Come on Ziv you can do better than that. The idea that the consumer increase in spending is a positive is a stretch. There's lotsa misleading MSM comment around both consumer spending and employment.

Consumer spending has been rising since 09.

Your bigger than normal bump is in anticipation of rising consumption taxes and was spent mostly on luxury goods. That good ol' 1% again spending their Abe bribe  money… The simple fact is if you spend heaps today you can't spend heaps tomorrow. Distortionary spending patterns don't do any long term good for the economy and it's extremely hard on business planning.

• Consumers started buying more after holding back since the global financial crisis that began in 2008, and the earthquake and tsunami disasters of March 2011. Household spending rose in the first four months of the year, gaining 5.2% in March. But a lull followed, with spending falling in three of the four months through August.

So the upshot here is that Sep's bump was on the back of a 4 month lull. The coming tax will probably see continued increases in spending as late spenders get in before the tax increase.

• Because of “rush-to-buy demand” before the sales tax goes up, the spending figures will likely strengthen even further in the coming months, said BNP Paribas Securities chief economist Ryutaro Kono.

While on the face of it all this may sound great. It's not as good as it's being pumped by mass media hype.

• However, many economists say the underlying spending trend remains somewhat weak, due in part to wages not rising.

As I've suggested several times. Japan is likely to see temporary lifts in economic numbers as the BOJ artificially juices the market and fiscal policy influences spending patterns in the short term

The unemployment figures are a joke. Unemployment rose in August to 4.1. Sep they're down to where they started. If you really want to talk about employment we can chat about the 1000's of salary men with the soul destroying window seat, the 10's of 1000's of underemployed who are parked in dead end jobs doing bugger all because companies can't fire them. Japan is as bad as France when it comes to dysfunctional IR laws. If companies could shed life sapping deadwood from their workforces the unemployment rate would be much much higher. Employment data out of Japan is on a par with the junk data out of the US.

When I read this comment I couldn't help but think how relevant it was to your poor old 99% of Japo's in the street..

"Well, in our country," said Alice, still panting a little, "you'd generally get to somewhere else — if you run very fast for a long time, as we've been doing."

    "A slow sort of country!" said the Queen. "Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"

JT I don't buy the speculation about future consumption levels. There's a lot of industry driven hype around this topic with an agenda to encourage investment and capital expenditure around coal based industries.

The simple fact is that over capacity has to be addressed even at current growth rates. The reality is demand may well stay flat for a decade or more as the Chinese curb over investment and address the over capacity issues.

Smog is now seen as a security issue and may prompt a more aggressive approach to curbing polluters.

And the harsher penalties are coming… (via English.cn) 

• Harsher punishments on polluters are needed to help improve air quality in China, a senior Chinese official said here on Tuesday
• Xie Zhenhua, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, told a press conference less use of coal and emission reduction for automobiles were also crucial to tackle air pollution.
•  He said increased air pollutants caused by growing social consumption of fossil fuels were the main cause of the worsening smog, which has severely affected people's health.
• Those who take irresponsible decisions that lead to severe environmental consequences need to be punished according to the law, he said.

Coal (thermal) is near it's peak I'm guessing. The Chinese are choking themselves to death on pollution and the rest of the world as well. In the scheme of things India takes bugger all. See graphic below for usage distribution.

Since this chart was released China has capped its use of thermal coal because of pollution so the graphic should show China's consumption as a fixed amount after 2014. China takes/uses around 50% of global production. 7% is coking coal for steel production. A pullback on consumption will hurt prices and keep the pressure on coal mining for the foreseeable future. I can't get excited about QLD as an investment opportunity. I think they will struggle in all respects for some time and that's without the world going pear shaped in the mean time.

From your fist link above;

–Japan Sep Avg Wages +0.1% Y/Y, 1st Rise in 3 Months: Aug -0.9

• this is a monthly average and doesn't elaborate on the trend

–Japan Sep Avg Base Wages -0.3% Y/Y, 16th Straight Drop

• base wages are falling on a long term trend.

–Japan Sep Overtime Pay +3.5% Y/Y; 6th Straight Rise; Aug +3.0%

• production is lifting on an expectation of rising consumption taxes

–Japan Sep Special Pay +6.4% Y/Y, 1st Rise in 2 Months; Aug -9.2%

• one offs that usually reflect share price movements etc. It's not clear who gets these payments

–Japan 2013 Summer Bonuses +0.3% Y/Y, 1st Rise in 3 Years

• only 40% actually got a rise

–Japan Sep Total Hours Worked -0.6% Y/Y, 2nd Straight Drop

• shrinking work force??

–Japan Sep Mfg Overtime Worked +7.0% Y/Y, 3rd Straight Rise

–Japan Sep Mfg Overtime Worked +0.4% M/M, 2nd Straight Rise

• tax rise induced lift in production

The trend is down no matter how much you want to try and dress it up. I expect to see unusual rises in production and O/T as consequences of incoming increases in consumption taxes. I mentioned it before that both NZ and AU experienced surges in demand and production prior to the introduction of GST. It simply brings forward consumption and leaves a vacuum behind it for some time after its introduction.

Outside of base wages bonuses do not tell the full story because they are distortionary. The data indicates the magnitude of a rise in bonuses but does not show who or how many got any rise at all. Insurance surveys indicate less than 40% actually got a rise at all. The remainder 11% no change 49% received lower bonuses indicates how the upper exec layers are receiving the bulk of all bonuses while the man in the street continues the steady decline in middle class wealth.

The next big theft comes next year when the consumption tax jumps from 5 – 8%. They expect to raise Y8T but then give back Y5T in stimulus. We all know who will get the most benefit from that stimulus package and it won't be Mr &Mrs Tojo

Some how this is being pitched as debt reduction –

Abe takes bold tax step towards cutting debt

Japanese PM vows to unveil five trillion yen stimulus package to cushion the impact of

raised sales tax to slash massive national debt

..and your typical crony transmission method,

Cushioning the tax-increase pain, yesterday's package features public-works spending for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and tax breaks to promote corporate capital spending. Officials will also consider an early end to a corporate tax add-on that has funded reconstruction following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, which would save companies 900 billion yen.

By the time you figure it out Ziv they'll have picked your pockets clean. They'll even take the holes.

Quote:

…Japanese corporations are compensating with bonuses and overtime, in order to satisfy shareholders and management

…what I said was that the reason they are not raising base wages is to satisfy stake holders.

When you make contradictory statements like this and then accuse me of misreading …… jeez! You should take up writing software manuals. Oh I forgot… your an ex IT manager. Well that explains it then… Silly me!

In terms of the inflation outlook for Japan this will be problematic. There is a belief that CB's can 'manage' inflation. The idea is almost laughable. CB's have only ever had limited success in this area. Anyone who thinks that after decades of deflation the BOJ has now discovered how to generate inflation and then control it is misguided to say the least. Experiments of this kind almost always produce unintended consequences.

If the BOJ gets inflation going how does it then stop it without cutting it's own throat? Volker had to raise rates to 21% in the mid 80's to get inflation back under 5%. How do you think the BOJ will fair when rates start heading off to the back and beyond. It's the scenario Bass and many others have alluded to.

QE coupled with inflation will strip the wealth of the 99% just as it is intended to.

I guess the corporate kleptocracy aren't listening to Abe much these days. As if they ever did. Political leaders tend to do what corporates want not the other way around.

Japan Salaries Extend Fall as Abe Urges Companies to Raise Wages

Japan's salaries extended the longest slide since 2010, even as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urges companies to raise workers’ wages as part of his bid to reflate the world’s third-largest economy.

Regular wages excluding overtime and bonuses fell 0.3 percent in September from a year earlier, marking a 16th straight month of decline, according to labor ministry data released today.

Bit like going to Canterbury Bankstown when the Bulldogs are playing