Kong your problem at this time is your lack of knowledge and experience. The current market is really one for PI experts and I expect to see them have great difficulty as well. The PI landscape is changing rapidly and mainstream methodologies and approaches will need reshaping to capture value in the property market.

Your current proposal is a recipe for disaster. 5 – 10 yrs ago yes (a rising market) but not today (a falling market).

We are likely to experience over the coming years one of the greatest financial calamities of our lifetime. GFC v2 will make GFC v1 look like a practice run. It will present opportunities to the patient and the well informed but crucify those who rush in and only do cursory DD.

The new generation of PI’s will need to take a more holistic view of the market and incorporate national and international economic drivers into their investment planning.

There are some very switched on and experienced cookies within this forum. Leverage this knowledge base to up skill yourself over the next 12 months while you watch and learn to see how the PI landscape evolves as this current GFC unfolds.

Can’t go the tablet thing. Wife has one (Android) that keeps her out of my hair (most of the time anyway). Droid OS has a long way to go in my opinion especially on tablets. But no matter how problematic they are I definitely won’t buy anything starting with “i”. I’d much rather have a netbook.

This just in from MB

Chinese Defaulting on Bulk Contracts
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/05/chinese-defaulting-on-bulk-contracts/

I can see this getting really ugly very fast. I’ve argued for well over 18 months locally that expansion of mine capacity in the Pilbara region alone would exceed all of China’s seaborne demand by at least 100mtpa. Add to that supply from other regions of Australia and supply coming on stream from international sources and I couldn’t see anything but a recipe for disaster.

China’s going to try and bring forward infrastructure projects because their economy isn’t just heading for a hard landing it’s actually stalling big time.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/05/here-comes-the-chinese-stimulus/

You know when you hit the brakes and then miss a gear to get moving again… to me that’s China but they’ve picked too low a gear and slowed down even more to stalling speed. I think they’ve just snapped an axle trying.

This has the makings of one big balls up.

It’s early days yet bit it appears Chinese mills are delaying or cancelling orders for coal and ore.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47498211

I notice that LME stockpiles are rising.. nicker for example

Fe @ 62% was US$145/dmt on 1 May. It’s slumped to US$130/dmt

Coal is looking decidedly shaky. That has implications for the East Coast especially QLD

The monthly volume volatility is concerning.

Even more concerning is the massive percentage of export earnings these commodities represent

China, which now receives around 30% (or $7 billion per month worth) of Australia’s total merchandise exports, up from only 5% in 2000:

The question I ask myself is; are commodities returning to trend given global growth is seriously impaired and likely to be for the foreseeable future?

Interesting. I’ve been using if for a while now to move money to NZ accounts and Malta. Didn’t realise you could swing it back the other way.

China’s easing policy and size are widely considered to have complicated China’s ability to cope with economic shock. China did what everyone else did and the outcome as we know today was/is a bigger mess to clean up.

China’s ability to stimulate now is also considered to be severely limited if at all and the last massive stimulation program has actually exacerbated the current crises emerging in their financial system. To many China is an enigma. Comment by MSM over the last 2 years consistently over estimates China’s ability to drive global growth and under estimates its financial problems often citing trillions in foreign reserve as evidence of this.

The following link is a presentation given by Mike Pettis on China’s situation. He expands on the theory of where it needs to go if it is to survive this GFC and continue to grow into the future in a sustainable way.

http://annual.cfaconference.org/2012/05/09/live-stream-session-global-imbalances-and-the-decoupling-myth-chinas-role-in-the-world-economy/

Patrick Chovanec gives a detailed an interesting account of China’s property market and the part it’s playing in driving down growth.

http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2012/05/16/china-real-estate-unravels/

An interesting article by Nomura on metal consumption based on method of analysis and then compared to western countries.
http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/economy/the-china-driven-commodities-super-cycle-debate-nomura-edition.html

I don’t agree with everything he says especially hard or soft landing scenarios for China but this comment struck me as profligate waste in the Chinese construction industry;

Significantly more steel to generate the same USD1mn of GDP as other countries

Significantly more copper to generate the same USD1mn of GDP

Significantly more aluminium to generate the same USD1mn of GDP

and

Miners and mining-related companies have been among the largest beneficiaries of China’s rapid growth since 2001, and if China’s growth model is in the process of changing, even in a small way, then the negative consequences of such change are likely to be felt disproportionately by those who have benefitted the most from the previous trend, especially given current production expansion plans are designed to meet continued and rapid demand growth from China

and then there’s this analysis from Zarathustra that is just plain scary. He provides ample evidence via several scenarios that predict growth from -6% to +4% not the 7+% the world needs China to come up with to keep us in the style we’re accustomed to.

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/economy/crash-chinese-economy.html

A plan that’s been on the drawing board for some time and makes sense to continue with even though global uncertainty is the theme of the day.

Mining will not stop. Construction of new mines will not stop.

What will change is the price of commodities and the volumes. Both will reduce and some commodities like coal and iron ore I expect to see a substantial drop in price and volume.

China’s virtually come to a grinding halt. Given that it takes 60% of seaborne ore that’s going to literally plunge in price and volume. Added to that is higher quality and a cheaper source being developed in Africa over the next few years. Competitiveness here will have to improve if AU is to retain it’s share.

Both India and China have stated aims to improve energy production outcomes in terms of efficiency and pollution. That’s morphing into a move towards gas as a progressive replacement (not totally) for coal. So coal prices and volumes will come under pressure going forward.

The upshot of all this is that given GFC v2 is just around the corner then the most likely scenario is a retracement back to early 00 prices and volumes.

I would expect to see resource based construction drop off by at least 80% over the next 3 years.

Boom over in my book.

I believe you can fax cheques too. Their version of netbanking

Try these

http://www.rockdalenews.com/section/1/article/11089/

http://www.lowtaxrate.com/georgia

Amazing isn’t it. We live in some of the most technologically advanced countries in the world and yet a simple money transaction is still one of the hardest things to do.

Might as well live in Tajikistan for all the good it does.