There was a time when passports where not necessary. Australia introduced the requirement in 81. NZ followed a few years later if I remember correctly. Prior to that we could simply buy a ticket jump on a plan or boat and travel. Few people actually had passports because of this. Once it was introduced both NZ’s and Aussies required a passport. Australians didn’t need one initially to get into NZ but did need it to get back into Australia.

It’ll never happen Nigel. Oz can’t merge it’s States into a homogeneous unit let alone stand any chance of merging with NZ

The Freckle

We can all cut and paste

An Englishman wanted to become an Irishman, so he visited a doctor to find out how to go about this.

“Well”, said the doctor, “this is a very delicate operation and there’s a lot that can go wrong. I will have to remove half your brain.”

“That’s OK”, said the Englishman. “I have always wanted to be Irish and I am prepared to take the risk.”

The operation went ahead but the Englishman woke to find a look of horror on the face of the doctor.

“I’m terribly sorry !” the doctor said.

“Instead of removing half your brain, I’ve taken the whole brain out!”

The patient replied, “No worries mate !”

.

The main reason we Kiwis don’t really want to merge with Oz is that you’re our cash cow. We’ve been milking you for years.

The Freckle

Housing crises is just getting warmed up. We’re not even close to 50% through it yet. The second wave of foreclosures is now on the way and looks to be larger than the first.

How does a dying market absorb 9 million properties?

How do you play a terminal economy?

The Freckle

I’m sure you will WI. About 9 million to work through I think

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/second-foreclosure-tsunami-coming-and-about-kill-any-hopes-housing-bottom

To me the US is in a low angle death spiral but velocity is increasing. It can’t pull out of this without crashing. The pilots of the US economy have neither the fuel nor the ability to control this descent. The only thing to wonder is how bad and when the crash wil occur.

I have to make a point of getting over there and having a look so I can tell my grandkids about the America that used to be before it degenerates into a 3rd world country.

The Freckle

I’m beginning to think this person is simply an anti MB troll.

I haven’t seen a credible post yet.

The Freckle

The source for that data is the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

I don’t consider them permabears by any stretch of the imagination. There are delusional people at both ends of the spectrum between positive and negative, however, realists are often tagged one way or the other which is usually opposite to the challengers position.

It’s hard to dispute facts but then there’s those who only see in black and white. Anyone who thinks house prices will take off again sometime soon isn’t living in the real world nor understands what drives housing economics let alone national economies.

The realistic objective property investor is the one who will survive and do well over the next decade.

The Freckle

I smell a rat!

There are dumb people and there are unlucky people but rarely are there unlucky dumb people. You seem to be one of the latter which makes me really suspicious…

I’ve never known anyone with so many screw ups going on at once.

The Freckle

Is this the guy

Dean Baring
Acquisitions Manager, Queensland

If so he works for this mob (6th one down)

http://www.jlf.com.au/acquisitions_team.html

who also run

Custodian WealthBuilders http://www.jlf.com.au/property_investment.html

The Freckle

To understand mining you need to understand China, it’s likely growth rate and where that growth will be focused. I don’t see resources taking up such a large piece of the picture primarily because China has over focused on infrastructure builds, especially housing, that has resulted in much misspent GDP. Mal-investment is currently a major economic problem now and going forward for China. There is a consensus developing that China will grow much slower than many think and that a redirection in GDP growth to a more consumerist model will see a substantial fall away from resource consumption rates of the past few decades.

About 70% of the boom is construction of mines while the remaining 30% is actual mining itself. Given that prices for ore are almost certain to fall along with volumes that puts boom towns at the extreme end of the risk curve. The problem with investing in boom sectors is knowing when to get out due to the fact that while their rise and associated yields are spectacular so are the falls once the boom is over.

from Michael Pettis
http://www.mpettis.com/2012/03/10/the-world-bank-proposes-tough-medicine-for-china/

And how much will growth slow? The World Bank report apparently doesn’t say, but the consensus has been slowly moving down towards 5-6% annual growth over the next few years. That’s better than the crazy numbers of 8-9% most analysts were predicting even two years ago (and some still are), but it is still too high. GDP growth rates will slow a lot more than that. I still maintain that average growth in this decade will barely break 3%. It will take, however, at least another two or three years before a number this low falls within the consensus range.

And by the way when it does, metal prices should fall sharply. Copper prices have done reasonably well in the past few months as Chinese buyers have restocked, as we suggested might happen to our clients last fall. With the recent easing we may see more strength in copper over the next month or so, but I have little doubt that within two or three years copper prices are going to be a whole lot lower than they are today. Chinese investment demand simply cannot hold up much longer. (emphasis is mine)

Pettis has extensive knowledge and experience in China along with information conduits into some of the highest echelons of Chinese government. He is widely recognised as a practical, objective, non political economic commentator with regard to China so I tend to give considerable weight to what he has to say. However, taking Pettis’ comments in context with global economic events only adds veracity to his conclusions. His posts are well worth the read. http://www.mpettis.com/

Adding to Australia’s woes will be a lessening dependence on imported ore from Chinese steel mills.
http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Metals/8062951

He also said the development of iron ore mines — both in China and overseas — has gained momentum in the past few years, adding that the relatively slow development of China’s domestic iron ore mines had been speeded up and was now growing at an annual rate of about 20%, gradually reducing China’s dependence on imported iron ore and this had resulted in significant changes in international iron ore supply and demand.

By 2015 the Pilbera region alone will have an export capacity of 800 million mt/yr. That doesn’t stack well against Chinese demand at its peak …

China imported a total of 686.06 million mt of iron ore in 2011, up 10.9% year on year, according to figures from China Customs

Couple this with considerable capacity building investment in other countries I can only conclude that we are in for a sustained commodity glut lasting possibly decades. Collectively all this puts this graph in to context.

Source http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/02/parko-meet-petard/

The lesson from this graph is that when commodities peak fairly quickly as they have done in recent times then we can expect them to decline as fast if not faster. This peak is one of the fastest and highest to date. It doesn’t bode well for the reset when it happens.

Could this be the start of the reset?
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/03/trade-deficit-stuns-everybody-but-mb/

There has been a massive slump in the nation’s trade performance, with the trade balance plunging almost $2 billion from a strong surplus to a large deficit in the space of a month.

The value of iron ore exports in January were down $2,154m from their peak levels reached in October 2011 ($6,275m). The fall in iron ore exports now sees coal as Australia’s largest single export commodity by value, accounting for 23.7% of total merchandise exports in January versus iron ore’s 21.4% share:

I tend to think anyone riding the resource boom in housing has limited time left to bank their gains.

The Freckle

Sure they’re Italian and not from Lala Land.

The Freckle