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AU banks are as vulnerable as any bank in the world. Their assets and equity levels are so small that even small moves against the value of their assets leaves them technically insolvent.A liquidity crises and or collapse in any part of the global system leaves them vulnerable depending on how the dominos fall. Their derivative exposure alone is through the roof.
Australia's banks' combined exposure to toxic derivatives obligations has climbed to $20 trillion.
The CBA is the 11th largest bank and 5th most profitable. Around 35% of the bank is owned (controlled) by JPM and HSBC
mcollins wrote:I think the returns are very good. prices are up 120-150% in the last 10 years all whilst yields are 7-8% so basically the gains came free.RPData trend shows absolutely flat as a pancake since 07 so I'm mystified where you get 120-150% cg from
Graphs below are from Domain
This is fairly generalised data but the price growth trend is fairly loud. The big drivers of price growth have largely dissipated in the Rocky region. I wouldn't expect to see price growth return to pre 07 levels any time soon.
You can hire commercial floor sanders that'll do your floor no probs.
Different grade grit paper for ripping to finishing. Get a smaller hand sander for the edges. This is the type you need not the handy man stuff. You can hire these from memory.
Last time I did this was on a mates burn out house. It was a new extension with recycled Jarrah floors. Filthy job but they came up brilliant when we finished
Either that or get the pro guys into do it for you.
QLD Govt Industry job trends and statistics
Trend employment in Queensland rose 0.1% in December
2013. Employment in trend terms has now risen in 14 of the
last 15 months (see Chart 1). Over the year to December,
trend employment grew 35,200 persons, accounting for
around three quarters of national jobs growth. This was driven
by a 38,800 increase in part-time employment, while full-time
employment fell 3,600. Today’s results show that Queensland
recorded the strongest trend employment growth of any State
over the year to December 2013 (Table 2).
The problem trend to watch here is that full time jobs are being lost while part time (often low paid) jobs are growing. What full time job growth there is mainly features highly skilled occupations and industries. These sectors don't tend to employ large numbers of people. I have a problem with the construction and mining sectors suggested by QLD Gov due to the huge drop off in CapEx as the mining expansion continues to wind down. I've never been a huge fan of state treasury predictions especially after the poly's have had a go at them.
Industries expected to record employment growth to 2016–2017 include:
- health care and social assistance
- professional, scientific and technical services
- construction
- mining.
These industries are forecast to provide more than 60% of employment growth in the next 5 years. Growth is also likely in those jobs that require higher skill levels (e.g. Bachelor degrees, advanced diplomas).
I definitely wouldn't bank on these projections. I would think a gradual increase in unemployment is far more likely.
Australia
You can build thematic maps here that give very good breakdowns of employment across QLD. SE Qld is quite detailed
http://statistics.oesr.qld.gov.au/qld-thematic-maps
Interesting tool.
The world is full of optimists and very few realists. There are many here who think that because a bust was called some years back and that it hasn't arrived yet, that we have escaped the bullet. What they don't realise is that we are already in a bust. It's here and it's real. Just because one hasn't been touched by it yet doesn't mean one won't be touched by it in the future. We are still in the early stages of this bust and there will be situations that are completely opposite to bust conditions. Property markets in AU are largely intact and performing as usual but that's not due to healthy fundamentals but distortionary fiscal and monetary policy that is, for the time being, maintaining the status quo. The full effects of this bust won't be felt until those supports become so unstable that they collapse.
F.Wiley's article provides a view on why this bust will be so much more destructive than previous ones.
Not only has the global, non-defense budget balance dropped to never-before-seen levels, but it’s falling along a trend line that shows no sign of flattening. The trend line spells fiscal disaster. It suggests that we’ve never been in a predicament comparable to today. Essentially, the world’s developed countries are following the same path that’s failed, time and again, in chronically insolvent nations of the developing world.
Look at it this way: the chart shows that we’ve turned the economic development process inside out. Ideally, advanced economies would stick to the disciplined financial practices that helped make them strong between the early-19th and mid-20th centuries, while emerging economies would “catch up” by building similar track records. Instead, advanced economies are catching down and threatening to throw the entire world into the kind of recurring crisis mode to which you’re accustomed if you live in, say, Buenos Aires.
…the good news if one can call it that…
On the bright side, a fiscal disaster should help trigger the needed changes. Every kick of the can lends more weight to the view expressed by some that the debt super-cycle – including public and private debt – needs to go the distance, eventually reaching a Keynesian end game of massive collapse. At that time, we would expect a return to old-fashioned, conservative attitudes toward debt.
PLC wrote:He says we're the best place in the world to survive a crisis yet predicts falls of 30-50%. If that isn't doom and gloom then what is? If he is indeed correct on his supposition then house prices will be the last thing on the mind of the average Joe as they won't have a house to live in due to being turfed out and living on the street.
Your reaction is the typical over reaction and lack of understanding of how things will affect people. Dents 30 – 50% reflect estimates of decreases in some markets but not all. The US provides a model of how some areas and markets get hit hard while others are barely touched. Those parts of the market that are hurt the most can expect corrections in the 30 – 50% but that may only affect 40% of the entire market.
Quote:Ever since the turn of this century, someone or another has predicted a bubble in the Australian market with dramatic consequences. Those prospective homebuyers/investors who listened to them and held off purchasing due to the fear of declining house prices, would have missed out on huge opportunities to get ahead in life.A generalisation that doesn't tell us much. There's been plenty of booms and busts over the last century.
The reality is that it can boom in one area (mining towns) and bust in others (Melbourne)
Property speculation never really took off until the 70's when currencies where delinked from gold and went full FIAT. Property values only rose on comparable debt creation.
The vast majority of property investors (60 – 80%) in real terms not nominal made bugger all out of the 70's – 90's credit boom.
Quote:Of course prices may retreat, they have before and I have no doubt they will again. But to heed the word of those whose predictions are in the self interest of whatever they are promoting at the current time, I will take with a grain of salt. If he is correct, then kudos to him, he finally hit that bullseye on the dartboard.You can argue that Dent is promoting his book and himself but be careful about throwing the baby out with the bath water. Currently EM currencies are collapsing with several in dire starlights (Turkey, Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Ukraine, China), DM's in difficulty (Japan, Sth Korea, France, Spain, Portugal, UK, Italy), manufacturing contracting on consumer exhaustion, growing unemployment trends globally on weakening global demand.. I could go on and on about how many seriously bad economic problems are manifesting themselves with little or no good economic news to counteract current trends. You would have to be blind as a bat and eternally optimistic to not see a serious global economic situation is developing.
Quote:How so? It's a fundamental concept of price determination in economics.Supply and demand may be aspect of price determination but there are other more powerful forces that can determine prices. There is no shortage of property as the industry would have the market believe. That myth gets debunked regularly. The demand spigot is controlled by many players such as developers who along with other industry players try to generate a perception of shortages to motivate demand. But at the end of the day demand can only be energised if liquidity remains available. The US property market saw severe corrections in many of its markets when liquidity froze. Even when liquidity was restored the markets continued to decline even though demand existed and literally 10's of 1000's of homes (supply) have been virtually abandoned.
We are currently seeing price influenced by federal and State fiscal policy, RBA rate controls and bank lending criteria. Add to that foreign hot money flows and construction markets targeting foreign investors and you get a far more complex picture.
Pressure on Japan continues as foreign capital votes with its feet and bails on Japanese stocks. At this rate Abenomics will be dead within the month. It'll be interesting to see what the BOJ does to counter an impending Nikkie collapse…
- ….the last time flow swung so violently negative, the Nikkei ended up losing 55% in the next 18 months.
- This outflow was 3x the size of the entire selling following the tumble in May/June last year.
engelorumora wrote:Why did the other post get deleted?lol
C'mon Grasshopper keep up
