Forum Replies Created
Wages;
Monthly wages are down… 14 straight months. Beware of nominal Vs real wage growth. Bonus payments are up but regular monthly payments are down. Negative wage growth is not reversing. Total wages paid out are also trending down due to a shrinking work force.
GDP:
GDP is up more than expected. Go look at any country who plans to raise consumption taxes and see what happens to GDP. You get a positive spike on pull frward spending by consumers to save on the new tax. You get a recession afterwards.
Olympics:
Too far away to have any immediate affect but expect to see property speculation ramp up going forward. Fukushima is the fly in the ointment. Things don't get sorted there the Olympics could be a disaster. Economically it may actually produce very little.
Dr. Allison Stewart, who has conducted exhaustive economic research on the Games since 1960 for Oxford University’s Saïd Business School, said there was no evidence to suggest any Olympics had ever resulted in a positive cost benefit.
Koll:
Koll conveniently ignores who will hold JGB's when inflation is 2% and bonds are paying sub 0.8%. He assumes the BOJ will be the buyer of last resort and will soak up surplus bonds. Good luck with that. He also fails to explain how lower bond prices impact on bank reserves.
Significant increases in productivity could fully mitigate inflationary pressures –
There is no "significant" potential remaining in the productivity stakes. Since the 90's Japan has rung more productivity out of the system than anyone else. There is a point where no more or little productivity remains to be realised.
Keep looking for someone credible enough to counter Bass's arguement.
BS MSM:
When I pull from the MSM I try to refer to actuall facts in an article as opposed to editorial or opinion pieces. It's relatively easy these days to discern industry or politically motivated opinion peices masquerading as ligitimate information.
Bass puts his money and reputation where his mouth is. Koll doesn't. I don't necessarily agree with everything Bass says. No one is right all the time about everything.
This debate is fairly simple. Can you expand debt faster than income indefinitely and still survive. We all know how Ponzi schemes work and consequently know the answer to that.
Ziv wrote:When Abe wants to create inflation and growth, corporations comply and raise employee wages IN ADVANCE of such occurrences,Huh???????? Who's kidding who here?
The problem with this so called wage growth is that total wages are falling with a shrinking work force…
Self explanatory….
Ziv wrote:Your point? Incidentally, when did you move from "Japan is doomed" to "Asia is doomed"? Or is this part of the general "the world is doomed" theme?Busted!!
Iceland
Greece
Spain
Portugal
Ireland
Argentina
Venezuela
Italy
France
descending into the economic meat grinder..
India
Indonesia
Philippines
Brazil
China
Japan
Russia
UK
US
Euroarea: 92.2%, up from 88.2% a year ago
Greece: 160.5%, up from 136.5% a year ago
Italy: 130.3%; up from 123.8% a year ago
Portugal: 127.2%, up from 112.3% a year ago
Ireland: 125.1%, up from 106.8% a year ago
Spain: 88.2%, up from 73.0% a year ago
Netherlands: 72.0%, up from 66.7% a year ago
Total debt % GDP
Yep it's all good. Nothing bads going to happen here. Carry on as usual. I must remember to tell my kids that debt is good.
Contradictions? I've always had a consistent view of India and never been that enthusiastic about the "emerging markets will provide a growth engine to support the global economy" meme. Especially the muppets who thought India was the next big thing after China. The hot FED money that provided access to cheap credit that fueled EM growth is now flowing the other way leaving EM economies with a Current Account problem. India's political machine coupled with it's insane bureaucracy were always going to be impediments to progress. Couple that with an insatiable demand for gold leaves India with some serious economic headaches to sort out.
However, India is but one economy amongst many in Asia facing these problems. A point you seem to have ignored in our recent debate. The Asian crises will still linger in the memories of many Japanese I suspect.
As far as the Japan 4th comment I was surprised to run across that little snippet. Does this mean Japan is falling behind or others surging ahead. For a country that was not so long ago number 2 forth represents a mighty fall.
As sure as God made little green apples Japan is slipping. Using PPP and comparing Japan from the 1990's it's fairly obvious Japan is loosing the battle to get it's economy under control and moving in line with other comparable countries.
There's a push by investigative journalists to expose tax havens that shield the rich and wealthy.
Trillions hidden in tax havens by super-rich, corporations
That's pushing the wealthy to move their wealth and hide it somewhere else.
Billionaires Flee Havens as Trillions Pursued Offshore
The long and short of it is that while places like the Bahamas may seem like nice places to settle down and raise a family that might all change in the blink of an eye if some insolvent government looking for their next penny decides we want your money.
Global Property Guide – Cyprus
The problem with places like the Bahamas is they took a pounding during the last GFC. That suggests another financial event will invariably hurt the property market again. I suppose do you feel lucky
The shadow of the global recession hasn’t left the Bahamas. Though there are no official house price figures, house prices dropped by an estimated 30% to 40% from 2007 to 2010, and haven’t recovered yet, according to Treasure Cay Real Estate agent Everett Pinder.
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Caribbean/Bahamas/Price-History
32-Year-Old Homeless Man Found Dead Outside Japanese Arcade
Japan does have a large homeless population—something that visitors are surprised to discover. South Osaka and parts of Tokyo, for example, is populated with cardboard and blue-tarp covered shanty towns (see above). Generally speaking, the country's homeless, however, do not beg for spare change as it's not only considered degrading. Moreover, many Japanese people seem unwilling to spare a few yen
Yep Japan is really good at looking after one another…. not!
The YoY vs MoM is simply semantics in the scope of this discussion. There's quite clear evidence that Japans industrial base is under substantial stress.
Bass and hedge funds. I think something like only 5% of HF's have beaten the market to date this year. Something like 80% have not beaten inflation or lost. Bass like other HF's have their irons in many fires and use complex hedging mechanisms that don't always tell the whole story. You'll have to point to a reference re Bass's fund down 29%. He runs 11 at last count. He's said for some time they're reducing risk and positioning for a downturn so I'm not sure where this 29% report comes from or what it refers to.
The Japanese culturally stoic characteristic is, during good times, an advantage but in tough times it's their Achilles heel. It served them badly at the end of WW2. They took far more damage than was necessary and they'll grin and bear it again this time around as things literally fall to pieces around them. The idea that business is lifting wages on a broad front is a myth. Token at best.
We've covered this aspect of Japanese culture before. Their propensity to cover over the cracks in society and carry on as if things are all well is a character flaw that will only see unnecessary misery for those in need of help. A growing mental health problem and one of the highest suicide rates in the world does not suggest a society any better able to deal with its problems than anyone else. The Japanese are simply better at pretending all is well and putting a smiley face on things.
Interesting to note Asian emerging economies are crashing at the moment. India and Indonesia are in big trouble. The last time we saw a crises in Asia Japan struggled to cope.
I expect to see economic conditions worsen in Japan in the last quarter but I'm sure the MSM will somehow put a positive spin on things. MOAR QE on the way by the bucket load.
Yep this all going to end well.
