So we’ll definitely do our dough today and hope to make it up later.

You been reading Homer Simpson’s ‘How to Grow Rich by Loosing Money”…. go on you can tell us

The Freckle

The ol’ spend a dollar to save 25 cents trick eh. Sounds like a plan.

The Freckle

(Bold type = Quotes from Crusty above)

I dont know hoe you construe a report saying Irymple can onlly support one new supper market instead of 2 because there are a whloe bunch of new shops and woolworth shopping complex being built 2 k down the road in Mildura as bad??

I’m not saying it’s bad. Herron Todd White, the writers of the report infer it is;

There are a higher than normal number of vacant shops in Mildura’s
main shopping mall and generally low confidence levels
among retailers

The eventual construction of these large retail
premises will presumably be to the detriment of some of
the smaller, existing retail businesses.

Large chain store type operations rarely provide any real benefit in small towns and do have some negative impacts. For example one large store usually means the closure of several small local stores. Over all unemployment options are reduced as large stores rationalise employment. Large stores remove large amounts of money from local economies in payments to outside suppliers and investors. Locals tend to spend most of their income locally.

one of the problems holding back the region is a lack of competent and williing workers

Your word not mine but I agree.

lots of people in mildura from oveerseas many sponsored by their employers because they cant get locals to work or they havent botherd to get the necessary training or skills

The demographics don’t support your assumption of lots of foreign workers. The exception might be seasonal pickers under various govt programs who actually spend very little in town. Foreign workers are a two edged sword. On one hand they enable businesses to continue to survive and subsequently contribute to the local economy. On the other hand foreign workers send the vast majority of their small incomes out of the country and actually take from the locally economy. Their contribution to the property market is almost nil. They don’t buy property as a rule and they rent the cheapest snake pits around.

The report you linked mentioned nothing about the record grain production for the last 2 years or that the area was one of the only area to consistently produce grain over the 10 year drought.

Climate change policy is seeing the regions water rights diminish year by year. The region faces incredible challenges over the next decade or so as they struggle to adapt. Farming generally produces more down years than good and even good years may not be as economically successful as one might think. Bumper crops can actually reduce prices and quality has a significant impact on payouts. All agriculture sectors across Australia are facing unprecedented challenges as global currency wars force the $A ever higher and significant climatic events have increased 10 fold in the last decade. Agricultural insurances are a significant and rising cost to farmers.

The problem with agricultural and how it impacts Mildura are many here’s a few;

Ag employment is becoming more specialised and mechanised to reduce costs and resolve labour shortages

low skilled farm labour (pickers) are the lowest paid jobs.

trend towards farm amalgamation and corporate ownership

conversion to lifestyle blocks as farmers opt out.

http://adl.brs.gov.au/data/warehouse/pe_abarebrs99001275/pc13466.pdf

Many farms in the Mildura–Wentworth region are small, with around 61 per cent of farms having a total value of
agricultural output of less than $150 000 (?gure C) in 2000-01. In total, farms with a value of agricultural output
of less than $150 000 produced less than 20 per cent of Mildura–Wentworth’s value of agricultural output.
In contrast, the largest 2 per cent of farms produced 21 per cent of Mildura–Wentworth’s value of agricultural
output. Many small farms and, particularly the estimated 26 per cent of farms with a total value of agricultural
output of less than $50 000, would be mainly reliant on off-farm income to support their operators.

IF it wasnt for that region being a reliable producer of grain Australia would have been relying on imports to feed itself
I have no idea where you get this idea from. Mildura is the smallest of the grain belt regions.See below.

Mildura–Wentworth is one of Australia’s largest and most diverse agricultural regions with both irrigation
based horticultural industries and dryland broadacre industries. The region produces around 21 per cent
of Australia’s wine grapes and citrus, together with 10 per cent of barley, 7 per cent of wheat, 5 per cent of
vegetables and almost all of Australia’s dried vine fruit production, plus a wide variety of other agricultural
products

While its farm diversity has some economical buffering affects its 2 primary sectors, grapes (38%) and grain (24%) remain vulnerable to global macro economic factors. Grape production faces some serious challenges due a production glut and falling prices. What does help Mildura though is that it processes most of the grape industries production.

The revolution in farming over the last 10 years with no till farming has meant increased (X3) production and more reliabiity cropping every year instead of every 3 and higher yeilds as well new varities such as hindmarsh barley that yeild 30% more not to mention more marginal country can be farmed too. What about the new varities of canola that can be grown and high prices paid for it

Please post sources to substantiate this because I’ve seen nothing that could support these claims. All things considered these claimed improvements would mean only tiny adjustments to the Mildura macro economy. Improved farm efficiency is always occurring yet farm debt is rising faster than farm gross receipts. On Mildura farms 03/04 debt to income was approx 68%. By 05/06 it was 87%.

Nationally the debt to gross T/O is increasing (see slide 17)

http://maps.neilclark.com.au/web/news/Megatrends%20and%20Agriculture%20March%202011.pdf

there have been fruit fly outbreaks over the last couple of years the industry didnt collapse,

I stand corrected.

why post an old outdated report

Irymple Town Centre | Economic
Justin Malkiewicz | Statement of evidence
28 November 2011

Herron Todd White report – 2011 June

Realestate.com.au
Mildura Property Data & Trends
Data current to 2011

there have been 7 more up to date ones released since maybe the one that said Irymple house price went up 40% does fit you bias

In 2002 Irymple saw a 42% jump (units) and 2008 a 29.7% jump (units) according to Realestate.com.au. Does this not make you suspicious?

The corresponding data for houses was 2002 6.3% and 2008 -10.8% I smell a rat somewhere. I suspect the sample size is too small to give accurate figures. Mildura figures are likely to give a more accurate profile of the region.

Any way keep looking through your foggy rearveiw mirror, I will be looking through a clear windscreen

Don’t tell me tell this guy. I think he’s on your side anyway. Maybe a Casino or two will help…

A Mildura property valuer believes that economically Mildura desperately needs Victoria’s second Casino Licence
TUESDAY, 23 NOVEMBER 2010
The valuer Chris Cleary says many district homeowners have lost between 10% and 15% of the value of their properties and presumably a greater percentage of their equity, since the peak of the market around mid 2007. He said this has been disastrous for the region and even at the conservative rate of a 10% loss, this equates to around a $500million loss in householders equity.
“Whilst the drought is now over and we have water back in the river there has been no noticeable improvement in house prices our property market is stagnating,” Mr Cleary said.
“There is a proven direct correlation between population growth and property value growth. Whilst Cairns and Townsville have the advantage of being Coastal locations with larger populations, which you would expect to see strong capital growth, the smaller inland locations of Launceston and Alice Springs have seen a more than doubling of property values in the previous 7 years of (107% and 169% respectively) as against Mildura’s 32%.
Launceston during the 1980’s was considered a region with limited growth prospects.
The Launceston Country Club was one of the first major investments into the region in the 1980’s and since then there has been extensive other investment that has now seen the region as a premium tourist destination with solid population growth.
Mr Cleary says there is a perception that provincial cities with Casino/Entertainment/hotel complexes are progressive regions with an increasing tourist and economic outlook.
“The establishment of such a complex here is likely to lead to other beneficial development,” he says.
“A huge injection in investment in Mildura will see new jobs created, a more progressive outlook, population increase and a resultant increase in homeowners equity and we have to encourage this investment.”
Mr Cleary said that as a region we need to encourage development to see our region grow and prosper rather than listen to the negativity of the fear mongerers who are active in opposing the Jewel entertainment complex.

The Freckle

What a lot of twaddle!!

Mildura demographic breakdown below;

Mildura (3500) is a suburb of Northern Victoria, North Western, Victoria. It is about 476 kms from VIC’s capital city of Melbourne. The population of Mildura is 28,744 and is comprised of 47.7% males and 52.3% females.
The median/average age of the Mildura population is 36 years of age, 1 year below the Australian average.
The country of birth of people living in Mildura is 82.4% Australia, 1.6% Italy, 1.5% England, 1.5% Turkey, 1.1% New Zealand, 0.5% Greece.
85.7% of people speak English as their first language, 2.3% speak Italian, 2.2% speak Turkish, 1% speak Greek, 0.8% speak Tongan, 0.4% speak Samoan.
The religious make up of Mildura is 25.4% Catholic, 20.9% No Religion, 16.4% Anglican, 8.8% Uniting Church, 2.9% Presbyterian and Reformed.
47.4% of people are married, 32.5% have never married and 12.5% are separated or divorced. There are 1691 widowed people living in Mildura.
59.5% of the people living in Mildura are employed full time, while 27.8% are employed on a part time basis. Mildura has an above average unemployment rate of 6.7% and 8408 people are not part of the labour force.
The average individual income is $395.00 per week and the average household income is $761.00 per week.
The average rent in Mildura is $155 per week and the average mortgage repayment is $1083 per month. 30.1% are fully owned, and 29.9% are in the process of being purchased by home loan mortgage. 33.3% of homes are rented.

Now I don’t expect those stats to be 100% accurate but it does give you a fairly accurate profile of Mildura’s makeup.

With regard to under the table cash workers, the black economy, the shadow economy etc they’re active in every town and city within Aus. Bureaucrats know and understand all this as does your ivory tower economist. The amount of ppl your talking about represents a tiny fraction of the population and is almost (but not totally) insignificant.

But to give you the benefit of the doubt even if the so called black economy was as significant as you say then it may represent only 1 or 2 property sales per year in a town the size of Mildura. In terms of rentals I doubt they’d be your target market. It’s not the market segement that lends itself to generating equity gains.

The Freckle

You can get up to 6.01% / 4mths with Ubank on term. Anything other than TD’s are high risk at the moment. Property in the main is trending down so there’s no rush. I don’t see that trend changing any time soon in fact you may see it accelerate as we head into a possible white collar recession.

The imminent collapse of the EU, a slowing China, deficits in Japan (1st in 30yrs), $1T of global debt to roll over this year, and a rising dollar are all coinciding. I’ve said in the past that Aus may just face the perfect financial storm in the near future. I hope like hell that’s not the case but I’m hedging just in case.

2012 is the year to tread very carefully in Aus property markets. My guess is that a few good ol’ boys here on this forum are going to get their britches burnt this year or next.

The Freckle

fWord,

the biggest wingers in society are the wealthy. The wealthier and more powerful the bigger the winging and whining. They do their winging through professional lobby groups or industry associations. Just look how the mining industry went on a winging spree when govt imposed the super profit taxes. And who winged the loudest. Yep good old Twiggy Forest who’s in the top 5 wealthiest in Oz. The big miners got the better end of the deal while the smaller miners had to bite the proverbial bullet.

A more subtle way to winge is to subvert politicians through party donations and influence peddling.

The property lobby group through various limbs of the property industry continually winge to govt, the media etc about how hard done by they are and that their industry should be supported, helped, stimulated, subsidised etc etc.

I’m neither pro nor anti the Occupy movement. My interpretation about the OM guys is that they don’t envy the rich. They dislike the fact that more and more wealth (and power) is being concentrated in the hands of a few at the expense of the many. The 1% are using their position to swing the odds in their favor at a substantial cost to the 99% who have little if any real influence to balance the odds.

The analogy is working in a large organisation that demands more hours for less pay while the senior exec’s take long holidays, receive massive bonuses, award themselves excessive pay rises and retire with golden parachutes regardless of their individual effort, skill or accomplishment. The org’s investors meanwhile receive paltry dividends if any and share value growth with unknown growth prospects.

All anyone wants is a fair bite of the pie and anyone here who reckons they don’t winge about something at sometime is a dreamer.

The Freckle

You’re kidding!!! Andrew you need to focus on credible informative comment that is useful not simply adding to the noise.

The Freckle