investors have to pass on the increased cost” I thought supply and demand would make such a possiblity irrelevant.
What has a landlords problems got to do with renter A and B outbidding each other for house C.Damon have you seen this in practice yet …
Wealth just put another reply in your other biggie on Rent.
I think the “if interest rates rise: rents go up” is based on “less rental property available,” but ignores what happens post slump.
Think it’s part of the mantra.
You know the one
1. Property doubles every seven years
2. When rates go up you have lots of opportunities
3. Rents rise when rates go up
etc etcThe really interesting thing, is borrowing for duplexes townhouses is rising while house borrowing has been falling. Not sure what to take out of that …we will see
Originally posted by kinkso0o0o:Ok, so what if the interest rates rise and the property market softens or bursts.
2. Rents rise
Damon
Damon I will ask you WHY.
Have asked that on this site before, without answer.
Why will rents rise in a slump, …
Building industry slides…
people stop spending…negative wealth effect
higher unemployment
uncertainty about jobsBUT rents rise
Your rationale please.
Gross I hear that mantra here all the time.
Two years ago it was the “property doubles every 7 years”
Now its ” if rates rise it gives the investor lots of opportunities”
Any chance some of our gurus have come up with either of these.
I’m an investor and I am looking. Have my areas penciled in and doing research. BUT in the Sydney market I can’t see myself buying for maybe three to four years. I will wait till I see some sign the market can move forward. Oh yeah in the rest of Australia, well I am sure there are opportunities but think you can do better than Australian property for a while.
Oh yeah my favourite from the 90s was Carla Zamparti, who paid 3.6m for a property and sold it for 2.6m. about two years later.
Thats gotta hurt
