If you want to peruse some real data (from the horses mouth)

You might take a look at these

http://tochi.mlit.go.jp/english/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/sokuhou_201305_en1.pdf.

No doubt property has risen in some areas as hot money looks for a home. Problem is those increases will only stick for as long as the BOJ gooses the market AND retains control. Control being the key. As mentioned in previous posts the risk that the BOJ recognises is the fact a bond route means to suppress rates they will have to monetise JGB's to infinity. The risk is the currency crashes and ultimately faith in the currency evaporates and we see hyperinflation take hold.

I'm sure the experts at the BOJ have got everything under control.

….and/or presale conditions have met. IE fix the hinge on the garage door, clean the pool etc etc

While property speculation for the time being (I hesitate to call it investing) looks attractive (goosed by Wall Street hot money flows) to the not so knowledgeable (gullible and greedy), few understand (too blind to see) the potential for serious economic difficulties (financial Armageddon) in the near future (anytime after today).

Detroit and seven other cities that have declared bankruptcy since 2010, is it time to look at Florida? Florida at the state and local levels are burdened by what destroyed Detroit – the growing costs of retirement and medical costs for government retirees coupled with shrinking revenues

These warning are eerily similar to the predictions for Detroit. The time bomb is getting closer to exploding.

PEW Center on the States (pdf)

Florida and Texas both underfund their pensions and FL does not fund it's healthcare obligations at all while TX covers less than 50% of healthcare obligations. Detroit here we come.

In addition to the above Lance Roberts evaluation of where markets are at the moment and their risk of correction seems to be a growing theme amongst commentators.

Chart(s) Of The Day: Is A Major Correction Coming?

Written by Lance Roberts | Thursday, October 24, 2013

It's hard to argue with historical evidence. If (when) markets correct that will almost certainly induce moar QE which will invariably suppress the dollar, push gold ever higher and put upward pressure on IR's as yields spike on bonds and T's.

Can't see property performing well at all under these circumstances.

A speculative assessment of coarse, however, the odds that something will snap increase by the day.

Financial version of Russian Roulette ????

Your guys not mine.. I think Bass said exactly the same thing. It seems the BOJ and Bass are on the same page.

What Will It Take To Blow Up The Entire Japanese Banking System? (Not Much, According To The Bank of Japan)

Wednesday, October 23, 2013 at 7:54PM

A 1 percentage point rise would cost megabanks ¥2.9 trillion, regional banks ¥3.2 trillion, and shinkin banks ¥1.9 trillion. A total of ¥8 trillion ($82 billion). If the yield curve steepened, with long-term rates rising 1 percentage point and short-term rates remaining low, the losses would be smaller. In all, it would be survivable. The banking system is safe.

Whitewash doozie because it assumes a 1 percentage-point rise. The yield of the 10-year JGB would rise from todays 0.6% to 1.6%. With annual inflation hitting 2% soon, bondholders would still get sacked. Hence Mr. Hayakawa’s warning: if inflation hits 2%, long-term interest would likely head to 2% or 3%, and once they start rising, they’d “overshoot.” So, with a little overshoot, 10-year JGB yields might rise by 3 percentage points, to 3.6%. Still a very moderate interest rate, by historical standards. What would that do to the banking system?

The report tells us what it would do: megabanks would be severely damaged; the rest of the banking system would be wiped out. If there is a parallel stock market crash, the megabanks would be wiped out as well.

Nope but the point I was trying to make (rather poorly) was that recessions immediately follow collapses in margin credit. Market corrections usually see the top end (property) take a hit while the uber wealthy try to cover losses. Then you get the pensioners who loose a whack of their investment capital along with retirement income and so it trickless down the social chain.

Given the degree of difficulty the US economy is in any nudge in the wrong direction will be magnitudes greater than previous events. The rationale of QE has been to goose stocks to enable the wealth effect. Stock markets usually go arse up for a while when margin credit vanishes. That in effect will likely demolish any positives QE has been able to generate post GFC08.

The next 3 – 6 months will be interesting as corporate earning are revealed as BS. Corporate America is tanking big time. It's only survived this long because of cheap credit (share buy backs) and balance sheet hokus pokus. Corporates are at the end of their ability to goose their books. We are starting to see who has been swimming naked as markets dry up and anti American sentiment towards corrupt corporates gather momentum especially since Snowden's revelations. The backlash towards America from that alone could knock the US over as the BRIICS and Europeans develop measure to isolate US control and influence. Throw in a Chinese Saudi energy alliance as China becomes the largest importer of oil and the US is in deep doda.

The US dollars advantage as a reserve currency diminishes day by day and within 3 years will present serious issues for the US economy even if it retains reserve status. As the worlds trading blocks need for US$ to complete trade transactions diminishes (currently down to 60%)  there's going to be a lot of US$'s looking for a home and that will in all likelihood devalue the currency considerably.

Any foreign property investor who entered the US property market over the last 2 years and especially the last 12 months is almost certainly going to take a hit when any number of threats come home to roost.

Personally I hope your trip is not a success for the following reasons:

1. your buying at or near the top of the market
2. the AUD/USD pair is swinging in your favor (as a buyer)
3. as an international buyer you are making the mistake most make. Namely you are under capitalised. You need a minimum of five + properties to justify the costs and efficiencies needed for a partisan management team
4. the US credit bubble is near its peak again. When it pops is is almost always follwed by a property correction. See the below graphic.

I have repeatedly said the US market is a trap for the uninitiated. Anyone who buys sight unseen in a market they know diddly about is almost certain to be separated  from their money. This forum is full of well intentioned US market PI's who have been burned for far less. My guess is we will be adding your name to that list over the next 12 months unless you happen to be one of the few lucky ones who get every aspect of o'seas investing bang on.

Today's Chart of the Day comes by way of SocGen's Albert Edwards who in one image shows why, with gross debt issuance needs between budget funding and rolling maturities at 60% of GDP, Japan has no choice but "to print and print and print"

Pride comes at the bottom of the list. When you're starting out not going bust is the first, middle and last order of business. Pride reflects an emotional attachment to a project. Too much screws with your priorities and is the best way to go under.

What’s your budget/estimate for each component Joe?

I was over at a mates place the other week, he’s a builder, and he was redoing the bathrooms in a temporary place he’s bought between new houses. He was working on the upstairs bedroom at the time and we were discussing varying aspects of the fit out. He blew me off my feet when he said he’d charge at least $25k for this in main street.

I was looking at doing a complete reno of the old man’s bathroom (he’s 82) to make it more functional and accessible as he gets even more decrepit. I thought I’d be lucky to do it for $5k!!