Freckle started the topic Will Japan be the trigger for the next Black Swan in the forum Opinionated! 11 years, 10 months ago
Japan is now in recession and the way things are developing it's starting look like a full blown crises is on the cards. Given the fragility of the global economic environment it's look more like Japan could be the catalyst for the next GFC. This doesn't mean that it could originate in Japan but that Japanese policy could trigger retaliatory…[Read more]
Freckle replied to the topic QLD property, take a loss or not? in the forum General Property 11 years, 10 months ago
Freckle replied to the topic QLD property, take a loss or not? in the forum General Property 11 years, 10 months ago
Interesting. I suspect the hotspotters and industry commentators actually facilitate growth in these 'left behind suburbs' simply because the primary drivers of suburb resurgence are investors following popularised opinion. This offers investors a way to look at and analyse such burbs given there are many precedents. For example you would only…[Read more]
Freckle replied to the topic QLD property, take a loss or not? in the forum General Property 11 years, 10 months ago
BigCubez wrote:
I've read that Redcliffe is tipped as a strong growth area over the coming years. Especially if your home is close to the water. I believe it is seen as an undervalued suburb at present.Reference???
QLD has a rising unemployment rate (6.2%) and is only topped by TAS at 7%. QLD is loosing jobs at the rate of 65/day. The Qld…[Read more]
Freckle replied to the topic Australia v USA Property Prices in the forum Opinionated! 11 years, 10 months ago
Nadeem Walayat (The Market Oracle) published this rather comprehensive article on the US housing market which I found quite interesting although I don't all together believe he has it nailed.
US House Prices Forecast Conclusion – As you read this, the embryonic nominal bull market of 2012 is morphing into a real terms bull market of 2013, with…[Read more]
Freckle replied to the topic QLD property, take a loss or not? in the forum General Property 11 years, 10 months ago
Nigel Kibel wrote:
However do not be afraid to get rid of a non performing asset. You have to look at the opportunity cost,
Ditto.
Entry + Hold + Exit + Hold for 4 more years. My guess is you're looking around the $100k mark. Now work out at what rate a property would have to appreciate at to get you to break even. In a best case…[Read more]
Freckle replied to the topic clueless start! in the forum Help Needed! 11 years, 10 months ago
mattsta wrote:
Won't it be a little bit crowdy? I, for instance, do not like to live too close to another house,It's now the norm Matty. Here in Mandurah WA all the new subdivision like to build houses almost on top of each other. I rent a 5yr old 4//2/2. If I stick my tongue out the window I can lick the boundary fence.
Claustrophobic to…[Read more]
Freckle replied to the topic Does this resemble anyone here? in the forum Forum Frolic 11 years, 10 months ago
Dubstep wrote:
Hi Freckle,
Jamie has admitted he's been smuggling her in for ages !
Wot my mom!!!
Freckle replied to the topic Does this resemble anyone here? in the forum Forum Frolic 11 years, 10 months ago
I need my space.
Freckle replied to the topic Does this resemble anyone here? in the forum Forum Frolic 11 years, 10 months ago
look I have standards alright!
Freckle replied to the topic Change of plans in the forum brendogs wrote:In all 11 years, 10 months ago
brendogs wrote:
In all seriousness, wilko1 thank you for that post it was probably the first one that has actually made me think of a few different options.One of the great challenges when you start out is not only the many and varied options you can develop but what is most often lacking is how to evaluate risk and match appropriate risk to…[Read more]
Freckle replied to the topic Change of plans in the forum Help Needed! 11 years, 10 months ago
wilko1 wrote:
Well to maximize his chances of winning the big one freckle he should put $50,000 on the lottery and then he's just increased his chances of winning by 1000That's improved the odds to 0.1111111111111111% Boy now you're talking!
Freckle replied to the topic Change of plans in the forum Help Needed! 11 years, 10 months ago
wilko1 wrote:
So what would you do? Some might say that's risky and you should save up the costs for the subdivision.
But in 2 years after you've saved up that money. How many opportunities would you have missed. Food for thought mateWilko
I often think that when I walk past the Lotto store. But then I say to myself well there's 100%…[Read more]
Freckle replied to the topic Change of plans in the forum Gazza21 wrote:Down 3.8% in 11 years, 10 months ago
Gazza21 wrote:
Down 3.8% in 2011 and 0.4% in 2012, does that mean the downward trend is slowing?Who knows Gazza. Nigel may be right but picking bottoms is notoriously difficult. I could buy his theory if their were some sound macro economic fundamentals to support his proposition but virtually everywhere you look you see economic contraction…[Read more]
Freckle replied to the topic Change of plans in the forum Help Needed! 11 years, 10 months ago
Nigel Kibel wrote:
The FreckleI do not agree with you. I believe most of the evidence shows that most markets across Australia have now bottomed. The great thing about being an investor is that you are not tied into any local market. As an example I believe that the Brisbane market is currently undervalued and there are still great…[Read more]
Freckle replied to the topic Change of plans in the forum Help Needed! 11 years, 10 months ago
Dwolfe wrote:
Having said that I disagree with having 200k in ur hand in 5 years as inflation will mean that the money you have now will be worth less in 5 years than it is now.JacM wrote:
Agreed DWolfe, $200k in 5 years from now will not buy what it can buy today. Let's say that today a chocolate bar costs one dollar. You can buy two…[Read more]Freckle replied to the topic The world has gone mental in the forum Forum Frolic 11 years, 10 months ago
That's alright. 2000 years ago in Rome a child wasn't considered to be alive (legally) until the father accepted it. If a father rejected a newborn it was literally thrown on the scrap heap. If he came back from military service and had not seen a somewhat grown child technically he could kill it without retribution.
When I got married (30 odd…[Read more]
Freckle replied to the topic Thoughts on 2013 property price rises in the forum General Property 11 years, 10 months ago
A theory developed by Nassim Taleb to explain:
The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of…[Read more]
Freckle replied to the topic Thoughts on 2013 property price rises in the forum General Property 11 years, 10 months ago
When Terry Ryder starts waffling about a great year 2013 will be you know we're doomed.
Economically it's bush fire season and the fire rating is extreme. All it'll take is one spark and look out if turns into a Black Swan event.
Freckle replied to the topic Thoughts on 2013 property price rises in the forum General Property 11 years, 10 months ago
Not really. I don't read the Kouk. Not enough economic brains to butter a cracker.
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