Replies Created | Forums | Freckle | PropertyInvesting.com

Forum Replies Created

Viewing 20 posts - 1,221 through 1,240 (of 1,635 total)

« 1 … 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 … 82 »

Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 30, 2012 - 12:06 am
wendyw wrote:
Freckle, my husband I have invested in the fund after much research and consideration. My husband is a true skeptic.
Then you probably understand the pros and cons better than most.
Quote:
I think Steve and his team have been too lax in allowing you so much space on the forums.
There's a fairly tight set of terms and conditions for members to adhere to on this forum. Some of the tightest I've come across in my 12 or more years on the net. Some do have space constraints for brevity I believe. Censorship based on whether or not one follows the owners philosophy would almost certainly kill the value of this site or restrict membership to the PI backslappers and ra ra club.
Quote:
I've found your comments bordering on offensive. We are not stupid and we do understand the risk of investing – whether here or overseas.
No one has implied anyone is stupid to my knowledge. This forum has a diverse range of members from the novice to the highly experienced professional. The site is very pro property investing to the point a lot of comment fails to provide a balanced view.
I personally find it offensive anyone would support the suppression of alternative views in a public forum.
Quote:
Most of us are long term members of Property Investing and we know Steve well enough to know he is honest, ethical and believable.
And I've said as much here
- For the record I consider you to be, highly motivated, knowledgeable, experienced and for the most part an ethical business person.
Quote:
He has given us the down side to the fund (PDS is nothing but down-side) rather than glossing over it.
The PDS is a statutory requirement on virtually all financial proposals. At best the presentations in total are highly biased to the upside and gloss over the down side. All new funds presented to the market regardless of where they come from talk up their prospects. I wouldn't expect them to do otherwise.
Quote:
So I'd be happy not to see any further negative posts from you.
I'm afraid you may be disappointed.
Quote:
Good luck Steve now the $20M has finally arrived!
Indeed good luck!!
~John Stuart Mill, On Liberty, 1859
We can never be sure that the opinion we are endeavoring to stifle is a false opinion; and if we were sure, stifling it would be an evil still.
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 28, 2012 - 2:58 pm
Yes. We all experience it especially when it's something we desire. Your point Gazza?
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 28, 2012 - 5:01 am
bardon wrote:
As the Guvnor has pointed out, this property bubble has been around for a very unbbublesque duration of time.
Agreed. The following graph illustrates that point. Previous bubbles were much shorter in duration and had relatively mild corrections. This one we're in is by contrast a humdinger. Invariably there will be a correction. The question is when and by how much. I would hope for an orderly correction. I believe we are in the early stages of that now. An orderly correction would enable the PI market to remain viable only shaking out the weakest which would leave opportunities for the more professional investor.
A crash type scenario is in no ones interest. I suspect though that this is going to unravel in unusual and unexpected ways. I have a strong feeling that property in resource intensive regions will take a pretty hard hit over the next 18 months and resource states like WA are vulnerable to a sudden downturn if panic creeps in to the market.
I was talking to the manager of a large building company here (Perth) and their order books are the weakest he's ever seen. The problem in WA is that the commercial construction area will suffer as resource infrastructure winds down or worse axed. Couple that with a drop in residential construction demand and suddenly you have a lot of trades and related businesses out of work or scratching to get by. Not one business owner I've spoken to over the last 2 months has said business is good. They're all working on small margins and fearful of any downturn in the local economy.
I'd like to think things will sort themselves out over time but nothing I see supports that.
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 27, 2012 - 2:14 pm
Go with the ultrasound guy first. If he can't detect running water disconnect your hot feed from tank to taps and push compressed air through the line. It should girgle or his. Sound detection should pick that up fairly easily. You can use one of those 12v tyre pumps to supply compressed air. $140
You can't make any decisions until you nail where this leak is.
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 27, 2012 - 6:18 am
Ran into this graph the other day and thought it was an accurate depiction of where the US RE market is heading. The so called recovery is heading into the mania section as institutional buyers hit the market with gathering momentum. When that momentum runs out…….
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 27, 2012 - 5:38 am
Most would consider commercial RE as land and buildings that enable someone else to run a business activity from. Once you get involved in a running a business from a property you blur the lines between property investor vs business owner.
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 27, 2012 - 1:59 am
When I watched Steve's Fund presentation and good ol' Uncle Zally whatever showcased his trailer park buys I started scratching my head as to what's this got to do with commercial RE.
Trailer parks aren't property buys they're business buys. His examples were about how to turn a business around the Chinese way; IE have half the family running/occupying key positions in the business.
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 27, 2012 - 1:52 am
Unfortunately in real life the hooker says "drinks on the house boys" and poof the money's gone.
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 26, 2012 - 3:35 am
Peachy you can buy an infrared thermometer for $30 off ebay You wont have to calibrating it if your just looking for a heat source as opposed to actually measuring temp
Turn off your hot water system (water supply) and check your meter again. This should indicate/confirm its a hot water side leak.
I think you need to assess if any of these were pre existing problems that could or should have been know about. The hot water thing sounds fishy to me. If you can show that any of these problems were pre existing and not disclosed to you as the buyer you may have a claim for compensation to rectify this problem.
I'm not sure if houses fall under the merchantable goods provisions in commercial transactions. Some of the legal beagles here may be able to clear that one up
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 26, 2012 - 3:14 am
zmagan wrote:
Japan has a few more rounds (and years) in its economic arsenal and room to maneuver, and nothing like the basic barrel of gunpowder that was the Greek administration pre crisis.
You're deluding yourself if you believe that. If Japan had more rounds and room to move then why is it waiting this long to fix the problem. 20+ years??? Truth is it has nothing and no ability to get itself out of this mess. Personally I don't think that it's too far away for a number of reasons.
1. Japan borrows internally mainly from pension funds. They now are reaching points where draw down exceeds contributions. Pension funds are looking to sell their JGB back to meet their obligations. Consequently this past source of government borrowing will only add pressure to the economy as it has to repay debt and looses it as a source simultaneously. A double wammy!!
2. Fukushima and the accompanying decision to get out of nuclear energy has ramped up energy costs substantially. Production is now moving offshore looking for cheaper options to remain competitive. Export earnings and tax revenues are declining because of this.
3. Global downturn has seen Japan start to run trade deficits
4. A dispute with China could have severe trade implications for both countries. Japan will suffer disproportionately to China. It will mean lost trade and increasing military costs.
5. 50% of the annual budget is borrowed money
6. Japans debt is 250% of GDP. and real GDP growth is in decline
Japan has the worst economic profile of any country in the world. It is many magnitudes worse than Greece. We are nearing the end of Japan's ability to borrow from its people. In the very near future Japan will have to borrow externally to fund itself. When that happens Japan will probably collapse economically. Who's going to lend them money at 0% interest??
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 25, 2012 - 8:16 am
Japan. The next Greece. Wonder how long they'll be able to spin that along before the land of the rising sun becomes another 3rd world country.
You'll have competition for cheap property I'm sure Jay. Good thing about Japan is there won't be any war zones like the US and they'll be ever so helpful and polite. Getting ripped off will be unusual rather than highly likely.
It'll be a mecca for the idiot investor who shuns DD. Japs are just too darn honest and polite. Ask Ziv!!
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 25, 2012 - 2:55 am
kylermrice wrote:
If i can do it, why can't the foreign investor do it with the aide of good honest people in the states? If nobody was having success then the idea would have died a long time ago.
Plenty do but as a percentage of overall investors it's less than 1%
Quote:
There are people everyday that make the same mistakes in States. Cali buyers that buy the same (rubbish) properties that OZ buyers gets.
I think that's true in a all markets. If you actually look at ALL PI's you'll notice that around 60% don't make any money at all because they have no idea what they're doing. They think they do simply because a property is worth more 30 years later. They conveniently forget about inflation, financing cost, maintenance, fees/taxes etc etc. Then you have that grey zone of 30% who just break even to making good coin over time. The next 7% do very well – the pro investor. The last 3% are the expert come guru kinda guys.
Quote:
I would figure one of the safest bets would be to own a house in the States.
I think there's a few zillion of your countrymen who might disagree with you on that point. You've had the biggest property collapse in history and it's still a long way from over.
Quote:
There's a reason that the Latins bought up premier Florida and China bought up the west coast.
South America, especially Brazil, and China saw an explosion of wealth over the last decade primarily driven by China's high growth rate and massive stimulus program after the GFC. The GFC illustrated how fragile local economies could be in times of stress. Those with wealth looked for safe havens outside of their own economies that offered some level of safe haven value for wealth. The Chinese see property as a place to store wealth not necessarily as an investment. Capital flight from China is huge. Even with economic stimulus their CB balance sheet is contracting.
Florida was a natural repository for Latino investment. It ticked all the right boxes due to it's cultural familiarity. The West Coast offers the same kind of cultural familiarity for the Chinese.
All investment isn't smart investment. There are a lot of sheep out there. The american property market is a grave yard and many simply see an opportunity to buy something cheap. My guess is that many will find it's their own (investment) grave yard they're buying in.
Quote:
Investing is a job, not a hobby….
So true
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 25, 2012 - 1:00 am
kylermrice wrote:
With what is happening in USA how do you think this will affect Australian property prices?
It has little if any direct affect currently. GFC 2 would cause a headache or two I'm sure.
Quote:
Do you recommend to hold off purchasing property in Australia for now?
Difficult. For me there's not a lot of value in the market. It's tracking sideways as we wait to see one way or another when or if the continuing GFC debacle gets resolved once and for all. I think the GFC mess will take decades to resolve so unless somene can point to a new substantive engine for growth it's likely to stay this way. It will be much harder for PI's to pick winners in this market.
Quote:
I am really surprised about the cost of living in OZ, how can you jusify the absurd prices you have on your properties.
I can't. Successive governments who have feed the economy with cheap credit over decades and policies that subsidise the property market have fueled speculation. Throw in State governments milking developers and buyers for all they're worth and you have an over priced market to show for it. It's estimated that 40% of a new property is taxes
Quote:
Freckle talks about resources and raw metals more than he does about the real estate markets.
AU's economy is 30% resources. Over the last 20 years it has underpinned a significant part of the economy as China boomed. It's benefits have largely been squandered and mismanaged by governments and states eager to grab a share. WA for example is a land mass at least a 1/3 of the US land mass. It's massive yet only has a population of 2.3million. 80% of the economy here is resources. The last 2 decades here have been built on resource expansion and that's coming to an end.
The Northern Territories and Queensland have similar stories. Resources a are significant player in the property story here.
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 24, 2012 - 12:54 pm
Arrium (ex One Steel) is probably the Saviour for Whyalla. Reopening the old Iron Baron mine plus it's proposed growth strategy should see the town at least tick over at a reasonable pace for a few years yet.
Given the current resource sector downturn I wouldn't plan on anything too extravagant happening to Whyalla for a decade or two. If the price of ore drops further and stays down then that operation becomes questionable. This kind of uncertainty and perceived risk is likely to suppress any growth over the next few years.
If you have a property their and its 1/10 then you could afford to leave it and take a punt on it making a good dollar somewhere down the track but if its 1/1 or 1/3 then you're better off quitting it and moving your $$$'s somewhere more predictable. The last thing you want is a non performer dragging on your portfolio or acting as a brake on your growth opportunities.
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 24, 2012 - 12:01 pm
Read this
http://www.yourmortgage.com.au/article/buying-with-other-people-79400.aspx
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 24, 2012 - 11:54 am
MyRoom wrote:
I expect the Aust., dollar to fall in the medium term.
I wouldn't bet on it. The FED is on a mission to keep the dollar low to at least give their economy some chance of competitiveness.
Quote:
Once the Australian dollar returns to more historical norm levels, (at least back to USD.0.80) if I had borrowed CNY then I've lost the benefit of the appreciating Chinese currency, actually it would all be working against me.
The CYN has been steadily appreciating against the dollar after they unpegged from the dollar back in mid 2010 but it's still heavily controlled. The AUD vs the CYN has been pretty steady of the last 10 years with the CYN loosing some value.
There's speculation the RBA may reduce interest rates here to put downward pressure on the AUD but my guess is any move will only have a temporary affect if at all.
If you buy anything here you want to make sure its at the very least neutrally geared. You do not want to be propping up an AU property with Chinese funny money
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 24, 2012 - 3:15 am
Where's this happening??
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 24, 2012 - 3:13 am
BHP Billiton axes NRW contract
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/BHP-axes-NRW-contract-pd20120924-YETBB?OpenDocument&src=edbyo&ir=3
BHP Billiton Ltd has announced it will axe its Port Hedland project, with the impact to be felt largely by project contractor NRW Holdings Ltd, The Australian Financial Review reports.
According to the newspaper, BHP has terminated part of a $120 million contract for work at its iron ore blending yards in Western Australia.
It is understood BHP is set to pay as much as 10 per cent of the value of project contracts to opt out of the agreements with NRW and two other contractors.
A spokesman for NRW has confirmed the termination and said they were still yet to determine the financial impact of the decision on NRW.
That's going to hurt. NRW do mainly formation earth works. They employ a lot of people mostly in camps I think with maybe a small part of their lower to middle management in housing
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 24, 2012 - 3:04 am
worldinvestor wrote:
This is not good, I have a girlfriend who has purchased a development site in Karatha to build 10 units, joint venture.
I thought this was very high risk at this time of the cycle. Looks like I could be right.
WI
Don't write Karratha off just yet. The Woodside LPG project mooted for north of Broome may just end up being a pipeline to the Dampier processing and port facility.
In saying that though I think anything property related in resource intense towns is suicidal to say the least. I can't see any long term viability with property at this point
Freckle
Blocked
@freckle
Join Date: 2012
Post Count: 1,680
September 24, 2012 - 2:56 am
Clutching at straws again Bardon. The graph while very dramatic is an illusion. A tiny movement of 551.02 low to a high of 565.08. It's a nationally aggregated index so I'm not sure it's actually telling us anything
Their annualised capital city index tells a somewhat different story
The good news is the bust hasn't happened… yet!