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  • Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    While I'm no fan of the carbon tax or Lab for that matter I suggest not slitting one's wrist just yet. There is supposed to be a trade off with increased CT costs and tax reductions (increases to tax free thresholds) in other areas. It's also a tax deductible item I believe (because its not differentiated as part of your council rates bill).

    Because your effectively a business for tax purposes you should be able to manage this without too much difficulty and very little cost if any over all.

    The insurance thing is a result of insurance co's being literally smashed both here and in NZ ($5B+) with a series of major disasters that have cost them big. Their reinsurers have also taken big hits globally and many of the local insurers face significant increases in reinsurance premiums. Your risk will profile will certainly up your premium but even a low or unchanged risk profile will still see some of the risk burden distributed across the broader customer base.

    There's also a change to flood cover and its definition after the debacle in Qld. Check to see what they're offering in that context. 

    You can only shop around and do the best you can. Everyone will be in the same boat.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    SteveMcKnight wrote:
    Appreciate the feedback, but make it as constructive as you can please.

    – Steve 

    Correct me if I'm wrong but the thread title asks what we think not suggestions please. I've left suggestions anyway in response to other posts on the subject. 

    I'm a straight shooter and I'm not big on massaging peoples egos or patting them on the back when it's not deserved. I'll do that when you have a finished product that works. I'm here for the experience and discussion not the prizes and shiny badges. i hope I'm not that shallow.

    You might have big plans but the planning and execution leaves something to be desired. 

    At the very minimum this new site should have the same or better functionality as the old site. At this stage it doesn't. I feel like I've just moved into a new house and the tradies are still finishing off. Plenty of bling but things aren't working too good yet.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    bardon wrote:
    Nope you don't understand me correctly.  What I am saying is that we are both using similar data as I am sure many are doing and he doesn't own it, he hasn't created it and I don't follow this guy and I don't have an opinion if he is a cookie or not.

    Well it must be coincidence then that your parroting the same economic theme as the Kouk (and others) then. It's one of the reason I challenge your posts Bardon. They often reflect MSM or industry hype with little supporting comment of your own. You then draw conclusion from this low grade information which rarely matches real world conditions.

    • Some more good numbers out recently on the housing market, affordability, GDP, interest rates, population and rents.  The long term residential property investment fundamentals that were always there are hopefully a bit clearer to all now.

    ​affordability – affordability has improved in some sectors of the market only because the market has fallen or stagnated but not all sectors by a long shot

    GDP​ – our GDP is out of wack with our trading partners and most of the western economies. That should ring alarm bells as to its makeup and accuracy. 

    • Treasury admits GDP used inappropriately

      Shraysi Tandon  September 17, 2010     A senior Treasury official has admitted that his department has been guilty of overusing gross domestic product (GDP), after recognising that it is a flawed measure of economic wellbeing and social progress.

    • another aspect of an out of wack GDP is the huge capital investment program in place within the resource sector. This currently contributes around 25% to GDP. Current GDP figures aren't likely to hold up given the likely down turn in resource expansion project

    interest rates – interest rates are dropping because the economy is struggling. So why does an economy with a supposedly healthy GDP growth rate of 4.3% need to stimulate spending by dropping rates? Another warning bell.

    population – I'm not 100% sure what your aiming at here but I'm guessing you're suggesting pop growth has a beneficial impact in RE price growth. I would consider that part of the picture if supply was an issue but its not so again I'm not sure where your going with this.

     rents – rents (excluding Perth and Darwin) haven't risen however rental yields have. When yields rise that usually means asset values are dropping.

    So my contention is the numbers aren't good once you lift the bonnet and dig a little deeper. You'll have to elaborate on the second part of your statement about fundamentals and it's all clearer now. Your statement was too vague to make anything clear that I can get my head around anyway.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Sorry guys but this has to be the worst site upgrade I've ever seen. 

    New site is no where near as functional as the previous site and I can't believe it's not mobile device ready. Why were you not running this site in beta mode with volunteer forum members as testers prior to going live surprises me. Several days to switch over – just don't understand that. It should have been turn key ready and switched over in less than an hour without all the bugs and parts missing. 

    Did I miss something in the mail about prior notification or was it just a surprise you thought you'd spring on us after leaving a closed sign on the door with "Closed for maintenance".

    I hope you guys aren't in the aircraft industry.

     

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    I would also consider reverse ordering the threads. Perhaps as an option. It's less clicks to jump to the latest post not the first of a thread which I then have to click again. I do notice that one can jump to the last page from the forum threads page though – that's good.

    Another handy tool is a "JUMP TO" option at the bottom of the page that gets you straight to a particular forum. It's usually a drop down box.

    Can we loose the SAVE text and replace it with POST.

    I notice that when I page back I can only go to the first page after I click Quote to start a reply not all the way back to the thread when I first clicked on it. I often do several revisions of a post (previewing). Before I post I will sometimes select all in the comment box and then copy it. I'll then return to the thread, paste into a clean comment box and reread the relevant comments in the thread before posting. I notice the copy function in the rich text editor is disabled also. I have to switch to plain text to copy

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    I prefer the linear sequential approach. There's no way to keep up with comment from others if its attached to someone else's post somewhere in the thread. Too hard.

    The "quote" function as per the old system and included here performs this function extremely well. The new system just doubles up without adding anything to the readability of a thread.

    What would be useful is when the QUOTE function is used it also added a link back to the original (quoted) post. That enables the reader to jump back and read the complete post. Many of us only quote particular points of a post which may detract from context for the reader.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    bardon wrote:
    I don't think there is any coincidence at all.  We are simply drawing from the same economic facts, except  I got a few more in than him and he was specific on his.  A fact is a fact, no spin, no projections just facts that is the commonality.

    If I understand you correctly you are saying it's not a coincidence so therefore you are drawing from the Kouks blogs as part of your post. You do know why they call him The Kouk and no it's not short for his surname.

    As to facts well….

    Fact is sometimes used synonymously with truth, as distinct from opinions, falsehoods, or matters of taste.

    I think they more accurately reflect opinion or engineered outcomes but facts is somewhat of a stretch.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    bardon wrote:
     

    I guess one thing we do know is that there will be regime change next year in Oz. Meet the new boss, same s the old boss!

    And here we agree, however, the thought almost drives me to despair. The thought of Abbot and Hockey running the show makes me cringe. One thing the world is desperately short of is credible competent political leadership. 

    Talk about a choice between the devil or the deep blue sea.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    bardon wrote:

    I don't know why you mention Koukoulas in reference to me.

    You're saying your post is not substantially a point for point summary of one of the Kouks blogs.

    http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/2164-australias-best-economic-fundamentals-since-1964

    • Australia has GDP growth of 4.3%, at the same time inflation is running at 1.3%, at the same time the unemployment rate is below 5.5% (5.2% to be precise), at the same time mortgage interest rates are below 7% (6.85% for the standard variable rate).

    Amazing coincidence if it's not.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Rent!!..

    Melbourne market is under the most downward pressure of any city at the moment and there's nothing on the immediate or near horizon that's likely to change that. Given global economic concerns and increasingly challenging economic environment for Australia and most would agree that investing with the prime reason of housing a family member isn't likely to turn out well.

    There is far lower risk for about the same if not better return available to you. Dropping your $500k into a term deposit will net you more per year in the first 5 years than a comparable rental property. No in-going costs or holding costs during that time. (5yr term is around 5.6%) You could pick up around $550/wk on $500k (and still have $500k at the end).

    My guess is that you could pay your daughters rent and most of her tuition and probably still come out ahead after 5 years. Your daughter might actually (subject to graduating) end up debt free at the end of it to start a career. I tend to think there's far more value in that strategy than any small gain (delusionally optimistic) you might garner from a property investment.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    And if I allowed myself to be unduly influenced by the "doom sayers" I would bury my head in the barren sand and miss out on those opportunities. So my choice is to look for the positives on offer.

    And there is of course the opposite to that position. Those who are prone to positive bias and jump in with both feet. I'm neither pro nor con most markets. They are either opportunities to be taken or avoided subject to risk reward trade-offs. The trick with most investing is try and stay objective without letting too much bias creep in from either way. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    I suppose so if you choose to follow a govt spruiker who only tells you part of the story and quotes figures out of context or worse simply parrots massaged govt figures.

    Sorry Bardon but I don't rate anything Koukoulas says as serious economic comment. It's in his interests to sell the establishment. After all it's where he earns his crust.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    I'd rate anything Simon Pressley says as somewhere between the Mad Hatter and Alice in Wonderland. He's actually worse than most of the so called doomsayers just on the other end of the spectrum. 98% of his article was simply noise.

      "It's good to see a few more positive articles finally emerging to counter the prevalence of negative articles, statements and comments which the media focuses on."

    ​It's irrelevant whether or not information is negative or positive. It's all just market information. What is important is how credible, useful and informative the info is. Markets ebb and flow on information. Investors live and die on the accuracy, credibility and timing of market intelligence.

    It's what you do with information and how you analyse it that's important.

    If you choose to be positive in a bearish market simply to hang and be seen with the pro property crowd then you run the risk of being taken out of your position in a bear market. If you genuinely believe the MSM market hype is wrong then put a case that supports an alternative.

    While I don't generally follow MSM commentary one has to consider the old adage, "Where there's smoke there's probably fire". 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Engelo your becoming a slum lord ;-)

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Nathan and I don’t see eye to eye on a few things (philosophical mainly) a bit over the top for me but I’d rate him as an honest ethical young guy who’ll do his best to try an help you. Up to you if you think what he offers is value for money for your situation.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    bardon wrote:
    This to me is the reason why investing in property is a good long term proposition. .

    A few graphs to ponder. The idea works well in theory but not necesarily in practice. If you happen to live during a growth cycle you’ll do well. If you live in a deleveraging cycle you’ll loose your shirt. 1890 – 1950 was a particularly bad time to be invested in property. We may well be entering another of these long deleveraging cycles. If that is the case then last graph suggests an over valued market. If we do go into a deleveraging cycle it could be substantial in correction and long in duration.

    I imagine many are hoping that this is not the case, however, global fundamentals don’t promote any confidence in that position. Time will tell I suppose.

    An interesting article on the subject of inflation, growth and property.
    http://www.moneymanagement.com.au/analysis/investment-management/2012/is-there-a-property-bubble-in-australia

    chart of the day, Long Term Real House Price Indices, 1880-2010

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    It may all be moot anyway if prices keep declining at their current rate.

    Thailand’s top coal miner Banpu has suspended up to US$600 million of its four-year investment plan and lowered its production target by 10% due to softening coal prices.

    Of the total amount,investments allocated for Australian operations will be lowered by to $400 million. Capital expenditure planned for Indonesia will be cut by $100 million from $345 million, while the budget for Mongolia is down by $250 million from $400 million.

    Then you have India the supposedly new mega market for coal as it tries to grow electricity output to support economic growth. Problem is that idea is falling apart fast. They have mandated cheap electricity however they can’t sustain that with current imported coal prices.

    For Australia there are plenty of international suppliers (competitors), a market glut and soft prices. Australian miners need to get around $80/t (thermal coal) to get past break even but new mines will struggle to stay viable at that price.

    For those investing or invested in towns within coal mining regions there may well be tough times ahead. The downward pressure on prices is likely to remain for the foreseeable future and the likelihood of mines going into care and maintenance along with suspended expansion plans seems highly likely.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    bardon wrote:
    The fact of the matter is that Thiess have been awarded a $2.3b contract for a mine near Dysart.

    Thiess already manage the mine. Their contract’s been renewed. What they’re not telling us is how much of the $2.3b is standard operating cost (no real increase in spending) and how much is going to Sedgman’s for their expansion build.

    Like I keep saying Bardon. It’s penny ante stuff – less than a billion per year. Even less when you consider how much is additional expenditure over and above the current spend.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Nooob wrote:
    I know that 99% of people here in this forum are pro properties and they would challenge this; but I think the foundation of oz economy is corporations.

    Foundation of all economies is small business.

    Nooob wrote:
    government will do whatever it can maintain the affordability of house price

    Whenever governments interfere in markets they invariably create bubbles and distort market fundamentals . Property affordability is at its lowest in modern history so I have no idea how you draw the these conclusions.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    WA is one big mining town and as far as mining towns go they do provide higher risk than might otherwise be expected. One could argue that WA’s economy is reasonably diversified, however, a substantial portion of GSP (Gross State Product) is predicated on business investment.

    …from WA Treasury – Economic notes 2010 -11

    On an expenditure basis, the major driver of real growth in the State’s GSP was business investment,
    growing by 12.6% over the year and contributing 3.0 percentage points to the 3.5% GSP growth rate.
    This was followed by household consumption, which grew by 4.5% over the year, contributing 1.8 percentage points.
    State Final Demand (a measure of domestic demand in the State) grew by 6.5% in 2010-11, contributing 5.8 percentage points to annual GSP growth. However 22.2% growth in the balancing item detracted 4.1 percentage points from GSP growth during the year.

    ? On an industry Gross Value Added basis, the main driver of real GSP growth in 2010-11 for Western Australia
    was from output in Mining, which contributed 1.6 percentage points to the State’s overall GSP growth of 3.5%.
    While output from other industries was mostly positive during the year, output in the Agriculture, Forestry and
    Fishing industry and the Wholesale Trade industry fell, detracting 0.6 and 0.1 percentage points each from GSP growth.
    Several other industries such as Accommodation and Food Services, Public Administration and Safety
    and Arts and Recreation neither added to, nor detracted from, GSP growth.

    The conclusion one can draw from the above is that mining and oil/gas infrastructure expansion projects are the main drivers of the WA economy. The big mining projects are scheduled to wind back within 2 years although FMG has plans for the next 5+. I’m not convinced FMG will be able to pursue its expansion strategy as aggressively going forward as it has in the past for a variety of reasons. Oil and Gas has some big projects on the go now that will take at least 5 years to complete but I doubt they will have much affect on Perth property if at all.

    I tend to think things are finally balanced at the moment and that much depends on how China handles the global downturn. For an investor its more important than ever that any PI strategies are well thought out and include worst case scenario planning. There’s been a slight uptick in the Perth market and rentals are fairly buoyant at the moment but unless fundamentals start moving in a positive direction soon I don’t see those as sustainable at current levels.

    I’ve talked to several business owners in recent weeks from Welshpool to Mandurah and they’re all on the edge financially. They certainly aren’t optimistic at this point.

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