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  • Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
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    I would probably go with an architect first and look at the financial feasibility of a project while also discussing local authority requirements. Architects will probably be able to cover that aspect as well but I would still do the in person thing with council. Someone on this board wrote a not too bad article on this process I believe. Think they were in Melbourne though. 

    You're stepping into the realms of property development now so this may require a whole other skill set if you don't already have it.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Murphy's Law.When you have it and never use it you moan about the cost because you see no tangible value to it. The day you don't have it and need it you wish you'd had it and not been such a miserable sod.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    I think what gng is talking about is when you run multiple tabs. If you go to another tab and then come back to a tab with PI.com the tab has stalled. It takes around 20 -30sec to become active again. I noticed it started this behavior when you installed message updates in the right (now left) column. My guess is that Chrome stops elements in a page updating in non facing (nonactive) tabs. When you come back to the tab the page has to re-establish a link with the server and restart the updatable elements within a page. I doubt there is a fix for this.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    You're effectively talking about turning a 4 bedder into 6 studios. Sounds alright in theory although it may be an expensive reno to put in 6 bathrooms and kitchenettes and bring the common areas upto exec standard. Will they be serviced?? Your night rate seems a bit cheap. I was thinking $150/ 1 -3 nights for casuals.

    Planning permission??

    Council??

    Neighbors objecting??

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    I think the exec thing has been done to death in Syd (and other cities) over the last decade or so. I wouldn't describe $1k/wk  for 4 bedders in inner Syd as particularly good. A friends partner was a PM in this market mainly Nth Shore stuff. Returns were triple that 10 years ago with lower entry costs than today.

    I don't think the corporate rental has much mileage left in it at the moment. I expect to see corporate balance sheets take a hit this year and for several years following. The exec market could get a lot tighter fairly quickly.

    An investment area you might like to think about is 55's plus retirees, aged care, gated communities etc. The shear number of retirees hitting the retirement market is growing at a phenomenal rate and not projected to peak until around 2030. 

    See this graph

    and this ABS  java applet that you can manipulate (pretty whizzy)

    The thing I like about this market is that it's; growing, predictable, and because of those things comparatively low risk.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    moxi10 wrote:

    Here's an article about land releases in some of the High yielding, high price Queensland towns. More cause for caution by anyone considering investing there.

    http://www.cqnews.com.au/story/2012/08/08/land-releases-for-our-crippled-towns/

    I ordered the book today. It's supposed to be a pretty depressing read and likened to The Grapes of Wrath

    The land release thing I suspect is your typical local political BS. They prattled on about the same thing in Hedland when I was there. They take for ever to plan and finalise and then to infinity to actually let contracts and build the infrastructure to support more housing. Now that coal is on life support I think you've got 2 shows of more land releases within the next 2 – 5 years. 

    • I know this place, Freckle. I grew up there. I hope to get back there one day

    ​Yep same. Best thing I ever did was give my lads the same semi country lifestyle upbringing I enjoyed as a kid

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    People make money out of other people because every  one works on the principle they have to find a bigger mug than them to sell successfully.

    Reality check. If your assumptions are correct re pricing then $450k may be too high if one expects value for money. The whole successful investor mantra is based around buying BELOW market value not above or at MV. From what you're saying about comparative properties $450k is probably at MV for now. Personally I'd look at the market in that area and prices over the last 18 months to see if you're in a falling, stationary or rising market

    Get past liking places for their sex appeal. If it doesn't pass the financial test and stack up as an investment then it doesn't get past go.

    It's a buyers market and all the pressure is on them. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Chooky88 wrote:
    Hi Freckle. I needed to post the contract front Page with two initials today. Holding off to Monday. Got a 1×1 in Lovell Pl Sth Hedland on hold. 630k to settle. Do you think it will drop in value in 2 years? The loan is approved and if I cancel the deal. What do you suggest I do with the money. I can't afford to negative gear another property. I have 3 rentals a home and I'm supporting a family. Cheers. Ps. I don't touch shares. Lost 80k in the gfc.

    You probably need to talk to guys like Jamie and Richard et al about that stuff. 

    In terms of your property portfolio I would take a good hard look at it and run the ruler over each property. You will have to look at potential worst case scenarios and figure out if you can survive them and come out the other side with any upside potential.

    My generic view of Perth and WA for that matter is you have to look at it a lot like a mining town. Mining and energy aren't ever going to go away but their activity levels fluctuate and that drives both macro and micro economic activity here. My overview of Perth is that economic activity is probably running around 120% at the moment and that level of activity is not sustainable for much longer. Ore prices continue to fall ($113.80 today) and volumes are now starting to decline as well.

    • Iron-ore exports from Australia's Port Hedland declined for the second straight month in July as shipments to China fell, port authority figures showed Wednesday Exports from Port Hedland, one of the world's largest iron-ore terminals, dropped 9.3% from June to 19.5 million metric tons. The port is the hub most used by BHP Billiton Ltd. for its iron-ore exports, while Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. and Atlas Iron Ltd. (AGO.AU) also ship from there. Source

    Mining construction or expansion projects have driven the boom in the WA economy NOT mining. A point many fail to recognise or understand. As you can see from above two forces are working against the economy here; time as the expansion phase reduces in intensity over the next year or two and diminishing returns on a global downturn forcing miners to reign in costs. 

    My guess is that all the drivers that have enabled a high growth state economy are about to dissipate fairly rapidly. Population pressures (currently running around 1000/mth inbound) may well reverse if the mining sector starts to shed jobs along with canceled projects on the construction side. A double whammy to underlying employment within this state.

    If ore volumes decrease then state budgets will be impacted substantially especially where most are predicated on increased volumes and prices. State budgets will also take a hit from tax revenues (incl GST) and a myriad of other fees if activity slips. We've already seen it in other states as economic drivers wither and fail.

    The state has a $7.6billion infrastructure spend scheduled for next year which includes the Perth waterfront development, a new sports stadium and a children's hospital. If there's any change to that spending then it would signal revenue problems for the state. Late 2008 the state debt was around $3.6B. Today it's around $23B. That's a massive increase in debt over the last 5 years all based on predicted earnings and exchange rates of around US$0.78 by 2015. If resources go even slightly pear shaped over the next 24 months this state faces some serious fiscal and financial challenges. Property does not do well in struggling economies.

    The risk here is that nationally perceptions may change about WA and Perth in particular being the growth center of Australia. WA state government claims a GSP growth rate of around 6% however it's estimated that capital expenditure accounts for something like 2.6% of that. That brings growth down to around 3.5% which is still good until you strip out the trickle down affect of all that capital expenditure. We may well see growth drop below the 3% which would indicate near recessionary conditions. A possibility that can't be discounted.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Talk about 6 degrees of separation. My youngest son moves into Lovell in the next few weeks (company house). Four years ago an elderly friend had a 2×1 for sale there. At the time things were much slower than they are now but by all accounts still booming. He had difficulty selling it and it took around 6 -8 months I believe. In the following 4 years that property probably doubled in value and rent.

    I definitely don't see that happening now primarily because you have 3 major miners all trying to double production capacity simultaneously. That's created enormous pressure on services and accommodation in Hedland. That kind of growth has never happened before that I'm aware of. This rapid growth phase has a defined life cycle and it's being shortened by global economic events. The logical assumption an investor should make is that within 2 -3 years things should wind back down to a more sustainable pace. That means all the drivers that push asset prices and rentals will vanish fairly quickly. I would expect to see prices and rents gradually move back to levels seen 4 years ago.

    The major problem I see with PI's in todays market is that the new guys (& gals) look at historic performance and because of naturally inclined bias try to project that kind of performance forward. Most of us prefer to assume positive outcomes and often reject downside risks because that's seen by peers and industry to be negative instead of realistic. It doesn't fit well with an entrepreneurial culture. The experienced PI on the other hand has been well and truly indoctrinated and that's been reinforced by a continuously growing property market over the last 60 years. The experienced PI often has a strong portfolio of performing assets with healthy debt to equity ratios and rental yields that can take some downside pressures without too much damage to the bottom line. That engenders a sense of confidence and coupled with anecdotal advise persuades new PI's it's a relatively simple exercise to embark on a fortune making adventure.

    The reality is that past performance doesn't guarantee success and few understand we may be on the eve of a new economic super cycle or are simply not prepared to accept it as a possibility. I suspect that we are and that it will parallel the 1890 – 1950 super cycle where property depreciated on average over that time. The drivers of this next cycle will see a deleveraging world trying get balance sheets back in order. Given the size and growth of debt this cycle could be as long as the 1890 – 1950 cycle.

    From Wikipedia..deleveraging

    • …..it is found that almost every major financial crisis during the period of study has been followed by a period of deleveraging.

    Studying that particular cycle and current global debt issues should give PI's some insite in how to play this evolving market. Even a deleveraging market offers opportunities however it would be problematic to apply past/current property cycle strategies in the hope of achieving the same result.

    There are plenty who see the current economic crises as little more than a hiccup in global financial markets and that somehow politicians and the corporate banking sector will find solutions or muddle through. My personal take is that things are far more serious than most are willing to admit or the powers that be are willing to tell us. As I say to friends if you prepare for rain and rain comes then you'll do all right but if you prepare for rain and a hurricane comes will you survive. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Chooky88 wrote:
    Projects are on hold due to lack of staff and executive accommodation. It's a growing city.

    If you believe that you believe in fairies Chooky. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    I lived there for the last 4 years. Like I said wouldn't touch them with a barge pole.  1×1's are the most expensive RE there is up there.

    You're buying at full retail at the top of the cycle. If you think accommodation pressure will be sustained past the next 2 years you're in for a shock I think. 7/8 major projects in WA complete by the end of next year. All the demand is construction so watch the Pilbara empty out once they finish. 

    The big miners are starting to drop support staff around the country in their droves. Same with many of the big project companies. Some estimates suggest the project pipeline will halve over the next 12 months. I think it'll be more than that.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    A mate owned a servo back in NZ some years back. Graffiti was a problem and the odd bit of vandalism. He hired some of the local kids to do minor work, gardens, windows etc and to keep an eye on the place. Vandalism and graffiti stopped overnight.

    You might want to try the same strategy. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    So what is on the "To-Do-List"

    I imagine it's longer than a piece of string.

    Now here's an idea. Why don't you guys establish a new forum, Site Upgrade or something. Throw in a couple of threads like, Notifications Plans and Progress, Beta testing (if you guys do any that is), PC issues, Mac issues, Mobile issues with sub threads for Android, iPhone and Windows, etc etc etc.

    Now we might have a structured way that everyone can follow to get this mess sorted out instead of everyone posting their "wish lists" on every other thread.

    You can then start to establish some sort  of development plan (that hopefully won't another take 5 years to complete) and we can all feel like we're making some sort of progress (even if we aren't as yet).

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Sounds like you've had a few issues DK. 

    You have to be realistic. Renting your property is a commercial transaction and always has a risk element. PM's and insurance companies reduce financial risk but do nothing to eliminate the chance of default or damage.

    I feel sorry for PM's sometimes. Clients pay penny's in fees but expect 5 star treatment and service. A months worth of fees would barley cover one call out.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Yep know it. One of my favourite areas in Oz. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
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    Where are you?

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Wouldn't touch them with a barge pole. 

    Hold off for a while. There's a whole lot of things happening at the moment with regard to mining and resources and none of it looks too good. I'm getting anecdotal information of large numbers of layoffs at some sites and particularly in Perth (support/admin). The East Coast is having similar difficulties but mainly in coal. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Take a deep breath Jac these increases won't bankrupt you anytime soon. In reality the cost increases are less than 1% of rents on average and you get to claw some of that back in tax deductions. What's that … couple of dollars per week? Didn't we just see 2 interest rate reductions. Did you let your tenant know interests costs have gone down so you're lowering rents to be fair.. I think not.

    The reality of the situation is that all businesses are under cost/margin pressures. One could preserve margins if both sides of the ledger (tenant incomes) were rising together but they aren't. Landlords set rents based on what a market can tolerate. The quality of a tenant has value as well and that can be eroded or lost if rents are pushed above tolerance levels. 

    My guess is that it's going to be increasingly challenging to raise rents over the next 18 months. The tenant is also facing cost pressures along with employment security issues as well. 

    The idea of landlords acting together to collectively raising rents is fanciful. They all have differing priorities, cost/margin/income profiles. You're always going to compete with other landlords who have the most efficient/economical investment property. They can have good margins while still offering competitive rents. Welcome to the (almost) free market.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    I see that on the thread "recovery from 2012" Nooob has inquired about your investment strategy. I'm also curious what that might be.

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Lost track of that post for some reason – shaking out the wrinkles in this new site might be the cause.

    My investment strategy….

    PM miners (silver) although that's taken a battering over the last 6 months crying and business. I too like the control factor.

    I don't really chase wealth anymore. Maybe I'm getting old but I hope to die in debt. The thought of going to all that trouble to earn it only to leave it behind irks me. Besides I want to one-up the banks and those corporate knuckleheads with their snouts in the trough before I turn my toes up.

    I think we're too obsessed with wealth these days. I was reading this on ZeroHedge the other day. I think I need to re-examine my motives and philosophies in life..

    • “Living here as a boy, I wasn’t any different than anybody else. First time I knew I was poor was when I went to Cleveland and went to school They taught me I was poor. I traded all this for a strip of green I saw when I walking the street. And I was poor? How ya gonna get a piece of green grass between the sidewalk and the street, and they gonna tell me I’m poor. I thought I was the luckiest kid in the world, with nature. I could walk through the forest. I could hear the animals. I could hear the woods talk to me. Everywhere I looked there was life. I could pick my own apples or cucumbers. I could eat the berries and pawpaws. I love pawpaws. And they gooseberries. Now there is no life there. Only dust. I had a pigeon and when I’d come out of the house, no matter where I went, he flew over my head or sat on my shoulder. I had a hawk I named Fred, I had a bobcat and a three-legged fox that got caught in a trap. I wouldn’t trade that childhood for all the fancy fire trucks and toys the other kids had.

    ​The book might well be worth the read I'm thinking.

    I enjoyed your posts Moxi. Goodluck.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    JacM wrote:

    For goodness sake Freckle, this site is free and here for us to use to learn how to be wealthier.  A little bit of courtesy wouldn't go astray!

    Should I lie, pretend, offer false praise instead. What would you have me do Jac?

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