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  • Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Qlds007 wrote:
    Agree with Terry.

    What i often get is at the end of the coffee meet is "could you email me a list of lenders who will do that or some more detailed information on buying in my SMSF so i can pass it onto my regular Broker / Financial Planner as they didnt believe it can be done". 

    Cheers

    Yours in Finance

    With those I say yeah sure.. and who/where do I send the invoice to. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Brazil's the kind of market that can go bust in a heart beat. The property markets have been running red hot since 08 and credit went crazy over that time fueling the property market. The Olympics is also adding fuel to the fire at the moment. I remember the same kind of thing in Sydney around 2000.

    They have big problems economically that are only being exacerbated by the global slowdown. The risk with Rio is that a post Olympic boom tends to see property markets either drift or retrace for few years and that's in relatively good economic times. The Rio market looks like it has a better than 70% chance of a correction over the next 5 years. The question will be how much higher will it go before it corrects and what would a correction look like.

    The risk is that the market could rise another 20% but retrace 30%+ after the Olympics. Any post Olympics could be magnified by both national and global economic woes.

    Personally I think you're going into a high risk market at almost the top of it's cycle. You're not likely to get much help with the currency either. Inflation is a real problem and that's pushing interest rates up putting pressure on borrowers. The economy has basically stalled and wages have stagnated. There seems little to support an over heated market other than hope and hype. To me it's a speculators market that could pop at any time.

    It's the following the same pattern of most failed property markets globally. It might last another 2 -4 years. Who knows.

    If you're going to have a go good luck. You'll need it.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Quote:
    .I truly envy the amount of free time you seem to have on your hands.

    Probably only worked 6 months in the last 2 years and only 1 month in the last year… can get a bit boring at times.

    I laughed when I read Stiglitz's essay. I suppose you can make any economy look good if you ignore the mountain of debt hiding in the back room. US$12T or Y1Quadrillion. Making comparisons to the US is like apples and oranges.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Get your PM to send pics. We might be able to help you better if we can see what's going on. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    If you where just going to remove tiles to repair a truss or rafters I'm mystified why you'd need tilers for. It's hardly rocket science. If they had to recap a ridge then 1 tiler for half a day at most. 

    3 days to do a repair. A roofing gang could roof a whole house in that time. 

    If you have clay tiles then you're unlikely to need to reroof. Concrete tiles over 50 years almost certainly. Personally I'd redo it in colorbond rather than tiles if I had to. 

    If you're going to consider a reroof get several quotes with differing materials. Most of the big roofing companies have their own contract installers. Prices are likely to be very competitive at the moment given the massive slow down in building and construction. If it's an older place a roof reno should up your val as well.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Detroit might end up being an interesting case study. If they're able to default on their debt and get somewhere closer to a manageable debt load it could present an opportunity in the future. They still need a lot of restructuring especially unions and and burden of pension schemes etc. If they can get back to a clean sheet with a half descent financial plan they might surprise. I won't hold my breath. They could also implode into just another dead and dying US city. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Lived in Umina for a year back in 2000. It has it's ups and downs. Talk of a fast ferry got everyone excited there for a while but that died a slow death. Sydney's always going to grow so you have to look at where the population push is happening. Around 2000 it was the Central Coast with the F3 upgrade. Then the Blue mountains got popular with the M4 upgrades. After that Kellyville and Windsor became flavor of the moment with FHB's. Not sure what's happening with the Chatswood to Para rail link 'these days but it's that kind of infrastructure build based around easing the commute that generally concentrates interest in nearby suburbs.

    Look for the population  pressure points and you're likely to identify ares with potential.

    Always liked it around Wahroonga with the big leafy blocks and nice old style houses. It never did all that well though compared to other areas of Sydney

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Terryw wrote:
    I have seen that trend in my work. All the time people ring me up and want to buy me a $3.50 cup of tea so they can extract $500 worth of free advice from me!!

    ROFL.. come on me ol' son. You know you're giving away $500 of advice for didly so you can maybe sell ém that $3k service. ;-)

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    I see HSBC just dropped their 2yr to 4.59, 3yr at 4.79 and 5yr at 5.09. interesting. Just when you thought they couldn't go lower.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    My guess is that regional areas will take a hit as the economy slows. If we see a lower dollar and inflation over the next few years people will look to live closer to their work and area of activity. That will reduce demand for many areas and may see some move away to capture savings in living closer to their areas of most activity. I saw this Sydney when there was a big move west and then several years later they were moving back because it was cheaper to pay higher rents/prices and live closer in than the commute and time costs.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Doubled a few weeks back. $4k to $8k. Steve's short a few bob and needs to make up for loss making properties. ;-)

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Beware of GDP figures. I don't put much store in them. It's like looking at your top line and ignoring your bottom line. The problem with GDP everywhere is they're all manipulating the bloody thing for political reasons. Joe public assumes GDP growth is a real figure and actually means something. Same BS here in Oz.

    The nuclear thing is a dodgy one. I can't see they've got much choice at the moment. The cost of imported energy is killing them. Heaven help you if another one falls over though. That's all you'll need.

    The women thing is a political stunt. They already have women in the work force. Nothing new there. Problem is they have to overcome the paternalistic culture in business and push more women to the top not just the token ones. The immigration/women thing is a red herring anyway. It'll be decades before they could hope to capatilise on any of those initiatives if at all. The problem is now and the next 5 years. It simply diverts attention and energy from the real problems that need addressing.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Japanese banks aren't the only ones pushing for access to investor and by default depositor funds. Pre GFC it wasn't a concern for the depositor but post GFC and now Cyprus it is. We've moved from govt guarantees to stabilise and support the banking system (prevent runs) to an all in free for all. That's a trend now everywhere (recently in NZ) and it's now a given that anything in a bank deposit account is fair game. This marks a new stage in the over all demise of our current financial system. Sovereigns now recognise they do not have the means to stave off a banking collapse on their own so are giving tacit support to banks to go after anyones coin to prevent collapse. 

    Allowing Japanese banks this latitude signals a lack in confidence at how thing might turn out. It also suggest that despite all the reassurances, the banking system is under far more stress and far more vulnerable than anyone's letting on.  Plan accordingly.

    The Japanese economic growth story is a myth. They've just pumped a gazillion yen into the system and seen a flood of hot money race in to front run the ride to the moon stock market. The time frame to measure growth attributable to anything Abe may have done is way to short to have any credibility. It's part of the govt's media campaign to maintain confidence. It's as much political as it is economic. If you want to believe the superficial feel good stories that's up you. 

    Current Account stories are feel good for the man in the street who doesn't understand them. 

    Here's Australia's. It's been negative for the last 30 years… negative all that time. Who's traveling better and has less debt.

    Terms of Trade is a better indicator because it focuses solely on the cost of exports verses imports.  Japan's for the last 25 years tells a story all its own

    Abe's problem is that nothing he is doing shows any sign of turning this thing around. Quite the contrary. You will get hot spots in the economy and everyone will clap and applaud at what a clever boy he is while the rest of us with a clue know full well this thing is (statistically at this stage) one sick puppy that will in all likelihood die a painful (for many) death.

    If the rest of the worlds economy wasn't a sick joke he might have a chance at shifting the direction of the Japanese economy temporarily but until they tackle the fundamental problem of too much debt and extreme budget deficits things just ain't gonna go well over the long term.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    And here it comes..

    Japan to adopt 'bail-ins,' force bank losses on investors if needed, Nikkei says

    • Japan's Financial Services Agency will enact new rules that will forced failed bank losses on investors, if needed, via a mechanism known as a "bail-in," according to The Nikkei. Mitsubishi UFJ (MTU), Mizuho Financial (MFG) and Sumitomo Mitsui (SMFG) are among those proposing amendments to allow them to issue the types of preferred shares or subordinated bonds that would be used in such cases, the report noted.

    Looks like the banks are setting up their backstops for when things turn to custard.. that's ominous.

    and Abenomics appears to be in trouble

    The Abenomics effect deflates.

    Abe seems big on rhetoric but small on detail. He's fallen at the first real challenge. Failure to turn this around will doom his term in office if he survives at all. a Long way to go yet but it's not looking too good for old Abe san.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Spikes in the odd burb tends to fool many investors in to thinking they can capture these rises if only they could predict where they'll come up next. One off lifts in a burb are almost impossible to predict with any certainty and the rise doesn't usually carry much momentum over time if it's not on a fairly broad basis. I've seen hot burbs do well for a few years then stagnate for the next ten. 

    In this type of market simply because prices are low or slow doesn't necessarily mean money isn't looking for a home. Burbs can go hot if that money suddenly finds a focus for whatever reason. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Chemical smell from anything would trigger an emergency I would think. Pretty strict rules on the commercial use of chemicals in built up areas. More like fetilisers. Some are pretty pungent. With the tip just ask around the neighborhood. You'll soon find out how that affects the area.

    I'm always surprised at how many buyers never bother to talk to the local shop keeper, neighbors etc to find out what an area's like.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Qlds007 wrote:
    Even if you approach the Vendor after the expiry of the agency period the agent will still have the right to claim a commission as you were a willing and able buyer and approached the agent for information during the agency period.

    My take on it too however where a sole listing arrangement doesn't exist the listing agency may only have a right to the listing fee and not the agents fee component. If I remember correctly there 3 components to a commission fee;  agency fee, listing fee and agent's fee. You may only be negating the agents component. I'm sure someone could clarify.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    I started in the freezing works back in NZ straight out of school (1976). It was big money then. I did 4 years on lambs and then got out. Went back in 1986. The rot had set in by then. I spent another 13 years this time in pig slaughter and beef operations. The last 5 years I saw the writing on the wall and made preparations to exit at my first opportunity. Lamb processing dropped from 90 million head per year to 30. The pig processing plant went broke and closed about 2 years after I left.

    We are victims of creative destruction, deflation in manufactured goods (a race to the bottom) and globalisation. In 1980 I bought a F&P top loader washing machine for $950. I was earning $12k per year which was good money in those days. Today a comparable wage would be $80 – 100k. I can buy the same washing machine for $470. 

    And that's the problem you face. We all want cheap goods but expect to retain and improve our living standards at the same time. You can have one or the other but not both. 

    And you definitely need to worry about robots. Foxcon employs around a million people assembling electronic components. It's going robot because of labor costs and bad publicity. The people displaced for that job will then add to the competition for the remaining jobs. You can now buy simple stand alone robots for around $23k that can be programmed by anyone to take over simple menial repetitive jobs. Their economic lifespan works out to around $3/hr. Those types of robots will progressively expand into more complex jobs and actually get cheaper with longer economic life spans. 

    If you want to guide your kids into careers you need to be looking at activities that bots can't compete in. It's getting harder to find them. Bots won't do everything but they will displace enough workers to the point unemployment will be hard to manage. 

    Can you remember when every interaction was with a human? Have a think about how many times you now interact with a machine to complete a task. Where just at the beginning of that curve.

    Bots don't retire, get sick (or throw sickies) want time off, take holidays, complain or strike.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    The old girl would have a pink fit if I bought one of those.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    Agree with everything you say for the most part. You're probably looking at a blend of old and new. Old for proven reliable systems and new for that sexy bit plus it adds the IP dimension to the revenue stream. I think in todays world you need to be around 80% traditional 20% new. 

    Be aware that 5% ROI's may attract some Super Funds (if the investment is big enough) but keeping investors at that level might prove difficult over the long term. You can do that with an existing business with a track record but it's virtually impossible to attract investors with those returns for a start up. 

    Quote:
    What does the business modeling need to look like to attract investors from Asia? How do I make contact with those investors?

    Not just Asia but the Middle East as well. This is where a consultancy can make it easier to open doors.

    I was watching Landline last night and one segment was on water in Tasmania. A merchant banker was buying up water rights to the new water scheme because farmers didn't see the value yet. Dairy is expanding down there apparently and he was saying there is literally billions of dollars looking for innovative investment opportunities.

    You can watch the segment here Starts at about 13.00

    http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2013/s3777902.htm

    I would talk to the big money guys especially those in Ag. Many have access to clients and funds looking for opportunities. Start at Rural Bank and look for leads there. They'll point you in the right direction as to who and how you might go about it. Meetings with these guys I have found to be educational and informative. Most are quite willing to help.

    http://www.private-equity-australia.com/

    http://www.australianinvestmentnetwork.com/home

    http://www.aaai.net.au/

    http://businessangels.com.au/

    http://www.findangelinvestors.com.au/

Viewing 20 posts - 501 through 520 (of 1,635 total)