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  • Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Big John wrote:

    http://www.citydata.com – this is fantastic.

    ????   Page lists the domain for sale

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    John-USA-CommercialRE wrote:

    Metro Orlando is slated to see home prices go up 3 percent this year, which ranked 26th among the nation’s top 50 markets, said Truckee, Calif.-based ClearCapital’s Home Data Index Market Report. The region in 2012 saw home prices increase 8.6 percent when compared with the previous year and 1.2 percent quarter-over-quarter, the report said. 

    Hmmm OK well we have a conflict of data then.

    The Urban Land Institute's data illustrates a point about industry data. Of the 3 mobs providing data NAR, FHFA and Case Schiller none seem to be consistent with each other.

    ULI Real Estate MetroStats

    HOUSE PRICES & HOME-OWNERSHIP

    Now to make my point again! Month to month or year to year stats don't mean much too me. They're snapshots. Even trendlines can be misleading if taken out of context. What you guys continue to show is a lack of understanding in what makes these markets tick and where thay are likely to go and most important of all what the risks are.

    As I keep on asking and you guys keep on evading the request; show me something tangible that supports your contention that the Florida market is an investable proposition. I don't want to take a bust tour and I don't want to read feel good articles from the local rag.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    From your first link.  Just a few salient points.  Fairly accurate I thought.

    • Systemic global economic turmoil, hobbled credit markets, and government deficits, meanwhile, will continue to restrain anxious industry leaders who downplay chances for a faster-tracked upturn amid uncertainty. Investors discouraged about stratospherically priced core properties in gateway markets inevitably will “chase yield,” stepping up activity in secondary markets and acquiring more commodity assets. These players will need to focus prudently on current income–producing investments and avoid the surfeit of properties edging toward obsolescence, especially certain suburban office parks and some half-empty second- or third-tier shopping centers. Most areas can sustain little if any new commercial construction, given relatively lackluster tenant demand and the generally weak employment outlook. Only the multifamily housing sector continues to offer solid development opportunities,

      although interviewees grow more concerned about potential overbuilding in markets with low barriers to entry—probably occurring by 2014 or 2015.

    • The real estate capital markets maintain a turtle’s pace for resolving legacy-loan problems as the wave of maturing commercial mortgages gains

      force over the next three years.

    • Low interest rates have bailed out lenders and underwater borrowers, but interviewees warn against complacency and recommend preparation for eventual rate increases.

    • more intergenerational sharing of housing occurs to pool resources among children (seeking employment), their parents (reduced wages and benefits), and grandparents (limited pensions and savings).

    • Emerging Trends respondents continue to favor apartments over

      all other sectors, although pricing has probably peaked and rent growth will subside in markets with an upsurge in multifamily development activity.

    • Core real estate seems overpriced: plowing money into top properties at sub-5 percent cap rates looks unproductive, especially if and when interest rates “inevitably” go up. “It’s not the smartest thing to do” and “could get ugly out there,” except for buyers and long-term holders of the best properties in the best locations.

    • Traders always get in trouble when they price real estate “as a commodity.” And that is the ongoing issue for today’s chastened buyers: too much product looks no better than that— commodity

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    What makes you think I haven't wink

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    A tip when you do long run walls. Over time they tend to walk and bulge out of line. You can mitigate this by curving walls or changing angles as in a zig zag style. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    I'm assuming your building to sell so esthetics will be important. I'm also assuming you'll do nothing until you're at the landscape stage.

    The ground is fairly solid and height really isn't an issue so stacked masonry is probably you best bet all round. I say that because on your site a stacked interlocking stone/brick style has an indefinite life span.

    If you google "masonry retaining walls" and search images rather than web you'll get a whole range of fairly straight forward schematics and plenty of illustrative masonry designs from stone wall to stacked block to the mortar jointed versions.

    You'll just need to know what councils minimum requirements might be. A simple footing be it compacted gravel or sand then a stacked brick configuration will probably offer the cheapest per mtr rate as well as esthetic considerations. Just about a DIY job if your at all handy with a few tools. I'd hire in a cpl of labourers to do the heavy lifting and layout. A good source of casual labor are the removal companies. They usually have a few guys floating around looking for filler work.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    If you think I'm pessimistic. I haven't got diddley on this guy and he's one cleva cookie.

    Interview with John Williams of Shadowstats

    John believes the real unemployment rate is 22%, not 8.1%, which is why it still feels like a recession. He also calculates the CPI at 6%, not 2.8%, and explains how the government manipulates the rate of inflation. Lastly, John believes the US is still on track for hyperinflation in 2014 as we near the coming fiscal cliff.

    John received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth’s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. Formally known as Walter J. Williams, his friends call him John. For nearly 30 years, John has been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    It seems like a fairly descent chunk of land. Is it subdividable/developable. What are your intentions for it? The reason I ask is that will have some bearing on how you go about this and what style will suite.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Guess where a large portion of Florida's exports go…

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    So here's an opinion from someone who should know intimately what's happening within the Euro Zone.

    I give you….

    Saxo Bank CEO Says Euro Is Doomed as Currency Woes Resurface

    • “The whole thing is doomed,” Christensen said yesterday in an interview at the bank’s Dubai office. “Right now we’re in one of those fake solutions where people think that the problem is contained or being addressed, which it isn’t at all.”

    • “Another possible fallout is getting rid of some of the countries that are being ruined by being in the euro, notably the southern European economies,” Christensen said. “People have been dramatically underestimating the problems the French are going to get from this. Once the French get into a full- scale crisis, it’s over. Even the Germans cannot pay for that one and probably will not.”

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Blimey. Resurrecting 2 year old threads now.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Another scary thing happening out there is no ones really spending heaps as can be seen by a surprising build up in cash deposits over loans. But where are all those excess cash deposits going?  Read on…

    A Record $2 Trillion In Deposits Over Loans – The Fed's Indirect Market Propping Pathway Exposed

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    The velocity of money (volume of transactions within an economy) suggests things are much tougher for Joe public than many realise.

    If this bounces, and I have a hard time understanding how it could given the current dilemma, then inflation is likely to ramp with it implying the Fed may have to move on interest rates which in turn up it's own costs. The Fed is in a no-win situation so they're stuck like a rabbit in the headlights. Hold and hope is there only solution and they're fast running out of time.

    Slowest Global Economic Growth Since the 2009 Recession

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    What you guys fail to realise is that the US economy and by default state economies rely on a direct IV line into the US economies arm kindly provided by the FED. With out QE juice the US economy tanks – much like a drug addict when they don't get their fix.

    Every time the Fed turns the tap off the US economy starts to tank.

    The biggest asset the Fed has is a big arse printer that runs 24/7. This printer wasn't designed to run 24/7 indefinitely nor can it. So whadaya think will happen when the day comes to pull the plug? I got a fair idea.

    The US is like a drug addict now addicted to QE. But like most drug addicts it didn't start out that way. A bit of morphine to control the pain is OK when you're sick. The common sense thing to do is fix the problem so you don't need pain killers anymore. But like a terminal patient who can't be fixed because they really don't know how and anyway the system is much sicker than anyone ever imagined. So they need to up the dose as preceding doses diminish in effectiveness.

    Pretty soon like most drug addicts you need a fix just to stay normal but now you know you're not getting any better. The only chance to regain health is radical surgery and a painful rehab process that could take years so like most addicts you opt to stay on the juice but retain all the good intentions to do something soon. 

    Trouble is soon never comes and over time the addiction remains while the body continues to disintegrate. Death become inevitable but it's going to be a long drawn out painful one at this rate. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Even the bogus GDP stats foretell the decline of Rome

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    What's the change of grade ratio? It drops 1m over how many?

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    In other words you have no idea what underpins Florida's economy and you rely on MSM publications and political media releases for the feel good story.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    How many times do I have to ask?

    "Give me some hard data that supports your contention that Florida is worth a long term investment in property."

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Good luck with it. Be brutal with these agents. 90% aren't worth didley.

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