Forum Replies Created
Terry expanding on why things will get bad for the average Jp citizen.
Abe's printing until the cows come home to try and achieve several things;
- inflate (2% target) away debt. The problem with this is the average Joe is the primary supplier of the loans to the JPG. When your lending money at virtually 0% deflation works for you but inflation kills you.
- Pump the stock market so people feel richer. Problem is (see graphics below) the japanese have very little in the stock market so gains are minimal
- Devalue the currency. As mentioned collateral damage will be via imports especially fuel and energy
You're a newbie… get the experience. When you've bought 20 or 30 so properties no worries
…….is it wise to buy without inspection first?
Ever played russian roulette
Yep. This one in particular throws up a few questions about the next super cycle (60-70yrs)
Oil is currently rising in US$ terms while JPY vs USD is literally collapsing. Implied target is $1.04 ($0.9317 today)
It's not just oil but everything else Japan imports. Everything will have to go up eventually. Abe's after 2% inflation but it's likely he'll get more than he bargained for.
I see a disaster in the making for Japan unfortunately. It may be the first of the major economies to implode.
A little OT but look out for inflation.
The charts below show recent movements in international benchmark prices relevant to the price of petrol and diesel in Australia. These market prices include the Singapore price of petrol (MOPS95 Petrol) and diesel (Gasoil 10ppm sulfur) and the market prices for Tapis and Dated Brent Crude Oil.
grimnar wrote:Again though, value at the end of the mayhem purely depends on whether or not your currency still holds a value. Market crash resulting from currency collapse would be a total reset!
I can't get my head around a total currency collapse model at the moment. CB's are largely acting in concert albeit trying to work around their respective political masters who in Japan's case want to actually hold the reins (heaven forbid) The political muppets scare me more than the banksters.
My instincts tell me that currencies will be destroyed after a reset. I tend to think it will look like an immediate post GFC08 kinda environment but without the stability fixes they employed then (or nothing that works for any length of time). Sovereign defaults could look ugly and I think the bogeyman is going to be derivatives but a 1000 x worse than last time.
Japanese Bonds… they're a gonna fursure.
Here comes the pain…
Nigel Kibel wrote:Some of the experts believe there will be a big correction. That's why I believe property is a better and safer investment.Only if you're not leveraged.
Quote:If shares do fall people may put more money into property again.The vast majority of potential buyers are middle class and above. They got smashed in the last GFC.
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Half of $1m plus investors report GFC losses of up to 30%.
Australia’s wealthy have endured significant losses following the GFC with around half reporting a loss in assets of up to 30%, pushing nearly one quarter of investors out of the $1m + asset bracket.
- there has been significant growth in the number of high net worth individuals leaning towards ultra-conservative investment decisions with around 43% registering as risk averse in 2009 compared with 11.5% in 2007.
- Currently more than half (51.3%) of HNW individuals see cash and cash-like assets as the best investment option, with property, Australian shares and International shares ranking behind
Property prices have been mostly flat since Dec09. There's no real evidence money fled to property for safety. The GFC property price reaction (muted) may lead to a false sense of security for those looking at property as a safe haven investment if the share market corrects significantly. If the markets correct there is no resource boom to back-stop the Australian economy this time around. I would expect to see serious problems evolve within the Australian property market on all fronts.
