Forum Replies Created

Viewing 20 posts - 981 through 1,000 (of 1,635 total)
  • Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    grimnar wrote:
    No sense keeping it in cash

    Yes there is. The expectation is a market crash/correction not simply an equities/individual stock or class of stocks. The contagion could spread to bonds, derivatives options etc. Cash and or treasuries would be seen as safe in that context even with negative returns. 

    These moves are about conservation and preservation of wealth. He who looses the least wins.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    DWolfe wrote:
    IAre they buying anything?

    Anything that will retain value in a market correction.

    Quote:
    It's pretty unlikely they will let the cash sit in the bank….. especially if they are the financial elite as your last paragraph implies.

    D

    Why not. The Fed underwrites the TBTF banks and the US$ may even rally in a crash. When the dust settles they buy back in. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    This is why. S&P is in a Fed fueled bubble. The pattern is pretty obvious. The writing is on the wall as they say.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    Jpcashflow wrote:
    Freckle, why not run an internet course then? $40 bucks a pop x 100 = you do the math hahah.

    $4k… $40k for a weeks work and I might get interested.

    Inet courses – dime a dozen and not my thing. My interest is strictly business management and there are good pro courses you can do at tertiary institutions. I looked at business coaching many years ago but it looked more like life counseling than coaching so I flagged it.

    Quote:
    Paul does make some valid points, I think going to these events are good for a couple of reasons

    1) Keeps you focused

    2) you meet some postive people who may have the same goals as you.

    I'm the opposite. Never had a problem with focus other than too much focus at times to the detriment of other things.

    God save me from people at seminars!!

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    RPI wrote:
    Cheers Freckle

    I am heading for 20 years of business experience to varying degrees at varying times Some businesses making hundreds of thousands are a year, a couple that cost me dollars.

    I hear ya! The joys of being self employed.

    Quote:
    Wife has been a planner since 1997 so seen some ups and downs.

    Always good to have reserves on the team. wink (Don't tell her I said that)

    Quote:
    Timor would be interesting but would have to see how it ties in with the law practice, I like the way they feed into each other.

    JV Partnership come startup (planning, consultancy, legal) with a couple of savvy Timorese law grads?? Base an office in Darwin. I think that's where most of the international companies doing biz in Timor hang out. Lots of expansion both commercial and residential happening there. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    Been shaggin' around with businesses for the last 30 odd years Joe. My Maltese daughter-in-law calls me Wiki.. I've coached a few businesses over the years. Usually people I know who've fallen in a hole and can't figure a way out.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    RPI wrote:
    Hi Freckle

    The contraction of planning firms happened in a big way last year, it was one year too far for many.  

    I started in heavy construction when I was 16. I don't think I've ever known a time when the building industry wasn't flying or crashing.

    Quote:
    It may happen again, but I am taking advantage of this contraction to expand in these areas.

    Nothing wrong with that. Leapfrog on the demand surges. You do need a long strategy though to ensure you capture market share in growth phases and not volume share only. You also need a counter-balancing strategy when demand falls off. This might involve diversification into other planning centric activities or alternately activities with a flatter demand profile to even out revenues and staffing efficiency issues.

    Quote:
    We do jobs for a couple of architects all over Qld so could push those areas if it contracted again.

    One thing you should look at is business size and service (inventory) offerings. It's very hard for a small business (3 seats) to cope with market/economic fluctuations and continue growing as opposed to say 50 seats and diversified expertise. As a small business you might want to look at collaborative business approach through formal business partnerships with like minded and complimentary businesses. It's a sum of the parts are greater than the whole approach to enhancing survivability.

    Quote:
    Plus my business structure is very efficient and flexible

    Definitely good but as you grow these attributes can be lost without good forward planning.

    Quote:
    But I always appreciate hearing others, especially the cautious opinions.  Thanks for your feedback.

    Have you thought about overseas branches? Timor comes to mind as a place with considerable potential for your line of work.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    If I ran a small business course nobody would turn up. If I ran an internet business course I'd sell out with out too many problems. People think the internet is the answer to their problems. The reality is it distracts from the real issues in running a business. It's the "Get rich quick" mindset. The internet is a tool. That's all it is. Gehl teaches a particulate selling and marketing strategy. Basically the inet hard sell. A rollover from direct marketing which is well over 100 years old. It's about 1% of what you need to know and in most businesses is barely applicable.

    I learnt it in the mid 80's working for AMP selling financial products. The day I left that place was the last day I ever used that approach in business ever again.

    But like I said if you know sweet ….. all then you have to start somewhere. I can think of better places though.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    From a business expansion point of view I think you're skating on thin ice. The graphic tells a fairly obvious story. New sales are on a steep descent trajectory with occasional small rallies that wither fairly quickly. That's been going on since 03. Approvals have tracked reasonably well against sales but now we have a significant divergence. I would expect to see a bounce in sales if some good economic news eventuates but we're in an election year and things aren't getting better by any stretch. 

    The upside is there have been 6 up or ascending years (approvals) against 4 rather steep descending years. Approvals are down 40% from their 07 highs with a definite down trend though. The graphic suggest approvals may have topped again in Dec 12. I expect to see another sharp descent continuing the trend in 2013. 

    For business planning purposes I would be looking for a volume vacuum behind this current demand surge and be planning how to cope with that by about mid 2013. You might want to consider how you can become more geographically flexible given the nature of the business if you want to retain/maintain an elevated top line and staffing. You also want to get a firm handle on the competition and see if they are expanding as well. When the contraction invariably comes there'll be more capacity fighting over a smaller market for sure.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    TheFinanceShop wrote:
    Colorbond fencing …………they are far more durable than palings. 

    Shahin

    Wouldn't say that. Paling (pine) fencing is the standard in NZ. MY old man's fences are still good today and they're 50yrs old.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    Jamie M wrote:
    have the company invoice all parties separately 

    Jamie

    Absolutely.

    Fencing was how I started my contracting career many moons ago. Definitely not a problem and quite common for multi party fences. A complete refencing job can involve 7+ parties.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    Terry can confirm but the owner and agent are required by law to disclose anything and everything that is material to the sale. Any component of the property be it the house, out buildings, pools, verandas etc etc that have been constructed without council approval IE a permit effectively renders any contract null and void.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    Get a broker to handle it for you… simple.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    RPI wrote:
      Hi All

    This is very much due to the increasing workload in the development market and the returning confidence in the market.

    The planning and law firms are flat out, 

    D

    Interesting. I hope it works out for you. Construction is such a fickle game.

    What's driving your market? I suspect reconstruction from successive weather disasters is soaking up available resources rather than returning confidence.

    The stats certainly do not point to confidence as a driver.

    http://www.oesr.qld.gov.au/products/briefs/building-approvals/building-approvals-201212.pdf

    This could be a problem. Sales are diverging from approvals….????? Are developers/builders detaching from reality and swallowing the MSM message of the 'recovery' meme?

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    VistaView wrote:
     they will be calling the police(yes the police)

    ROFL…. 

    Fred!!   you used to be a sparky. Get over to this place and check it out… take a SWAT team with you it looks serious.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    Quote:
    even with aircon on all night is still hot.

    Which suggests thermal loading during the day and convective heat are the primary problems.

    Not an unusual problem in inner city apt's. The main culprit is that the shear volume of thermal mass within a city magnifies the heat. So roads, masonry and metal materials all collect and store heat during the day. At night those materials reverse that cycle releasing it back at you. 

    Once your apt's thermal properties have been loaded up it's an expensive job to reduce the thermal load with ac's unfortunately. I suspect shading will only partially solve your problem as that only addresses the radiant heat portion of the problem. 

    Fans and a bigger ac are your only option if shading can't reduce heat build up enough.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    There will be no recovery. That's an illusion. The top 10% have been mining the wealth of the bottom 90% since the mid 80's. You get a recovery when wealth is evenly distributed across a population.

    Some interesting graphs on wealth distribution. 

    Note USA, Europe & Asia Pacific. The majority of the wealth resides at the top

    Worse is that these countries/regions control the majority (80%+) of global wealth.

    The Fed is absolutely paranoid about the EU going under and you can see why. It's economy is bigger than the US and they are inextricably linked. One falls they both fall. A crises in one area is automatically a crises in the other. The Fed has been pumping as much dosh into local foreign banks as it does its own trying to underwrite their solvency while juicing the markets.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-02/how-feds-latest-qe-just-another-european-bailout-vehicle

    The fact that wealth is migrating to the top is the single biggest obstacle to a recovery. The biggest consumer blocks in the world are becoming poorer and QE is accelerating that fact through inflation which is simply a wealth transfer mechanism.

    There are people out there who think that because you control your own currency and can print that you can manage this when in fact all you're doing is exacerbating the problem. There are those who believe in US omnipotence because they've been the top guy for so long. There are those who read the Saturday paper and see an article pumping the local markets and somehow discern from that the next property boom is just around the corner.

    People see what they want to see because reality is just too scary for most or simply hold the blaise attitude' She'll be right mate' . Cognitive dissonance.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    Just go to do your numbers Miz. They're as viable as anything. You have to evaluate them on a comparative basis. So if an old but reno'd house existed on your site now what would its value be today. You have to beat that price by at least 30% to make it worthwhile. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    I've got several hammers in my tool box. A sledge, a 1Kg, a claw, a ball peen and a brad/tack hammer. None are better than the other. They just have different uses at different times. Together they get the jobs done better than if I just had one or two.

    When you stop looking at a particular investment class as better than another you'll become a smarter investor.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    rusty05 wrote:
    And all accurate!

    It's pretty straight forward stuff. There's a million forums on the web based around how to be an net wizkid. You soon learn how to sort the wheat from the chaff.

Viewing 20 posts - 981 through 1,000 (of 1,635 total)