Sure there's 2 sides. You take a position but fail to support it with anything other than MSM comment and advertorials of questionable merit. I could play either side of this coin but in these threads I'm the Devils advocate.

Being semi retired affords some of us that luxury. When I do work it's because I want to or like to. I'm in a transitionary stage at the moment as I wait for some scheduled surgery (on the 18 Apr). That'll see me much more physically able again. I (we) will be heading back to NZ around mid Jun and for some time we will be motor homing around NZ until something else takes my fancy.

LOL.. I thought that's what you had been doing anyway. 

You've never challenged me on anything. Well nothing I'd call a challenge. When I was 20 I had a fairly serious back injury. An orthopedic surgeon I was under wanted to do some fairly radical surgery with a 50/50 outcome. I took some advice from a non surgeon, slowly recovered over the space of 2 years and haven't looked back. That taught me that the so called experts, especially those with a professional or pecuniary interest will almost always give advice more suited to their egos and pocket than my best interests. I made it a point from that time on that if I was to listen to anyone proffering advice purportedly in my or someone elses best interest then I'd better make sure I understood the issues and that testing their competency should be part of the DD process.

Not a problem. Glad to help as always

Sounds fascinating. You must be very excited. 

Building has gone back to contraction according to GS. More commercial activity on the back foot.

• Despite the market knowing better, the so-called housing recovery has hit a speed-bump (or brick-wall). Goldman's housing swirlogram shows that the revisions from an exuberant few months into January 2013 have dragged the reality of the 'recovery' rotating into full-blown 'expansion' to a crumble back into 'contraction'. Of course, we have seen homebuilder stocks exuberant like this before in the face of disappointing facts, but even the NAHB (desperate to portray confidence) is 'admitting' things are not as rosy as all-time highs in stocks might suggest.

From hopeful January to 'revised' contractionary March…

More self interested industry gobbledy gook backstopped by fudged government figures and bought economists. 

Lets try some actual data.  Note that if we use the old CPI deflator for GDP then growth is actually negative. But govt's change this to suit their economic message. See next graph for CPI

Just about everyone who's awake knows the US govt CPI figures are rubbish. 

I can't be bothered critiquing the rest. It's rubbish. More holes than my old socks.

It's bad enough that the govt manipulates the figures. It's understandable that back pocket MSM outlets propagandise this information to comfort the sheeple. But when individuals who claim to be intelligent, knowledgeable and ethical republish it as if it really really true …. …well that just leaves me scratching my head.

Yes the government really does tell the truth

The 400 or so dead malls are listed here with some history

http://deadmalls.com/index.html

The Death of the American Mall and the Rebirth of Public Space

By Robbie Moore

TUESDAY FEBRUARY 26, 2013

• A recent article in the Financial Times suggests that 15% of America’s regional malls will fail in the next five years. “The mall’s 50-year reign as the ultimate shopping destination appears to be coming to an end,” claims a report by the CoStar Group, a real estate analysis firm.

  Many are failing despite significant state subsidies. A local government report found that in the St Louis metro area alone, $4.6 billion has been spent in the last 20 years subsidizing chain stores and malls,

• In 2007, a year before the crash, no new malls were built in America, for the first time in 50 years. A mall in Salt Lake City which opened in March 2012 was the first to be built since then. New Jersey’s ambitious $4 billion Xanadu mall and indoor ski slope – now re-financed and re-named the American Dream Meadowlands – still languishes, half-built. According to the New York Times, the American Dream, which was conceived before the crash, has struggled despite receiving upwards of $1 billion in the form of tax write-offs, free land and a highway connection from the state of New Jersey.

Demand for space in U.S. strip malls still weak in first quarter

By Ilaina Jonas | Reuters – Thu, Apr 4, 2013

• The total square feet of U.S. neighborhood strip centers – shopping centers typically anchored by grocery stores or drug stores – rose by only 0.04 percent, or 873,000 square feet, in the first quarter, according to preliminary figures.

  It was the fourth-lowest amount of space added since Reis began tracking the sector in 1999. The rise was smaller than the 1.231 million square feet added in the fourth quarter and was less than half the amount added a year ago.

  The small amount of space added helped offset an anemic demand for space. Retailers soaked up only a net 2.726 million square feet of space, about the same as the prior quarter but down from a year earlier.

From Calculated Risk Blog

[Strip Malls] Yet again, vacancy declined by only 10 bps during the first quarter. Although it is welcome that vacancy continues to decline on an almost quarterly basis, there is still no acceleration in vacancy compression. On a year‐over‐year basis, the vacancy rate declined by only 30 bps. Net absorption continues to outpace new construction, marginally pushing vacancy rates downward. With only 873,000 square feet delivered, even moderate demand for space would result in meaningful declines in the national vacancy rate. Yet despite the dearth of new completions, demand remains insufficient to make a meaningful dent in what is still an elevated vacancy rate..

Finance has always been available it just hasn't been as accessible due to higher qualifying criteria. The US govt has pushed the bar back down to subprime levels again so when the next GFC arrives we'll all get another go on the US boom bust merry-go-round.

We are talking in generalisations because you haven't provided specifics.

7 – 8% gross yield is around break even and anything less you are on a hiding to nothing. If you can't find them you are either looking in the wrong places or your methodology needs tweaking or both. Over time you can develop a nose for good performers. It can take a little while to get the hang of this skill. It's one of the most asked questions, "Where do I find CF+ properties that offer CG growth?"

A reno recovers your entry exit costs for the most part upfront. You get to start off at a neutral point rather than a negative one and hope to recoup costs over time. It is helpful but not essential to a viable investment. Don't let that factor inhibit your geographical range.

If you can't find properties with 8%+ yield locally then that suggests problems with the area.

High CG increases over short periods are a red flag. It usually signifies a market driven by sentiment not fundamentals. Fundamentals are long term characteristics that underpin long term investments. Sentiment comes and goes like the weather. Beware of areas that have seen rapid revaluations. They almost always correct to the downside or trend line after a peak. The challenge is to find areas that are entering the growth phase. Urban renewal is generally a good sign this is occurring.

Beware of Port Kembla. It helps anchor economic activity but does little to drive it higher. It's always been in a constant state of change but growth has been minimal on average. It's a cargo port  in the main and given increases in automation does little to foster employment in the area. If anything higher heavy traffic flows will have a negative impact on some areas.

The wider economic picture for the Illawara is slightly negative given the 3 primary employment hubs, Port, Uni and Health are likely to see either budget constraints or volume falls as the global economic challenges put pressure on exporters and government funded service providers.

Anyone with a few dollars can be an investor but very few turn out to be very successful investors over the long haul. Only a tiny percentage of investors own more than 5 properties. These are challenging times even for the experienced guys who've built fairly substantial wealth over the last 2 decades. Most will have put significant effort into fortifying their balance sheets in the last 2 years. As a newby investing in these times is difficult because your learning the old paradigm of investing when times where idiot proof. You will have to raise your benchmarks to account for risk and take DD to a new level if you're to have any chance of getting up more than just a few rungs on the wealth ladder.

Used to have an aircraft. Bit a low flying around Manilya a few years back

Didn't you say, "I am excited, but am starting to second guess myself in terms of getting my situation right from the outset and also wondering if i know enough. A bad case of Analysis Paralysis it seems."

And here's me thinking you might need a little further knowledge to help you clarify your thoughts.

Nothing wrong with buying in areas you know best and feel comfortable with. Note that while nominal rent may go up rental yield may stay the same. Yield is the return on the assets value. If its value falls and rents remain the same yield increases and vice versa.

If vacancy rates are 1% and yields 6% something is wrong. You need to be looking for yields of least 8%+

Wollongong for example and that's fairly representative of the region has seen no median house or unit capital growth for 10 years. That speaks volumes for any potential CG in a general sense. There is no substantive economic growth driver for the region. Don't confuse activity for growth. 

Sound reasoning but only part of the puzzle. If your using an IO strategy then you have to be able to push the assets value over time to improve LvR. That means an average CG of around 3%/pa. You can give this an initial shunt with a reno but be careful not to trade the reno revaluation for poor future CG because it makes the figures work today. If you can't get an average gain of 3% over the long term then the deals dead in the water unless somehow you're going to make rental growth work for you as compensation. You also need to recoup entry and exit costs in those CG figures as well

When you find areas with low to no CG over an extended period of time you have to question why you would want to invest there. This is where being a local can mean your decisions are being influenced by convenience and emotive reasoning.

Good luck with it anyway. I don't envy you.