Seems I'm not alone in my opinion of Abenomics.

Abe's "Deflation-Monster"-Slaying Third-Arrow Hints Underwhelm (lotsa pretty graphs for the non Zivites)

UPDATE 1: Well that escalated quickly… Abe Speech ended-  NKY -450 from Abe spike highs, TOPIX -3% from Abe spike highs, JPY cracked back under 100 (80 pips from Abe spike), JGBs surging

For about 2 minutes there it looked as if we were back on track and by the power of jawbone alone, Abe could lift Japan from its malaise.

*ABE VOWS TO SLAY DEFLATION MONSTER WITH FISCAL, MONETARY POLICY

*ABE CALLS GROWTH STRATEGY CENTERPIECE OF ECONOMIC POLICY

*ABE WILL THOROUGHLY REMOVE ALL BARRIERS TO CORPORATE ACTIVITY

But a mere 10 minutes after vowing to slay the deflation monster, Japanese stocks have retraced their spike gains and JPY has retraced its spike lower – but on the bright side – JGBs are bid.

When I look back at the historical record and it shows…

didn't work..

didn't work again..

bugger still didn't work that time..

well I kinda come to the conclusion that's it's a 99.9% certainty it ain't gonna work this time.

You on the other hand believe you haven't got a clue (I agree) and that after repeated failures it's not certain this time will be a failure also. If you don't have a clue it's a stretch to deduce the evidence is uncertain especially when precedent and examples exist.

Your logic constantly fails you as in this case. You admit to not understanding (don't have a clue). If you don't understand then you lack the ability to judge if someone else does or not. That's like telling a mathematician his formula is wrong when you don't understand the formula.

Fall In Japan Auto Sales Dashes Earlier Hopes Of Sales Turnaround

A fall in Japan's auto sales in May dashed hopes that an increase in sales the previous month finally marked the start of a new upward trend amid growing hopes that the government's economic policies will breathe new life into slack auto demand.

Last year, huge government subsidies had inflated sales, and now there is a price to pay, as there always is for subsidies.

This can't be right. My mate Ziv says it's all a box of fluffy ducks and Abe san will be a legend soon.

I wish you'd take your time and dig up some decent stuff.

First quote – wages and employment.

Abe's begging business to give the worker a pay rise because he needs to compensate them for the cost of living increases they're getting wacked with but the SME's who employ 80% of the workforce don't have the margins to accommodate him. On the one hand he wants more productivity (more output for less) but wants business to up its labor costs in the face of tougher markets and already compressed margins. He can't have higher productivity and higher wages. One or the other. 

The quote makes assumptions about wage growth but that's unlikely. What business would commit to a wage rise when they are only into their 6 month of this experiment and there is no real benefit apparent other than where hot money is pushing the market at certain points. Given volatility you'd be crazy to front run speculative top line growth. Insane stuff.

Whats with the BS employment figures. Labor force participation has been dropping for years (mid 90's) because Japans population is contracting and to magnify that so is the workforce as the population ages. Last 5 employment figures; 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.1%, 4.1%

JAPANESE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNCHANGED IN APRIL

Anna Fedec [email protected]  |  5/31/2013 12:50:15 AM

Japan's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1 percent in April. The number of unemployed persons was 2.91 million, a decrease of 240 thousand or 7.6 % from the previous year.

The number of employed persons in April 2013 was 63.12 million, an increase of 370 thousand or 0.6 % from the previous year.

In April, compared to the previous month, the employment rose in Wholesale and retail trade, Transport and postal activities, Scientific Research and professional and technical services, Accommodations, eating and drinking services, Education and Medical, health care and welfare.

Job losses were reported in Manufacturing, Agriculture and Forestry, Information and communications, Real estate,  Living-related and personal services and in Government services.

Interesting to note where jobs are being lost and where they are increasing. There is a trend to service worker type jobs (tend to be low tech low paid) but losses in manufacturing are a concern given their reliance on manufacturing exports as the hub of their export revenue.

Second quote – the Japanese economic outlook remains better than expected

Who rights this stuff? Krugman? You have several countries preparing to go full on currency econ warfare about now. 

Third quote – A gauge of condominium sales in the Tokyo metropolitan area jumped 48 percent in March from a year before.

48%!!! Says it all really. Fuel injected turbo charged with nitrous market. It's sure to end well. What was the other one…. dept store spending is up. 

Consumer spending has been rising steadily for the last few years but I suppose Abe's broken arrow policies will get credit for that.

Consumer confidence… yep some early euphoria but the recent market antics have dented people's enthusiasm of late

Quote:

It's all about showing the world how much smarter you are than all of us, innit?

It's only you and me mate. I'm sure there's a few out there that could teach me a thing or two (I hope so anyway). I was hoping you'd stretch my intellectual rubber band a bit but its still as limp as an empty jock strap.

Not again…

I'm looking for someone who knows what next weeks winning lotto numbers are. 

And S Korea has had enough..

South Korea Demands "International Action" Against "Negative Impact" Of Abenomics

Implicitly, the G-8/20 also thinks everyone else in the world is an idiot. But all this will be irrelevant if one more major export powerhouse joins alongside South Korea in formally lodging complaints. Someone like Germany. Because if Merkel also says that the 200 or so boost to the S&P is more than enough to offset marginal losses in German exports, then Abenomics may very well be on its way out.

The next round is about to begin

Fascinated to know how you arived at that conclusion when the MOF's figures show quite categorically that import costs are rising faster than export revenues. 

Never said that. The renewables sector is a heavily subsidised industry that can't stand unsupported in actual market conditions. At this point in time it is a drag on growth. On the IP and development side the kind of revenue generated is fairly small in the scheme of things. On the manufacturing side cost pressures have and are pushing manufacturers to the wall. Even the cheap Chinese manufacturers are going bust.

The latest head wind for renewables is a loss in confidence due to poor manufacturing techniques which are showing a 10 – 15% component failure rate on a product that is guaranteed for 20 – 25 yrs. US companies are now putting aside huge reserves ($250 million in one case) against future claims. That now suggests uptake could be dampened if the industry doesn't do something to lift quality. It takes around 7 yrs in most cases to recoup your home install investment with subsidies. If a system needs replacing because of quality issues then ROI goes out the window along with subsidies and we're likely to see a pullback or stalling of renewable uptake.

At the moment subsidies are manageable because renewables are a small percentage of the market and the additional cost and tarrif rates can be smoothed to accomodate the additional cost. As that ratio increases then somewhere along the cost curve the consumer is going to have to shoulder the full cost. As the market approaches that point resistance is likely to increase. I think that will prove difficult to overcome.

Another problem renewables face is that energy demand is increasing considerably but the bulk of that demand is industrial which renewables are in the main unable to supply. 

Another point of resistance is large traditional energy suppliers who see renewables as a competitor. 

Renewables won't fail over the long term but they are not the economic panacea you make them out to be. Renewable technologies are being pursued globally and Japan is just one player among many who has to fight for market share. 

That's one aspect of it. But how many immigrants does it take to make a difference? What jobs will they do? How would they contribute to improving Japan's economic outlook? How does Japan compete for quality immigrants when the whole world is doing the same thing. Japan needs to change its regulations to give immigrants equal rights with Japanese. It would need to initiate an education and media program to change attitudes both internally and externally.

Simply stating immigration could unlock economic opportunity without considering the complexity and difficulty in its implementation let alone the time frames it would take to see any economic benefit is fanciful at best. Japan has never been adept at welcoming foreigners. Quite the contrary. There's nothing I see that suggests they have the skill, desire or level of support that would indicate this could be achieved. Until they do something tangible it's just political hot air.

Again putting words in my mouth. Abe has no credibility. He's a once failed PM. So now that he's reborn with an old strategy that failed last time but repackaged as new with a slick marketing name like 3 arrows he's suddenly the messiah. If Abe was a failed property developer you'd be considered an idiot to sign up to his offerings second time round.

once fooled shame on you…twice fooled shame on me

Obama – i had high hopes for the guy. What a let down. He'll be remembered for drone strikes and that abomination called Abamacare.

Krugman – a guy who is widely considered to be very good in his specialist field of economics but an absolute muppet in theoretical macro economics. In the last few years he's been taken to the cleaners by some of his noted peers. He's become a bought and paid for mouthpiece of the NYT. That's a peer assessment not mine. In the front lines of economic activity he's not taken seriously by the big successful fund mangers who are widely regarded as astute intelligent players based on their performance not what they say.

Sooking again…