You're in good company. I don't know anyone who is including the likes of so called Nobel prize winning economists.

It helps. Until the GFC I only had a passing interest in macro economics. Most economic concepts are simple common sense. Academics like to complicate the hell out of it to justify their models.

Experience is when you learn to differentiate when to move to the side lines and when to join the fools.

No you're not… you're never completely prepared.

I haven't put a time frame on it. You can't underestimate the lengths govt's and banks will go to to keep this thing afloat. The longer this goes on for the worse are the repercussions and longer the recovery. Nothing has improved at all since 08. Debt is magnitudes larger and the so called regulation and legislation has actually moved more towards a cowboy system.

The longer this takes the more I'm inclined to think this will end extremely badly. The arab spring was the catalyst that set off push-back by the average guy in the street. That push-back continues today in a growing number of countries.

China is only one of many vectors for a crash. Ukraine is on the verge of default. Right now the Europeans are trying to figure out if that would send some banks over the edge. Meanwhile there's a debate brewing over saving an Austrian bank that was (in 1931) responsible for triggering the 30's depression. Everyone is paranoid that all it takes is one spark and the contagion effect gets out of control.

Me I'm sitting on the sidelines with my popcorn watching all the players do their thing and wondering how this is going to play out.

Again you show your lack of knowledge, comprehension or understanding. Investing is widely considered to be predicated on the the 'greater fool' theory. It requires someone more foolish than you to purchase your asset for more than you did. Property is an exceptionally good example of that theory although the share market is an equally good example.

Every asset that exists has to be held by someone or some entity. When the value of an asset falls you are either a fool for holding it or a fool for not finding a greater fool to buy it and absorb the losses for you. 90% of people have a zero to barely working understanding of investing and certainly the wider complexities of that art. 

I can't exclude myself from this group totally as I have been guilty of being the fool in earlier days and am not yet rid of the odd foolish impulse. 

Everyone is somewhat of an exaggeration. I prefer to describe it as debunking group think and other mindless musings.

People usually try and justify their opinion right or wrong. First time I've ever seen someone justify waffling.

I'm often amused by people who offer an opinion and when asked why they say 'because'. 

I watched a doco some years ago that explored why some people survive disasters and others don't. Apparently the studies consistently show that survivors understood unfolding events and interpreted the potential threat long before others and took the requisite action to protect themselves or move out of harms way. 

In terms of financial disasters some dumb as chips muppet has to be holding the bag when things go south.

I'm as certain as one can be that things aren't going to work out for many and if things do go as I expect then its people like yourself that will say…'never saw that coming'. The worst that can happen to me is I'll just be wrong. The worst that could happen to you is you loose your shirt. I only have to be right once. You have to be right every day.

I'm sure everything's alright in China and the data is just a head fake..

Lehman's triggered the last GFC because they weren't bailed out. China has a 1000 Lehman's coming due over the next 12 months but I'm sure everything will sort itself out.

..all looks perfectly normal to me…

…looks perfectly sustainable to me…

…nothing could possibly go wrong here..

…Banks!!!!…… rock solid of course!

Yes the powers that be have everything under control. Absolutely nothing to worry about here. We're different downunder.

The Chinese on the other hand have a few problems….

China Folds On Reforms – Bails Out 2nd Shadow-Banking Default After "Last Drop Of Blood" Threats

…. but I'm sure it's nothing… 

What have we got to worry about. Aussie banks are rock solid… right?

Western Banks And China: "Interesting Times" Are Coming

• In other words, we now have additional evidence of the growing vulnerability of Australia specifically. As we already pointed out in our musings about how “financial contagion” might spread from China in spite of its closed capital account, Australia is a pivotal region. Australia's economy greatly depends on China's commodity imports, and its banks have financed an enormous real estate bubble on the back of the commodities boom.
• Moreover, Australia's banking system itself is highly dependent on foreign short term funding sources. Although the chart above doesn't tell us anything about the maturities of the claims on China, we would not be surprised if many or even most of the loans to China had much longer maturities than the foreign funding Australian banks get from (mainly) Europe. The main point is though that we have yet another source of potential trouble for Australia here – the exposure of Australian banks to China amounts to 9% of Australia's GDP at this point.

But never mind… I'm sure these guys have got it all wrong and things will be honky dory for a while yet.. after all can't China just keep building stuff until the cows come home???? Of course they can…

"Off The Charts" How China Fooled The World

• Here's the problem: one can't put the January lending surge aside, as it came at a time when for the second time in six months the PBOC tried to taper, only to be forced to not only bail out its money markets, but is on the verge of a bankruptcy tsunami involving its shadow banking products, the first of which it also bailed out despite repeated warnings this time it means business and would let it die.
• In this context, the January number is precisely what it appears: the bank's logical response to a liquidity crunch as the Chinese regime finds itself in the same spot that the Fed has been in for the past 5 years – it must keep the monetary spice flowing, or else the party is over. And just like the Fed, and now the BOJ, so too does China not want to deal with the fall out if all it takes to created yet another quarter of increasingly subpar economic growth is another record of funny money conceived out of thin air.
• The only problem is that it is becoming increasingly difficult to hide all the pieces of funny money, most of which result in bad and otherwise impaired loans, under the rug. And just to show the problem in its context, here is how China's banks created some 50% more in bank loans in January than the QE credit money created by both the Fed and the BOJ combined.

But even if China has a few little problems we can always bank on the US to hold things together…..after all over the last 5 years they've thrown a combined $30 trillion at the problem so it must be fixed and we're all gonna be alright.

5 Years Later – What Did The ARRA Achieve?

I'm so relieved that so many of you believe everything's going to be alright and the rumors of an impending crash are nothing but rumors spread by scaremongers with nothing better to do.

I wouldn't engage any solicitor that tried to give me business advice or told me what I could or couldn't do. They're there to advise on the legal aspects of a transaction not its business potential.