Forum Replies Created
- ten_burner wrote:So Economic growth, Low unemployment, the fastest growing major economy in the world, the biggest exporter of goods to the world and a growth rate averages of 10% per annum for the last 30 years not a valid argument? these are typical ways people judge other countries.
My bet is NZ will be in a recession first. it spent 2 years in the last 7 in one. very boom bust NZ. they have the views though.
Like I said we can revisit this later in the year, if you are right unemployment levels will spike and economic growth will be in the toilet. This is yet to be seen
Economic growth is so furry as to be almost useless. GDP has always been one of those popular stats that poly's and academic economists like to quote but every country has a different way of calculating it to suit their needs;
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Macroeconomic Transparency
There is a worldwide obsession with Chinese gross domestic product (GDP). GDP is a poor measure of national wealth and economic performance. This is especially true in China where so many transactions are “empty”: China’s official benchmark of fixed asset investment for 2012, for instance, was about $1.75 trillion higher than the State Statistical Bureau’s (SSB) number for gross fixed capital formation, the standard international measure.[2] Land or used machinery changes hands but creates no additional value. Funds are said to be spent, with no identified benefit. Fixed asset investment is dutifully reported every month, while gross fixed capital formation appears only once a year.
China's growth came off an extremely low base consequently high growth looks impressive but is small in scale. As it's economy scaled up over the years that growth becomes a destabilising factor. You can't double your economy every 5 – 10 years indefinitely without running into major problems. China drove growth by stipulating growth rates required of regional leaders. Consequently much of this growth was driven by misallocation of capital simply to fulfill demands from Bejing. Other strategies involved fraudulent invoicing to make their GDP figures meet targets.
Low unemployment. Reality check because employment is a poor indicator of financial wealth and health –
http://www.china-mike.com/facts-about-china/facts-rich-poor-inequality/
- China has about 150 million people living below the United Nations poverty line of one US dollar a day.
- Nearly 500 million Chinese people live on less than $2 a day.
- 85% of China’s poor live in rural areas, with about 66% concentrated in the country’s west
- 99% of China’s poor live in or come from rural areas, according to national statistics, which count migrant workers in cities among the rural, not urban poor. Even if migrant workers are excluded from the rural population, 90% of poverty is still rural.
- Over half of China’s population lives in rural areas…but they share less than 12% of the country’s wealth.
- Levels of poverty are higher and more severe in China’s western regions, but nearly half of the poor are in other parts of the country.
- China’s poverty among ethnic minorities is two to three times higher than among the Han Chinese.
- Up to 200 million Chinese workers and peasants suffer from occupational ailments, according to data from the Ministry of Health.
- China’s middle class is estimated to between 100 million and 150 million people.
- China has about 55 million middle-class households
- China ranks #53 worst worldwide in terms of income inequality, with a Gini index (measuring wealth inequality) of 41.5. In comparison, the U.S. ranks #40 worst with a Gini index of 40.
- In the mid-2000s, China’s top 10 percent of the population controlled 45 percent of the country’s wealth.
- In 2009, China’s urban per capita annual income of about US$2,500 was nearly three times that of rural residents. The gap is much more extreme in larger, wealthier cities such as Beijing ($9,085 in 2008) and Shanghai ($10,529 in 2008).
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The average annual income in China’s cities is now more than three times the average income in the countryside, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
China Daily, the government-run newspaper, reported that it was the widest disparity for more than three decades.
- Real estate and manufacturing together make up more than half of China’s wealth creation among the richest Chinese individuals.
2nd largest economy and largest exporter. Big is only an advantage when demand exceeds supply. It is a major hindrance when supply exceeds demand. China is currently experiencing over production and over capacity in the range of 30%. Business defaults are accelerating as global demand continues to contract for China's 'stuff'
One of the reasons I came back to NZ was that I believe that when a global correction comes NZ is small enough and diverse enough with its exports to still function at a better than average level comparatively.
NZ's primary exports are largely in growth areas regardless of economic conditions.
The down side is that the countries we export to are extremely vulnerable to economic crashes. China falls over Australia will feel a lot of pain and that will rub off on NZ from both sources. You might note that not so long ago the US was NZ's primary market but it's now slipped to 3rd.
China's debt is widely considered to be under estimated and its debt over estimated. Corporate debt is more realistically assessed at around 155% of GDP alone.
For the size of its economy China's debt is off the planet. Throw in $23T in shadow banking debt and you have a debt burden in the vicinity of $38T…truely staggering
The growth of China's debt is unparalleled..
Central Govt debt estimates…
+10
Good round up J. Can't argue with anything your saying at all.
Jeez starting to sound like Nigel and Rob
jayhinrichs wrote:Freckle,,, Never been there how about cost of living… Is it Like Norway?Thailand is fairly cheap like many Asian towns once you get out of the tourist traps and access local pricing as opposed to prices for tourists and foreigners. The lad luvs it up there. He's just moved from Phuket on the South Western coast up to Chiang Mai in the northern hinterland. modern 2 bedroom unit AU$250/mth, food's like $3 a feed, rents a scooter for $20/wk, internet about $25/mth no limit… kids in heaven.. Seems like every nice Thai girl would like to marry a white foreigner so female friends abound… kids having a ball… think I'll have to go visit him some time
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Macroeconomic Transparency
