So after reading the 13 pages of comments & thoughts in relation to these central QLD areas, it appears that many are very bullish about the region. & rightly so given the areas performance over the last few years! But the recent numbers relating to our trade deficit should be ringing some alarm bells with many of you I would have thought. I’m sure that what i’m about to mention has all been included as part of your DD anyway….

Please allow me to put on my little bear hat for a moment, so I can offer a few thoughts.

With Iron Ore & coal pricing coming off their peaks, a softening in china, a global downturn, skyrocketing $AUD, & environmental concern may all act simultaneously to cool this current boom. This is alongside local manufacturing & construction slumps, a tightening finance sector, national softening in housing, teetering unemployment, lacklustre government direction will no doubt continue to stifle business development & economic growth moving forward. It appears we have a resources sector providing most of the strength in the balance BUT when & how will this current boom bust?

As a result, tourism & retail have their pants well around their ankles & all the government seem to be doing at the moment is whinge about one other…nothing new there really.

There appears to be growing concern that may affect the mega bucks pouring in to these proposed projects also, & that is the momentum of an environmental campaign. For a moment, imagine the government imposing a moratorium on all port expansion due to the negative impacts on the reef. Abbott point expansion for example, has now had the decision for its expansion pushed back to late this year, for those that missed this snippet of news in the fin today.

All these bearish indicators alone may not significantly impact of the current operations as a whole, but project all of these impacts further down the track, at what point do mining companies / China / India / Japan flick off the switch? Trading partner coal caps? How many of those $billions of proposed mines will actually get up if port expansions don’t get a go ahead? What happens when resource trade deficits impact so heavily on GDP & coal / Iron ore operations actually contract? I know it’s bearish & there will be many argue that thermal coal will see us through, but Australia certainly is not the only continent with deposits. It’s turning into a very expensive one though…

My bear hat is off now. in case you were wondering.